Results for “climate variability” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for EMSL Project 60929 from October 2023: PI Goemann MONet Request

Just as humans rely on a healthy gut microbiome for resilience to illness, plants rely on a healthy root microbiome for resilience to environmental abiotic stress (heat, drought). To achieve a healthy root microbiome, plants release carbon (C)-rich compounds as root exudates to stimulate microbial activity and increase local nutrient mineralization. However, the enhanced performance comes at a cost: up to 44% of a plant’s C can be lost to root exudates, diverting C from plant growth and respiration. Critical knowledge gaps include how the ‘C cost’ is managed and how root exudates alter the microbiome under different environmental conditions. In addition, historical climate conditions, particularly mean annual precipitation, is known to shape local soil microbiomes and alter their sensitivity to drought. Therefore, studies that better characterize the plant-microbe responses to environmental stress will aid in efforts to harness the microbiome to improve crop resilience. However, current knowledge gaps make it challenging to engineer beneficial plant-microbe interactions to improve plant productivity in agricultural systems and to predict how increased climate variability will alter terrestrial C fluxes and climate feedbacks. To fill this knowledge gap our research group at Montana State University – Bozeman is currently studying blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis), a prairie grass native across the Northern Great Plains, as a model for drought tolerance. Our goal is to investigate the above- and belowground responses of blue grama to drought and heat stress to improve our understanding of stress-induced carbon allocation and plant-microbe interactions. Most recently, we investigated the influence of climate history on the blue grama drought response. We collected soil from three blue grama-dominated sites (those proposed to sample here) across a 150 mm mean annual precipitation gradient in SW Montana, USA, to use as inoculum for a greenhouse drought experiment. Preliminary results indicate that soil climate history has a strong influence on the blue grama physiological response to drought as well as on the chemical composition of root exudates and rhizosphere microbiome composition. Metabarcoding data from this experiment is scheduled to be submitted to public databases within the next year. Having in-depth analyses of the soil biogeochemistry and metagenomic composition through the MONet project at each of the field sites associated with this experiment will allow us to link underlying ecological processes with observed patterns of plant growth and productivity at each site. In addition, we plan to utilize the MONet database for future meta-analyses to compare the genomic and biogeochemical signatures of our field sites to others across a wider precipitation gradient throughout the native range of blue grama. This will further provide critical insights into the mechanisms that drive ecosystem functioning and resilience to drought stress.

Peyton, Brent↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Mesoscale and Frontal-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions and Influence on Large-Scale Climate: A Review

Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fire, dust, air and water: Improving aerosol biogeochemistry interactions in ACME. Final report

Aerosol-biogeochemistry interactions will have important consequences for human health, ecosystem services, and climate feedbacks over the next several decades. In this proposal we seek to link how human activities on land, including direct industrial emissions and landscape fires, impact the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the ocean and land. Our overall goal was to complement existing work at DOE labs to improve the capability and performance of the E3SM model in short-term, high-resolution projections of climate. Projections of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon are highly dependent on the details of the ocean physical and biogeochemistry parameterizations. Potentially equally important are the estimates of increases in iron and soluble nitrogen deposition in aerosols to the open ocean, but there are substantial uncertainties in these feedbacks. The E3SM land model simulates natural and anthropogenic fires, but improvement is needed to more accurately simulate fire responses to climate variability as well as fire contributions to terrestrial climate feedbacks. This proposal addressed four of the six priorities within the ACME/E3SM call by improving the representation of fire, industrial combustion sources, and desert dust and adding iron and soluble iron to the atmospheric chemistry (1). Our work focused on improving ocean biogeochemistry and the response of the oceans to anthropogenic atmospheric iron and nitrogen (3). We also improved the representation of land disturbance on fires and fire mediated carbon cycle feedbacks in the land model (4). Finally we had planned to couple the land, atmosphere and ocean biogeochemical systems (6) and explore how this coupling changes the feedbacks in the climate system. Our work under this proposal was separated into the following 5 tasks: i) improve representation of fire dynamics in both boreal and tropical ecosystems, ii) improve estimates of industrial emissions of iron and phosphorus, iii) improve representation of atmospheric iron, phosphorus and nitrogen transport, chemistry and deposition, iv) improve representation of iron, phosphorus and nitrogen deposition impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, and v) couple emissions into atmosphere, to deposition onto land and ocean biogeochemistry. For all 5 tasks, we conducted offline experiments of the historical period to enable comparison with available aerosol and land surface observations. We had planned to conduct fully coupled simulations, however, these will be conducted as part of the coupling in version 3 and 4 of the E3SM model, and thus have not been completed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Local adaptation of switchgrass drives trait relations to yield and differential responses to climate and soil environments

