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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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187 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Asymmetric pathways for lithium extraction and recovery based on the two-phase equilibrium of layered oxides

Electrochemical intercalation offers a promising platform for Li + extraction. However, only limited types of electrode materials have been investigated. The challenge to broaden and tailor materials for electrochemical intercalation-based Li + extraction lies in the lack of understanding of material’s response upon co-intercalation of multiple ions, therefore, paired process design to enable reversible Li + extraction and recovery. Here, we showcase the design of asymmetric ion pathways for Li + extraction and recovery for host material with complex Li + and Na + interaction using layered cobalt oxide as a model material. The two-phase equilibrium of Na 0.48 CoO 2 and Li 0.94 CoO 2 governs Li + selectivity when a high depth of intercalation is achieved (low vacancy level). We show that the relative rate between ion exchange and intercalation is critical to determine the ion pathways. The relationship can be quantitatively compared using the average pseudo ion exchange rate (C pseudoIX ) and the intercalation rate (C inter ). The ion pathways at the three regimes with C pseudoIX > C inter , C pseudoIX ~ C inter , and C pseudoIX < C inter are constructed. By selecting the optimized ion pathway and particle size, we demonstrate 9.7×10 4 Li + selectivity with 99% purity Li + recovery from an initial 1:1000 Li: Na molar ratio solution using 115 mAh/g specific capacity.

electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reaction Optimization for Enzymatic Deconstruction of Industrially Relevant Nylon Composites

Plastics such as polyamides (PAs) possess unique physicochemical properties that make them indispensable in modern society. However, their energy‐intensive production and challenging end‐of‐life management highlight the urgent need for efficient recycling or remanufacturing solutions. Enzymatic depolymerization offers a promising route toward circular recycling, yet remains constrained by limited enzyme characterization, lack of validation under industrially relevant conditions and substrates, and overall performance. Here, we optimized the reaction conditions for three recently discovered nylon‐degrading enzymes. One of them, Nyl12, achieved product titers with PA6 and PA66 that exceed previously reported values, without enzyme engineering or substrate pretreatment. We further demonstrated the scalability of the process and its application to complex PA‐based materials used in microelectronic components. Analysis of substrate features, including surface area and particle size, revealed key parameters governing enzymatic activity and provided a framework for future pretreatment and process optimization efforts. In combination, these efforts provide a new benchmark for enzymatic nylon recycling.

nylon↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Self‐Healing System for Polydicyclopentadiene Thermosets

Self-healing offers promise for addressing structural failures, increasing lifespan, and improving durability in polymeric materials. Implementing self-healing in thermoset polymers faces significant manufacturing challenges, especially due to the elevated temperature requirements of thermoset processing. To introduce self-healing into structural thermosets, the self-healing system must be thermally stable and compatible with the thermoset chemistry. This article demonstrates a self-healing microcapsule-based system stable to frontal polymerization (FP), a rapid and energy-efficient manufacturing process with a self-propagating exothermic reaction (≈200 °C). A thermally latent Grubbs-type complex bearing two N-heterocyclic carbene ligands addresses limitations in conventional G2-based self-healing approaches. Under FP's elevated temperatures, the catalyst remains dormant until activated by a Cu(I) co-reagent, ensuring efficient polymerization of the dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) upon damage to the polyDCPD matrix. The two-part microcapsule system consists of one capsule containing the thermally latent Grubbs-type catalyst dissolved in the solvent, and another capsule containing a Cu(I) coagent blended with liquid DCPD monomer. Using the same chemistry for both matrix fabrication and healing results in strong interfaces as demonstrated by lap-shear tests. In an optimized system, the self-healing system restores the mechanical properties of the tough polyDCPD thermoset. Self-healing efficiencies greater than 90% via tapered double cantilever beam tests are observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Power performance and loads characterization of laboratory-scale cross-flow rotors fabricated using additive manufacturing

