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DOE OSTI2024

Improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions

Abstract Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction is highly desired due to the great socioeconomical implications, yet it remains one of the most challenging topics in the weather/climate prediction research area. As part of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) project of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, twenty-one climate models follow the LS4P protocol to quantify the impact of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) springtime anomalies on the global summertime precipitation. We find that nudging towards reanalysis winds is crucial for climate models to generate atmosphere and land surface initial conditions close to observations, which is necessary for meaningful S2S applications. Simulations with nudged initial conditions can better capture the summer precipitation responses to the imposed TP LST/SUBT spring anomalies at hotspot regions all over the world. Further analyses show that the enhanced S2S prediction skill is largely attributable to the substantially improved initialization of the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train pattern in the atmosphere. This study highlights the important role that initial condition plays in the S2S prediction and suggests that data assimilation technique (e.g., nudging) should be adopted to initialize climate models to improve their S2S prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Apparent Monte Carlo Source Convergence Problem with BWR Fuel Depleted with Partial Control Blade Insertion

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have initiated a multiyear project to investigate application of burnup credit (BUC) to boiling-water reactor (BWR) fuel in storage and transportation casks and spent fuel pools (SFPs). Ideally, a single combination of all operating parameters including moderator density and axial burnup profiles, control blade exposure, and others can be identified to allow a simple, bounding approach to BWR BUC. One aspect of this investigation involves examining the effect of control blade insertion during operation on discharged assembly reactivity. In the course of these calculations, an apparent source convergence problem was discovered for fuel that has experienced partial blade insertion for the entire lifetime of the assembly. The source convergence problem appears not to impact k{sub eff}, but it manifests in predictions of the axial fission density profile. This phenomenon is of interest in identifying areas of concern with BWR BUC since it has not been studied as thoroughly as BUC for pressurized-water (PWR) reactor fuel. There may also be interest in this configuration for further study of a realistic source Monte Carlo convergence problem as opposed to some earlier manufactured source convergence problems through careful selection of initial conditions. This summary presents the depletion conditions used to generate the problem, a description of the models, a background based on well-behaved calculations, the identification of the problem, and attempts made to resolve the problem. Only a brief description of the depletion conditions and models is possible within the limited scope of this summary. Finally, conclusions are presented. This summary identifies a source convergence problem in the process of investigating BUC for BWR spent fuel. The depletion scenario which created the depleted fuel and burnable absorber compositions included a control blade inserted in the bottom 14 nodes throughout the entire depletion. This insertion is slightly over half the length of the assembly, and it appears to create two regions of nearly equal reactivity. As expected, one region is near the top of the assembly, and the other region is near the middle of the assembly. This node includes significant {sup 239}Pu generation as a result of rodded operation, but it is also the top node of the full lattice zone. While the calculated k{sub eff} values appear to be statistically equivalent, the axial neutron production profile varies significantly among independent simulations of the same model. A range of standard approaches has been used to attempt to resolve the source convergence problem and determine the true axial neutron production profile. This profile is of interest in cask criticality safety analysis because it influences the interaction among assemblies loaded in the cask. The forthcoming SCALE 6.2 release will include source convergence testing based on Shannon entropy, which may assist in identifying these types of problems in the future. It should be noted that this source convergence problem results from the depletion conditions and the final distribution of fissile and absorber material within the discharged fuel assembly. The results, while entirely generated within the SCALE code system, are representative of any Monte Carlo program attempting to calculate k{sub eff} for such a system. The most important conclusion of this work is that the BUC criticality safety community must be aware of the potential for this type of source convergence problem. Analysts must approach such partially rodded scenarios with caution and critically examine the results. Fortunately, it is extremely unlikely that BWR assemblies would experience the bladed operation necessary to create this particular source convergence problem. These results may also have some bearing on the analysis of PWR BUC for new plant designs such as AP1000 that incorporate significant rodded operations. In a broader context, the source convergence problem identified here could have been magnified if it had occurred in a Monte Carlo depletion simulation. It may be possible to identify this type of problem in a depletion calculation by comparing the apparently converged fluxes between steps to ensure that no oscillations or other serious shifts are occurring. The depletion calculations performed in this work were performed with a two-dimensional deterministic code and are therefore not subject to this problem. These results may also raise questions about the validity of 2D depletion models with extruded geometry in the 3D k{sub eff} calculation. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1981

