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DOE OSTI2016

Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources

The current Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) can best be estimated from changes in ocean heat content (OHC), complemented by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements and an assessment of the small non-ocean components. Sustained observations from the Argo array of autonomous profiling floats enable near-global estimates of OHC since 2005, which reveal considerable cancellation of variations in the upper 300 m. An analysis of the monthly contributions to EEI from non-ocean components (land and ice) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble reveals standard deviations of 0.3–0.4 W m -2 (global); largest values occur in August, but values are below 0.75 W m -2 greater than 95% of the time. Global standard deviations of EEI of 0.64 W m -2 based on top-of-atmosphere observations therefore substantially constrain ocean contributions, given by the tendencies of OHC. Instead, monthly standard deviations of many Argo-based OHC tendencies are 6–13 W m -2 , and nonphysical fluctuations are clearly evident. It is shown that an ocean reanalysis with multivariate dynamical data assimilation features much better agreement with TOA radiation, and 44% of the vertically integrated short-term OHC trend for 2005–14 of 0.8 ± 0.2 W m -2 (globally) occurs below 700-m depth. Largest warming occurs from 20° to 50°S, especially over the southern oceans, and near 40°N in all ocean analyses. The EEI is estimated to be 0.9 ± 0.3 W m -2 for 2005–14.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mineralogical, magnetic and geochemical data constrain the pathways and extent of weathering of mineralized sedimentary rocks

The oxidative weathering of sulfidic rock can profoundly impact watersheds through the resulting export of acidity and metals. Weathering leaves a record of mineral transformation, particularly involving minor redox-sensitive phases, that can inform the development of conceptual and quantitative models. In sulfidic sedimentary rocks, however, variations in depositional history, diagenesis and mineralization can change or overprint the distributions of these trace minerals, complicating the interpretation of weathering signatures. Here we show that a combination of bulk mineralogical and geochemical techniques, micrometer-resolution X-ray fluorescence microprobe analysis and rock magnetic measurements, applied to drill core samples and single weathered fractures, can provide data that enable the development of a geochemically consistent weathering model. This work focused on one watershed in the Upper Colorado River Basin sitting within the Mesaverde Formation, a sedimentary sandstone bedrock with disseminated sulfide minerals, including pyrite and sphalerite, that were introduced during diagenesis and subsequent magmatic-hydrothermal mineralization. Combined analytical methods revealed the pathways of iron (Fe), carbonate and silicate mineral weathering and showed how pH controls element retention or release from the actively weathering fractured sandstone. Drill core logging, whole rock X-ray diffraction, and geochemical measurements document the progression from unweathered rock at depth to weathered rock at the surface. X-ray microprobe analyses of a 1-cm size weathering profile along a fracture surface are consistent with the mobilization of Fe(II) and Fe(III) into acidic pore water from the dissolution of primary pyrite, Fe-sphalerite, chlorite, and minor siderite and pyrrhotite. These reactions are followed by the precipitation of secondary minerals such as of goethite and jarosite, a Fe-(oxyhydr)oxide and hydrous Fe(III) sulfate, respectively. Microscale analyses also helped explain the weathering reactions responsible for the mineralogical transformations observed in the top and most weathered section of the drill core. For example, dissolution of feldspar and chlorite neutralizes the acidity generated by Fe and sulfide mineral oxidation, oversaturating the solution in both Fe-oxides. The combination of X-ray spectromicroscopy and magnetic measurements show that the Fe(III) product is goethite, mainly present either as a coating on fracture surfaces in the actively weathering region of the core or more homogeneously contained within the unconsolidated regolith at the top of the core. Low-temperature magnetic data reveal the presence of ferromagnetic Fe-sulfide pyrrhotite that, although it occurs at trace concentrations, could provide a qualitative proxy for unweathered sulfide minerals because the loss of pyrrhotite is associated with the onset of oxidative weathering. Pyrrhotite loss and goethite formation are detectable through room-temperature magnetic coercivity changes, suggesting that rock magnetic measurements can determine weathering intensity in rock samples at many scales. In conclusion, this work contributes evidence that the weathering of sulfidic sedimentary rocks follows a geochemical pattern in which the abundance of sulfide minerals controls the generation of acidity and dissolved elements, and the pH-dependent mobility of these elements controls their export to the ground- and surface-water.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Dark energy equation of state parameter and its evolution at low redshift