Tidal energy conversion is a relatively new application for additive manufacturing (AM), where the focus has been on fabricating axial-flow turbine blades. AM techniques add material precisely where it is needed, creating more complex shapes with less waste. Cross-flow rotor geometry presents an opportunity for AM to improve rotor performance by fabricating features that cannot be created economically via conventional manufacturing. The challenges associated with using AM in cross-flow design include water resistance and degradation over time while retaining a level of quality equivalent to conventionally machined parts. In this work, AM materials were tested by environmentally conditioning samples in a seawater tank for 5 months, followed by performance and phase-resolved load testing of laboratory-scale rotors in a hydraulic flume. We found that while metals like titanium and Inconel have excellent performance in marine environments, achieving the desired geometry and performance is difficult. Thermoplastics degraded in seawater but were easier to form into desired geometries and could exceed the performance of an aluminum control rotor. Warping and surface finish were significant detractors from AM rotor performance. These results suggest that the primary benefits of using AM for cross-flow rotors is to quickly fabricate and test unconventional rotor geometries.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strain and Defect-Tailored Magnetotransport in NiCo 2 O 4 Thin Films and Freestanding Membranes

Magnetic spinel NiCo 2 O 4 is promising for developing spintronic applications due to its high magnetic Curie temperature, high spin polarization, fast spin dynamics, and strain-tunable magnetic anisotropy, while its electronic and magnetic properties depend sensitively on epitaxial strain and disorder. Here, in this study, we use epitaxial NiCo 2 O 4 thin films and freestanding NiCo 2 O 4 membranes as model systems to reveal the complex interplay of strain and defects in determining the metallicity and magnetotransport properties of the ferrimagnetic spinel. NiCo 2 O 4 on perovskite substrates and NiCo 2 O 4 membranes exhibit insulating behaviors and spin canting, in sharp contrast to the metallic NiCo 2 O 4 films on spinel substrates that possess strong perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. Anisotropic magnetoresistance studies provide critical information about disorder-induced spin scattering and strain-induced tetragonal magnetocrystalline anisotropy, which is corroborated by comprehensive electron microscopy characterizations. Our study presents a promising venue for designing flexible magnetic memory, sensor, and spintronic applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tree tensor network hierarchical equations of motion based on time-dependent variational principle for efficient open quantum dynamics in structured thermal environments

In this work, we introduce an efficient method, TTN-HEOM, for exactly calculating the open quantum dynamics for driven quantum systems interacting with highly structured bosonic baths by combining the tree tensor network (TTN) decomposition scheme with the bexcitonic generalization of the numerically exact hierarchical equations of motion (HEOM). The method yields a series of quantum master equations for all core tensors in the TTN that efficiently and accurately capture the open quantum dynamics for non-Markovian environments to all orders in the system–bath interaction. These master equations are constructed based on the time-dependent Dirac–Frenkel variational principle, which isolates the optimal dynamics for the core tensors given the TTN ansatz. The dynamics converges to the HEOM when increasing the rank of the core tensors, a limit in which the TTN ansatz becomes exact. We introduce TENSO, tensor equations for non-Markovian structured open systems, as a general-purpose Python code to propagate the TTN-HEOM dynamics. We implement three general propagators for the coupled master equations: two fixed-rank methods that require a constant memory footprint during the dynamics and one adaptive-rank method with a variable memory footprint controlled by the target level of computational error. We exemplify the utility of these methods by simulating a two-level system coupled to a structured bath containing one Drude–Lorentz component and eight Brownian oscillators, which is beyond what can presently be computed using the standard HEOM. Our results show that the TTN-HEOM is capable of simulating both dephasing and relaxation dynamics of driven quantum systems interacting with structured baths, even those of chemical complexity, with an affordable computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Thermodynamic and Environmental Factors on Crystallization of DNA‐Origami Superlattices

