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At least 163 records · Page 9

Features of mid- and high-latitude low-level clouds and their relation to strong aerosol effects in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2)

The E3SMv2 model, like various other global models that include representations of aerosol–cloud interactions, uses an empirically chosen lower bound on the simulated in-cloud cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to help constrain the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, ERFaer. This study identifies where ultra-low CDNCs (i.e., concentrations lower than 10 cm−3) occur in the stratiform and shallow convective clouds simulated by E3SMv2 and which of the occurrences have the strongest impact on ERF aer . Process-level analyses are presented to reveal characteristics of the cloud droplet formation and removal processes associated with impactful ultra-low CDNCs. Simulations performed with present-day emissions show that ultra-low CDNCs are most frequently found over the mid- and high-latitude oceans in both hemispheres, while the occurrences are also frequent in polluted continental regions despite the high aerosol concentrations. Ultra-low CDNCs with the largest impacts on the simulated regional and global mean ERF aer are found in the lower troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes. These cases are typically associated with large cloud fractions, strong water vapor condensation, weak turbulence, and lack of cloud droplet nucleation from aerosol activation. Under such atmospheric conditions, boosting aerosol activation and enhancing turbulent mixing of cloud droplet number can increase the simulated CDNCs, although the magnitude of the global mean ERF aer increases undesirably. The reason for this model behavior is discussed. Overall, our study suggests that mid- and high-latitude low-level stratus occurring under weak turbulence is a cloud regime worth further investigating for the purpose of identifying and addressing the root causes of ultra-low CDNCs and strong ERF aer in E3SM.

Aerosol-Cloud Interaction↗

Biological enhancement of cloud droplet concentrations observed off East Antarctica

Abstract The impact that biogenic emissions have on aerosol-cloud interactions across the Southern Ocean is poorly quantified. Here we use satellite and ship observations during austral summer to study these interactions. We present observational evidence that biogenic aerosols increase cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplet number concentrations over the Southern Ocean off East Antarctica, coinciding with very low concentrations of ice-nucleating particles and higher occurrences of supercooled liquid-containing low-level clouds.

Mallet, Marc D.↗

A new technique to retrieve aerosol vertical profiles using micropulse lidar and ground-based aerosol measurements

Accurately characterizing the vertical distribution of aerosols and their cloud-forming properties is crucial for understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and their impact on climate. This study presents a novel technique for retrieving vertical profiles of aerosols, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particles (INP) by combining micropulse lidar, radiosonde, and ground-based aerosol measurements. Herein, the technique is applied to data collected by our team at Texas A&M University during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. Ground-based aerosol size distribution and CCN counter data are used to estimate the value of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, κ. The derived κ, together with Mie scattering theory and the relative humidity profile from the radiosonde, is used to estimate aerosol size growth and the associated increase in backscatter at each altitude. We then correct the lidar backscatter to dry conditions to produce the dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile. The dry aerosol backscatter coefficient profile is linearly scaled to collocated surface measurements of aerosols, CCN, and INP to produce corresponding vertical profiles. Combining lidar backscatter profiles with aerosol and cloud nucleation measurements leads to a more realistic representation of vertical distributions of aerosol properties. The method could be readily applied to lidar measurements in future field campaigns.

Chen, Bo [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (↗

Marine Shallow Cloud Adjustments to the Presence of Shortwave-Absorbing Aerosols: Advancing Understanding Through a Combined Analysis of Lasic Datasets and Process Modeling (Final Report)

