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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Highly Scalable Matching Pursuit Signal Decomposition Algorithm

Matching Pursuit Decomposition (MPD) is a powerful iterative algorithm for signal decomposition and feature extraction. MPD decomposes any signal into linear combinations of its dictionary elements or atoms . A best fit atom from an arbitrarily defined dictionary is determined through cross-correlation. The selected atom is subtracted from the signal and this procedure is repeated on the residual in the subsequent iterations until a stopping criterion is met. The reconstructed signal reveals the waveform structure of the original signal. However, a sufficiently large dictionary is required for an accurate reconstruction; this in return increases the computational burden of the algorithm, thus limiting its applicability and level of adoption. The purpose of this research is to improve the scalability and performance of the classical MPD algorithm. Correlation thresholds were defined to prune insignificant atoms from the dictionary. The Coarse-Fine Grids and Multiple Atom Extraction techniques were proposed to decrease the computational burden of the algorithm. The Coarse-Fine Grids method enabled the approximation and refinement of the parameters for the best fit atom. The ability to extract multiple atoms within a single iteration enhanced the effectiveness and efficiency of each iteration. These improvements were implemented to produce an improved Matching Pursuit Decomposition algorithm entitled MPD++. Disparate signal decomposition applications may require a particular emphasis of accuracy or computational efficiency. The prominence of the key signal features required for the proper signal classification dictates the level of accuracy necessary in the decomposition. The MPD++ algorithm may be easily adapted to accommodate the imposed requirements. Certain feature extraction applications may require rapid signal decomposition. The full potential of MPD++ may be utilized to produce incredible performance gains while extracting only slightly less energy than the standard algorithm. When the utmost accuracy must be achieved, the modified algorithm extracts atoms more conservatively but still exhibits computational gains over classical MPD. The MPD++ algorithm was demonstrated using an over-complete dictionary on real life data. Computational times were reduced by factors of 1.9 and 44 for the emphases of accuracy and performance, respectively. The modified algorithm extracted similar amounts of energy compared to classical MPD. The degree of the improvement in computational time depends on the complexity of the data, the initialization parameters, and the breadth of the dictionary. The results of the research confirm that the three modifications successfully improved the scalability and computational efficiency of the MPD algorithm. Correlation Thresholding decreased the time complexity by reducing the dictionary size. Multiple Atom Extraction also reduced the time complexity by decreasing the number of iterations required for a stopping criterion to be reached. The Course-Fine Grids technique enabled complicated atoms with numerous variable parameters to be effectively represented in the dictionary. Due to the nature of the three proposed modifications, they are capable of being stacked and have cumulative effects on the reduction of the time complexity.

Christensen, Daniel↗

Aqueous-based recycling of perovskite photovoltaics

Abstract Cumulative silicon photovoltaic (PV) waste highlights the importance of considering waste recycling before the commercialization of emerging PV technologies 1,2 . Perovskite PVs are a promising next-generation technology 3 , in which recycling their end-of-life waste can reduce the toxic waste and retain resources 4,5 . Here we report a low-cost, green-solvent-based holistic recycling strategy to restore all valuable components from perovskite PV waste. We develop an efficient aqueous-based perovskite recycling approach that can also rejuvenate degraded perovskites. We further extend the scope of recycling to charge-transport layers, substrates, cover glasses and metal electrodes. After repeated degradation–recycling processes, the recycled devices show similar efficiency and stability compared with the fresh devices. Our holistic recycling strategy reduces by 96.6% resource depletion and by 68.8% human toxicity (cancer effects) impacts associated with perovskite PVs compared with the landfill treatment. With recycling, the levelized cost of electricity also decreases for both utility-scale and residential systems. This study highlights unique opportunities of perovskite PVs for holistic recycling and paves the way for a sustainable perovskite solar economy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Risk-Based Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Tong, Michael T.↗

Nearest neighbour distributions: New statistical measures for cosmological clustering

