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NASA NTRS2014

Exit Presentation Fall 2013

Our current International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ISS PRA) model assumes all collisions between a visiting vehicle (VV) and the ISS result in worst case loss of the ISS crew and the vehicle (LOCV). Drawing results from the Mir-Progress collision, we know this assumption is inaccurate because that collision did not lead to LOCV. Therefore the PRA team is conducting a study to determine the likelihood of LOCV when a collision occurs between a VV and the ISS. Kinetic energy is calculated and converted to pounds of TNT for the moving VVs when they collide with the ISS. Different scenarios are evaluated to obtain collision related data such as translational kinetic energy and rotational kinetic energy. These calculated data are integrated into the results from the expert elicitation performed on the Mir- Progress collision. As a result of this study, the PRA model will now calculate the probability of a VV collision with ISS, the probability that collision will result in Loss of Soyuz Crew (LOC) or Loss of ISS Crew and Vehicle (LOCV).

Yang, Qi Rong↗

NASA NTRS1990

Risk assessment methodologies for target fragments produced in high-energy nucleon reactions

Collisions of energetic protons with target nuclei yield nuclear products of large linear energy transfer, and it is usually assumed that the energy of the heavy products is absorbed locally with a quality factor of 20. Past methods of risk assessment have relied on the Bertini (1969) model to evaluate the nuclear reaction products. If the Q(F) of 20 is correct, then a significant underestimate of biological risk from the nuclear products could result from the use of Bertini's model. On the other hand, a Q(F) of 20 is probably too large for some of the lighter fragments, leaving prior risk estimates as possibly correct or even conservative. This issue is discussed here in the context of the recently proposed nuclear data set of Wilson et al. (1989).

Shinn, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Metrics on Predictive Probability of Collision Assessments Reliant on Object State Updates

The probability of collision (Pc) metric is the dominant method of risk charac-terization for evaluating satellite close approaches, and has become of particular interest following major debris production incidents. However, confidence in the use of Pc for actionability has been questioned due in part due to its non-intuitive and often significant corrections following messaging updates. This paper assesses predictively computed probabilities and confidence bounds on Pc values corresponding to orbit determination updates by comparing these predic-tive values to observed operational values. This paper also presents use cases for this methodology in assessing event actionability.

conjunction assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗

NASA NTRS2015

Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.

Assessment↗

NASA NTRS2011

Engineering and Technology Challenges for Active Debris Removal

After more than fifty years of space activities, the near-Earth environment is polluted with man-made orbital debris. The collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009 signaled a potential collision cascade effect, also known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the environment. Various modelling studies have suggested that the commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be sufficient to stabilize the future debris population. Active debris removal must be considered to remediate the environment. This paper summarizes the key issues associated with debris removal and describes the technology and engineering challenges to move forward. Fifty-four years after the launch of Sputnik 1, satellites have become an integral part of human society. Unfortunately, the ongoing space activities have left behind an undesirable byproduct orbital debris. This environment problem is threatening the current and future space activities. On average, two Shuttle window panels are replaced after every mission due to damage by micrometeoroid or orbital debris impacts. More than 100 collision avoidance maneuvers were conducted by satellite operators in 2010 to reduce the impact risks of their satellites with respect to objects in the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog. Of the four known accident collisions between objects in the SSN catalog, the last one, collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009, was the most significant. It was the first ever accidental catastrophic destruction of an operational satellite by another satellite. It also signaled the potential collision cascade effect in the environment, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome," predicted by Kessler and Cour-Palais in 1978 [1]. Figure 1 shows the historical increase of objects in the SSN catalog. The majority of the catalog objects are 10 cm and larger. As of April 2011, the total objects tracked by the SSN sensors were more than 22,000. However, approximately 6000 of them had yet to be fully processed and entered into the catalog. This population had been dominated by fragmentation debris throughout history. Before the anti-satellite test (ASAT) conducted by China in 2007, the fragmentation debris were almost all explosion fragments. After the ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, the ratio of collision fragments to explosion fragments was about one-to-one. It is expected that accidental collision fragments will further dominate the environment in the future.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

NASA NTRS2006

Notional Airspace Operations Demonstration Plan

The airspace operations demonstration (AOD) is intended to show that the Access 5 Step 1 functional requirements can be met. The demonstration will occur in two phases. The initial on-range phase will be carried out in restricted airspace to demonstrate the cooperative collision avoidance (CCA) functional requirements and to provide risk-reduction for the AOD by allowing the test team to rehearse some elements of the demonstration mission. The CCA system to be used in these flights is based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) which is a commercially-available system by which airplanes constantly broadcast their current position and altitude to other aircraft and ground resources over a dedicated radio datalink. The final phase will occur in the national airspace (NAS) and will be the formal demonstration of the remainder of the proposed functional requirements. The general objectives of the AOD are as follows: (1) Demonstrate that the UAS can aviate in the NAS (2) Demonstrate that the UAS can navigate in the NAS (3) Demonstrate that the UAS can communicate with the NAS (4) Demonstrate that the UAS can perform selected collision avoidance functions in the NAS (5) Demonstrate that the UAS can evaluate and avoid weather conflicts in the NAS (6) Demonstrate that the UAS can provide adequate command and control in the NAS In addition to the stated objectives, there are a number of goals for the flight demonstration. The demo can be accomplished successfully without achieving these goals, but these goals are to be used as a guideline for preparing for the mission. The goals are: (1) Mission duration of at least 24 hours (2) Loiter over heavy traffic to evaluate the data block issue identified during the Access 5 Airspace Operations Simulations (3) Document the contingency management process and lessons learned (4) Document the coordination process for Ground Control Stations (GCS) handoff (5) Document lessons learned regarding the process of flying in the NAS Preliminary planning for a notional mission to achieve the objectives and goals has been prepared. The planning is intended to serve as a guide for detailed planning of the AOD.