This is a final report for this award, whose purpose was to support the analysis of data emanating from the LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interaction with Clouds) campaign. (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) is a strategy to improve our understanding of aged carbonaceous aerosol, its seasonal evolution, and the mechanisms by which clouds adjust to the presence of the aerosol. The observational strategy centers on deploying the AMF1 cloud, aerosol, and atmospheric profiling instrumentation to Ascension Island, located within the trade-wind shallow cumulus regime (14.50W, 80S) 3000 km offshore of continental Africa. The location is within the latitude zone of the maximum outflow of aerosol, with the deepening boundary layer known to entrain free-tropospheric smoke. The primary activities for LASIC are: 1) to improve current knowledge on aged biomass burning aerosol and its radiative properties as a function of the seasonal cycle; 2) to use surface-based remote sensing to sensitively interrogate the atmosphere for the relative vertical location of aerosol and clouds; 3) to improve our understanding of the cloud adjustments to the presence of shortwave-absorbing aerosol within the vertical column, both through aerosol-radiation and through aerosol-cloud interactions; 4) to aid low cloud parameterization efforts for climate models. This award serves to further these activities and includes a sub-award to Dr. Pablo Saide at UCLA for activities 3) and 4).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Greater Houston's Aerosol by Air Mass During TRACER

During the TRacking Aerosol and Convection interaction ExpeRiment (TRACER), a suite of aerosol and cloud measurements were made using the Texas A&M Rapid Onsite Atmospheric Measurement Van (ROAM-V) mobile instrument platform. Joint ROAM-V/radiosonde deployments focused on sampling polluted marine and continental air masses to understand summertime convection along and across the sea-breeze front as it propagated through Houston. The polluted marine air mass at Seawolf Park, Galveston, TX was defined by two characteristic aerosol populations. Although the background total particle concentrations averaged 2,500 cm −3 , the air mass was also influenced by frequent but irregular periods of ship emission with significantly higher aerosol concentrations at times exceeding 34,000 cm −3 . Ship emission influenced periods, typically lasting <10 min, contained smaller, less hygroscopic particles resulting in a 69% relative decline in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activated fraction at 1% supersaturation compared to background periods. Measurements in continental air masses northwest of Houston revealed an average aerosol concentration of 5,208 cm −3 with a κ value near 0.1 reasonably describing the CCN population, independent of particle size. In continental air masses, substantial differences in particle size and CCN activation over small distances (<42 miles between sites) suggest considerable site-to-site variability in addition to the expected day-to-day differences. This small-scale variability makes it difficult to generalize continental air mass aerosol properties. Both coastal and inland locations had effective ice nucleating particles, but inland deployments observed the warmest nucleation temperature at −15.6°C compared to −17.8°C close to the coast. These measurements can reduce uncertainties in regional convection allowing models to improve understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of aerosol optical properties to the aerosol size distribution over central Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using the WRF-Chem v.3.9.1.1 coupled model

The size distribution of atmospheric aerosols plays a key role for understanding and quantifying the uncertainties related to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These interactions ultimately depend on the size distribution through optical properties (such as aerosol optical depth, AOD) or cloud microphysical properties. Hence, the main objective of this contribution is to disentangle the impact of the representation of aerosol size distribution on aerosol optical properties over central Europe, particularly over the Mediterranean Basin, during a summertime aerosol episode. To fulfill this objective, a sensitivity test has been conducted using the coupled chemistry–meteorology model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model coupled with Chemistry). The test modified the parameters defining a lognormal size distribution (geometric diameter and standard deviation) by 10 %, 20 %, and 50 %. Results reveal that the reduction in the standard deviation of the accumulation mode leads to the largest impacts on AOD due to a transfer of particles from the accumulation mode to the coarse mode. A reduction in the geometric diameter of the accumulation mode also has an influence on AOD representation since particles in this mode are assumed to be smaller. In addition, an increase in the geometric diameter of the coarse mode produces a redistribution through the total size distribution by relocating particles from the finer modes to the coarse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Larger Cloud Liquid Water Enhances Both Aerosol Indirect Forcing and Cloud Radiative Feedback in Two Earth System Models

