E-DECIDER : Experience Developing Earthquake Disaster Decision Support and Response Tools
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earthquakes↗
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Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations
The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.
Ly, Vickie↗
Machine Learning Airport Surface Model
Future needs of the National Airspace System require decision support tools to adopt a service-oriented architecture in alignment with the FAA’s vision for an Info-Centric NAS. To achieve this, many existing systems will need to undergo a digital transformation from a monolithic decision support tool to a service-oriented architecture where individual services are exposed through well defined Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). To enable this transformation, NASA has developed the Digital Information Platform as a cloud based foundation for development of aviation services with a special focus towards Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) services. This paper describes the work required for the transformation of NASA’s legacy surface management system to a real-time ML based decision support system deployed in the cloud. Details of the Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) infrastructure and best practices are described which enabled the end-toend lifecycle management of ML within an integrated software system. Validation results are provided from an operational field evaluation where performance was benchmarked against the legacy approach.
Jeremy Coupe↗
Real World Applications of AI/ML in Optimizing Airspace Operations
As National Airspace System (NAS) is going through the Digital Transformation journey, data science and analytics methods can significantly contribute to improving the traditional physics-based decision-making tools. The adoption of AI/ML methods will not only help accelerate Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s vision of Info-centric NAS but also contribute to the overall objective of sustainable aviation. AI/ML can improve the ground and airspace operations by enhancing the accuracy of current decision-making tools used by the airlines and the FAA to manage traffic on the ground and in the air. Huge amount of data that gets collected during a flight. AI/ML methods can extract information from this data and provide valuable insights to make better operational decisions. NASA has partnered with the FAA and commercial airlines such as American and Southwest Airlines on this effort and has successfully demonstrated the benefits of using ML in real world environment by reducing delays and optimizing ground operations at the US airports. In 2022 itself, NASA demonstrated real-world benefits (over 24K lbs. of fuel savings, over 76.6K lbs. CO2 emission savings, and several hours of delay savings) by deploying ML based prediction models to optimize ground operations at Dallas/Fort Worth International and Dallas Love Field Airports in Texas. These tools are being deployed on the cloud for broader deployment, adaptability, and scalability. NASA is developed a reference implementation of the cloud-based platform to significantly lower the bar to development and distribution of these digital services for aviation. In this talk, I will share information about the Digital Information Platform project, the novel AI/ML based approaches used for optimizing ground operations and the opportunities to partner with NASA on these demonstrations.
air traffic management↗
Decision-Making Framework to Evaluate Opportunities for Recovery of Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals in Produced Water Networks
Oil and gas development activities require a significant amount of water. Given the environmental impacts associated with high consumption and subsequent disposal of this water, there is a need for strategies to support effective reuse of, treatment of, and/or resource recovery from this produced water. These streams can contain appreciable concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals (CM) (e.g., Lithium), which are critical for many important applications in electronics, technology, manufacturing, energy, and medicine [1]. Along with REE/CM present in produced water, other waste streams such as fly ash from coal-fired power plants and acid mine discharge present other potential sources for recovery of REE/CM [2-4]. And with increases in demand for REE/CM, the need for recovery from wastewater streams is becoming even more important. There is a need to develop effective decision-making tools to evaluate the economic and environmental potential for REE/CM recovery from produced water networks while supporting the needs of drilling and hydraulic fracturing activities. In this work, we present our progress in developing a decision-making framework to efficiently design and operate produced water networks for REE/CM recovery. Our approach considers REE/CM recovery from produced water streams alongside other potential wastewater sources. The models consider the location and capacity of storage and decentralized treatment processes as well as the design and operation of pipeline and transportation networks to connect different sources and effectively schedule inventories, reuse, and recovery opportunities. We focus on the evaluation of opportunities for REE/CM recovery with treatment constraints on composition and flow. We demonstrate this framework with an illustrative case study that features diverse production sites, storage facilities, transportation, and treatment sites. This proposed framework will be deployed in an open-source software package that is compatible with the PARETO framework to deliver analysis and decision-making tools that allow stakeholders to quantitatively evaluate potential opportunities for REE/CM recovery in produced water networks.