In this paper, we constrain dark energy models using a compendium of observations at low redshifts. We consider the dark energy as a barotropic fluid, with the equation of state a constant as well the case where dark energy equation of state is a function of time. The observations considered here are Supernova Type Ia data, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data and Hubble parameter measurements. We compare constraints obtained from these data and also do a combined analysis. The combined observational constraints put strong limits on variation of dark energy density with redshift. For varying dark energy models, the range of parameters preferred by the supernova type Ia data is in tension with the other low redshift distance measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Decoding the proton’s gluonic density with lattice QCD-informed machine learning

We present a first machine learning-based decoding of the gluonic structure of the proton from lattice QCD using a variational autoencoder inverse mapper (VAIM). Harnessing the power of generative AI, we predict the parton distribution function (PDF) of the gluon given information on the reduced pseudo-Ioffe-time distributions (RpITDs) as calculated from an ensemble with lattice spacing a ≈ 0.09 fm and a pion mass of M π ≈ 310 MeV. The resulting gluon PDF is consistent with phenomenological global fits within uncertainties, particularly in the intermediate-to-high-x region where lattice data are most constraining. A subsequent correlation analysis confirms that the VAIM learns a meaningful latent representation, highlighting the potential of generative AI to bridge lattice QCD and phenomenological extractions within a unified analysis framework.

Gluon parton distribution function↗

NASA NTRS2014

Investigating the Present Day Cosmic Dust Flux at the Earth's Surface: Initial Results from the Kwajalein Micrometeorite Collection

Examination of impact craters on the Long Duration Exposure Facility satellite indicate a present day micrometeoroid flux of approx. 30,000 tonnes [1 after 2]. But what portion of this material arrives at the Earth's surface as micrometeorites? Studies of available micrometeorite collections from deep sea sediments [e.g. 3], Greenland blue ice [e.g. 4] and the South Pole water well [e.g. 1] may be complicated by terrestrial weathering and, in some cases, collection bias (magnetic separation for deep sea sediments) and poorly constrained ages. We have recently set up a micrometeorite collection station on Kwajalein Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, using high volume air samplers to collect particles directly from the atmosphere. By collecting in this way, the terrestrial age of the particles is known, the weathering they experience is minimal, and we are able to constrain particle arrival times. Collecting at this location also exploits the considerably reduced anthropogenic background [5]. Method: High volume air samplers were installed on top of the two-story airport building on Kwajalein. These were fitted with polycarbonate membrane filters with 5μm diameter perforations. The flow rates were set to 0.5m3/min, and filters were changed once a week. After collection, filters were washed to remove salt and concentrate particles [see 5] in preparation for analysis by SEM. Results and Discussion: A selection of filters have been prepared and surveyed. Due to their ease of identification our initial investigations have focused on particles resembling cosmic spherules. The spheres can be divided into three main groups: 1. Silicate spherules rich in Al, Ca, K and Na (to varying degrees), 2. Silicate spherules rich in Mg and Fe and 3. Fe-rich spherules. Group 1 spherules are often vesiculated and can occur as aggregates. They are similar in appearance and composition to volcanic microspheres [e.g. 6] and are thus likely terrestrial in origin (volcanic). Those of groups 2 and 3, however, typically exhibit quenched surface textures consistent with cosmic spherules. Initial results suggest there is significant variation in the abundance of these groups from filter to filter. Work is ongoing to fully characterize these spherules and to constrain their flux with time.