The directed self‐assembly of nanoscale materials into ordered superlattices presents a powerful strategy for creating next‐generation materials with programmable mechanical, optical, and photonic properties. Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) origami has emerged as a versatile scaffold for encoding nanoscale geometry and guiding the crystallization of complex 3D architectures. However, a systematic understanding of the parameters that govern the efficiency and quality of superlattice formation remains limited. In this study, we utilize octahedral DNA nanoscale frames as a model system to investigate the relative influence of key factors, including buffer composition, ionic strength, frame concentration, and thermal annealing protocols, on the size, order, and reproducibility of the resulting superlattices. Our findings provide a quantitative framework to rationally optimize DNA‐based assembly pathways. Structural characterization via small‐angle x‐ray scattering (SAXS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and optical microscopy validates the quality and fidelity of the assembled lattices. Moreover, by templating these DNA frameworks into inorganic replicas, we establish general design principles that extend beyond biomolecular systems, providing a foundation for the synthesis of programmable materials in broader nanofabrication contexts.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon Tetrachloride Degradation Results for 200-ZP-1 Operable Unit

Carbon tetrachloride (CT) contamination in the 200-ZP-1 Operable Unit (OU) at the Hanford Site originated from large-volume discharges to the subsurface during plutonium production operations between 1955 and 1973. Contamination migrated through more than 70 meters of unsaturated sediment to reach the underlying unconfined aquifer, where it persists as a large and complex groundwater plume. The 200-ZP-1 OU Record of Decision (ROD) requires that groundwater CT concentrations be reduced to 3.4 µg/L within 125 years. Current groundwater modeling projections estimate that the existing pump-and-treat, even when combined with monitored natural attenuation (specifically hydrolysis), will not achieve this target within the designated timeframe. A fundamental contributor to this shortfall is the extremely slow rate of CT hydrolysis under Hanford aquifer conditions, which has been estimated to have a half-life of 630 years. If faster-acting biotic and abiotic degradation processes are operating within the aquifer, their contribution to CT mass reduction could have a meaningful impact. However, site-specific measurements of these processes and their rates have not previously been performed. This report documents the results of a two-phase laboratory investigation designed to characterize and quantify the capacity of site-specific 200-ZP-1 OU sediments and groundwater to support natural attenuation of CT through biotic and abiotic pathways. In this context, degradation capacity is defined as the intrinsic potential of the subsurface matrix to transform CT under optimized, controlled conditions. System capacity is evaluated in two ways: (1) as rate-limited capacity, which establishes the maximum kinetic velocity of CT transformation and is measured using half-lives and first order rate constants; and (2) as mass limited capacity, which defines the total contaminant mass the batch experimental system can degrade before reactants are exhausted, representing the maximum amount of contaminant the microbial community and reactive mineral phases can transform under the experimental conditions.

abiotic degradation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of an irradiated uranium sample for source attribution without chemical separation using microplasma ionization and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

The use of element isotope ratios has great potential in not only determining the reactor type used to produce plutonium (Pu) but also in determining the burnup and the time since irradiation. While a powerful nuclear forensic technique, determining element isotope ratios is complicated by severe isobaric interferences when performed on typical inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers. Such analyses require extensive chemical separations prior to analysis to alleviate the inter-elemental isobars. Ultrahigh mass resolution spectrometry provides a potential alternative, greatly reducing the complexity of sample preparation and turnaround times for these critical measurements. To demonstrate the power of the approach, a sample of irradiated, depleted uranium was analyzed with the liquid sampling—atmospheric pressure glow discharge ion source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer. The Orbitrap is augmented with an external data acquisition system, Spectroswiss’s FTMS-Booster X2T, allowing collection of extended ion transients, providing higher mass resolution. In using this approach, the 150 Sm/ 149 Sm and 152 Sm/ 149 Sm isotope ratios were found to be within 20% of predicted values without any chemical separations and without mass bias corrections. In addition, the 240 Pu/ 239 Pu isotope ratio was determined, free from the 238 UH + interferences common to the ICP-MS platforms, while at the same time allowing for the determination of U isotopic signatures. While these demonstrative results are from a single sample, the advantages of the microplasma/ultrahigh mass resolution approach to intra-element isotope ratio determinations are clear.