Previous studies have noticed that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with a stronger cooling from aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) also have an enhanced warming from positive cloud feedback, and these two opposing effects are counter-balanced in simulations of the historical period. However, reasons for this anti-correlation are less explored. In this study, we perturb the cloud ice microphysical processes to obtain cloud liquid of varying amounts in two Earth System Models (ESMs). We find that the model simulations with a larger liquid water path (LWP) tend to have a stronger cooling from ACI and a stronger positive cloud feedback. More liquid clouds in the mean-state present more opportunities for anthropogenic aerosol perturbations and also weaken the negative cloud feedback at middle to high latitudes. This work, from a cloud state perspective, emphasizes the influence of the mean-state LWP on effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERF ACI ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Water Chemistry and Aerosol Processing: Assessing the Hydroxyl Radical Burst in Newly Formed Cloud Droplets (Field Campaign Report)

Aerosol particles are tiny liquid or solid particles in the atmosphere, ranging in size from a few nanometers to several micrometers in diameter. Aerosol-cloud interactions are the most uncertain aspect of the climate system, and models routinely underpredict aerosol particle formation. Clouds are well known to alter aerosol size, chemical composition, and radiative properties, but the processes are poorly characterized. Organics and sulfates are the most abundant materials in particles, and for each of these there are significant gaps in the understanding of the role of clouds in their formation and/or aging. Many of the cloud processes are driven by aqueous chemistry that depends on hydroxyl (OH) radicals, the subject of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗

Measurement report: A comparison of ground-level ice-nucleating-particle abundance and aerosol properties during autumn at contrasting marine and terrestrial locations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an essential class of aerosols found worldwide that have far-reaching but poorly quantified climate feedback mechanisms through interaction with clouds and impacts on precipitation. These particles can have highly variable physicochemical properties in the atmosphere, and it is crucial to continuously monitor their long-term concentration relative to total ambient aerosol populations at a wide variety of sites to comprehensively understand aerosol–cloud interactions in the atmosphere. Hence, our study applied an in situ forced expansion cooling device to measure ambient INP concentrations and test its automated continuous measurements at atmospheric observatories, where complementary aerosol instruments are heavily equipped. Using collocated aerosol size, number, and composition measurements from these sites, we analyzed the correlation between sources and abundance of INPs in different environments. Toward this aim, we have measured ground-level INP concentrations at two contrasting sites, one in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region of the United States with a substantial terrestrially influenced aerosol population and one in the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean (ENA) region with a primarily marine-influenced aerosol population. These measurements examined INPs mainly formed through immersion freezing and were performed at a ≤ 12 min resolution and with a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures (Ts above −31 °C) for at least 45 d at each site. The associated INP data analysis was conducted in a consistent manner. We also explored the additional offline characterization of ambient aerosol particle samples from both locations in comparison to in situ data. From our ENA data, on average, INP abundance ranges from ≈ 1 to ≈ 20 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −20 °C) during October–November 2020. Backward air mass trajectories reveal a strong marine influence at ENA with 75.7 % of air masses originating over the Atlantic Ocean and 96.6 % of air masses traveling over open water, but analysis of particle chemistry suggests an additional INP source besides maritime aerosols (e.g., sea spray aerosols) at ENA. In contrast, 90.8 % of air masses at the SGP location originated from the North American continent, and 96.1 % of the time, these air masses traveled over land. As a result, organic-rich SGP aerosols from terrestrial sources exhibited notably high INP abundance from ≈ 1 to ≈ 100 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) during October–November 2019. The probability density function of aerosol surface area-scaled immersion freezing efficiency (ice nucleation active surface site density; ns) was assessed for selected freezing temperatures. While the INP concentrations measured at SGP are higher than those of ENA, the ns(T) values of SGP (≈ 105 to ≈ 107 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) are reciprocally lower than ENA for approximately 2 orders of magnitude (≈ 107 to ≈ 109 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C). The observed difference in ns(T) mainly stems from varied available aerosol surface areas, Saer, from two sites (Saer,SGP > Saer,ENA). INP parameterizations were developed as a function of examined freezing temperatures from SGP and ENA for our study periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance of pumped counterflow virtual impactors to study aerosol interactions with laboratory generated warm clouds