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

An attempt is made to compute the contributions of various surface boundary conditions to the monthly mean states generated by the 7 layer, 8 x 10 GISS climate model (Hansen et al., 1980), and also to examine the influence of initial conditions on the model climate simulations. Obvious climatic controls as the shape and rotation of the Earth, the solar radiation, and the dry composition of the atmosphere are fixed, and only the surface boundary conditions are altered in the various climate simulations.

Spar, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Spreadsheet Simulation Tool for Terrestrial and Planetary Balloon Design

During the early stages of new balloon design and development, it is necessary to conduct many trade studies. These trade studies are required to determine the design space, and aid significantly in determining overall feasibility. Numerous point designs then need to be generated as details of payloads, materials, mission, and manufacturing are determined. To accomplish these numerous designs, transient models are both unnecessary and time intensive. A steady state model that uses appropriate design inputs to generate system-level descriptive parameters can be very flexible and fast. Just such a steady state model has been developed and has been used during both the MABS 2001 Mars balloon study and the Ultra Long Duration Balloon Project. Using Microsoft Excel's built-in iteration routine, a model was built. Separate sheets were used for performance, structural design, materials, and thermal analysis as well as input and output sheets. As can be seen from figure 1, the model takes basic performance requirements, weight estimates, design parameters, and environmental conditions and generates a system level balloon design. Figure 2 shows a sample output of the model. By changing the inputs and a few of the equations in the model, balloons on earth or other planets can be modeled. There are currently several variations of the model for terrestrial and Mars balloons, as well there are versions of the model that perform crude material design based on strength and weight requirements. To perform trade studies, the Visual Basic language built into Excel was used to create an automated matrix of designs. This trade study module allows a three dimensional trade surface to be generated by using a series of values for any two design variables. Once the fixed and variable inputs are defined, the model automatically steps through the input matrix and fills a spreadsheet with the resulting point designs. The proposed paper will describe the model in detail, including current variations. The assumptions, governing equations, and capabilities will be addressed. Detailed examples of the model in practice will also be used.

Raquea, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

The effect of ambient conditions on carbon monoxide emissions from an idling gas turbine combustor

A test program employing a gas turbine combustor is outlined; the results of which quantize the effects of changes in ambient temperature and humidity on carbon monoxide emissions at simulated idle operating conditions. A comparison of the experimental results with analytical results generated by a kinetic model of the combustion process, and reflecting changing ambient conditions, is given. It is demonstrated that for a complete range of possible ambient variations, significant changes do occur in the amount of carbon monoxide emitted by a gas turbine at idle, and that the analytical model is reasonably successful in predicting changes.

Subramanian, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1995

MMPP Traffic Generator for the Testing of the SCAR 2 Fast Packet Switch

A prototype MWP Traffic Generator (TG) has been designed for testing of the COMSAT-supplied SCAR II Fast Packet Switch. By generating packets distributed according to a Markov-Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) model. it allows the assessment of the switch performance under traffic conditions that are more realistic than could be generated using the COMSAT-supplied Traffic Generator Module. The MMPP model is widely believed to model accurately real-world superimposed voice and data communications traffic. The TG was designed to be as much as possible of a "drop-in" replacement for the COMSAT Traffic Generator Module. The latter fit on two Altera EPM7256EGC 192-pin CPLDs and produced traffic for one switch input port. No board changes are necessary because it has been partitioned to use the existing board traces. The TG, consisting of parts "TGDATPROC" and "TGRAMCTL" must merely be reprogrammed into the Altera devices of the same name. However, the 040 controller software must be modified to provide TG initialization data. This data will be given in Section II.