ABSTRACT The use of summary statistics beyond the two-point correlation function to analyse the non-Gaussian clustering on small scales, and thereby, increasing the sensitivity to the underlying cosmological parameters, is an active field of research in cosmology. In this paper, we explore a set of new summary statistics – the k-Nearest Neighbour Cumulative Distribution Functions (kNN-CDF). This is the empirical cumulative distribution function of distances from a set of volume-filling, Poisson distributed random points to the k-nearest data points, and is sensitive to all connected N-point correlations in the data. The kNN-CDF can be used to measure counts in cell, void probability distributions, and higher N-point correlation functions, all using the same formalism exploiting fast searches with spatial tree data structures. We demonstrate how it can be computed efficiently from various data sets – both discrete points, and the generalization for continuous fields. We use data from a large suite of N-body simulations to explore the sensitivity of this new statistic to various cosmological parameters, compared to the two-point correlation function, while using the same range of scales. We demonstrate that the use of kNN-CDF improves the constraints on the cosmological parameters by more than a factor of 2 when applied to the clustering of dark matter in the range of scales between 10 and $40\, h^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}$. We also show that relative improvement is even greater when applied on the same scales to the clustering of haloes in the simulations at a fixed number density, both in real space, as well as in redshift space. Since the kNN-CDF are sensitive to all higher order connected correlation functions in the data, the gains over traditional two-point analyses are expected to grow as progressively smaller scales are included in the analysis of cosmological data, provided the higher order correlation functions are sensitive to cosmology on the scales of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High Flux Isotope Reactor Low Enriched Uranium U-10Mo Fuel Design Parameters

Activities to convert the HFIR from HEU to LEU are ongoing as part of the US Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear nonproliferation mission. Design activities to study the conversion of HFIR from HEU to LEU fuel explored different fuel design features and shapes with a uranium-molybdenum (U-10Mo) monolithic alloy fuel. This high-density alloy contains 90 wt % uranium and 10 wt % molybdenum and has a uranium density of 15.318gU/cm 3 . The goal of these studies is to generate several candidate HFIR LEU fuel designs of varying fuel fabrication complexity that meet the current HEU performance metrics and safety requirements. Recent advancements in modeling and simulation tools and design methods enabled a thorough analysis of the available design space with U-10Mo fuel. A surrogate model used this analysis as training data to quickly determine the performance of a design given specific design parameters. An optimization module used this surrogate model to quickly search this multidimensional search space given specific desired performance characteristics. This approach was made possible by the large available design space with U-10Mo fuel. Shift, a Monte Carlo tool optimized for high-performance computing (HPC) architectures, was used for faster calculation and better data management for reactor physics simulations. Once most of these design studies were complete, a new suite called the Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was developed to connect all fuel design analysis steps, making design studies more efficient and reproducible. The post-processing capabilities of these new tools are leveraged for the information provided herein. Leveraging these tools, several candidate fuel designs were selected with varying levels of feature complexity and reactor performance. This report provides design feature details for four selected HFIR LEU U-10Mo fuel designs and their corresponding performance and safety metrics. Nominal best-estimate design parameters and irradiation conditions, including fission rate densities, power densities, heat fluxes, and cumulative fission densities, are provided. Simulations show that the high uranium density of U-10Mo fuel provides a large potential design space that enables various LEU designs to meet HEU core performance metrics and safety requirements with a power increase from 85 MW (HEU) to 95 MW or 100 MW (LEU).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Independent Analyses of Galveston QSF18 Social Survey

A set of independent analyses was performed of the findings of NASA’s QSF18 data collection exercise in Galveston, TX. These analyses included development of regression-based and other dosage-response relationships between the prevalence of annoyance with low-amplitude sonic booms and Perceived Level measures of single event and cumulative exposure. They also included detailed analyses of the effects of panelist attrition; of participation reminder messages sent to panelists; the ability to determine panelist locations at the time of exposure; and the effects of rattle and vibration on annoyance judgments, among other topics. The report summarizes the implications of its findings for the design of studies of community response to carpet booms created during future deployments of NASA’s X-59 aircraft, and recommends several design measures to improve the efficiency of data collection.

sonic boom↗

Validation of the TOPAS Monte Carlo toolkit for HDR brachytherapy simulations

The goal of this work is to validate the user-friendly Geant4-based Monte Carlo toolkit TOol for PArticle Simulation (TOPAS) for brachytherapy applications. Brachytherapy simulations performed with TOPAS were systematically compared with published TG-186 reference data. The photon emission energy spectrum, the air-kerma strength, and the dose-rate constant of the model-based dose calculation algorithm (MBDCA)-WG generic Ir-192 source were extracted. For dose calculations, a track-length estimator was implemented. Additionally, the four Joint AAPM/ESTRO/ABG MBDCA-WG test cases were evaluated through histograms of the local and global dose difference volumes. A prostate, a palliative lung, and a breast case were simulated. For each case, the dose ratio map, the histogram of the global dose difference volume, and cumulative dose-volume histograms were calculated. The air-kerma strength was (9.772 ± 0.001) × 10 -8 U Bq -1 (within 0.3% of the reference value). The dose-rate constant was 1.1107 ± 0.0005 cGy h -1 U -1 (within 0.01% of the reference value). For all cases, at least 96.9% of voxels had a local dose difference within [-1%, 1%] and at least 99.9% of voxels had a global dose difference within [-0.1%, 0.1%]. The implemented track-length estimator scorer was more efficient than the default analog dose scorer by a factor of 237. For all clinical cases, at least 97.5% of voxels had a global dose difference within [-1%, 1%]. Dose-volume histograms were consistent with the reference data. TOPAS was validated for high-dose-rate brachytherapy simulations following the TG-186 recommended approach for MBDCAs. Built on top of Geant4, TOPAS provides broad access to a state-of-the-art Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy simulations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Search for Correlations between Turbulence and Star Formation in LITTLE THINGS Dwarf Irregular Galaxies

