SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “complex ensemble”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Large‐Storm Dominance in High‐Resolution GCMs and Observations Across the Western Contiguous United States

Abstract Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sampling lattices in semi-grand canonical ensemble with autoregressive machine learning

Calculating thermodynamic potentials and observables efficiently and accurately is key for the application of statistical mechanics simulations to materials science. However, naive Monte Carlo approaches, on which such calculations are often dependent, struggle to scale to complex materials in many state-of-the-art disciplines such as the design of high entropy alloys or multi-component catalysts. To address this issue, we adapt sampling tools built upon machine learning-based generative modeling to the materials space by transforming them into the semi-grand canonical ensemble. Furthermore, we show that the resulting models are transferable across wide ranges of thermodynamic conditions and can be implemented with any internal energy model U, allowing integration into many existing materials workflows. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach to the simulation of benchmark systems (AgPd, CuAu) that exhibit diverse thermodynamic behavior in their phase diagrams. Finally, we discuss remaining challenges in model development and promising research directions for future improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structure-Based Design of Small-Molecule Inhibitors of Human Interleukin-6

Human Interleukin-6 (hIL-6) is a pro inflammatory cytokine that binds to its receptor, IL-6Rα followed by binding to gp130 and subsequent dimerization to form a hexamer signaling complex. As a critical inflammation mediator, hIL-6 is associated with a diverse range of diseases and monoclonal antibodies in clinical use that either target IL-6Rα or hIL-6 to inhibit signaling. Here, we perform high-throughput structure-based computational screening using ensemble docking for small-molecule antagonists for which the target conformations were taken from 600 ns long molecular dynamics simulations of the apo protein. Prior knowledge of the contact sites from binary complex studies and experimental work was incorporated into the docking studies. The top 20 scoring ligands from the in silico studies after post analysis were subjected to in vitro functional assays. Among these compounds, the ligand with the second-highest calculated binding affinity experimentally showed an ~84% inhibitory effect on IL6-induced STAT3 reporter activity at 10 μM concentration. This finding may pave the way for designing small-molecule inhibitors of hIL-6 of therapeutic significance.

Human Interleukin-6↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations

Understanding the interaction between humans and the Earth system is a computationally daunting task, with many possible approaches depending on resources available and questions of interest. For example, state-of-the-art impact models require decade-long time series of relatively high frequency, spatially resolved and often multiple variables representing climatic impact-drivers (Ruane et al., 2022). Most commonly these are derived from the outputs of detailed, computationally expensive Earth System Models (ESMs) run according to a standard, limited set of future scenarios, the latest being the SSP-RCPs run under CMIP6/ScenarioMIP (Eyring et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2016). At the time of writing, O’Neill et al. (2016) has been cited more than 1750 times and Eyring et al. (2016) more than 5000 times, highlighting the broad, general applications of this data. Often, however, impact modeling seeks to explore new scenarios that were not part of the ScenarioMIP protocol, and/or needs a larger set of initial condition ensemble members than are typically available to quantify the effects of ESM internal variability. In addition, the recognition that the human and Earth systems are fundamentally intertwined, and may feature potentially significant feedback loops, is making integrated, simultaneous modeling of the coupled human-Earth system increasingly necessary, if computationally challenging with most existing tools (Thornton et al., 2017). For impact modelers, climate model emulators can be the answer to meet both the needs of: 1) creating realizations for novel scenarios and 2) achieving a simplified, computationally tractable representation of ESM behavior in a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. We proposed a new, comprehensive approach to such emulation of gridded, multivariate ESM outputs for novel scenarios without the computational cost of a full ESM, STITCHES (Tebaldi et al., 2022). The approach outlined in Tebaldi et al. (2022) should be extensible to future CMIP eras, although the STITCHES software at present is strictly focused on CMIP6/ScenarioMIP data hosted on Pangeo (https://gallery.pangeo.io/repos/pangeo-gallery/cmip6/). The corresponding STITCHES Python package uses existing archives of ESMs’ scenario experiments from CMIP6/ScenarioMIP to construct gridded, multivariate realizations of new scenarios provided by reduced complexity climate models (Hartin et al., 2015; Meinshausen et al., 2011; Smith et al., 2018), or to enrich existing initial condition ensembles. Its output provides the same characteristics as the emulated ESM output: multivariate (spanning potentially all variables that the ESM has saved), spatially resolved (down to the native grid of the ESM), and preserving the same high frequency as the original data. A new realization of multiple variables can be generated on the order of minutes with STITCHES, rather than the hours or sometimes days that ESMs require.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Colloidal State Machines as Smart Tracers for Chemical Reactor Analysis