Chren, William A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational Characterization and Boundary Condition Models of a Jet Interaction Fluidic Oscillator

Fluidically oscillating jet actuators that generate sweeping jets when supplied with a pressurized fluid have been used to mitigate separation and reduce drag in a range of flow control applications. Their implementation in future flight vehicles would require fundamental understanding and accurate predictive techniques of the physics of their internal flow and jet formation. The present investigations focus on high-fidelity, time-accurate simulations to characterize the flow physics of the actuator in quiescent conditions. An important element of the present simulations is to demonstrate the ability of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver to predict the jet characteristics and provide a basis for the development of improved boundary conditions (BC) without entirely resolving the geometrical features of the fluidic device. The CFD-predicted oscillation frequencies of the engendered jets were found to be in excellent agreement with experiments, even on two-dimensional meshes. The study revealed that three-dimensional simulations are required to capture some of the flow features of the sweeping jet such as the double peak in time-averaged velocity distributions downstream of the actuator’s orifice that were measured in experiments. Furthermore, several approaches for modeling the actuator were implemented and assessed in quiescent conditions. The evaluation of a boundary condition at the device throat, based on the phase-averaged flow variables, provides the basis for devising surface-based boundary conditions. The influence and necessity of including turbulent characteristics as part of the boundary conditions have also been identified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multimodal imaging and machine learning to enhance microscope images of shale

A machine learning based image processing workflow is presented to enhance shale source rock microscopic images obtained using diverse imaging platforms. Images were acquired from a 30 μm diameter cylindrical Vaca Muerta shale sample using both nondestructive Transmission X-Ray Microscopy (TXM, alternately referred to as nano computed tomography) and destructive Focused Ion Beam-Scanning Electron Microscopy (FIB-SEM). Output cross-sectional images from each modality were aligned using a combination of manual and automated registration techniques to create a registered image dataset. We then apply this dataset for two image processing tasks: prediction of image cross sections with SEM-like resolution from nondestructive TXM data and repair of charged region artifacts (localized accumulation of electrons) within SEM images. The image processing algorithms for both tasks use deep learning models, specifically image-to-image Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs). In the image enhancement tasks, we are able to achieve significant qualitative and quantitative improvement in TXM images. Here, the best model reaches an average Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) of 15.8 dB. Conditioning on TXM data is also shown to reduce artifacts from SEM charging, achieving an average PSNR of 25.8 dB. Furthermore, our results suggest that properly trained and validated networks are capable of significant enhancement of images obtained using nondestructive techniques, thereby improving interpretation of two- and three-dimensional images while preserving samples for future use.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

GeneratorSE: A Sizing Tool for Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Generators

This report documents a set of analytical models employed by the optimization algorithms within the GeneratorSE framework. The initial values and boundary conditions employed for the generation of the various designs and initial estimates for basic design dimensions, masses, and efficiency for the four different models of generators are presented and compared with empirical data collected from previous studies and some existing commercial turbines. These models include designs applicable for variable-speed, high-torque application featuring direct-drive synchronous generators and low-torque application featuring induction generators. In all of the four models presented, the main focus of optimization is electromagnetic design with the exception of permanent-magnet and wire-wound synchronous generators, wherein the structural design is also optimized. Thermal design is accommodated in GeneratorSE as a secondary attribute by limiting the winding current densities to acceptable limits. A preliminary validation of electromagnetic design was carried out by comparing the optimized magnetic loading against those predicted by numerical simulation in FEMM4.2, a finite-element software for analyzing electromagnetic and thermal physics problems for electrical machines. For direct-drive synchronous generators, the analytical models for the structural design are validated by static structural analysis in ANSYS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) LOX turbopump pump-end bearing analysis