Fuel burnup↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases↗
DOE OSTI2023

The brighter-fatter effect in the JWST MIRI Si:As IBC detectors: I. Observations, impact on science, and modeling

Context.The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on board theJames WebbSpace Telescope (JWST) uses three Si:As impurity band conduction (IBC) detector arrays. The output voltage level of each MIRI detector pixel is digitally recorded by sampling up the ramp. For uniform or low-contrast illumination, the pixel ramps become nonlinear in a predictable way, but in areas of high contrast, the nonlinearity curve becomes much more complex. The origin of the effect is poorly understood and currently not calibrated out of the data. Aims.We provide observational evidence of the brighter-fatter effect (BFE) in MIRI conventional and high-contrast coronagraphic imaging, low-resolution spectroscopy, and medium-resolution spectroscopy data, and we investigate the physical mechanism that gives rise to the effect on the MIRI detector pixel raw voltage integration ramps. Methods.We used public data from the JWST/MIRI commissioning and Cycle 1 phase. We also developed a numerical electrostatic model of the MIRI detectors using a modified version of the publicPoisson_CCDcode. Results.We find that the physical mechanism behind the BFE manifesting in MIRI data is fundamentally different to that of charge-coupled devices and photodiode arrays such as the Hawaii-XRG near-infrared detectors used by the NIRISS, NIRCam, and NIRSpec instruments on board JWST. Observationally, the BFE makes the JWST MIRI data yield 10–25% larger point sources and spectral line profiles as a function of the relative level of de-biasing of neighboring detector pixels. This broadening impacts the MIRI absolute flux calibration, time-series observations of faint companions, and point spread function modeling and subtraction. We also find that the intra-pixel 2D profile of the shrinking Si:As IBC detector depletion region directly impacts the accuracy of the pixel ramp nonlinearity calibration model.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scan‐Path‐ and Initial‐State‐Dependent Superdomain Switching in (111)‐Oriented PZT

Polarization switching in ferroelectric materials arises from the collective evolution of complex domain hierarchies, yet deterministic control over these processes remains challenging. Here, we investigate scan-path- and initial-state-dependent switching in epitaxial (111)-oriented PbZr 0.2 Ti 0.8 O 3 thin films using automated AFM-based writing combined with quantitative 3D piezoresponse force microscopy. We show that the scan trajectory acts as an experimentally accessible control parameter for superdomain formation. Box-in-box raster scans reproducibly stabilize ordered stripe superdomains with a reduced subset of symmetry-allowed variants, whereas spiral trajectories generate frustrated mixed-variant states with a broader distribution of final microstructures. Automated pulsing experiments further show that the local superdomain configuration at the nucleation site strongly influences the final written morphology. Phase-field modeling qualitatively reproduces the contrast between representative initial-state geometries and supports the role of compatibility constraints among competing ferroelastic pathways. These findings establish scan-path and initial-state engineering as practical handles to program ferroic order in hierarchical ferroelectric domain structures.

Vasudevan, Rama K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design and Realization of Ohmic and Schottky Interfaces for Oxide Electronics

