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DOE OSTI2025

Capturing Historic Reliability Performance Through Graph Databases: A Model Based System Engineering Approach

With the goal of improving the performance and reliability of high dependable technological systems such as nuclear power plants, advanced monitoring and health management systems are employed to inform system engineers on observed degradation processes and anomalous behaviors of assets and components. This information is captured in the form of large amount of data which can be heterogenous in nature (e.g., numeric, textual). Such large data availability poses challenges when system engineers are required to parse and analyze them in order to track historic reliability performance of assets and components. This paper tackles directly this challenge by providing means to organize data in the form of a graph: a knowledge graph. The presented approach distinguish itself from current knowledge graph-based methods by the fact that model-based system engineering (MBSE) models are used to “put data into context”. In particular, MBSE models are used as skeleton of a knowledge graph; numeric and textual data elements, once processed, are associated to MBSE model elements. Thus, a knowledge graph captures both system architecture (though MBSE models) and health/performance data. Such feature opens the door to new data analytics methods designed to identify causal relations between observed phenomena.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software Engineering Support of the Third Round of Scientific Grand Challenge Investigations: An Earth Modeling System Software Framework Strawman Design that Integrates Cactus and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker

One of the most significant challenges in large-scale climate modeling, as well as in high-performance computing in other scientific fields, is that of effectively integrating many software models from multiple contributors. A software framework facilitates the integration task. both in the development and runtime stages of the simulation. Effective software frameworks reduce the programming burden for the investigators, freeing them to focus more on the science and less on the parallel communication implementation, while maintaining high performance across numerous supercomputer and workstation architectures. This document proposes a strawman framework design for the climate community based on the integration of Cactus, from the relativistic physics community, and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker (DDB) from the climate community. This design is the result of an extensive survey of climate models and frameworks in the climate community as well as frameworks from many other scientific communities. The design addresses fundamental development and runtime needs using Cactus, a framework with interfaces for FORTRAN and C-based languages, and high-performance model communication needs using DDB. This document also specifically explores object-oriented design issues in the context of climate modeling as well as climate modeling issues in terms of object-oriented design.

Talbot, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Collisions of Chondrules Behind Shock Waves

One of the reasons that the mechanism(s) responsible for the formation of chondrules has remained so elusive is that each proposed mechanism must be able to explain a large number of features observed in chondrules. Most models of chondrule formation focus on matching the expected thermal histories of chondrules: rapid heating followed by cooling during crystallization at rates between approx. 10-1000 K/hr [1], and references therein]. Thus far, only models for large shock waves in the solar nebula have quantitatively shown that the thermal evolution of millimeter-sized particles in the nebula can match these inferred thermal histories [2-4]. While this is a positive step for the shock wave model, further testing is needed to see if other properties of chondrules can be explained in the context of this model. One area of interest is understanding the collisional evolution of chondrules after they encounter a shock wave. These collisions could lead to sticking, destruction, or bouncing. Here we focus on understanding what conditions are needed for these different outcomes to occur and try to reconcile the seemingly contradictory conclusions reached by studies of compound chondrule formation and chondrule destruction by collisions behind a shock wave.

Ciesla, F. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-universal SUSY models, $g_\mu -2$, $m_H$ and dark matter

We study the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, g μ – 2 ≡ 2a μ , in the context of supersymmetric models beyond the CMSSM, where the unification of either the gaugino masses M 1,2,3 or sfermion and Higgs masses is relaxed, taking into account the measured mass of the Higgs boson, m H , the cosmological dark matter density and the direct detection rate. We find that the model with non-unified gaugino masses can make a contribution Δa μ ~ 20 x 10 –10 to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, for example if M 1,2 ~ 600 GeV and M 3 ~ 8 TeV. The model with non-universal sfermion and Higgs masses can provide even larger Δa μ ~ 24 x 10 –10 if the sfermion masses for the first and the second generations are ~400 GeV and that of the third is ~8 TeV. We discuss the prospects for collider searches for supersymmetric particles in specific benchmark scenarios illustrating these possibilities, focusing in particular on the prospects for detecting the lighter smuon and the lightest neutralino.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Simulation of patch and slot antennas using FEM with prismatic elements and investigations of artificial absorber mesh termination schemes