A simulation of the shaft/bearing system of the Space Shuttle Main Engine Liquid Oxygen turbopump was developed. The simulation model allows the thermal and mechanical characteristics to interact as a realistic simulation of the bearing operating characteristics. The model accounts for single and two phase coolant conditions, and includes the heat generation from bearing friction and fluid stirring. Using the simulation model, parametric analyses were performed on the 45 mm pump-end bearings to investigate the sensitivity of bearing characteristics to contact friction, axial preload, coolant flow rate, coolant inlet temperature and quality, heat transfer coefficients, outer race clearance and misalignment, and the effects of thermally isolating the outer race from the isolator.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural constraint integration in a generative model for the discovery of quantum materials

Billions of organic molecules have been computationally generated, yet functional inorganic materials remain scarce due to limited data and structural complexity. Here, in this work, we introduce Structural Constraint Integration in a GENerative model (SCIGEN), a framework that enforces geometric constraints, such as honeycomb and kagome lattices, within diffusion-based generative models to discover stable quantum materials candidates. SCIGEN enables conditional sampling from the original distribution, preserving output validity while guiding structural motifs. This approach generates ten million inorganic compounds with Archimedean and Lieb lattices, over 10% of which pass multistage stability screening. High-throughput density functional theory calculations on 26,000 candidates shows over 95% convergence and 53% structural stability. A graph neural network classifier detects magnetic ordering in 41% of relaxed structures. Furthermore, we synthesize and characterize two predicted materials, TiPd 0.22 Bi 0.88 and Ti 0.5 Pd 1.5 Sb, which display paramagnetic and diamagnetic behaviour, respectively. Our results indicate that SCIGEN provides a scalable path for generating quantum materials guided by lattice geometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2019

CFD Evaluation of Lean-Direct Injection Combustors for Commercial Supersonics Technology

An overview is given of an effort that focused on using CFD analysis to complement design and configuration definition of Lean-Direct Injection (LDI) combustion concepts for NASA's Commercial Supersonic Transport (CST) program. The National Combustion Code (OpenNCC) was used to perform non-reacting and two-phase reacting flow computations for second and third generation LDI configurations at CST cruise conditions. All computations were performed with a consistent approach of mesh-generation, spray modeling, ignition and kinetics modeling. Emissions (EINOx) characteristics were predicted for CST cruise conditions, and compared with emissions data from experimental measurements to evaluate the fidelity of the CFD modeling approach to predict emissions changes in response to changes in supersonic cycle conditions.

nitrogen oxides injectors↗

NASA NTRS2019

CFD Evaluation Of Lean-Direct Injection Combustors for Commercial Supersonics Technology

Ajmani, Kumud↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mesoscale to Microscale Coupling for a Wind Ramp Case over Complex Terrain

Within the wind energy community, it has become increasingly important to simulate realistic weather events at high fidelity in order to improve wind turbine design, wind farm efficiency, and power forecasting. One of the major difficulties in simulating atmospheric events with numerical models at high fidelity is in accurately transitioning from the mesoscale to the microscale. The mesoscale flow, when input into the large-eddy simulation (LES) domain, will be free of resolved turbulence; needing sufficient time and space (known as fetch) for resolved-scale turbulence to develop. In order to reduce this fetch, several methods exist in which the temperature field, wind field, or both, are stochastically perturbed in order to accelerate the generation of turbulence. However, for cases involving complex terrain, it remains unclear if these perturbation processes are necessary, and if the interaction of the flow over the terrain, alone, is sufficient to generate adequate turbulence. In this study, a wind ramp event observed at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) outside of Boulder, CO is simulated first with a mesoscale model and then, using the simulated mesoscale solution as initial and boundary conditions, within a microscale LES solver. The mesoscale solution generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model accurately captures the wind ramp event with only a slight temporal shift and a small temperature bias when compared to the meteorological towers in the NWTC site. This information is then taken as the initial and boundary conditions within the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) microscale LES model with varying terrain inputs. These inputs include the high-resolution (roughly 30 m grid spacing) terrain data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) (Figure 1a), as well as, three intermediate terrain resolution data sets produced by applying a uniform convolution window to the SRTM data with varying window sizes (Figure 1b-d). These are compared to the WRF terrain data interpolated to the high-resolution microscale grid (Figure 1e) in order to determine the impact of low-resolution (about 1 km grid spacing) terrain data on turbulence generation. The wind field is compared at several heights and distances along the dominant wind flow axis between each of the terrain cases. It is found that the development of turbulence across the domain is accelerated as terrain information increases in fidelity. Further, because this ramp event at the location of interest is largely influenced by the interaction of the short-wave trough with the terrain, as the topographic information decreases in fidelity the accuracy of the ramp event is decreased. To make generalizations and describe the benefits and shortcomings of this approach, several of the existing perturbation techniques are employed and compared to that of turbulence generation through topographic features.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Erosional dynamics, flexural isostasy, and long-lived escarpments: A numerical modeling study