A widely utilized tool in reactor analysis is passive tracers that report the residence time distribution, allowing estimation of the conversion and other properties of the system. Recently, advances in microrobotics have introduced powered and functional entities with sizes comparable to some traditional tracers. This has motivated the concept of Smart Tracers that could record the local chemical concentrations, temperature, or other conditions as they progress through reactors. Herein, the design constraints and advantages of Smart Tracers by simulating their operation in a laminar flow reactor model conducting chemical reactions of various orders are analyzed. It is noted that far fewer particles are necessary to completely map even the most complex concentration gradients compared with their conventional counterparts. Design criteria explored herein include sampling frequency, memory storage capacity, and ensemble number necessary to achieve the required accuracy to inform a reactor model. Cases of severe particle diffusion and sensor noise appear to bind the functional upper limit of such probes and require consideration for future design. The results of the study provide a starting framework for applying the new technology of microrobotics to the broad and impactful set of problems classified as chemical reactor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

RNA target highlights in CASP15 : Evaluation of predicted models by structure providers

Abstract The first RNA category of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction competition was only made possible because of the scientists who provided experimental structures to challenge the predictors. In this article, these scientists offer a unique and valuable analysis of both the successes and areas for improvement in the predicted models. All 10 RNA‐only targets yielded predictions topologically similar to experimentally determined structures. For one target, experimentalists were able to phase their x‐ray diffraction data by molecular replacement, showing a potential application of structure predictions for RNA structural biologists. Recommended areas for improvement include: enhancing the accuracy in local interaction predictions and increased consideration of the experimental conditions such as multimerization, structure determination method, and time along folding pathways. The prediction of RNA–protein complexes remains the most significant challenge. Finally, given the intrinsic flexibility of many RNAs, we propose the consideration of ensemble models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

In situ amplification of spin echoes within a kinetic inductance parametric amplifier

The use of superconducting microresonators together with quantum-limited Josephson parametric amplifiers has enhanced the sensitivity of pulsed electron spin resonance (ESR) measurements by more than four orders of magnitude. So far, the microwave resonators and amplifiers have been designed as separate components due to the incompatibility of Josephson junction–based devices with magnetic fields. This has produced complex spectrometers and raised technical barriers toward adoption of the technique. Here, we circumvent this issue by coupling an ensemble of spins directly to a weakly nonlinear and magnetic field–resilient superconducting microwave resonator. We perform pulsed ESR measurements with a 1-pL mode volume containing 6 × 10 7 spins and amplify the resulting signals within the device. When considering only those spins that contribute to the detected signals, we find a sensitivity of 2.8 x 10 3 spins / $\sqrt{Hz}$ for a Hahn echo sequence at a temperature of 400 mK. In situ amplification is demonstrated at fields up to 254 mT, highlighting the technique’s potential for application under conventional ESR operating conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

OpenFacadeControl: enabling integration of automated facades with other building systems

Automated facades are, for the most part, still considered as separate from other building systems throughout the design, installation, commissioning, operation, and maintenance cycle. This takes place despite the fact that their energy and comfort performance are deeply interlinked with the operation of lighting and HVAC systems. Over the last two decades, research has shown that there are significant advantages from operating facades as an integrated system with the rest of the building. Nevertheless, significant barriers prevent this type of integration becoming more common. One of them is the lack of a platform that is inexpensive to implement and that easily allows the practical implementation of integrated control algorithms across fenestration and other building systems, using a variety of communications protocols. This is particularly challenging when automated facades are installed in existing buildings, where interaction with legacy building systems that were installed over the past lifetime of the building can require a high degree of interoperability. OpenFacadeControl (OFC) is an open-source controls framework aimed at unified control of facades and other building systems, including the sharing of third-party sensor information. Through leveraging the Volttron controls platform, it allows the integration of systems and sensors that are manufactured by different companies and that use different communications protocols into an ensemble that functions as a single system. OFC is designed to enable integrated control algorithms of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simple, heuristic controls to more sophisticated approaches like model-predictive control. Use of a research version to test advanced lighting and shading strategies in a full-scale experimental testbed has demonstrated the ease of deploying advanced control solutions using OpenFacadeControl. This paper presents the structure of OpenFacadeControl and a demonstration case showing the use of OFC in laboratory tests of advanced lighting and fenestration controls that coordinated motorized shades communicating via the BACnet building communications standard and lights communicating via internet-protocol-based application programming interface (API), based on the readings of a shared light level sensor communicating via a different API.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2003

