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Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Sorghum Phenotyping and Trait Development Platform

There is an urgent need to accelerate energy crop development for the production of renewable transportation fuels from biomass. Our interdisciplinary team developed mobile, ground-based and aerial phenotyping platforms and advanced remote sensing data analysis tools to acquire and process imagery from different types of cameras (e.g. RGB, multispectral, hyperspectral, and thermal sensors) and LiDAR point cloud data in large-scale sorghum field trials during phase 1 of the project. Phase 2 focused on Technology to Market activities to deliver these systems to the market place coupled with targeted research programs to address specific limitations or challenges for these systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

Vertical Structure and Ice Production Processes of Shallow Convective Postfrontal Clouds over the Southern Ocean in MARCUS. Part I: Observational Study

A study of the vertical structure of postfrontal shallow clouds in the marine boundary layer over the Southern Ocean is presented here. The central question of this two-part study regards cloud phase (liquid/ice) of precipitation, and the associated growth mechanisms. In this first part, data from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign are analyzed, starting with a 75-h case with continuous sea surface-based thermal instability, modest surface heat fluxes, an open-cellular mesoscale organization, and very few ice nucleating particles (INPs). The clouds are mostly precipitating and shallow (tops mostly around 2 km above sea level), with weak up- and downdrafts, and with cloud-top temperatures generally around –18° to –10°C. Further, the case study is extended to three other periods of postfrontal shallow clouds in MARCUS. While abundant supercooled liquid water is commonly present, an experimental cloud-phase algorithm classifies nearly two-thirds of clouds in the 0° to –5°C layer as containing ice (cloud ice, snow, or mixed phase), implying that much of the precipitation grows through cold-cloud processes. The best predictors of ice presence are cloud-top temperature, cloud depth, and INP concentration. Measures of convective activity and turbulence are found to be poor indicators of ice presence in the studied environment. The water-phase distribution in this cloud regime is explored through numerical simulations in Part II. Significance Statement: Climate models generally predict a lower albedo than observed over the Southern Ocean, and this is largely attributed to a lack of cloudiness, especially in the postfrontal cold sector of midlatitude cyclones. This in turn may be due to an excess of ice in these simulated clouds, resulting in rapid precipitation fallout and an overly brief cloud lifespan. The objective of this study is to examine whether shallow postfrontal clouds over the Southern Ocean are dominated by supercooled drops, or by snow and ice, using data collected by a U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility deployed aboard an Australian Antarctic supply vessel. We find that these clouds contain much supercooled liquid, even though cloud-top temperatures generally are around –18° to –8°C, and that about two-thirds of the clouds just above the freezing level contain ice. Much of the precipitation appears to grow through cold-cloud processes above the freezing level, rather than drizzle/rain. Updrafts and/or turbulence in convection or in cloud-top generating cells do not initiate much ice, compared to observations elsewhere in a similar temperature range. This may be attributable to the extremely low concentration of ice nucleating particles in this environment. Ultimately, the deepest clouds with the coldest cloud tops are most likely to be ice dominated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Point Cloud Based Mapping of Understory Shrub Fuel Distribution, Estimation of Fuel Consumption and Relationship to Pyrolysis Gas Emissions on Experimental Prescribed Burns

Forest fires spread via production and combustion of pyrolysis gases in the understory. The goal of the present paper is to understand the spatial location, distribution, and fraction (relative to the overstory) of understory plants, in this case, sparkleberry shrub, namely its degree of understory consumption upon burn, and to search for correlations between the degree of shrub consumption to the composition of emitted pyrolysis gases. Data were collected in situ at seven small experimental prescribed burns at Ft. Jackson, an army base in South Carolina, USA. Using airborne laser scanning (ALS) to map overstory tree crowns and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize understory shrub fuel density, both pre- and postburn estimates of sparkleberry coverage were obtained. Sparkleberry clump polygons were manually digitized from a UAV-derived orthoimage of the understory and intersected with the TLS point cloud-derived rasters of pre- and postburn shrub fuel bulk density; these were compared in relation to overstory crown cover as well as to ground truth. Shrub fuel consumption was estimated from the digitized images; sparkleberry clump distributions were generally found to not correlate well to the overstory tree crowns, suggesting it is shade-tolerant. Moreover, no relationship was found between the magnitude of the fuel consumption and the chemical composition of pyrolysis gases, even though mixing ratios of 25 individual gases were measured.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien↗