Erosional escarpments common features of high-elevation rifted continets. Fission track data suffest that these escarpments form by base level lowering and/or marginal uplift during rifting, followed by lateral retreat of an erosion front across tens to hundreds of kioometers. Previous modeling studies have shown that this characteristic pattern of denudation can have a profound impact upon marginal isostatic uplift and the evolution of offshore sedimentary basins. Yet at present there is only a rudimentary understanding of the geomorphic mechanisms capable of driving such prolonged escarpment retreat. In this study we present a nonlinear, two-dimensional landscape evolution model tha tis used to asses the necessary and sufficient conditions for long-term retreat of a rift-generated escarpment. The model represents topography as a grid of cells, with drainage networkds evolving as water flows across the grid in the direction of steepest descent. The model accounts for sediment production by weathering, fluvial sediment transport, bedrock channel erosion, and hillslope sediment transport by diffusive mechanisms and by mass failure. Numerical experiments presented explore the effects of different combinations of erosion processes and of dynamic coupling between denudation and flexural isostatic uplift. Model results suggest that the necessary and sufficient conditions for long-term escarpment retreat are (1) incising bedrock channels in which the erosion rate increases with increasing drainage area, so that the channels steepen and propagate headward; (2) a low rate of sediment production relative to sediment transport efficiency, which promotes relief-generating processes over diffusive ones; (3) high continental elevation, which allows greater freedom for fluvial dissection; and (4) any process, including flexural isostatic uplift, that helps to maintain a drainage divide near an escarpment crest. Flexural isostatic uplift also facilitates escarpment, thereby increasing channel gradients and accelerating erosion which in turn generates additional isostatic uplift. Of all the above conditions, high continental elevation is common ot most rift margin escarpments and may ultimately be the most important factor.

Tucker, Gregory E.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Experimental and Computational Aerothermodynamics of a Mars Entry Vehicle

An aerothermodynamic database has been generated through both experimental testing and computational fluid dynamics simulations for a 70 deg sphere-cone configuration based on the NASA Mars Pathfinder entry vehicle. The aerothermodynamics of several related parametric configurations were also investigated. Experimental heat-transfer data were obtained at hypersonic test conditions in both a perfect gas air wind tunnel and in a hypervelocity, high-enthalpy expansion tube in which both air and carbon dioxide were employed as test gases. In these facilities, measurements were made with thin-film temperature-resistance gages on both the entry vehicle models and on the support stings of the models. Computational results for freestream conditions equivalent to those of the test facilities were generated using an axisymmetric/2D laminar Navier-Stokes solver with both perfect-gas and nonequilibrium thermochemical models. Forebody computational and experimental heating distributions agreed to within the experimental uncertainty for both the perfect-gas and high-enthalpy test conditions. In the wake, quantitative differences between experimental and computational heating distributions for the perfect-gas conditions indicated transition of the free shear layer near the reattachment point on the sting. For the high enthalpy cases, agreement to within, or slightly greater than, the experimental uncertainty was achieved in the wake except within the recirculation region, where further grid resolution appeared to be required. Comparisons between the perfect-gas and high-enthalpy results indicated that the wake remained laminar at the high-enthalpy test conditions, for which the Reynolds number was significantly lower than that of the perfect-gas conditions.

Hollis, Brian R.↗