Turbulence has the potential for creating gas density enhancements that initiate cloud and star formation (SF), and it can be generated locally by SF. To study the connection between turbulence and SF, we looked for relationships between SF traced by FUV images, and gas turbulence traced by kinetic energy density (KED) and velocity dispersion (v {sub disp}) in the LITTLE THINGS sample of nearby dIrr galaxies. We performed 2D cross-correlations between FUV and KED images, measured cross-correlations in annuli to produce correlation coefficients as a function of radius, and determined the cumulative distribution function of the cross-correlation value. We also plotted on a pixel-by-pixel basis the locally excess KED, v {sub disp}, and H i mass surface density, Σ{sub HI}, as determined from the respective values with the radial profiles subtracted, versus the excess SF rate density Σ{sub SFR}, for all regions with positive excess Σ{sub SFR}. We found that Σ{sub SFR} and KED are poorly correlated. The excess KED associated with SF implies a ∼0.5% efficiency for supernova energy to pump local H i turbulence on the scale of the resolution here, which is a factor of ∼2 too small for all of the turbulence on a galactic scale. The excess v {sub disp} in SF regions is also small, only ∼0.37 km s{sup −1}. The local excess in Σ{sub HI} corresponding to an excess in Σ{sub SFR} is consistent with a H i consumption time of ∼1.6 Gyr in the inner parts of the galaxies. The similarity between this timescale and the consumption time for CO implies that CO-dark molecular gas has comparable mass to H i in the inner disks.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Design for Recycling Principles Applicable to Selected Clean Energy Technologies: Crystalline-Silicon Photovoltaic Modules, Electric Vehicle Batteries, and Wind Turbine Blades

Abstract The global growth of clean energy technology deployment will be followed by parallel growth in end-of-life (EOL) products, bringing both challenges and opportunities. Cumulatively, by 2050, estimates project 78 million tonnes of raw materials embodied in the mass of EOL photovoltaic (PV) modules, 12 billion tonnes of wind turbine blades, and by 2030, 11 million tonnes of lithium-ion batteries. Owing partly to concern that the projected growth of these technologies could become constrained by raw material availability, processes for recycling them at EOL continue to be developed. However, none of these technologies are typically designed with recycling in mind, and all of them present challenges to efficient recycling. This article synthesizes and extends design for recycling (DfR) principles based on a review of published industrial and academic best practices as well as consultation with experts in the field. Specific principles developed herein apply to crystalline-silicon PV modules, batteries like those used in electric vehicles, and wind turbine blades, while a set of broader principles applies to all three of these technologies and potentially others. These principles are meant to be useful for stakeholders—such as research and development managers, analysts, and policymakers—in informing and promoting decisions that facilitate DfR and, ultimately, increase recycling rates as a way to enhance the circularity of the clean energy economy. The article also discusses some commercial implications of DfR. Graphical Abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Moist convection and the vertical structure and water abundance of Jupiter's atmosphere

The cumulative effects of an ensemble of moist convective plumes on a conditionally unstable atmosphere are predicted by a model of moist convection on Jupiter in which the heating/cooling and drying/moistening of the environment occur through (1) compensating subsidence, (2) detrainment of updraft air at cloud tops, and (3) the evaporation and melting of falling condensate. Parahydrogen is transported as a passive tracer. Pure moist convective, mixed moist-dry convective, and primarily dry convective regimes are possible, depending on the assumed deep-water abundance, efficiency of condensate evaporation, and initial temperature profile.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗

Efficient method for estimating the time evolution of the proto-neutron star mass and radius from a supernova neutrino signal