Pumped Counterflow Virtual Impactors (PCVI) are designed to separate aerosols based on aerodynamic diameter, which is particularly useful for isolating cloud droplets and ice crystals from smaller particles. However, the PCVI transmission efficiency (TE) values reported in the literature show considerable variability, and little information is available on the TEs for cloud liquid droplets. Here, we determined the optimal flow conditions for PCVI sampling for different activation ratios from the MTU Pi-cloud chamber, highlighting the conditions that maximize droplet residual sampling while minimizing interstitial transmission. Even for a lower limit cloud activation ratio = 1:10, an add flow of 1.5 LPM achieves a residual fraction greater than 0.80, with a droplet TE of ∼15% for typical Pi-Chamber droplets with diameters between 3.5 to 10 µm. This framework can be adapted for field cloud measurements based on the cloud conditions of interest. TE for cloud droplets under flow conditions at which ∼99% of the unactivated submicron particles were removed was substantially lower between 8 and 16% than for supermicron dry particles (∼30 to 40% for 3 µm polystyrene latex spheres). In addition, we conducted a comparison of the performances of three similar PCVI units to assess repeatability for dry aerosols and cloud droplets. All three PCVIs performed similarly in rejecting submicron particles smaller than the desired cutoff diameter. One of the units showed lower TEs due to a misalignment of the internal orifice. We discuss a procedure that improved alignment and performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying albedo susceptibility biases in shallow clouds

The evaluation of radiative forcing associated with aerosol–cloud interactions remains a significant source of uncertainty in future climate projections. The problem is confounded by the fact that aerosol particles influence clouds locally and that averaging to larger spatial and/or temporal scales carries biases that depend on the heterogeneity and spatial correlation of the interacting fields and the nonlinearity of the responses. Mimicking commonly applied satellite data analyses for calculation of albedo susceptibility S o , we quantify S o aggregation biases using an ensemble of 127 large eddy simulations of marine stratocumulus. We explore the cloud field properties that control this spatial aggregation bias and quantify the bias for a large range of shallow stratocumulus cloud conditions manifesting a variety of morphologies and ranges of cloud fractions. We show that S o spatial aggregation biases can be on the order of hundreds of percent, depending on the methodology. Key uncertainties emanate from the typically applied adiabatic drop concentration N d retrieval, the correlation between aerosol and cloud fields, and the extent to which averaging reduces the variance in cloud albedo A c and N d . So biases are more often positive than negative and are highly correlated with biases in the liquid water path adjustment. Temporal aggregation biases are shown to offset spatial aggregation biases. Both spatial and temporal biases have significant implications for observationally based assessments of aerosol indirect effects and our inferences of underlying aerosol–cloud–radiation effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of marine organic aerosols as sources of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles on high-latitude mixed-phase clouds

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in high-latitude regions and have important impacts on the surface energy budget and regional climate. Marine organic aerosol (MOA), a natural source of aerosol emitted over ~70 % of Earth's surface, may significantly modify the properties and radiative forcing of mixed-phase clouds. However, the relative importance of MOA as a source of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in comparison to mineral dust, and MOA's effects as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and INPs on mixed-phase clouds are still open questions. In this study, we implement MOA as a new aerosol species into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmosphere component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), and allow the treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions of MOA via droplet activation and ice nucleation. CAM6 reproduces observed seasonal cycles of marine organic matter at Mace Head and Amsterdam Island when the MOA fraction of sea spray aerosol in the model is assumed to depend on sea spray biology but fails when this fraction is assumed to be constant. Model results indicate that marine INPs dominate primary ice nucleation below 400 hPa over the Southern Ocean and Arctic boundary layer, while dust INPs are more abundant elsewhere. By acting as CCN, MOA exerts a shortwave cloud forcing change of -2.78 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral summer. By acting as INPs, MOA enhances the longwave cloud forcing by 0.35 W m-2 over the Southern Ocean in the austral winter. The annual global mean net cloud forcing changes due to CCN and INPs of MOA are -0.35 and 0.016 W m-2, respectively. These findings highlight the vital importance for Earth system models to consider MOA as an important aerosol species for the interactions of biogeochemistry, hydrological cycle, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biomass burning and marine aerosol processing over the southeast Atlantic Ocean: a TEM single-particle analysis