Wozniakiewicz, P. J.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Spin–orbit angles of Kepler-13Ab and HAT-P-7b from gravity-darkened transit light curves

Analysis of the transit light curve deformed by the stellar gravity darkening allows us to photometrically measure both components of the spin–orbit angle ψ, its sky projection λ and inclination of the stellar spin axis i{sub ⋆}. In this paper, we apply the method to two transiting hot Jupiter systems monitored with the Kepler spacecraft, Kepler-13A and HAT-P-7. For Kepler-13A, we find i{sub ⋆}=81{sup ∘}±5{sup ∘} and ψ=60{sup ∘}±2{sup ∘} adopting the spectroscopic constraint λ = 58.°6 ± 2.°0 by Johnson et al. In our solution, the discrepancy between the above λ and that previously reported by Barnes et al. is solved by fitting both of the parameters in the quadratic limb-darkening law. We also report the temporal variation in the orbital inclination of Kepler-13Ab, d|cos i{sub orb}|/dt=(−7.0±0.4)×10{sup −6} days{sup −1}, providing further evidence for the spin–orbit precession in this system. By fitting the precession model to the time series of i{sub orb}, λ, and i{sub ⋆} obtained with the gravity-darkened model, we constrain the stellar quadrupole moment J{sub 2}=(6.1±0.3)×10{sup −5} for our new solution, which is several times smaller than J{sub 2}=(1.66±0.08)×10{sup −4} obtained for the previous one. We show that the difference can be observable in the future evolution of λ, thus providing a possibility to test our solution with follow-up observations. The second target, HAT-P-7, is the first F-dwarf star analyzed with the gravity-darkening method. Our analysis points to a nearly pole-on configuration with ψ=101{sup ∘}±2{sup ∘} or 87{sup ∘}±2{sup ∘} and the gravity-darkening exponent β consistent with 0.25. Such an observational constraint on β can be useful for testing the theory of gravity darkening.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Constraining the mass–richness relationship of redMaPPer clusters with angular clustering

The potential of using cluster clustering for calibrating the mass–richness relation of galaxy clusters has been recognized theoretically for over a decade. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of this technique to achieve high-precision mass calibration using redMaPPer clusters in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey North Galactic Cap. By including cross-correlations between several richness bins in our analysis, we significantly improve the statistical precision of our mass constraints. The amplitude of the mass–richness relation is constrained to 7 per cent statistical precision by our analysis. However, the error budget is systematics dominated, reaching a 19 per cent total error that is dominated by theoretical uncertainty in the bias–mass relation for dark matter haloes. We confirm the result from Miyatake et al. that the clustering amplitude of redMaPPer clusters depends on galaxy concentration as defined therein, and we provide additional evidence that this dependence cannot be sourced by mass dependences: some other effect must account for the observed variation in clustering amplitude with galaxy concentration. Assuming that the observed dependence of redMaPPer clustering on galaxy concentration is a form of assembly bias, we find that such effects introduce a systematic error on the amplitude of the mass–richness relation that is comparable to the error bar from statistical noise. Finally, the results presented here demonstrate the power of cluster clustering for mass calibration and cosmology provided the current theoretical systematics can be ameliorated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Variations of leaf longevity in tropical moist forests predicted by a trait-driven carbon optimality model

Leaf longevity (LL) varies more than 20-fold in tropical evergreen forests, but it remains unclear how to capture these variations using predictive models. Current theories of LL that are based on carbon optimisation principles are challenging to quantitatively assess because of uncertainty across species in the ‘ageing rate:’ the rate at which leaf photosynthetic capacity declines with age. Here in this paper, we present a meta-analysis of 49 species across temperate and tropical biomes, demonstrating that the ageing rate of photosynthetic capacity is positively correlated with the mass-based carboxylation rate of mature leaves. We assess an improved trait-driven carbon optimality model with in situLL data for 105 species in two Panamanian forests. Additionally, we show that our model explains over 40% of the cross-species variation in LL under contrasting light environment. Collectively, our results reveal how variation in LL emerges from carbon optimisation constrained by both leaf structural traits and abiotic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Temperatures Simulated by WACCM‐X With NAVGEM‐HA Meteorological Analyses and Compared to SABER Observations

