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At least 163 records · Page 9

A Simulated High CO 2 Spaceflight Environment Increases Plant Preference for Ammonium as a Nitrogen Source.

Future long-duration missions will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO 2 due to release of CO 2 by astronauts that is not completely scrubbed from the cabin, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) environments. Much focus has been given to changes in plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO 2 , but the effects of eCO 2 on nitrogen (N) uptake are poorly understood. Shoot nitrate reduction may be reduced at eCO 2 , likely due to less reductant available for nitrate reduction because of reduced photorespiration and increased carbon fixation 1. Relative growth rate can be reduced at eCO 2 when N is provided only as nitrate and can be unaffected when N is supplied as ammonium. However, N uptake in response to eCO 2 has, to our knowledge, not yet been studied. An increased ‘preference’ for plants to take up N as ammonium at eCO 2 could have important implications for growth in the space environment, where N is currently only supplied as nitrate. In this study, novel stable isotope approaches were used in conjunction with hydroponics and isotope ratio mass spectrometry to determine the effect of eCO 2 on N preference for ammonium or nitrate in spring barley and lettuce when both N forms are provided equally. Several varieties of spring barley displayed increased ammonium preference at eCO 2 (720 ppm) compared to ambient CO 2 (410 ppm), though this was not true for all varieties. In most cases, increases in ammonium preference were driven by increases in ammonium uptake at eCO 2 and not decreases in nitrate uptake. Current research is assessing whether similar responses are observed in the candidate space crop lettuce, at levels of CO 2 like those observed on ISS (3000 ppm), and these results will also be presented. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space environments and the selection of crop varieties adapted to eCO 2 environments. Plants adapted to ammonium nutrition may play a role in future plant-based bioregenerative life support systems with higher ammonium concentrations due to waste recycling. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO 2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security.

nitrogen↗

Plant Nitrogen Uptake Responses to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

Future long-duration missions will require a sustainable supply of food to support human crews. The spaceflight cabin environment often contains very high concentrations of CO 2 due to release of CO 2 by astronauts that is not completely scrubbed from the cabin, and it is therefore crucial to understand plant responses to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) environments. Much focus has been given to changes in plant photosynthetic and performance parameters in response to eCO 2 , but the effects of eCO 2 on nitrogen (N) uptake are poorly understood. Shoot nitrate reduction may be reduced at eCO 2 , likely due to less reductant available for nitrate reduction because of reduced photorespiration and increased carbon fixation 1. Relative growth rate can be reduced at eCO 2 when N is provided only as nitrate and can be unaffected when N is supplied as ammonium. However, N uptake in response to eCO 2 has, to our knowledge, not yet been studied. An increased ‘preference’ for plants to take up N as ammonium at eCO 2 could have important implications for growth in the space environment, where N is currently only supplied as nitrate. In this study, novel stable isotope approaches were used in conjunction with hydroponics and isotope ratio mass spectrometry to determine the effect of eCO 2 on N preference for ammonium or nitrate in spring barley and lettuce when both N forms are provided equally. Several varieties of spring barley displayed increased ammonium preference at eCO 2 (720 ppm) compared to ambient CO 2 (410 ppm), though this was not true for all varieties. In most cases, increases in ammonium preference were driven by increases in ammonium uptake at eCO 2 and not decreases in nitrate uptake. Current research is assessing whether similar responses are observed in the candidate space crop lettuce, at levels of CO 2 like those observed on ISS (3000 ppm), and these results will also be presented. This work will enable the development of optimized nutrient regimes for candidate crops in space environments and the selection of crop varieties adapted to eCO 2 environments. Plants adapted to ammonium nutrition may play a role in future plant-based bioregenerative life support systems with higher ammonium concentrations due to waste recycling. Moreover, this research will further our understanding of plant responses to the eCO 2 environment brought about by climate change, allowing the development of future-proof crops that will help to maintain food security.

