Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate
Urban areas and the supply networks that support their resource use are inherently multisectoral systems composed of infrastructural, environmental, and socio-institutional components. These systems are vulnerable to accelerating and interacting stresses from climate change, population growth, resource scarcity, and land-use pressure at the same time as they have a major influence on regional and global systems. For instance, a majority of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, food consumption, and economic activity can be attributed to urban areas. Urban areas are highly heterogenous, both across and within cities in terms of their socio-demographic, environmental, and infrastructural characteristics. This heterogeneity shapes how urban systems interact and co-evolve and contributes to different economic, environmental, and health outcomes for communities within urban areas. Urban heterogeneity also generates differential vulnerabilities to stressors and differential capacity for adapting to change. The evolution of urban space is thus critical in shaping how human societies respond to global change as they seek to improve resilience to stressors, support prosperous and equitable communities, and use natural resources in a sustainable manner. Developing fundamental scientific understanding of urban heterogeneity and system interactions across sectors and scales is critical for mapping the resilience, sustainability, and equity implications of alternative future pathways. On July 2021 the MSD Urban Systems Working Group organized this workshop to provide a venue for coordination and identification of shared objectives, research themes, and major knowledge gaps, as well as developing a shared strategy for addressing these gaps. This report summarizes the outcomes of this workshop.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one
Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory
Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves
We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Knowns, uncertainties, and challenges in agrivoltaics to sustainably intensify energy and food production
Not Available
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Considering Climate Change Scenarios in Site Resilience Planning
This paper was prepared in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program. The paper serves as a resource for site-level personnel who are performing energy and water resilience planning at their sites and who need to identify and incorporate data that may help them assess risks to infrastructure and operations as a result of future climate change impacts. Specifically, the paper is a high-level look at available scenarios of future climate that can be incorporated into assessments based on U.S. regional models.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Incorporating climate change into risk-informed resilience planning
In response to the development of portfolio-wide Climate Action Plans by federal agencies, federal sites are working to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their resilience assessments. However, it can be challenging to incorporate climate change scenarios into resilience assessments given the uncertainty inherent in climate change modeling. Incorporating these factors into a resilience plan requires an understanding of what the different climate scenarios mean, as well as how to estimate potential impacts of climate change on hazard occurrence on a regional, or even local, scale under different scenarios. We discuss approaches to incorporating this data into risk-informed resilience assessment processes, such as those implemented in the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program’s (FEMP) Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) and the Sustainability Performance Division’s (SPD) Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) Risk Assessment Tool. We also describe the climate scenarios and the availability of hazard data for site resilience planning, based on modeling included in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Climate Assessment (NCA), and state-level reports. We present examples from the TRN risk assessment and the VARP Risk Assessment Tool to illustrate how sensitivity analysis can be used to incorporate climate change projections into the resilience planning process.
Rabinowitz, Hannah S.↗
Exploring stages of resilience maturity as communities confront climate risks
Coastal communities are facing increased risks due to climate change, as evidenced by heightened shocks such as hurricanes and wildfires, and stressors including sea-level rise and drought. To confront these risks, many coastal communities are planning and designing their built environments in new ways, with the overall goal of increasing their resilience. However, resilience practices have been widely guided by an event-based timeframe, which may not be sufficient to confront the multiple and overlapping threats expected over the coming decades. To address this concern, this study investigated a long-term perspective on resilience progression, termed resilience maturity. To better understand resilience maturity in practice, this study drew directly on community perspectives, thereby identifying common challenges. Furthermore, variation in resilience maturity across communities provided an opportunity to identify existing successful strategies. Inductive qualitative analysis was used to examine perspectives from 15 interviews with local practitioners across 12 coastal communities. The analysis revealed that communities in early stages of resilience maturity often struggle with local stakeholder alignment and minimal dedicated resilience resources. In contrast, those further along the maturity path often face technology barriers and challenges in aligning regional stakeholders. Few examples of a fully mature resilience culture were found within the communities studied, underscoring systemic barriers to achieving advanced resilience maturity. Overall, these findings supported development of a practical framework for classifying community resilience efforts, identifying common obstacles, and informing localized resilience advancement.