Realistic modeling of the dynamics and variability in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) is critical to understand the coupling between different layers of the whole atmosphere system. Here we present simulations of the UMLT temperatures at ∼100 km altitude for one year during 2014 by the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) constrained below ∼90 km using meteorological analysis products of the high-altitude version of Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM-HA). The model results are sampled at the same times and latitudes and longitudes as the satellite observations from Thermosphere Ionosphere and Mesosphere Electric Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (TIMED/SABER). Comparisons show that the observed and modeled daily zonal mean temperatures are correlated (r ∼0.5–0.7) at most latitudes between ±50°. Both the observations and simulations show an annual variation at mid-latitudes in two hemispheres with the temperature maximum in summer and the minimum in winter, and at lower latitudes the semiannual variation becomes stronger having the temperature maximums at equinoxes and the minimums during solstices. However, the temperatures observed are on average ∼5–10 K (3%–5%) smaller than the model and the observations show a larger variability. Moreover, migrating tidal amplitudes are mostly overestimated by the model. Though differences are noticed, the WACCM-X simulations with NAVGEM-HA meteorological analyses are overall consistent with the SABER observations. These results support that whole atmosphere models informed by high altitude observations would help to simulate the UMLT variability and the atmosphere and ionosphere coupling.

Guiping Liu↗

DOE OSTI2015

Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends

Here, we examined natural and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) changes from 1982-2010 using multiple estimates from remote sensing-based datasets and process-oriented land surface models. A significant increased trend of ET in each hemisphere was consistently revealed by observationally-constrained data and multi-model ensembles that considered historic natural and anthropogenic drivers. The climate impacts were simulated to determine the spatiotemporal variations in ET. Globally, rising CO 2 ranked second in these models after the predominant climatic influences, and yielded a decreasing trend in canopy transpiration and ET, especially for tropical forests and high-latitude shrub land. Increased nitrogen deposition slightly amplified global ET via enhanced plant growth. Land-use-induced ET responses, albeit with substantial uncertainties across the factorial analysis, were minor globally, but pronounced locally, particularly over regions with intensive land-cover changes. Our study highlights the importance of employing multi-stream ET and ET-component estimates to quantify the strengthening anthropogenic fingerprint in the global hydrologic cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of the polarization angle variability of the Crab Nebula with POLARBEAR and its application to the search for axionlike particles

The Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, is a polarized astronomical source at millimeter wavelengths. It has been used as a stable light source for polarization angle calibration in millimeter-wave astronomy. However, it is known that its intensity and polarization vary as a function of time at a variety of wavelengths. Thus, it is of interest to verify the stability of the millimeter-wave polarization. If detected, polarization variability may be used to better understand the dynamics of Tau A, and for understanding the validity of Tau A as a calibrator. One intriguing application of such observation is to use it for the search of axionlike particles (ALPs). Ultralight ALPs couple to photons through a Chern-Simons term, and induce a temporal oscillation in the polarization angle of linearly polarized sources. After assessing a number of systematic errors and testing for internal consistency, we evaluate the variability of the polarization angle of the Crab Nebula using 2015 and 2016 observations with the 150 GHz P instrument. We place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.06 5 ° over the oscillation frequencies from 0.75 year − 1 to 0.66 hour − 1 . Assuming that no sources other than ALP are causing Tau A’s polarization angle variation, that the ALP constitutes all the dark matter, and that the ALP field is a stochastic Gaussian field, this bound translates into a median 95% upper bound of ALP-photon coupling g a γ γ < 2.16 × 10 − 12 GeV − 1 × ( m a / 10 − 21 eV ) in the mass range from 9.9 × 10 − 23 eV to 7.7 × 10 − 19 eV . This demonstrates that this type of analysis using bright polarized sources is as competitive as those using the polarization of cosmic microwave background in constraining ALPs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, Shunsuke (ORCID:0000000204007555)↗

