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During the next decade, numerous in-situ sampling missions are planned to a variety of planets, moons, asteroids, and comets.
Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.
One of the key trade studies that must be considered when studying any new space transportation hardware is whether to go reusable or expendable. An analysis is presented here for such a trade relative to a proposed Liquid Rocket Booster which is being studied at MSFC. The assumptions or inputs to the trade were developed and integrated into a model that compares the Life-Cycle Costs of both a reusable LRB and an expendable LRB. Sensitivities were run by varying the input variables to see their effect on total cost. In addition a Monte-Carlo simulation was run to determine the amount of cost risk that may be involved in a decision to reuse or expend.
Several techniques are used to synthesize the formation-keeping control law for a three-satellite formation in low-earth orbit. The objective is to minimize maneuver cost and position tracking error. Initial reductions are found for a one-satellite case by tuning the state-weighting matrix within the linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework. Further savings come from adjusting the maneuver interval. Scenarios examined include cases with and without process noise. These results are then applied to a three-satellite formation. For both the one-satellite and three-satellite cases, increasing the maneuver interval yields a decrease in maneuver cost and an increase in position tracking error. A maneuver interval of 8-10 minutes provides a good trade-off between maneuver cost and position tracking error. An analysis of the closed-loop poles with respect to varying maneuver intervals explains the effectiveness of the chosen maneuver interval.
Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.
A time advance algorithm associated with the scheduling functionalities of the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) for arrival flights is presented and evaluated. The algorithm enhances TMA's meter fix schedule by advancing the flights' Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) by an amount that minimizes their systemic operating cost. The systemic operating cost leverages the inherent trade-off of time and fuel efficiency resident in the cost index of modern flight management systems. The resulting STAs are achievable by speeding up the leading flights from their desired nominal speed profiles. A key advantage of this approach is that it reduces systemic delay to tight groupings of arriving aircraft as well as increases sustained throughput of the operation. A fast-time, Monte Carlo simulation that emulates TMA's scheduling functionalities is performed for arrival flights to the Phoenix Airport to quantify the benefit of the time advance algorithm. Results show consistent time saving benefits, ranging from 3 to 50 minutes for 112 flights with varying levels of traffic congestion.
Multi-model Monte Carlo methods are efficient strategies to perform forward uncertainty quantification studies in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model methods are based on the classical Monte Carlo estimator, but fuse predictions from several low-fidelity models to obtain estimators with greater precision given a prescribed computational budget. The effectiveness of these approaches relies on the magnitudes of correlations between the low-fidelity models and the high-fidelity model, as well as the relative computational costs of all models. Identifying and exploiting the best trade-off between correlation and cost, which ultimately depends on the selection of hyperparameters in the low-fidelity models, is a task often performed by hand or simply inspired by the deterministic understanding available for a specific application. This work extends a preliminary effort,
This paper describes the Mars transportation vehicle design concepts developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Advanced Concepts Office. These vehicle design concepts provide an indication of the most demanding and least demanding potential requirements for nuclear thermal propulsion systems for human Mars exploration missions from years 2025 to 2035. Vehicle concept options vary from large "all-up" vehicle configurations that would transport all of the elements for a Mars mission on one vehicle. to "split" mission vehicle configurations that would consist of separate smaller vehicles that would transport cargo elements and human crew elements to Mars separately. Parametric trades and sensitivity studies show NTP stage and engine design options that provide the best balanced set of metrics based on safety, reliability, performance, cost and mission objectives. Trade studies include the sensitivity of vehicle performance to nuclear engine characteristics such as thrust, specific impulse and nuclear reactor type. Tbe associated system requirements are aligned with the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Reference Mars mission as described in the Explorations Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) report. The focused trade studies include a detailed analysis of nuclear engine radiation shield requirements for human missions and analysis of nuclear thermal engine design options for the ESAS reference mission.
Proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers are a key technology in decarbonizing hydrogen production. Though the market for PEM electrolyzer systems is growing, there are concerns that the cost and availability of precious metal catalysts utilized in today’s commercial systems can limit deployment. Herein, we show that while the availability of Ir should not impede deployment in the near term, the inelasticity of the Ir commodity price is cause for immediate concern. Here we emphasize that diversifying catalyst materials, even with other precious metals, can reduce system costs and mitigate supply chain risk. Furthermore, we analyze the trade-offs between catalyst capital cost and catalyst activity for a range of operating conditions (i.e., capacity factor, electricity price). The framework presented herein is a first step toward establishing performance targets (i.e., activity, stability, material cost) for reduced precious metal and non-precious metal catalysts as a function of PEM electrolyzer operating conditions.