nitrogen↗

Report series: finding of effect and mitigation documentation for the mercury solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system, area 23, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) proposes to install solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation arrays and an associated battery energy storage system (BESS) for the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (Figure 1). The purposes of the development of this facility are to support long-term efforts to modernize Mercury and to provide energy-resilient infrastructure and address climate adaptation needs. Because it is within the boundary of the Mercury Historic District (MHD), it is subject to the terms of the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA). An identification and evaluation report prepared for this undertaking determined that a contributing element to the MHD, the Mercury airstrip (26NY15777), is within the APE (Haynes 2024). The Mercury airstrip was developed following the closure of Camp Desert Rock in 1957 and used until late 1963 or 1964 when the Camp Desert Rock Airport was renovated, and the Mercury Bypass road constructed. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the MHD (SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Originally recorded in 2016, 26NY15777 was determined individually not eligible for listing in the NRHP because it lacked sufficient integrity to convey its significance (Palmer 2016). It was subsequently determined in 2018 to be a contributing element of the MHD in an architectural survey of the district (Palmer 2018) and identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element. However, as per Stipulation IV.B.2, because the airstrip had already been formally evaluated and determined not to be individually eligible for the NRHP in consultation with the SHPO, this categorization was an error. NNSA/NFO reported this to the SHPO in Haynes 2024 and the SHPO concurred on June 11, 2024 (Reed). Accordingly, the airstrip is a Category II Property for the purposes of complying with the Mercury PA. The Mercury airstrip is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Jaegermeyr, Jonas↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Ahamed, Aakash↗

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

remote sensing↗

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Zhao, Chuang↗

SERVIR: Leveraging the Expertise of a Space Agency and a Development Agency to Increase Impact of Earth Observation in the Developing World

SERVIR is a joint initiative of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), in collaboration with leading technical organizations around the world-- called SERVIR hubs--that serve and empower developing countries to use satellite data addressing critical challenges in food security and agriculture; water and water-related disasters; land cover, land use and ecosystems; and weather and climate. Over the past fourteen years, the program has worked with stakeholders in 50 countries across the world, partnered with 390 institutions, and generated and shared over 70 products from 27 satellites and sensors. In that process, around 7,400 specialists have been trained in the application of Earth observation data and technology. In its lifetime, SERVIR has been agile and innovative in shifting from what was essentially an incubator for testing and deploying Earth observation science and technology to making co-development the hallmark of its work, exemplified by both South-South and North-South scientific collaborations. SERVIR’s approach has embodied the concept that to solve really big problems, big, creative solutions are needed. SERVIR represents the world working together to address environmental challenges using spaced-based and geospatial technologies. Aligning with the very meaning of SERVIR, i.e. “to serve,” the program continues to be demand-driven in developing and deploying services (versus one-off products) which address development challenges using geospatial tools and Earth observation science. In 2016, as part of SERVIR’s evolution, USAID and NASA released the ‘SERVIR Service Planning Toolkit,’ a guidance document which provides a framework for how geospatial services can be used to tackle development challenges in a sustained manner. Since then, the Service Planning Toolkit’s systematic approach has begun to catch on in other Earth observation efforts. To improve access and use, SERVIR launched a Service Catalogue in February 2019, a searchable collection of demand-driven geospatial services that use Earth observations to support decision making. SERVIR implementing hub partners –include SERVIR-West Africa at the Agrometeorology, Hydrology and Meteorology (AGRHYMET) Regional Center, in Niamey, Niger; SERVIR-Eastern & Southern Africa at the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development in Nairobi, Kenya; SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Kathmandu, Nepal; SERVIR-Mekong at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center in Bangkok, Thailand; and SERVIR’ -Amazonia, at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Cali, Colombia.

Searby, Nancy D.↗

Improving Drought Monitoring for the Middle East and North Africa Region via Data Assimilation Using the NASA Land Information System (LIS)

Food and water security become an increasingly pressing concern for countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under climate change. Droughts are among the most important issues facing this region in both economic and social terms, which have become much more severe in recent decades. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is, therefore, critical to support drought impact assessment and risk management. This presentation describes the effort to improve the simulation of hydrological conditions for such semi-arid environment by Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) via assimilating remotely sensed leaf area index and soil moisture in the presence of irrigation. Multi-source satellite evapotranspiration products are used to evaluate the model performance under the impact of the choice of met-forcings, the presence of irrigation and data assimilation. The improved model configuration is aimed to deliver a better soil moisture estimation for the composite drought indicator (CDI) for drought monitoring and to provide a better initial condition in support for hydrological drought forecasting.