NASA NTRS2023

ChIPPS: Charged Information-storage Polymer Preparation System

Technological advances are required to support principal science objectives of missions to the solar system’s icy worlds to seek biosignatures of past/extant life. Sensitivity and reliability are key concerns due to small sample sizes (µL – mL) and the extraordinary import of the results. The preparation and processing of small samples can constrain limits of detection (LoDs); therefore, the Charged Information-storage Polymer Preparation System (ChIPPS) project is advancing the technologies of autonomous sample preparation and processing to add a new class of reliably detectable biosignatures: charged polymers and particles, which can be the information storage-and-transmission means for life. Specifically, we are developing an integrated microfluidic sample-processing unit to prepare icy-world samples to support complementary solid-state nanopore-based analyses: 1) charged-polymer analysis, to characterize variations in polymer chain size, shape, and charge vs. position along the chain; 2) polymer and nanoparticle sizing-and-counting, to characterize the relative abundance of polymer chains, as well as small (virus-sized) particles, by their dimensions and charge. Although no such autonomous system presently exists, such measurements can reveal the nature and abundance of charged polymers that could be used by biological systems to store and transfer information—as DNA and RNA are used terrestrially—without limitation to terrestrial nucleic acids, given that life elsewhere may utilize different information store-and-transfer moieties. Key system components include (a) a lysis unit for mechanical sample disruption; b) an ion-exchange column for charged macromolecule/nanoparticle purification; c) dialyzer to remove excess salt; d) concentrator to enhance signal; e) supporting pumps, valves, bubble traps, connectors, filters, etc.; f) interface to nanopore detection instruments.

Space Biology↗

DOE OSTI2014

Community-integrated omics links dominance of a microbial generalist to fine-tuned resource usage

Microbial communities are complex and dynamic systems that are primarily structured according to their members’ ecological niches. To investigate how niche breadth (generalist versus specialist lifestyle strategies) relates to ecological success, we develop and apply an integrative workflow for the multi-omic analysis of oleaginous mixed microbial communities from a biological wastewater treatment plant. Time- and space-resolved coupled metabolomic and taxonomic analyses demonstrate that the community-wide lipid accumulation phenotype is associated with the dominance of the generalist bacterium Candidatus Microthrix spp. By integrating population-level genomic reconstructions (reflecting fundamental niches) with transcriptomic and proteomic data (realised niches), we identify finely tuned gene expression governing resource usage by Candidatus Microthrix parvicella over time. Moreover, our results indicate that the fluctuating environmental conditions constrain the accumulation of genetic variation in Candidatus Microthrix parvicella likely due to fitness trade-offs. Based on our observations, niche breadth has to be considered as an important factor for understanding the evolutionary processes governing (microbial) population sizes and structures in situ.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1962

Interplanetary Trajectory Optimization with Powerlimited Propulsion Systems

A trajectory-optimization process is described in which the optimum thrust equations are derived using the calculus of variations. The magnitude of the thrust is constrained within an upper and a lower bound, but the thrust direction is arbitrary. This formulation allows both the constant-thrust program and the variable-thrust program to be considered. For the constant-thrust program, certain propulsion-system parameters are optimized for maximum final vehicle mass. This theory has been used to study interplanetary missions to Venus and Mars using a power-limited propulsion system. Both one-way and round trip rendezvous trajectories are considered. The analysis employs a two-body inverse-square force-field model of three dimensions. An iterative routine used to solve the two-point boundary-value problem is described in the Appendix.