Resilience maturity↗
Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change
Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Assessment of energy and thermal resilience performance to inform climate mitigation of multifamily buildings in disadvantaged communities
Not Available
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Changing Climate, Changing Data: Exposing Climate Data to New Users Through GeoPlatform.gov’s Resilience Community
Over 700 climate related datasets were curated by subject matter experts into 9 thematic areas as a part of the Climate Data Initiative (CDI). NASA was tasked with maintaining the collection’s data inventory and supporting web pages at data.gov/climate. Today, the Data Curation for Discovery (DCD) team at MSFC continues to support the CDI collection. In order to expose the collection to a new and growing user community, the DCD team has partnered with GeoPlatform.gov to develop the Resilience community. The Resilience community serves as an interactive, topically-focused web portal that further promotes and shares CDI web content, datasets, services, maps, and other tools relevant to global resilience and change. This poster focuses on the team’s efforts to leverage GeoPlatform’s semantic applications to link CDI objects within the platform to improve discoverability. This poster also provides insights as to how this effort may serve as an example for building and expanding future Geoplatform.gov communities..
Sisco, Adam↗
Use of Climate Change Projections for Resilience Planning in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and improve effective urban climate change governance. We compared the projections for RJ from the Eta Regional Climate Model from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research nested in two Hadley Center Global Climate Models (GCMs) (Eta-HadCM3 method and Eta-HadGEM2-ES method) and 33 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model dataset (Urban Climate Change Research Network - UCCRN method). The three methods showed increasing temperatures for RJ at the end of the century. Precipitation projections span a 13% decrease to a 12% increase when using the UCCRN method or are reduced between 0.4 and 0.5%, when using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES method. However, the middle range of the projections from UCCRN and Eta-HadGEM2-ES is similar. The three methods project an increase of warm days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights. Nevertheless, although the directions of change are the same applying the three methods, the magnitude differs when considering warm and cold nights. Hence, city stakeholders are better informed when we apply different projection methods as it gives them the opportunity to consider the level of risk they are willing to bear in the future. We observed that defining climate change projections on the city scale based on clear communication and an interactive process between scientists and stakeholders can be used to inform citywide adaptation strategies and sector-specific uses, as well as promote urban climate risk governance.
urban governance and management↗
Solarize Fairbanks BRITE: Facilitating Efficient, Resilient Homes in Cold Climates
Solarize Fairbanks began an annual Solarize campaign in the Interior Alaska city in 2020, located in IECC climate zone 8, with a goal to increase the number of solar PV panels in the community. The campaign provides peer support, education, bulk purchase discounts, and simplified installation of solar PV technologies for homes, businesses, and nonprofits. In 2021, the campaign began offering energy audits to building and homeowners with a bulk discount; however, building owners were responsible for pursuing next steps on their own. In 2022, a diverse team of local, state, and federal partners formed a team to create a process to further facilitate energy efficiency improvements alongside solar PV technology. The resulting project, Solarize Fairbanks - Building Resilience for the Interior (BRITE) aims to build out an efficiency component over 3 years. If implemented, it will be the first efficiency add-on to a solarize campaign in Alaska. In year one, the team conducted energy audits of four nonprofits located in the cold climate of Interior Alaska and is providing technical assistance and fundraising for the nonprofits to pursue the recommended retrofits. These audits provided insights on the types of retrofits that could be expected to increase efficiency, comfort, and resiliency of buildings, including LED lighting retrofits, increased envelope insulation, improved building controls, and air source heat pump technology. A pre- and post-retrofit analysis will provide further insight on the energy savings and other benefits of the retrofits. It will also inform the offerings in the following years of the BRITE add-on to Solarize campaigns. In this presentation, program implementers will review the past campaigns of Solarize Fairbanks, summarize the energy efficiency and resiliency analyses of the nonprofit buildings, cover future plans for Solarize Fairbanks BRITE, and provide recommendations for other communities pursuing similar programs.