Abstract Switchgrass, a potential biofuel crop, is a genetically diverse species with phenotypic plasticity enabling it to grow in a range of environments. Two primary divergent ecotypes, uplands and lowlands, exhibit trait combinations representative of acquisitive and conservative growth allocation strategies, respectively. Whether these ecotypes respond differently to various types of environmental drivers remains unclear but is crucial to understanding how switchgrass varieties will respond to climate change. We grew two upland, two lowland, and two intermediate/hybrid cultivars of switchgrass at three sites along a latitudinal gradient in the central United States. Over a 4‐year period, we measured plant functional traits and biomass yields and evaluated genotype‐by‐environment (G × E) interaction effects by analyzing switchgrass responses to soil and climate variables. We found substantial evidence of G × E interactions on biomass yield, primarily due to deviations in the response of the southern lowland cultivar Alamo, which produced more biomass in hotter and drier environments relative to other cultivars. While lowland cultivars had the highest potential for yield, their yields were more variable year‐to‐year compared to other cultivars, suggesting greater sensitivity to environmental perturbations. Models comparing soil and climate principal components as explanatory variables revealed soil properties, especially nutrients, to be most effective at predicting switchgrass biomass yield. Also, positive correlations between biomass yield and conservative plant traits, such as high stem mass and tiller height, became stronger at lower latitudes where the climate is hotter and drier, regardless of ecotype. Lowland cultivars, however, showed a greater predisposition to exhibit these conservative traits. These results suggest switchgrass trait allocation trade‐offs that prioritize aboveground biomass production are more tightly associated in hot, dry environments and that lowland cultivars may exhibit a more specialized strategy relative to other cultivars. Altogether, this research provides essential knowledge for improving the viability of switchgrass as a biofuel crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Glacial fluctuations in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination and implications for tropical climate following the Last Glacial Maximum

The tropics are a dynamic component of the global climate system and exert a profound influence on modern climate variability. Yet the role of the tropics in past climate changes, for example during the last glacial termination, is uncertain. This uncertainty is due in part to the relative paucity of terrestrial temperature records from the tropics, which hinders efforts to understand the mechanisms that influenced deglacial warming and abrupt climate events. Tropical glaciers are sensitive to changes in climate, and mapping and dating past tropical glacial fluctuations provides a valuable record of terrestrial climate changes in the low latitudes. We report a chronology of past glacial extents in the Rwenzori Mountains of Uganda (0.3°N, 29.9°E) based on 51 beryllium-10 ( 10 Be) surface-exposure ages from three separate glacial catchments. Results indicate that Rwenzori glaciers retreated considerably during Heinrich Stadial 1. The rate of net glacial recession slowed between ~15 and 11 ka, although glaciers continued to retreat during this period. Rwenzori glaciers then retreated more rapidly during the early Holocene. The Rwenzori glacial chronology is broadly similar to glacial chronologies reconstructed elsewhere in East Africa and in tropical South America. We suggest that this similarity may reflect coherent, tropics-wide temperature fluctuations during the last deglaciation. We report that the Rwenzori glacial chronology provides crucial information on the global footprint of deglacial warming and abrupt climate events and, thus, the potential mechanisms that influenced tropical climate during the last glacial termination.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Climate Patterns Using Clustering Autoencoder Techniques

Abstract The complexity of growing spatiotemporal resolution of climate simulations produces a variety of climate patterns under different projection scenarios. This paper proposes a new data-driven climate classification workflow via an unsupervised deep learning technique that can dimensionally reduce the vast volume of spatiotemporal numerical climate projection data into a compact representation. We aim to identify distinct zones that capture multiple climate variables as well as their future changes under different climate change scenarios. Our approach leverages convolutional autoencoders combined with k -means clustering (standard autoencoder) and online clustering based on the Sinkhorn–Knopp algorithm (clustering autoencoder) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to capture unique climate patterns in a data-driven fashion from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with GOLD component (GFDL-ESM2G). The developed approach compresses 70 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation at 0.125° spatial resolution across the CONUS under multiple warming scenarios to a lower-dimensional space by a factor of 660 000 and then tested on 150 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation data. The results show that five climate clusters capture physically reasonable and spatially stable climatological patterns matched to known climate classes defined by human experts. Results also show that using a clustering autoencoder can reduce the computational time for clustering by up to 9.2 times when compared to using a standard autoencoder. Our five unique climate patterns resulting from the deep learning–based clustering of the lower-dimensional space thereby enable us to provide insights on hydrometeorology and its spatial heterogeneity across the conterminous United States immediately without downloading large climate datasets. Significance Statement This paper presents a data-driven climate classification approach using unsupervised deep learning to dimensionally reduce climate model outputs and to identify distinct climate regions for their future changes. Our approach compresses climate information for 70 years of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model data across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 0.125° spatial resolution. The results reveal that five climate clusters capture reasonable and stable climatological patterns matched to known climate patterns. The embedded clustering process in deep learning provides ×9.2 times faster execution than the k -means clustering technique. These results give us insight about climate spatial patterns and heterogeneity of hydrological patterns across the conterminous United States without downloading large climate datasets.

Kurihana, Takuya↗