Year 1 progress can be characterized with four major achievements which are crucial toward the development of robust, easy to use antenna analysis code on doubly conformal platforms. (1) A new FEM code was developed using prismatic meshes. This code is based on a new edge based distorted prism and is particularly attractive for growing meshes associated with printed slot and patch antennas on doubly conformal platforms. It is anticipated that this technology will lead to interactive, simple to use codes for a large class of antenna geometries. Moreover, the codes can be expanded to include modeling of the circuit characteristics. An attached report describes the theory and validation of the new prismatic code using reference calculations and measured data collected at the NASA Langley facilities. The agreement between the measured and calculated data is impressive even for the coated patch configuration. (2) A scheme was developed for improved feed modeling in the context of FEM. A new approach based on the voltage continuity condition was devised and successfully tested in modeling coax cables and aperture fed antennas. An important aspect of this new feed modeling approach is the ability to completely separate the feed and antenna mesh regions. In this manner, different elements can be used in each of the regions leading to substantially improved accuracy and meshing simplicity. (3) A most important development this year has been the introduction of the perfectly matched interface (PMI) layer for truncating finite element meshes. So far the robust boundary integral method has been used for truncating the finite element meshes. However, this approach is not suitable for antennas on nonplanar platforms. The PMI layer is a lossy anisotropic absorber with zero reflection at its interface. (4) We were able to interface our antenna code FEMA_CYL (for antennas on cylindrical platforms) with a standard high frequency code. This interface was achieved by first generating equivalent magnetic currents across the antenna aperture using the FEM code. These currents were employed as the sources in the high frequency code.

Gong, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The use of stellite scatterometer winds to drive a primitive equation model of the Indian Ocean: The impact of bandlike sampling

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the bandlike sampling of spaceborne scatterometers on the ability of scatterometer winds to successfully force the mean flow and seasonal cycle of an ocean model in the context of equatorial and tropical dynamics. The equatorial ocean is simulated with a four-layer, primitive equation, reduced gravity model of the Indian Ocean. The variable wind stress used in this study is derived from one year (1988) of 6-hour analyses of the 10-m wind vector over the Indian Ocean performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). It is applied as a forcing at every grid point of the model to drive a reference circulation. Scatterometer winds are simulated from ECMWF winds, using the nominal configurations and orbital parameters of the European Remote Sensing 1 (ERS-1) and NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) missions. The model is forced in real time under swaths with the raw scatterometer winds of ERS-1 and NSCAT, with a persistence condition (i.e., the wind is kept constsnt until the next passage of the satellite provides a new value). The circulation obtained for each of the scatterometer experiments is compared with the reference circulation. The seasonal circulation of the Indian Ocean with NSCAT winds is very similar to the reference. The perturbations introduced by the bandlike sampling and the persistance condition have an impact similar to that of a small uncorrelated noise added to the reference forcing. The persistence condition for ERS-1 does not give results which are as good as those obtained for NSCAT.

Barnier, Bernard↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sonora: A New Generation Model Atmosphere Grid for Brown Dwarfs and Young Extrasolar Giant Planets

Brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheric structure and composition has been studied both by forward models and, increasingly so, by retrieval methods. While indisputably informative, retrieval methods are of greatest value when judged in the context of grid model predictions. Meanwhile retrieval models can test the assumptions inherent in the forward modeling procedure. In order to provide a new, systematic survey of brown dwarf atmospheric structure, emergent spectra, and evolution, we have constructed a new grid of brown dwarf model atmospheres. We ultimately aim for our grid to span substantial ranges of atmospheric metallilcity, C/O ratios, cloud properties, atmospheric mixing, and other parameters. Spectra predicted by our modeling grid can be compared to both observations and retrieval results to aid in the interpretation and planning of future telescopic observations. We thus present Sonora, a new generation of substellar atmosphere models, appropriate for application to studies of L, T, and Y-type brown dwarfs and young extrasolar giant planets. The models describe the expected temperature-pressure profile and emergent spectra of an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium for ranges of effective temperatures and gravities encompassing 200 less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 2400 K and 2.5 less than or equal to log g less than or equal to 5.5. In our poster we briefly describe our modeling methodology, enumerate various updates since our group's previous models, and present our initial tranche of models for cloudless, solar metallicity, and solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio, chemical equilibrium atmospheres. These models will be available online and will be updated as opacities and cloud modeling methods continue to improve.