In this paper, we present a novel method to estimate the time evolution of the proto-neutron star (PNS) structure from the neutrino signal in a core-collapse supernova (CCSN). Employing recent results from multidimensional CCSN simulations, we delve into a relation between the total emitted neutrino energy (TONE) and PNS mass/radius, and we find that they are strongly correlated with each other. We fit the relation by simple polynomial functions connecting the TONE to the mass and radius of the PNS as a function of time. By combining another fitting function representing the correlation between the TONE and the cumulative number of events at each neutrino observatory, the PNS mass and radius can be retrieved from purely observed neutrino data. We demonstrate retrievals of PNS mass and radius from mock data of the neutrino signal, and we assess the capability of our proposed method. While underlining the limitations of the method, we also discuss the importance of the joint analysis with the gravitational wave signal. This would reduce uncertainties of parameter estimations in our method, and may narrow down the possible neutrino oscillation model. The proposed method is a very easy and inexpensive computation, which will be useful in real data analysis of the CCSN neutrino signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Fuel-Efficient Conflict Resolution Maneuver for Separation Assurance

Automated separation assurance algorithms are envisioned to play an integral role in accommodating the forecasted increase in demand of the National Airspace System. Developing a robust, reliable, air traffic management system involves safely increasing efficiency and throughput while considering the potential impact on users. This experiment seeks to evaluate the benefit of augmenting a conflict detection and resolution algorithm to consider a fuel efficient, Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver, when resolving a given conflict based on either minimum fuel burn or minimum delay. A total of twelve conditions were tested in a fast-time simulation conducted in three airspace regions with mixed aircraft types and light weather. Results show that inclusion of this maneuver has no appreciable effect on the ability of the algorithm to safely detect and resolve conflicts. The results further suggest that enabling the Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver significantly increases the cumulative fuel burn savings when choosing resolution based on minimum fuel burn while marginally increasing the average delay per resolution.

Bowe, Aisha Ruth↗

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions and optimizing nitrogen-use efficiency in dryland crop rotations with different nitrogen rates

Recent interests in improving agricultural production while minimizing environmental footprints emphasized the need for research on management strategies that reduce nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and increase nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) of cropping systems. This study aimed to evaluate N 2 O emissions, annualized crop grain yield, emission factor, and yield-scaled- and NUE-scaled N 2 O emissions under continuous spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (CW) and spring wheat-pea (Pisum sativum L.) (WP) rotations with four N fertilization rates (0, 50, 100, and 150 kg N ha(-1)). The N 2 O fluxes peaked immediately after N fertilization, intense precipitation, and snowmelt, which accounted for 75-85% of the total annual flux. Cumulative N 2 O flux usually increased with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. Annualized crop yield and NUE were greater in WP than CW for 0 kg N ha(-1) in all years, but the trend reversed with 100 kg N ha(-1) in 2013 and 2015. Crop yield maximized at 100 kg N ha(-1), but NUE declined linearly with increased N fertilization rate in all crop rotations and years. As N fertilization rate increased, N fertilizer-scaled N2O flux decreased, but NUE-scaled N 2 O flux increased non-linearly in all years, regardless of crop rotations. The yield-scaled N 2 O flux decreased from 0 to 50 kg N ha -1 and then increased with increased N fertilization rate. Because of non-significant difference of N 2 O fluxes between 50 and 100 kg N ha(-1), but increased crop yield, N 2 O emissions can be minimized while dryland crop yields and NUE can be optimized with 100 kg N ha -1 , regardless of crop rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Feasibility of Recycling Discharged Microreactor Heavy Metal in Light Water and Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors: A Neutronics Analysis

Nuclear microreactors (MRs) offer unique advantages, such as rapid deployment, potability, low maintenance requirements, and operational flexibility. Their compact size makes them a promising solution for decentralized power generation, particularly in remote areas, military bases, and disaster-stricken regions. However, MRs face challenges, including unutilized fissile material at the end of life, economic inefficiency, increased heavy metal (HM) waste complicating disposal, and the accumulation of plutonium (Pu) with high 239 Pu concentrations raising proliferation risks. Here, this study investigated the neutronics feasibility of a novel three-stage fuel cycle where discharged HM from MRs is recycled and burned in light water reactors and sodium-cooled fast reactors. This approach converts discharged HM into valuable fuel, enhancing the efficiency of MR deployments while improving the safeguardability of their final waste products. Neutronics analysis demonstrated that the safety characteristics of reactor designs in each stage were minimally impacted by the proposed cycle. For two representative MR designs, a fast-spectrum MR with solid pellet fuel and a thermal-spectrum MR with TRISO (TRi-structural-ISOtropic) fuel compacts, the proposed fuel cycle reduced the uranium disposal mass flow rate by ~60%, decreased the 235 U enrichment of the discharge fuel to ~1 wt%, eliminated plutonium disposal, and increased the cumulative fuel burnup to ~580 gigawatt-day per metric ton of initial heavy metal (GWd/t-iHM) or 60% fissions per initial metal atom. Despite the significant differences between the two MR designs, the performance and infrastructure requirements of the developed fuel cycles were remarkably similar, indicating its generalizability to a broader class of MRs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Gravity Well Commercial Economics Assessment: Potential Revenue and Cost: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