With a voice command or a few taps on the console, the spacecraft pivots on a dime at high velocity and gently docks to an orbiting space platform. This is the image most people have of the complex software computations and integrated hardware performance necessary for a spacecraft to successfully perform an automated launch, rendezvous, and docking. Today’s reality is that while computer operations are advancing rapidly, science fiction over-simplifies and over-sells current capabilities. This paper discusses the integration of spacecraft computer automation into the operation of one of the United States’ new Commercial Crew vehicles - the Boeing CST-100 Starliner. Lessons learned by the Boeing Mission Operations team, a private-public partnership with NASA, from conceptual design through real-time operation of the first test flight will be discussed. Focus will center on how operations has learned to use the automated software to their advantage while also knowing how to adjust the automation in response to spacecraft or mission anomalies. One goal of advanced spacecraft automation is the ability to reduce both the crew workload and the ground control footprint while at the same time increasing spacecraft and mission flexibility. Historically, crewed spacecraft required a large number of operators on the ground to use a plethora of tools to compute nominal and contingency mission trajectories. Moving those sophisticated software tools to being onboard the vehicle can reduce the need for such complex ground support. Given that today’s spacecraft software is not yet as capable or as flexible in all circumstances as the computers depicted in movies, there is usually a trade-off between software automation cost and the flexibility of that software resulting in a trade-off between what is performed on the spacecraft and what is left to onboard crew or ground control. For missions that go beyond the Moon, software that autonomously controls nearly every aspect of a crewed mission will become a necessity given the long time delays between the spacecraft and Earth’s ground control teams. The lessons learned by Boeing and its Mission Operations team, through the design and implementation of Starliner’s hardware and software automation, will be able to inform future public and private spacecraft design. As the technologies and capabilities evolve, incorporating lessons learned in successful low Earth orbit commercial crew vehicle missions, spacecraft designs will continue to improve and be able to better enable safe execution of human missions to the Moon and beyond.
With a voice command or a few taps on the console, the spacecraft pivots on a dime at high velocity and gently docks to an orbiting space platform. This is the image most people have of the complex software computations and integrated hardware performance necessary for a spacecraft to successfully perform an automated launch, rendezvous, and docking. Today’s reality is that while computer operations are advancing rapidly, science fiction over-simplifies and over-sells current capabilities. This paper discusses the integration of spacecraft computer automation into the operation of one of the United States’ new Commercial Crew vehicles - the Boeing CST-100 Starliner. Lessons learned by the Boeing Mission Operations team, a private-public partnership with NASA, from conceptual design through real-time operation of the first test flight will be discussed. Focus will center on how operations has learned to use the automated software to their advantage while also knowing how to adjust the automation in response to spacecraft or mission anomalies. One goal of advanced spacecraft automation is the ability to reduce both the crew workload and the ground control footprint while at the same time increasing spacecraft and mission flexibility. Historically, crewed spacecraft required a large number of operators on the ground to use a plethora of tools to compute nominal and contingency mission trajectories. Moving those sophisticated software tools to being onboard the vehicle can reduce the need for such complex ground support. Given that today’s spacecraft software is not yet as capable or as flexible in all circumstances as the computers depicted in movies, there is usually a trade-off between software automation cost and the flexibility of that software resulting in a trade-off between what is performed on the spacecraft and what is left to onboard crew or ground control. For missions that go beyond the Moon, software that autonomously controls nearly every aspect of a crewed mission will become a necessity given the long time delays between the spacecraft and Earth’s ground control teams. The lessons learned by Boeing and its Mission Operations team, through the design and implementation of Starliner’s hardware and software automation, will be able to inform future public and private spacecraft design. As the technologies and capabilities evolve, incorporating lessons learned in successful low Earth orbit commercial crew vehicle missions, spacecraft designs will continue to improve and be able to better enable safe execution of human missions to the Moon and beyond.
With a voice command or a few taps on the console, the spacecraft pivots on a dime at high velocity and gently docks to an orbiting space platform. This is the image most people have of the complex software computations and integrated hardware performance necessary for a spacecraft to successfully perform an automated launch, rendezvous, and docking. Today’s reality is that while computer operations are advancing rapidly, science fiction over-simplifies and over-sells current capabilities. This paper discusses the integration of spacecraft computer automation into the operation of one of the United States’ new Commercial Crew vehicles - the Boeing CST-100 Starliner. Lessons learned by the Boeing Mission Operations team, a private-public partnership with NASA, from conceptual design through real-time operation of the first test flight will be discussed. Focus will center on how operations has learned to use the automated software to their advantage while also knowing how to adjust the automation in response to spacecraft or mission anomalies. One goal of advanced spacecraft automation is the ability to reduce both the crew workload and the ground control footprint while at the same time increasing spacecraft and mission flexibility. Historically, crewed spacecraft required a large number of operators on the ground to use a plethora of tools to compute nominal and contingency mission trajectories. Moving those sophisticated software tools to being onboard the vehicle can reduce the need for such complex ground support. Given that today’s spacecraft software is not yet as capable or as flexible in all circumstances as the computers depicted in movies, there is usually a trade-off between software automation cost and the flexibility of that software resulting in a trade-off between what is performed on the spacecraft and what is left to onboard crew or ground control. For missions that go beyond the Moon, software that autonomously controls nearly every aspect of a crewed mission will become a necessity given the long time delays between the spacecraft and Earth’s ground control teams. The lessons learned by Boeing and its Mission Operations team, through the design and implementation of Starliner’s hardware and software automation, will be able to inform future public and private spacecraft design. As the technologies and capabilities evolve, incorporating lessons learned in successful low Earth orbit commercial crew vehicle missions, spacecraft designs will continue to improve and be able to better enable safe execution of human missions to the Moon and beyond.