emergent spectra↗

NASA NTRS1988

A knowledge-based approach to identification and adaptation in dynamical systems control

Artificial intelligence techniques are applied to the problems of model form and parameter identification of large-scale dynamic systems. The object-oriented knowledge representation is discussed in the context of causal modeling and qualitative reasoning. Structured sets of rules are used for implementing qualitative component simulations, for catching qualitative discrepancies and quantitative bound violations, and for making reconfiguration and control decisions that affect the physical system. These decisions are executed by backward-chaining through a knowledge base of control action tasks. This approach was implemented for two examples: a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer and a two-phase thermal testbed. Results of tests with both of these systems demonstrate that the software replicates some or most of the functionality of a human operator, thereby reducing the need for a human-in-the-loop in the lower levels of control of these complex systems.

Glass, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Dynamics of Cascaded Monod System Models Through Five Levels

In the context of this paper, a Monod system model is a set of ordinary differential equations in which the terms resemble those which Motion presented in his 1949 paper. Attention is directed to the multiple trophic level case in which each trophic level exploits only one of the trophic levels for its perpetuation, and no two trophic entities exploit the same trophic level (cascaded). The treatment expands from a primary producer progressively through five trophic levels. Types of stability are identified and are related to persistence, and the consequences of some intuitive scaling structures are developed. These considerations are relevant to some theoretical questions in ecology and to applications such as bioreactor operation.

Blackwell, Charles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

The Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) developed by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is a data-driven model — extensive radar, optical, laboratory, and in situ measurement data sets have been used to build the model since its earliest versions. A salient aspect of professional software development is the verification and validation (V&V) process. Verification answers the question “Is the model built correctly?” while validation addresses the question “Did we build the correct model?” Less extensive, reserved, or independent data sets serve the validation requirement. Due to the dynamic nature of the orbital debris environment, it is critical to use contemporaneous data sources that represent the current environment to support ORDEM development and validation. ORDEM has utilized in situ data collected from Space Shuttle and Hubble Space Telescope surface inspections, now over a decade old. This historical dataset is fundamental for providing baseline in situ measurement data for sizes between 10 to 300 microns, but new data sources are being evaluated using returned surfaces from or near the International Space Station (ISS). This paper reviews a general microscopic survey of ISS soft goods, the Pressurized Mating Adapter 2 (PMA-2) blanket, and a limited-scope feasibility study conducted on the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) Dragon capsule’s Thermal Protection System (TPS) material. The PMA-2 blanket, exposed to the space environment between 09 July 2013 and 25 February 2015, is an approximately 3.7 m2-area blanket composed of a betacloth outer layer and multiple ballistic fabric inner layers. The SpaceX Cargo Dragon capsule regularly visited the ISS from 2012 through 2020 and potentially provides a timely and well-characterized source of data for modeling purposes. The capsule’s lateral surfaces use SpaceX Proprietary Ablative Material (SPAM) TPS material, a syntactic foam, for thermal management during all mission phases. Seven SPAM extracted samples have been analyzed to date. This paper will provide an overview of the characterization completed for impact features by size, depth, impactor diameter, and the impactor residues chemical analyses, allowing a differentiation between micrometeoroids and orbital debris and a categorization by mass density and density class. Impactor diameter is estimated using damage equations generated from ground-based hypervelocity impact testing. The orbital debris impactors are compared to the current ORDEM 3.2 model of the environment at ISS altitudes. We briefly discuss the meteoroid impactors, including constituents and mass densities, in the general context of current models.