UAS remote sensing (Autel EVO II platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery and derived products (Level 0-2 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a optical red-green-blue (RGB) sensor installed on an Autel EVO II unoccupied aerial system (UAS). This package includes data from 15 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM64, and Teller MM27 sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska USA, in July 2022. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors, and Level 1-2 processed products including digital surface models (DSM), photo orthomosaics, canopy height models (CHM) and digital terrain models (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as image (*.jpg, *.tif), point cloud (*.laz), tabular (*.csv) and *.pdf formats. Raw images are compressed as tar.gz. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the data and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

UAS remote sensing (Autel EVO II platform): Red-green-blue (RGB) imagery and derived products (Level 0-2 data), Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2023

Airborne remote sensing data collected using a optical red-green-blue (RGB) sensor installed on an Autel EVO II unoccupied aerial system (UAS). This package includes data from 4 flights flown over the NGEE-Arctic Council Mile Marker (MM) 71 and Teller MM27 sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska USA, in July 2023. This package provides the Level 0 (raw, unprocessed) data collected by the platform and sensors, and Level 1-2 processed products including digital surface models (DSM), photo orthomosaics, canopy height models (CHM) and digital terrain models (DTM). Ancillary aircraft data, flight mission parameters, and general flight conditions provided by the onboard flight and data collection computers are also included. Data and metadata are provided as image (*.jpg, *.tif), point cloud (*.laz), tabular (*.csv) and *.pdf formats. Raw images are compressed as tar.gz. The metadata documents contain flight campaign, platform, sensor, flight and file metadata, along with a description of the data and file naming scheme.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High concentrations of ice: Investigations using polarimetric radar observations combined with in situ measurements and cloud modeling (Final Report)

This DOE-funded joint project had the over-arching goal of understanding the reasons for observed size distributions of ice particles in cold clouds. Its approach involves the use of cloud models and field observations by radar and aircraft of real storms. The project addresses three major research objectives: (1) Utilize a novel polarimetric radar technique to retrieve size distributions and amounts of ice from radar data collected during the previous DOE ARM field campaigns; (2) Evaluate the results of ice microphysical retrievals using available in situ aircraft measurements and other remote sensors (e.g., vertically pointing cloud radars and wind profilers); (3) Improve the treatment of microphysical processes leading to cloud glaciation and ice multiplication in numerical cloud models. The study was performed by three research organizations: University of Oklahoma, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, and Lund University, Sweden. The Israel and Swedish partners were funded by the sub-awards from the University of Oklahoma. Cloud modeling studies have been performed by the research teams at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ) and Lund University to identify the origins of high concentrations of cloud ice in areas of high ice water content (HIWC). The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) with full spectral bin microphysics and the Lund University aerosol-cloud (AC) model with a hybrid bin / bulk microphysics scheme complementing HUCM were utilized for simulations. Both research teams had particular focus on secondary ice production (SIP) as one of the possible sources of enhanced ice concentration. The HUJ group suggested a novel concept of ice multiplication during droplet freezing. It is assumed that splintering and droplet fragmentation during droplet freezing takes place because of dendritic growth within a supercooled drop. The resulting simulations of SIP generated small ice in concentrations exceeding hundreds per liter similar to what was observed in the HIWC regions of the tropical storms. The Lund team explored the SIP mechanisms such as breakup of ice particles due to ice-ice collisions and ice sublimation that are expected to dominate the continental storms. They also quantified the impact of homogeneous nucleation of cloud droplets on the total number concentration of ice at very low temperatures near the tops of the clouds. Additionally, the Lund AC model is able to simulate the effect of aerosols of various types (including biological) on the cloud life cycle and the corresponding ice production. The HUCM / AC model was used to simulate one of the “golden” cases of the DOE MC3E campaign on 20 May 2011. The model output was converted into the fields of polarimetric radar variables using the polarimetric radar forward operator developed at the University of Oklahoma and compared with radar observations and in situ microphysical measurements onboard research aircraft. It was demonstrated that specific differential phase KDP is the best radar parameter to identify the HIWC areas and quantify the corresponding ice parameters. For the first time, the shape of the vertical profile of KDP was realistically reproduced by the cloud model with the KDP maximum in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) centered at the -15°C isotherm. The University of Oklahoma team has developed a methodology for polarimetric radar retrievals of such microphysical parameters of ice as ice water content (IWC), mean volume diameter (Dm), and total number concentration (Nt) of ice particles. These retrievals have been validated using in situ aircraft measurements during 6 field campaigns and proved to be quite robust and reliable. This allowed to build the first climatology of the vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables and retrieved microphysical parameters for the three types of weather systems: continental MCSs, maritime MCSs, and tropical cyclones / hurricanes (Hu and Ryzhkov 2022). The data were collected by a multitude of the WSR-88D radars in 13 continental and 10 maritime MCSs and 11 landfalling hurricanes. The HIWC areas were identified within the examined storms and the corresponding “HIWC statistics” was compared with the “background” one without HIWC. An overarching conclusion of the study is that maritime tropical storms (MCSs and hurricanes) are characterized by smaller size ice in higher concentration compared to the continental MCSs. High ice water content in the HIWC areas is primarily caused by a strong jump in a number concentration of ice particles rather than the increase of their size compared to the “background” environment. This may point to the homogeneous nucleation of excessive amounts of supercooled droplets and / or secondary ice production as the possible origins of HIWC. Such a climatology provides a good observational reference for the modelers to evaluate the performance of their models. As an example, the in-depth analysis of the 20 May 2011 MC3E case shows that the advanced cloud models developed in the course of this study still tend to underestimate the number concentration of ice in the HIWC areas although they succeed in reproducing realistically looking vertical profiles of IWC and Nt. The results of the project research are summarized in 13 journal papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Kinematics reconstruction in solenoidal spectrometers operated in active target mode