Retail rate design and virtual power plants (VPPs) have the potential to shift customer electricity demand and provide economic benefits to utility customers. As the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads increases, retail tariff and program design can impact Bonbright's rate design principles including affordability, fairness, and economic efficiency. We model the effects of residential retail rates and VPP programs on power system costs in Massachusetts under a potential future system with high renewable energy and DER adoption. We model interactions among retail rate design, demand flexibility, and utility costs and identify trade-offs across different rate designs and VPP programs. We estimate that time-of-use (TOU) rates and VPP programs designed to avoid critical peak rates can lower overall system costs by 3.5 %-4.8 %. These lower costs translate to lower electricity bills for 62 %-91 % of customers, depending on the scenario. Although TOU rates with a critical peak VPP program can benefit all customer segments and are economically efficient, a VPP program with flat rates leads to the lowest overall bills for customers. We find that customers with loads that align with peak demand and who participate in critical peak VPP programs can underpay for their contribution to utility costs and shift costs to other customers. While our assumptions about mandatory TOU and/or critical peak pricing likely impact the magnitude of the results, the results highlight the trade-offs of these tariffs and programs and the importance of tariff and program design as demand becomes more flexible and responsive.
A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies.
We study the minimization of the cost function of a closed-circuit desalination reverse osmosis (CCRO) system, which is used for producing drinking water. The cost function is a trade-off between the specific energy consumption and the specific brine management cost. The extremum-seeking controller (ESC) manipulates the critical electric conductivity of the brine to minimize the cost function. Experiments were designed in which the composition of the feed salinity is increased to test the controller’s ability to converge to a new optimum. The ESC was able to shift the critical conductivity to a new optimum, which resulted in a 9% improvement in the cost function.
One of the challenges of systems engineering is in working multidisciplinary problems in a cohesive manner. When planning analysis of these problems, system engineers must trade between time and cost for analysis quality and quantity. The quality often correlates with greater run time in multidisciplinary models and the quantity is associated with the number of alternatives that can be analyzed. The trade-off is due to the resource intensive process of creating a cohesive multidisciplinary systems model and analysis. Furthermore, reuse or extension of the models used in one stage of a product life cycle for another is a major challenge. Recent developments have enabled a much less resource-intensive and more rigorous approach than hand-written translation scripts between multi-disciplinary models and their analyses. The key is to work from a core systems model defined in a MOF-based language such as SysML and in leveraging the emerging tool ecosystem, such as Query/View/Transformation (QVT), from the OMG community. SysML was designed to model multidisciplinary systems. The QVT standard was designed to transform SysML models into other models, including those leveraged by engineering analyses. The Europa Habitability Mission (EHM) team has begun to exploit these capabilities. In one case, a Matlab/Simulink model is generated on the fly from a system description for power analysis written in SysML. In a more general case, symbolic analysis (supported by Wolfram Mathematica) is coordinated by data objects transformed from the systems model, enabling extremely flexible and powerful design exploration and analytical investigations of expected system performance.
Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.
Plastic production from fossil feedstocks (e.g., naphtha, coal, and natural gas) is not sustainable and causes known environmental impacts such as global warming. A possible solution is to shift production pathways to use biomass, which is a sustainable feedstock that can sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. This study presents an optimization-based pathway analysis framework for evaluating the carbon footprints of the production of mainstream plastics from biomass and fossil feedstocks. We use the modeling framework to quickly navigate complex interdependencies that exist between the production pathways of different plastics and to determine pathways of minimum production cost under a range of carbon pricing scenarios. The framework interprets carbon prices as an exogenous taxation scheme or an endogenous negative value perceived by producers. The proposed approach reveals the biomass feedstock quantities needed to displace fossil counterparts and the plastics and technologies that should be prioritized. The framework can also be used for evaluating system-wide trade-offs between production costs and carbon footprints that arise from pathway interdependencies. We also evaluate hidden environmental impacts associated with the large-scale use of biomass as a feedstock, such as land use and water eutrophication that results from a significant increase in fertilizer use. Therefore, it is important to highlight that there are trade-offs between decarbonization and other environmental issues. Here, the proposed framework provides an integrative platform for basic techno-economic and life-cycle data that can be used for analyzing diverse scenarios and determining necessary technology targets (e.g., yields, footprints, and costs) to achieve required levels of decarbonization.