TRAJECTORY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Geomagnetic Variability and Predictability

The Earth's magnetic field varies on time scales from seconds to millions of years. These variations can be measured directly by ground observatories and satellites, and indirectly through laboratories. They are from different electromagnetic processes in magnetosphere and ionosphere (external), ocean and crust (surface), and deep in the Earth's fluid outer core (internal). Of the measured magnetic signals, 95% is from the core, and is called the core field, or internal field. Variation of the core field, often called the geomagnetic secular variation (SV), is the manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamic processes in the core. Therefore, SV provides rich information on the core dynamical state that is then critical for understanding the geophysical mechanisms of the SV, the core-mantle interactions, and contribution of mass transport inside the core on Earth's gravity variation. Traditionally, the core state is probed via two independent methodologies: core flow inversion from the observed SV, and pure numerical dynamo simulation. The former is driven by observations, but does not include necessary interactions among physical variables; the latter is dynamically consistent, but is not constrained by any observation. Therefore, both are very limited in providing appropriate estimates of the core state. To avoid these limitations, a new approach, geomagnetic data assimilation, appears recently. In this approach, simulation results (model forecasts) are constantly corrected with observations, the corrected solutions (analysis), are then used as the initial conditions to make more accurate forecasts of future. Recent studies have demonstrated successfully that assimilation solutions are different from those of free running models. These new solutions are better estimates of the core state, and have been used to provide accurate prediction of SV for the period from 2010 to 2015. This prediction is part of the IGRF field model for international community applications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ XRD/XRF to Support Life Detection on Mars

X-ray diffraction / X-ray fluorescence (XRD/XRF) analysis provides the most comprehensive mineralogical / compositional characterization of rocks and soils of any flight-capable technique. XRD data provide quantitative mineralogy (including abundance of X-ray amorphous materials) and crystal chemistry (structure, elemental composition and valence state), and XRF data provide complimentary major, minor, and some trace element abundances. Both types of data are important in evaluating habitability (environment of formation) and biosignature preservation/degradation (post-depositional diagenetic change). Whether or not a relict biosignature is detected, the mineral assemblage and its geochemistry can be used to determine the habitability of an ancient environment (e.g., salinity, pH, temperature), and to identify potential sources of energy for life (e.g., elements in different redox states). In this respect, a null result (a habitable environment lacking evidence of life) can play an important role in constraining the parameters of the search. Conversely, diagenetic alteration (taphonomic change) resulting from post-depositional variations in temperature, pressure or fluid chemistry can preserve evidence of biogenicity, erase such evidence completely or indeed can provide for post-depositional habitable conditions in the subsurface. XRD / XRF data are critical to these determinations. The CheMin instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity rover is the first XRD instrument flown in space. CheMin operates in transmission geometry with a Co X-ray source to minimize fluorescence from iron. Diffracted photons are collected with an energy-sensitive charge-coupled device (CCD). The position of the diffracted photons provides structural information for minerals, whereas the energy of sample-generated X-ray fluorescence photons provides elemental information, though these XRF data are qualitative. Mineralogical data from the CheMin XRD identified the three circumstances above: habitable depositional environments (e.g., Yellowknife Bay), habitable subsurface/diagenetic environments (e.g., throughout the Murray formation), and diagenetic conditions that may destroy evidence of habitability (e.g., oxidative and acidic environments at Vera Rubin ridge). Technological advances in X-ray technology and lessons learned from the operation of CheMin on Mars have resulted in a next-generation XRD/XRF, called CheMinX. Replacement of CheMin’s CCD with an array of hybrid pixel detectors and improvements in focusing optics dramatically decrease analysis time (15 minutes vs. 22 hours for MSL-CheMin) and result in a better angular resolution (0.18 vs. 0.30 °2θ for MSL-CheMin). This increased resolution improves mineral detection, including discrimination between types of pyroxenes, which is not possible with MSL-CheMin data. The hybrid pixel detectors do not require cooling like the MSL-CheMin CCD, therefore reducing the power needed to operate CheMinX. CheMinX has a silicon-drift detector (SDD) to measure fluoresced photons, enabling the quantification of major, minor, and some trace elements via XRF. XRD/XRF data are collected simultaneously in CheMinX, obviating the need for multiple compositional instruments. The CheMinX design also improves upon MSL-CheMin’s sample handling. Instead of sample cells on wheel, which are often not reusable and add complexity in commanding the instrument, CheMinX has single-use cells in a cartridge/dispenser configuration. Because of these improvements, CheMinX is an ideal instrument for Discovery-class life-detection missions, including Mars Life Explorer that was recommended for development in the Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032.