Trongale, Nicholas A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Guit, Bill↗

NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua & Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

Operational collision avoidance↗

NASA NTRS2013

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OSIRIS-REx Conjunction Screenings: Earth Gravity Assist and Earth Return Analysis and Results

The NASA OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission performed an Earth gravity assist on September 22, 2017, and returned to Earth to drop off the sample on September 24, 2023. In each case, the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team screened the OSIRIS-REx trajectories against the satellite catalog in search of high-risk close approaches. This paper describes the preparation for collision avoidance and screening results, along with lessons learned, providing a baseline for support of future missions in this category, particularly as space traffic around the Earth and in cis-lunar space continues to rapidly expand.

Dolan E. Highsmith↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OSIRIS-REx Conjunction Screenings: Earth Gravity Assist and Earth Return Analysis and Results

Dolan Highsmith↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of The Interaction of Space Tethers with Catalogued Space Objects

The potential for collisions or close passes with other space objects presents a significant issue for many space tether applications, representing a potential risk both to the integrity of the tether system and t o the safety of other spacecraft. Potential collisions between tethers and other space objects may be possible to avoid if close encounters can be predicted with sufficient precision and advance notice. In order to provide a method for predicting the frequency with which a tether must be maneuvered to avoid collisions, and to provide a resource for accurate close-encounter prediction during tether flight experiments, we have developed a software tool that compares the trajectory of a tether object with that of all of the objects in the NORAD space catalogue. In this paper we describe the models and algorithms used in this tool, and discuss results of test cases conducted to predict the close-encounter frequency of a tether systems ranging from a short nanosatellite-based tether experiment to a hundred-kilometer long MXER tether system.

Bonometti, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2018

Differential Adaptive Stress Testing of Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems

The next-generation Airborne Collision Avoidance System (ACAS X) is currently being developed and tested to replace the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) as the next international standard for collision avoidance. To validate the safety of the system, stress testing in simulation is one of several approaches for analyzing near mid-air collisions (NMACs). Understanding how NMACs can occur is important for characterizing risk and informingdevelopment of the system. Recently, adaptive stress testing (AST) has been proposed as a way to find the most likely path to a failure event. The simulation-based approach accelerates search by formulating stress testing as a sequential decision process then optimizing it using reinforcement learning. The approach has been successfully applied to stress test a prototype of ACAS Xin various simulated aircraft encounters. In some applications, we are not as interestedin the system's absolute performance as its performance relative to another system. Such situations arise, for example, during regression testing or when deciding whether a new system should replace an existing system. In our collision avoidance application, we are interested in finding cases where ACAS X fails but TCAS succeeds in resolving a conflict. Existing approaches do not provide an efficient means to perform this type of analysis. This paper extends the AST approach to differential analysis by searching two simulators simultaneously and maximizing the difference between their outcomes. We call this approach differential adaptive stress testing (DAST). We apply DAST to compare a prototype of ACAS X against TCAS and show examples of encounters found by the algorithm.

Lee, Ritchie↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cross Section Calculations and Comparison to Experiment

Understanding fragmentation of galactic cosmic ray nuclei in collisions within spacecraft structures and human tissues is an important element in assessing biological risk to crew members from this radiation source. Over the past four decades, various models have been developed to describe these important processes. Some models invoke semi-classical concepts based upon geometric descriptions of collisions between spherical nuclei.

Townsend, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Orbital Debris Problem and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

LEO debris population will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. The root-cause of the increase is catastrophic collisions involving large/massive intact objects (rocket bodies or spacecraft). The major mission-ending risks for most operational spacecraft, however, come from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields (~5-mm to 1-cm). A solution-driven approach is to seek: Concepts for removal of massive intacts with high P(collision); Concepts capable of preventing collisions involving intacts; Concepts for removal of 5-mm to 1-cm debris; Enhanced impact protection shields for valuable space assets. Key questions for remediation consideration of orbital debris: What is the acceptable threat level? What are the mission objectives? What is the appropriate roadmap/timeframe for remediation? Support advanced technology development when an economically viable approach is identified. Address non-technical issues, such as policy, coordination, ownership, legal, and liability at the national and international levels.

Liou, J.-C.↗