In the Gravity Well Revenue Study, we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical energy-only electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as the location of the storage, on storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. We also investigated the impact of round-trip efficiency on storage revenue. We found that the relationship between storage revenue and round-trip efficiency is nonlinear. The value of improved round-trip efficiency declines as round-trip efficiency increases. In the Gravity Well Future Cost Study, we applied learning curves to predict the future cost trajectory of Gravity Wells (GrWs). Two types of analysis were implemented. The first was a bottom-up analysis that used historical learning rates for cost components, such as motors and gearboxes, and cost categories (e.g., engineering and design, etc.) to determine the learning-by-doing based single-factor learning curve. The single factor learning curve expresses the relationship between the cost of GrW and the number of units deployed (or the cumulative capacity). In the second analysis, we predicted future GrW costs via a top-down approach. This approach accounts for historical cost trends in other renewable energy and storage technologies, which have similarities with GrWs. Using a multifactor learning curve that accounts for both intrinsic (cumulative capacity) and extrinsic (the elasticity in the price of steel) factors, we estimated the future cost of GrWs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Material Model Parameters Optimization in Liquid Mercury Target Dynamics Simulation With Machine Learning Surrogates

A pulsed spallation target is subjected to very short (∼0.7μs) but intense loads (23.3 kJ) from repeated proton pulses, which knock away neutrons from the mercury atoms’ nuclei for a wide range application in physics, engineering, medicine, petroleum exploration, biology, chemistry, etc. The effect of this pulsed loading on the stainless-steel target module which contains the flowing mercury target material is difficult to predict not only due to its short but intense explosive-like physical reaction, but also the nonlinear material behavior of the liquid mercury in the structure. Injecting small helium bubbles in the mercury has been an efficient method of mitigating the pressure wave at high power level stage. However, prediction of the resultant loading on the target is more difficult when helium gas is intentionally injected into the mercury. A 2-phase material model that incorporates the Rayleigh-Plesset (R-P) model is expected to address this complex multi-physics dynamics problem by including the bubble dynamics in the liquid mercury. A parameter sensitivity study was firstly employed to understand their impact on the simulation strains. The investigated parameters included E, μ, γ, σ, n, VFgas, and gas cumulative volume curve control parameters a and b. Verification and validation results from sparse polynomial expansions (SPE) method and directional Gaussian smoothing (DGS) optimization show that the surrogate model had training error of ∼7% and validation error of ∼15%, indicating that machine learning methods and surrogate models can help optimize the uncertain parameters in the complex 2-phase material model. This approach is expected to fill the knowledge gap between unknown liquid-gas mixture material model and measured vessel strain responses.

Lin, Lianshan↗

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spinoff 1977

The National Aeronautics & Space Administration has many missions but they can all be reduced to a common denominator: to explore Earth and its surroundings, conduct aeronautical research, and put the results to work for the benefit of mankind. At times the benefit may be dimly perceived. Take, for instance, last year's monumental triumph of exploration, the landing of robot spacecraft on Mars. How, some ask, does probing a neighbor planet improve the lot of Earth's people? In two ways: scientific gain and technological advancement. Though perhaps little understood, they are concrete benefits, assets as tangible as sunshine, more valuable than gold. Technological advancement, on the other hand, offers equally important but more immediate returns. Technology is science applied. It is the ability of a society to make things that improve the quality of human existence. It is compounded of intellect and skill, which draw upon the scientific base to bring forth new ideas, inventions, materials and processes. It is, in a word, knowledge. It builds like an inverted pyramid, each level broader than the one . before as successive generations contribute to the cumulative lore. Knowledge is readily transferable. If you build a better mousetrap, you may acquire experience in the course of the project that can be applied to a need totally unrelated to mouse-traping. This transfer process has been going on since the dawn of technology. In the last two decades it has accelerated enormously, spurred by the immense flow of aerospace-stimulated technology. There have been literally thousands of spinoffs, new products and processes that owe their origins to aerospace research. Collectively, they add up to significant gain in terms of personal convenience, human welfare, industrial efficiency, and economic value.

Haggerty, James J.↗