Here, we discuss the reconstruction of low-energy nuclear reaction kinematics from charged-particle tracks in solenoidal spectrometers working in Active Target Time Projection Chamber mode. In this operation mode, reaction products are tracked within the active gas medium of the Active Target with a three dimensional space point cloud. We have inferred the reaction kinematics from the point cloud using an algorithm based on a linear quadratic estimator (Kalman filter). The performance of this algorithm has been evaluated using experimental data from nuclear reactions measured with the Active Target Time Projection Chamber (AT-TPC) detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long- and short-term temporal variability in cloud condensation nuclei spectra over a wide supersaturation range in the Southern Great Plains site

Abstract. When aerosol particles seed the formation of liquid water droplets in the atmosphere, they are called cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Different aerosols will act as CCN under different degrees of water supersaturation (relative humidity above 100 %), depending on their size and composition. In this work, we build and analyze a best-estimate CCN spectrum product, tabulated at ∼ 45 min resolution, generated using high quality data from seven independent instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site. The data product spans a large supersaturation range, from 0.0001 % to ∼ 30 %, and time period of 5 years, from 2009–2013, and is available on the ARM data archive. We leverage this added statistical power to examine relationships that are unclear in smaller datasets. Our analysis is performed in three main areas. First, probability distributions of many aerosol and CCN metrics are found to exhibit skewed log-normal distribution shapes. Second, clustering analyses of CCN spectra reveal that the primary drivers of CCN differences are aerosol number size distributions, rather than hygroscopicity or composition, especially at supersaturations above 0.2 %, while also allowing for a simplified understanding of seasonal and diurnal variations in CCN behavior. The predictive ability of using limited hygroscopicity data with accurate number size distributions to estimate CCN spectra is investigated, and the uncertainties of this approach are estimated. Third, the dynamics of CCN spectral clusters and concentrations are examined with cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that CCN concentrations change rapidly on the timescale of 1–3 h, with some conservation beyond that which is greatest for the lower supersaturation region of the spectrum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

Arctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short-term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel-Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lyα Observations of Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) Using MAVEN IUVS Echelle