Wanshu Nie↗

Privacy Preservation from High-Performance Computing to Autonomous Science [Industrial and Governmental Activities]

High-Performance Computing (HPC) and Leadership-Class Supercomputing are driving forces behind scientific advancements, enabling researchers to tackle complex challenges in physics, chemistry, biology, and engineering. These systems power vast simulations and data analyses, fueling discoveries in fields ranging from materials science to climate modeling. However, their use often involves processing sensitive data—such as proprietary industry simulations, biomedical records, and national security computations—posing significant privacy concerns. In conclusion, this issue is amplified in collaborative environments like Department of Energy (DOE) user facilities, where HPC resources are shared across institutions to foster innovation.

Kotevska, Olivera [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

Modeling commercial-scale CO 2 storage in the gas hydrate stability zone with PFLOTRAN v6.0

Abstract. Safe and secure carbon dioxide (CO2) storage is likely to be critical for mitigating some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. In the last decade, there has been a significant increase in activity associated with reservoir characterization and site selection for large-scale CO2 storage projects across the globe. These prospective storage sites tend to be selected for their optimal structural, petrophysical, and geochemical trapping potential. However, it has also been suggested that storing CO2 in reservoirs within the CO2 hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), characterized by high pressures and low temperatures (e.g., Arctic or marine environments), could provide a natural thermodynamic barrier to gas leakage. Evaluating the prospect of commercial-scale, long-term storage of CO2 in the GHSZ requires reservoir-scale modeling capabilities designed to account for the unique physics and thermodynamics associated with these systems. We have developed the HYDRATE flow mode and the accompanying fully implicit parallel well model in the massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport simulator PFLOTRAN to model CO2 injection into the marine GHSZ. We have applied these capabilities to a set of CO2 injection scenarios designed to reveal the challenges and opportunities for commercial-scale CO2 storage in the GHSZ.

carbon storage↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-SJ2 Saskatchewan - Western Boreal, Jack Pine forest harvested in 2002

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-SJ2 Saskatchewan - Western Boreal, Jack Pine forest harvested in 2002. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-SJ2 Saskatchewan - Western Boreal, Jack Pine forest harvested in 2002 produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - 53.944737° N, 104.649340° W, BERMS flux and climate measurements to begin by Mar 2003

Barr, Alan [Global Institute for Water Security, U↗

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

flood↗

Spinoff 2010

Topics covered include: Burnishing Techniques Strengthen Hip Implants; Signal Processing Methods Monitor Cranial Pressure; Ultraviolet-Blocking Lenses Protect, Enhance Vision; Hyperspectral Systems Increase Imaging Capabilities; Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management; Tail Rotor Airfoils Stabilize Helicopters, Reduce Noise; Personal Aircraft Point to the Future of Transportation; Ducted Fan Designs Lead to Potential New Vehicles; Winglets Save Billions of Dollars in Fuel Costs; Sensor Systems Collect Critical Aerodynamics Data; Coatings Extend Life of Engines and Infrastructure; Radiometers Optimize Local Weather Prediction; Energy-Efficient Systems Eliminate Icing Danger for UAVs; Rocket-Powered Parachutes Rescue Entire Planes; Technologies Advance UAVs for Science, Military; Inflatable Antennas Support Emergency Communication; Smart Sensors Assess Structural Health; Hand-Held Devices Detect Explosives and Chemical Agents; Terahertz Tools Advance Imaging for Security, Industry; LED Systems Target Plant Growth; Aerogels Insulate Against Extreme Temperatures; Image Sensors Enhance Camera Technologies; Lightweight Material Patches Allow for Quick Repairs; Nanomaterials Transform Hairstyling Tools; Do-It-Yourself Additives Recharge Auto Air Conditioning; Systems Analyze Water Quality in Real Time; Compact Radiometers Expand Climate Knowledge; Energy Servers Deliver Clean, Affordable Power; Solutions Remediate Contaminated Groundwater; Bacteria Provide Cleanup of Oil Spills, Wastewater; Reflective Coatings Protect People and Animals; Innovative Techniques Simplify Vibration Analysis; Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics; Verification Tools Secure Online Shopping, Banking; Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems; Framework Resources Multiply Computing Power; Tools Automate Spacecraft Testing, Operation; GPS Software Packages Deliver Positioning Solutions; Solid-State Recorders Enhance Scientific Data Collection; Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion; Composite Sandwich Technologies Lighten Components; Cameras Reveal Elements in the Short Wave Infrared; Deformable Mirrors Correct Optical Distortions; Stitching Techniques Advance Optics Manufacturing; Compact, Robust Chips Integrate Optical Functions; Fuel Cell Stations Automate Processes, Catalyst Testing; Onboard Systems Record Unique Videos of Space Missions; Space Research Results Purify Semiconductor Materials; and Toolkits Control Motion of Complex Robotics.