Understanding band alignment and charge transfer at complex oxide interfaces is critical to tailoring and utilizing their diverse functionality. Toward this goal, both Ohmic- and Schottky-like charge transfers at oxide/oxide semiconductor/metal interfaces are designed and experimentally validated. A method for predicting band alignment and charge transfer in ABO 3 perovskites is utilized, where previously established rules for simple semiconductors fail. The prototypical systems chosen are the rare class of oxide metals, SrBO 3 with B = V–Ta, when interfaced with the multifaceted semiconducting oxide, SrTiO 3 . For B = Nb and Ta, it is confirmed that a large accumulation of charge occurs in SrTiO 3 due to the higher energy Nb and Ta states relative to Ti. Furthermore, this gives rise to a high mobility metallic interface, which is an ideal epitaxial oxide/oxide Ohmic contact. On the contrary, for B = V, there is no charge transfer into the SrTiO 3 interface, which serves as a highly conductive epitaxial gate metal. Going beyond these specific cases, this work opens the door to integrating the vast phenomena of ABO 3 perovskites into a wide range of practical devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effects of Composition and Oxidation States on the Structures of Chromium-Containing Sodium Silicate Glasses: Molecular Dynamics Simulations using Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Chromium represents a significant challenge for the vitrification of high-level nuclear waste into silicate and borosilicate glasses due to its low solubility and variable oxidation states, which can limit the waste loading due to promotion of crystallization or phase separation during processing. In this study, we modeled chromium containing silicate glasses using molecular dynamics simulations with three machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), MACE, CHGNet, and PFP were employed, to gain insights on glass composition and oxidation states on the structures of these glasses. One of the goals is to evaluate their ability of these MLIPs to accurately represent the general structure of silicate glasses and chromium local environments as a function of chromium oxidation states. Density Functional Theory (DFT) based calculations and experimental data such as neutron structure factors were used to validate the structural models. It was found that the foundation models of all three MLIPs are able to reproduce general structural features of the sodium silicate glass structure consistent with experimental and DFT data, but only CHGNet and PFP can accurately capture the oxidation states and local environment of chromium: tetrahedral for Cr6+ and octahedral for Cr3+. Furthermore, we studied the effect of varying Cr3+/ Cr6+ (Cr3+/Crtotal) ratio and total chromium content using PFP. Our results show that Cr6+ enhances network polymerization by reducing non-bridging oxygens through Na? charge compensation required due to the formation of chromate (CrO42-) species, while Cr³? acts as a network modifier that disrupts connectivity. System size effects on the structural characteristics and chromium environments were also tested using the PFP potential. This work highlights the importance of careful validation on the precision, transferability, and potential of MLIPs for modeling glasses containing transition metal elements that can exist in multiple oxidation states. It is also encouraging to see the foundational models are all three MLFFs are able to reproduce the basic sodium silicate glass structures, while suggesting additional training or refining is needed to improve the description of more complex systems containing transition metals.

Puga, Christina L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

RADAI: A Large-Scale Realistic Dataset for Radiation Detection Algorithm Development

Open, realistic datasets are essential for developing and benchmarking radiation detection algorithms, yet they remain scarce. The Radiological Anomaly Detection and Identification (RADAI) project was develop to create datasets that meet the training and testing needs for sophisticated radiation detection algorithms. The RADAI dataset is a large-scale synthetic resource that integrates high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations with realistic urban scenarios to capture both background variability and source signatures. RADAI models construction-material NORM, people and vehicles, urban clutter, and dynamic environmental effects such as cosmic-ray and rain-induced transients, and they provide list-mode detector data with motion and response modeling suitable for algorithm training and evaluation. The RADAI project resulted in three publicly-released complementary datasets together with an online scoring portal for standardized performance assessment and an open software toolkit that supports data access, augmentation, model development, and evaluation. These resources enable reproducible comparisons across methods and promote rigorous studies at the scale required by contemporary machine learning. By grounding algorithm development in realistic, well-documented conditions, RADAI supports progress toward more robust detection, identification, and localization in complex urban environments.

Ghawaly, James M. [Division of Computer Science an↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revealing the evolution of order in materials microstructures using multi-modal computer vision

The development of high-performance materials for microelectronics, energy storage, and extreme environments depends on our ability to describe and direct property-defining microstructural order. Our present understanding is typically derived from laborious manual analysis of imaging and spectroscopy data, which is difficult to scale, challenging to reproduce, and lacks the ability to reveal latent associations needed for mechanistic models. Here, we demonstrate a multi-modal machine learning (ML) approach to describe order from electron microscopy analysis of the complex oxide La 1−x Sr x FeO 3 . We construct a hybrid pipeline based on fully and semi-supervised classification, allowing us to evaluate both the characteristics of each data modality and the value each modality adds to the ensemble. We observe distinct differences in the performance of uni- and multi-modal models, from which we draw general lessons in describing crystal order using computer vision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