The close approach of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) to Mars in 2014 October provided a unique opportunity to observe a dynamically new Oort cloud comet with potential for interaction with a planet’s atmosphere. The water-originating hydrogen coma of the comet extended to over 20 million km from the nucleus. Determining the properties of this coma contributes to characterizing the comet’s water content and production rate. The present study analyzes a unique data set of high spectral resolution UV observations of comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring measured by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft. The Siding Spring observations capture Lyα emissions from the Martian corona, the interplanetary medium, as well as the cometary H and D reservoirs. The isolated cometary spectra are analyzed to reveal a velocity distribution of H atoms that are consistent with model estimates of H{sub 2}O photodissociated H emissions and of OH photodissociated H emissions, Doppler shifted from the main comet H emission line center by 18 km s{sup −1} and 8 km s{sup −1}, respectively. The variations in comet H brightness with distance from the nucleus are used to constrain cometary water production to a rate of 0.5 × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1} at a time when Siding Spring was at 1.5 au, pre-perihelion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Search of the Full Six Years of the Dark Energy Survey for Outer Solar System Objects

We present a search for outer solar system objects in the 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The DES covered a contiguous 5000 deg 2 of the southern sky with ≈80,000 3 deg 2 exposures in the grizY filters between 2013 and 2019. This search yielded 812 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), one Centaur and one Oort cloud comet, 458 reported here for the first time. We present methodology that builds upon our previous search on the first 4 yr of data. All images were reprocessed with an optimized detection pipeline that leads to an average completeness gain of 0.47 mag per exposure, as well as improved transient catalog production and algorithms for linkage of detections into orbits. All objects were verified by visual inspection and by the “sub-threshold significance,” the signal-to-noise ratio in the stack of images in which its presence is indicated by the orbit, but no detection was reported. This yields a pure catalog complete to r ≈ 23.8 mag and distances 29 < d < 2500 au. The TNOs have minimum (median) of 7 (12) nights’ detections and arcs of 1.1 (4.2) yr, and will have grizY magnitudes available in a further publication. We present software for simulating our observational biases for comparisons of models to our detections. Initial inferences demonstrating the catalog’s statistical power are: the data are inconsistent with the CFEPS-L7 model for the classical Kuiper Belt; the 16 “extreme” TNOs (a > 150 au, q > 30 au) are consistent with the null hypothesis of azimuthal isotropy; and nonresonant TNOs with q > 38 au, a > 50 au show a significant tendency to be sunward of major mean-motion resonances.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Improving the prediction of DNI with physics-based representation of all-sky circumsolar radiation

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is often interpreted differently in ground measurements and forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias in DNI forecasting especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To mitigate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to conduct physics-based simulations of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The DNI is quantified using the sum of the radiation along the sun direction and the scattered radiation within the circumsolar region. FARMS-DNI is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to predict day-ahead DNI in 9-km pixels over an extended domain covering the contiguous United States. The DNI forecasts for the entire year of 2018 are validated using surface-based observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites and a satellite-based solar radiation product developed by the procedure of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The results show that the WRF-Solar coupled with the conventional Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law underestimes the overall DNI forecasts by 30%-60%, which is a joint effect of the uncertainties in computing the circumsolar radiation and forecasting cloud properties. This bias is significantly reduced by using FARMS-DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗

Geospatial Data Workflow Orchestration and Architecture

In an era characterized by explosive growth in geospatial data, the selection of appropriate technologies for data storage, processing, and orchestration is critical for organizations aiming to maintain competitive advantages. This white paper provides a comprehensive analysis of how Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has effectively employed various cloud technologies, including containerized applications, container orchestrators, and workflow orchestrators, to develop robust geospatial data processing solutions. We explore the fundamental concepts behind these technologies and compare multiple deployment models tailored to diverse use cases. Our findings conclude that while Kubernetes has emerged as the preferred platform for truly scalable and fault-tolerant production workflows, the choice of workflow orchestration tool requires careful consideration of team needs, pipeline complexity, and deployment environments. This paper aims to serve as a strategic guide for organizations leveraging geospatial data, articulating the balance between technology choices and practical implementation to enhance workflow efficacy and scalability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