E B Rampe↗

NASA NTRS2001

Diagnosing Tropical Divergent Circulations From Satellite-Derived Diabatic Forcing and Variational Integral Constraints

Large-scale divergent circulations are part of the atmospheric dynamic response to diabatic heating from condensation, radiative processes, and surface energy fluxes. Vertical motion and the associated divergent wind is thus intimately tied to the hydrologic cycle and the global beat balance. Despite its importance, the divergent circulation is too small in comparison to the rotational flow to measure directly with any accuracy. Vertical motions are recovered diagnostically from reanalyses and, as such, are subject to shortcomings in model physics, numerics, and data availability. While reanalysis estimates of tropical divergent circulations are much improved over those from the Global Weather Experiment, there are still substantial differences between products from operational centers. This is because these circulations are still forced largely by model physics and only secondarily by observations. In order to produce a refined estimate of tropical divergence and its interannual variability we have used a number of remotely-sensed data sets along with variational constraints to improve upon reanalysis estimates. Among these are: precipitation from SSM/I and GPCP, TOVS Path-A vertical cloud distributions; ISCCP radiative cooling rates; TOA radiative fluxes from ERBS, surface radiative fluxes from the SRB project, and surface latent and sensible flux estimates from SSM/I. The TOVS Path-A data constrain the divergent outflow in precipitating regions to have the same vertical structure as observed cloudiness. Using integral constraints for moisture, heat, and mass balance, we retrieve consistent divergent wind flows. We examine the ability of this type analysis to capture regional details of ENSO related perturbations to the divergent wind and associated tropical energy balance. Precipitation from satellite is found to be the major constraint in supplying this horizontal structure. We also consider the ability of this analysis to quantify integrated (land vs. ocean) fluctuations in the global monsoonal flow and energy balance. This depends, of course, on the error characteristics of the data constraints. Some estimate of these properties and their relative importance is provided.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Utilizing Small Telescopes Operated by Citizen Scientists for Transiting Exoplanet Follow-up

Due to the efforts by numerous ground-based surveys and NASA's Kepler and Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), there will be hundreds, if not thousands, of transiting exoplanets ideal for atmospheric characterization via spectroscopy with large platforms such as James Webb Space Telescope and ARIEL. However their next predicted mid-transit time could become so increasingly uncertain over time that significant overhead would be required to ensure the detection of the entire transit. As a result, follow-up observations to characterize these exoplanetary atmospheres would require less-efficient use of an observatory's time—which is an issue for large platforms where minimizing observing overheads is a necessity. Here we demonstrate the power of citizen scientists operating smaller observatories (≤1 m) to keep ephemerides "fresh," defined here as when the 1σ uncertainty in the mid-transit time is less than half the transit duration. We advocate for the creation of a community-wide effort to perform ephemeris maintenance on transiting exoplanets by citizen scientists. Such observations can be conducted with even a 6 inch telescope, which has the potential to save up to ∼10,000 days for a 1000-planet survey. Based on a preliminary analysis of 14 transits from a single 6 inch MicroObservatory telescope, we empirically estimate the ability of small telescopes to benefit the community. Observations with a small-telescope network operated by citizen scientists are capable of resolving stellar blends to within 5''/pixel, can follow-up long period transits in short-baseline TESS fields, monitor epoch-to-epoch stellar variability at a precision 0.67% ± 0.12% for a 11.3 V-mag star, and search for new planets or constrain the masses of known planets with transit timing variations greater than two minutes.

Robert T. Zellem↗