Source record↗

An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe climate Risks”

The history of this Special Issue (https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10JD7LNJNQ0) indirectly dates back to the early 1990s, when the signature of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicked-off an international political process based on one overarching and foundational principle: to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” at the global level. More than three decades later, such a principle remains central, though complementary aims made their way through the climate negotiation process, such as the importance of ensuring equity and justice, to give just one example here. Scientific knowledge also considerably progressed and we know more about the range of risks that climate change imposes and will continue to impose to the biosphere and humankind, worldwide and at all territorial levels. It is also clear that societal responses to these risks —“climate adaptation” as we know it— are increasingly happening, but definitely not at the pace of climate risk trends (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021, Erisken et al., 2021, Olazabal and Ruiz De Gopegui, 2021, Magnan et al., 2023a, Reckien et al., 2023, UNEP, 2023). As a result, concerns have emerged over the recent years in both the scientific and policy arenas around the idea that societies may not be able to address all climate risks, and that limits to adaptation and induced residual risks need to be considered more seriously. Such concerns further highlight the continuing importance of the imperative to minimise dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, at any scale. But what does “dangerous interference” mean? How can we decide that we are entering the “dangerous” space, compared to a broader range of climate risks that would qualify as problematic but not necessarily “dangerous”? Who should make such a decision? Which conditions drive risk severity over time, including in the future? And what would be the environmental, economic, social and cultural implications of prioritising some climate risks over others? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a pioneer in addressing such questions through the development of the “Key Risks” framing that describes those climate risks having the potential to become dangerous or “severe” over the course of this century (Schellnhuber et al., 2006, Schneider et al., 2007, Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). The Fifth and Sixth assessment cycles (AR5 and AR6) went a step further by identifying about 120 Key Risks across regions and sectors, and clustering them into 8 “Representative Key Risks” covering a range of geographical systems (low-lying coasts, and to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems), sectors (critical infrastructure, living standards, human health, food security, and water security) and human dimensions (peace and mobility) (Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). This Special Issue was born of the efforts of a range of authors, during the development of the IPCC AR6 main Assessment Report between 2019 and 2022, to characterise Key Risks and Representative Key Risks, and advance knowledge on what shapes “severe climate risks” conceptually as well as in the real-world. The series of papers forming this Special Issue is not intended to cover the topic exhaustively, but rather to give readers an overview through the following narrative: defining “severe climate risks” is highly challenging (Magnan et al., 2023b), but knowledge is expanding on the driving climate hazards (Tebaldi et al., 2023) and their implications on geographical systems, sectors and human dimensions, using here food security (Mirzabaev et al., 2023), human mobility (Gilmore et al., 2024) and peace (Buhaug et al., 2023) as illustrative examples. The overall intention is to support especially decision-makers, whatever the scale or sector considered, in asking severity-driven questions to identify sector- and context-specific “priority” risks from climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.

Fisher, Joshua B.↗

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