Phillip Anz-meador↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Survey of ISS and Visiting Vehicle Returned Surfaces for Environmental Characterization and Computer Model Development

Phillip Anz-Meador↗

NASA NTRS1994

Parameter estimation in a structural acoustic system with fully nonlinear coupling conditions

A methodology for estimating physical parameters in a class of structural acoustic systems is presented. The general model under consideration consists of an interior cavity which is separated from an exterior noise source by an enclosing elastic structure. Piezoceramic patches are bonded to or embedded in the structure; these can be used both as actuators and sensors in applications ranging from the control of interior noise levels to the determination of structural flaws through nondestructive evaluation techniques. The presence and excitation of patches, however, changes the geometry and material properties of the structure as well as involves unknown patch parameters, thus necessitating the development of parameter estimation techniques which are applicable in this coupled setting. In developing a framework for approximation, parameter estimation and implementation, strong consideration is given to the fact that the input operator is unbonded due to the discrete nature of the patches. Moreover, the model is weakly nonlinear. As a result of the coupling mechanism between the structural vibrations and the interior acoustic dynamics. Within this context, an illustrating model is given, well-posedness and approximations results are discussed and an applicable parameter estimation methodology is presented. The scheme is then illustrated through several numerical examples with simulations modeling a variety of commonly used structural acoustic techniques for systems excitations and data collection.

Banks, H. T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

X-Ray Line Spectroscopy of Massive X-Ray Binaries

Spectra from ASCA have provided the most, detailed view to date of the X-ray spectral properties of stellar winds in massive X-ray binaries. Using detailed atomic models that account for recombination cascade kinetics, we have reexamined archival data from Vela X-1 and Cen X-3 in the context of simple models of their wind geometries and velocity distributions. Our approach emphasizes apparent differential emission measure (DEM) distributions, and their dependence on orbital phase and wind parameters. A grid of theoretical DEM distributions is used to generate model spectra, which are compared to the data. We obtain good fits, and derive constraints oil the stellar wind parameters. We provide a summary of the method, and show that, even though the companion stars in Vela X-1 and Cen X-3 have comparable mass-loss rates, the winds in these two systems are dramatically different, in character.

Liedahl, D. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on simplified dark matter models involving an s -channel mediator with the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

This paper reports a summary of searches for a fermionic dark matter candidate in the context of theoretical models characterised by a mediator particle exchange in the s-channel. The data sample considered consists of pp collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider during its Run 2 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector, corresponding to up to 140 fb -1 . The interpretations of the results are based on simplified models where the new mediator particles can be spin-0, with scalar or pseudo-scalar couplings to fermions, or spin-1, with vector or axial-vector couplings to fermions. Exclusion limits are obtained from various searches characterised by final states with resonant production of Standard Model particles, or production of Standard Model particles in association with large missing transverse momentum.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models

High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.

Ciardo, Gianfranco↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Accuracy of Property Model Predictions for Cost Optimization of Desalination Technologies

Accurate modeling of seawater thermophysical and thermodynamic properties is critical for optimizing desalination processes. This study compares three seawater property models, a Reaktoro multicomponent model, the thermophysical seawater properties library from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and a simplified sodium chloride model, in the context of levelized cost of water (LCOW) minimization for reverse osmosis (RO) and mechanical vapor compression systems. Process simulations and cost optimizations reveal that although all three models yield comparable LCOW and specific energy consumption (SEC) estimates under baseline conditions, deviations among their predictions increase with salinity. Relative differences in LCOW and SEC reach up to 6% and 8%, respectively. RO results show greater variability due to differences in osmotic pressure predictions, which affect pressure constraints at high recoveries. Computational performance varies substantially; specifically, Reaktoro simulations are up to 28 times slower than empirical models due to their detailed equilibrium calculations. These results suggest that empirical models offer acceptable accuracy for routine desalination process design, while Reaktoro provides advantages in scenarios requiring detailed speciation, such as scaling or pH adjustment studies. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate property models based on the modeling objective of desalination applications and motivate future work integrating thermodynamic rigor with empirical efficiency.

Physical and chemical properties↗