This study characterizes single-particle aerosol composition from filters collected during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017) campaigns. In particular the study describes aged biomass burning aerosol (BBA), its interaction with the marine boundary layer and the influence of biomass burning (BB) air on marine aerosol. The study finds evidence of BBA influenced by marine boundary layer processing as well as sea salt influenced by BB air. Secondary chloride aerosols were observed in clean marine air as well as in BB-influenced air in the free troposphere. Higher-volatility organic aerosol appears to be associated with increased age of biomass burning plumes, and photolysis or oxidation may be a mechanism for the apparent increased volatility. Aqueous processing and interaction with the marine boundary layer air may be a mechanism for the presence of sodium on many aged potassium salts. By number, biomass burning potassium salts and modified sea salts are the most observed particles on filter samples. The most commonly observed BC coatings are inorganic salts. These results suggest that atmospheric processes such as photolysis, oxidation and cloud processing are key drivers in the elemental composition and morphology of aged BBA. Fresh BBA inorganic salt content, as it has an important role in the particles' ability to uptake water, may be a key driver in how aqueous processing and atmospheric aging proceed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Sensitivities of Biomass-Burning Aerosol Chemical Aging, Sulfate Formation, and Cloud Droplet Activation in the Southeastern Atlantic Using CESM and E3SM

Biomass-burning smoke drives large uncertainty in climate projections of the Earth's radiative balance. This is due to the chemical and physical evolution of smoke and its impact on clouds and radiation. Here we focus on the southeastern Atlantic region and its inflow of African biomass-burning smoke during August 2017. We evaluate smoke properties and processes in two coupled earth-system models, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). These are compared against in situ aircraft observations from two field campaigns, ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) and CLoud–Aerosol–Radiation Interaction and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017). Observations reveal an increase and subsequent decrease in smoke mean diameter, and a steady decrease in the mass ratio of organic aerosol (OA) to black carbon aerosol (BC) (OA:BC) over 4–12 days of aging, neither captured by the base models. Implementation of a photolytic loss scheme for secondary organic aerosol (SOA)—as a proxy for other heterogeneous volatilization chemistry—and a ∼1-day conversion for primary OA to SOA significantly improves the representation of this loss. In the boundary layer, both models show dimethyl sulfide driving a large increase in the sulfate aerosol mass fraction from the free troposphere, which is consistent with observations. Finally, models tend to underpredict cloud droplet number concentration partially due to weak modeled turbulent updraft strength, and model performance improves when the parameterized turbulent updraft strength is increased substantially. These results are expected to provide insights into future model development to reduce climate model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Learned implicit representations of aerosol chemistry and physics for enhancing the predictability of water cycle extreme events

Focal Area(s): Focal area 2: Predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; and Focal area 3: physics-guided AI. Science Challenge: Comprehensive models of many geophysical processes require a large number of state variables, disqualifying them for inclusion in Earth System Models (ESMs) for the foreseeable future. This white paper proposes the paradigm shift from the use of state variables representing explicit physical quantities to the use of machine-learning to create and integrate a compact, implicit representation of a physical system with a smaller number of state variables. As an initial application, we propose to create parsimonious machine-learned surrogate models of gas- and aerosol-phase chemistry and physics with the purpose of improving the accuracy of the representation of cloud formation and cloud-aerosol interaction in the E3SM model. This type of improved representation of cloud microphysics is critical for enhancing the predictability of water cycle extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