Alaska↗
Oak Ridge National Laboratory FY 2023 Site Sustainability Plan With FY 2022 Performance Data
At the close of each fiscal year, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Sustainability Performance Division (SPD) issues guidance documents and technical resource aids/tools necessary for DOE sites and national laboratories to complete sustainability reporting requirements. SPD is part of the DOE Office of Asset Management. As required by DOE Order 436.1, Departmental Sustainability, “each site will develop and commit to an annual Site Sustainability Plan (SSP) that identifies its respective contribution toward meeting the DOE’s sustainability goals.” SPD collects and compiles information reported by each site to develop an agency-wide Sustainability Report and Implementation Plan, which is used to report DOE sustainability progress to the federal government as required by all major federal agencies. DOE launched a formal Sustainability Office and annual SSP process in 2011. Each year, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in concert with the Office of Science (SC), provides the resources essential to fulfill its commitment to deliver a complete and accurate SSP report and quality performance data for entry into the DOE Sustainability Dashboard as managed by SPD. The performance data entered by each DOE site are then combined to disclose the progress of each DOE Program Office and are further combined to show comprehensive progress for the agency. The Office of Asset Management provides assistance to program offices in sustaining their missions, freeing up resources by reducing waste, avoiding excess expenditure on utilities, maximizing productivity, and improving the efficiency of facilities and processes. By focusing on mission needs, programs and associated DOE sites can help the agency meet its sustainability goals, as outlined in federal statutory and regulatory requirements. In FY 2022, the SSP guidance was updated to capture requirements from Executive Order (EO) 14008, Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad, the Energy Act of 2020 (EAct 20), actions outlined in DOE’s Climate Adaptation & Resilience Plan and Sustainability Plan, and EO 14057, Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability. Updates in SSP guidance help to minimize and streamline reporting while simultaneously addressing updated federal requirements. Per DOE, each SSP report should provide an overview of the site’s planned actions, as well as an overview of efforts and accomplishments during the reporting period. SPD collects and compiles information reported by each site to develop DOE’s Annual Sustainability Report, Climate Adaptation & Resilience Plan, and Annual Energy Management Report to Congress. The agency goal has been to lower the reporting burden for sites and increase and improve the consistency of information available to decision makers, allowing them to better identify projects and potential for increased efficiency, as well as to reduce waste, lower emissions, and enhance operational resilience. Sites may elect to produce a more polished publication for their leadership and stakeholders, but this step is no longer required. The ORNL SSP narrative report (this document) and the reporting of DOE SPD Sustainability Dashboard performance data is a collaborative effort of approximately 30 subject matter experts (SMEs) from ORNL facility management and research divisions. Annually, these associates come together to provide a report that can be used by DOE to demonstrate continued agency progress in energy efficiency and sustainable federal operations.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Social Vulnerability and Beacon Hill Resilience Hub Network [Slides]
Improving community resilience to climate change impacts is a core goal of the Beacon Hill stakeholder task force. Developing a network of resilience hubs in the community is a strategy the task force is pursuing to build this resilience. This technical assistance aims to assist the task force in their resilience hub network planning by: identifying hazards that the resilience hubs may address; providing background information on social vulnerability and climate impacts; identifying populations in Beacon Hill who are at risk to disproportionate climate impacts due to social isolation and physical vulnerability characteristics (e.g., lack of transportation or internet); and identifying the potential role of resilience hubs that align with best practices for reducing social vulnerability to climate impacts.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Author Correction: Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves
Correction to: Scientific Datahttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03319-8, published online 23 May 2024 In this article the author’s name Marcelo Salles Olinger was incorrectly given as Marcello Salles Olinger. The original article has been corrected.
Machard, Anaïs↗