Project trades model for complex space missions

A Project Trades Model (PTM) is a collection of tools/simulations linked together to rapidly perform integrated system trade studies of performance, cost, risk, and mission effectiveness. An operating PTM captures the interactions between various targeted systems and subsystems through an exchange of computed variables of the constituent models. Selection and implementation of the order, method of interaction, model type, and envisioned operation of the ensemble of tools rpresents the key system engineering challenge of the approach. This paper describes an approach to building a PTM and using it to perform top-level system trades for a complex space mission. In particular, the PTM discussed here is for a future Mars mission involving a large rover.

web services↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pseudorandomness from Subset States

We show it is possible to obtain quantum pseudorandomness and pseudoentanglement from random subset states -- i.e. quantum states which are equal superpositions over (pseudo)random subsets of strings. This answers an open question of Aaronson et al. [arXiv:2211.00747], who devised a similar construction augmented by pseudorandom phases. Our result follows from a direct calculation of the trace distance between t copies of random subset states and the Haar measure, via the representation theory of the symmetric group. We show that the trace distance is negligibly small, as long as the subsets are of an appropriate size which is neither too big nor too small. In particular, we analyze the action of basis permutations on the symmetric subspace, and show that the largest component is described by the Johnson scheme: the double-cosets of the symmetric group S N by the subgroup S t x S N-t . The Gelfand pair property of this setting implies that the matrix eigenbasis coincides with the symmetric group irreducible blocks, with the largest eigenblock asymptotically approaching the Haar average. An immediate corollary of our result is that quantum pseudorandom and pseudoentangled state ensembles do not require relative phases.

Computational Complexity (cs.CC)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Artificial intelligence techniques for integrative structural biology of intrinsically disordered proteins

Here, we outline recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques for integrative structural biology of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDP) ensembles. IDPs challenge the traditional protein structure-function paradigm by adapting their conformations in response to specific binding partners leading them to mediate diverse, and often complex cellular functions such as biological signaling, self-organization and compartmentalization. Obtaining mechanistic insights into their function can therefore be challenging for traditional structural determination techniques. Often, scientists have to rely on piecemeal evidence drawn from diverse experimental techniques to characterize their functional mechanisms. Multiscale simulations can help bridge critical knowledge gaps about IDP structure-function relationships - however, these techniques also face challenges in resolving emergent phenomena within IDP conformational ensembles. We posit that scalable statistical inference techniques can effectively integrate information gleaned from multiple experimental techniques as well as from simulations, thus providing access to atomistic details of these emergent phenomena.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dimensionality Reduction Through Classifier Ensembles

In data mining, one often needs to analyze datasets with a very large number of attributes. Performing machine learning directly on such data sets is often impractical because of extensive run times, excessive complexity of the fitted model (often leading to overfitting), and the well-known "curse of dimensionality." In practice, to avoid such problems, feature selection and/or extraction are often used to reduce data dimensionality prior to the learning step. However, existing feature selection/extraction algorithms either evaluate features by their effectiveness across the entire data set or simply disregard class information altogether (e.g., principal component analysis). Furthermore, feature extraction algorithms such as principal components analysis create new features that are often meaningless to human users. In this article, we present input decimation, a method that provides "feature subsets" that are selected for their ability to discriminate among the classes. These features are subsequently used in ensembles of classifiers, yielding results superior to single classifiers, ensembles that use the full set of features, and ensembles based on principal component analysis on both real and synthetic datasets.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Annual Research Briefs

This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

Spinks, Debra↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defect Thermodynamics and Transport Properties of Proton Conducting Oxide BaZr 1–x Y x O 3–δ (x ≤ 0.1) Guided by Density Functional Theory Modeling

Density functional theory-based thermodynamic modeling was performed to determine the effect of humidity and H 2 /O 2 gas pressure on the defect chemistry and transport properties of proton conducting oxide BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ (x ≤ 0.1) in the temperature range of 800–1200K, relevant for solid oxide fuel/electrolysis cell applications. The first-principles charge defect analysis was carried out to obtain the defect energetic ensembles as a function of Fermi level as well as the dependence of the hydration and oxidation reaction energies on complex defect-dopant configurations. It is shown that oxygen vacancies introduced to compensate for the extra Ba vacancies may cause a slight increase in the concentration of hydroxyl and proton species upon hydration of Ba deficient BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ , while the overall proton diffusivity is predicted to decrease with increased proton hopping barriers upon trapping near the Ba vacancies. The developed defect model is further demonstrated to be able to describe the bulk defect chemistry and transport properties of BaZr 0.9 Y 0.1 O 3-δ under the solid oxide cell operating conditions. Finally, the theoretical framework developed in this work further allows the inclusion of configurational, energetic and electronic characteristics of the defects that can be used as a complementary tool to experimental measurements for testing various mechanistic pathways or to provide essential mechanistic data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