Pulsipher, Joshua↗
Integrating the Value of Resilience into Energy Decisions
The value of resilience can be quantified and integrated into decision making to help inform economic, resilient, and sustainable energy deployment decisions using tools and analysis. Traditionally, distributed energy deployment decisions have often been based on how much energy, or how much money, a system can save. More and more, building owners and communities are recognizing that these systems can also provide a resilience value by sustaining critical loads during an outage. In order to consider the value of resilience in investment decisions, we must quantify how much resilience a system provides, assign a value to that resilience, and monetize that value through grid services, incentives, or other methods. This presentation discusses methods, tools, advantages, and challenges inherent to the process.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Space Environments and Effects Concept: Transitioning Research to Operations and Applications
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is embarking on a course to expand human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) while expanding its mission to explore the solar system. Destinations such as Near Earth Asteroids (NEA), Mars and its moons, and the outer planets are but a few of the mission targets. NASA has established numerous offices specializing in specific space environments disciplines that will serve to enable these missions. To complement these existing discipline offices, a concept focusing on the development of space environment and effects application is presented. This includes space climate, space weather, and natural and induced space environments. This space environment and effects application is composed of 4 topic areas; characterization and modeling, engineering effects, prediction and operation, and mitigation and avoidance. These topic areas are briefly described below. Characterization and modeling of space environments will primarily focus on utilization during Program mission concept, planning, and design phases. Engineering effects includes materials testing and flight experiments producing data to be used in mission planning and design phases. Prediction and operation pulls data from existing sources into decision-making tools and empirical data sets to be used during the operational phase of a mission. Mitigation and avoidance will develop techniques and strategies used in the design and operations phases of the mission. The goal of this space environment and effects application is to develop decision-making tools and engineering products to support the mission phases of mission concept through operations by focusing on transitioning research to operations. Products generated by this space environments and effects application are suitable for use in anomaly investigations. This paper will outline the four topic areas, describe the need, and discuss an organizational structure for this space environments and effects application.
Edwards, David L.↗
Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Integration, Evaluation and Transition
NASA's Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) research activity is assessing the use of surface trajectory-based takeoff (OFF) time estimates for en route domain departure scheduling in Call For Release situations. Current aircraft departure release times computed by an Air Traffic Management decision support tool to meet Call For Release constraints are based on coarse estimates of aircraft OFF times. Uncertainty in OFF time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into an overhead stream and lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve OFF time estimates by using more accurate aircraft trajectory predictions available in NextGen airport surface management decision support tools. PDRC findings are expected to be broadly applicable to NextGen integrated arrival/departure/surface implementations. For concept development and evaluation purposes this research activity integrates NASA's Surface Management System (SMS) OFF time prediction capabilities with Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) departure scheduling functions. PDRC field evaluations are being conducted at the North Texas (NTX) Research Station. The NASA/FAA Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface Research Transition Team is using PDRC as a pathfinder for developing technology transfer mechanisms and procedures.
Engelland, Shawn A.↗
Enabling Autonomous Space Mission Operations with Artificial Intelligence
For over 50 years, NASA's crewed missions have been confined to the Earth-Moon system, where speed-of-light communications delays between crew and ground are practically nonexistent. This ground-centered mode of operations, with a large, ground-based support team, is not sustainable for NASAs future human exploration missions to Mars. Future astronauts will need smarter tools employing Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques make decisions without inefficient communication back and forth with ground-based mission control. In this talk we will describe several demonstrations of astronaut decision support tools using AI techniques as a foundation. These demonstrations show that astronauts tasks ranging from living and working to piloting can benefit from AI technology development.
Frank, Jeremy↗
Air Traffic Management Research at NASA Ames Research Center
Since the late 1980's, NASA Ames researchers have been investigating ways to improve the air transportation system through the development of decision support automation. These software advances, such as the Center-TRACON Automation System (eTAS) have been developed with teams of engineers, software developers, human factors experts, and air traffic controllers; some ASA Ames decision support tools are currently operational in Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) facilities and some are in use by the airlines. These tools have provided air traffic controllers and traffic managers the capabilities to help reduce overall delays and holding, and provide significant cost savings to the airlines as well as more manageable workload levels for air traffic service providers. NASA is continuing to collaborate with the FAA, as well as other government agencies, to plan and develop the next generation of decision support tools that will support anticipated changes in the air transportation system, including a projected increase to three times today's air-traffic levels by 2025. The presentation will review some of NASA Ames' recent achievements in air traffic management research, and discuss future tool developments and concepts currently under consideration.
Lee, Katharine↗
Simulation of Terminal-Area Flight Management System Arrivals with Airborne Spacing
A simulation evaluated the feasibility and potential benefits of using decision support tools to support time-based airborne spacing and merging for aircraft arriving in the terminal area on charted Flight Management System (FMS) routes. Sixteen trials were conducted in each treatment combination of a 2X2 repeated-measures design. In trials 'with ground tools' air traffic controller participants managed traffic using sequencing and spacing tools. In trials 'with air tools' approximately seventy-five percent of aircraft assigned to the primary landing runway were equipped for airborne spacing, including flight simulators flown by commercial pilots. The results indicate that airborne spacing improves spacing accuracy and is feasible for FMS operations and mixed spacing equipage. Controllers and pilots can manage spacing clearances that contain two call signs without difficulty. For best effect, both decision support tools and spacing guidance should exhibit consistently predictable performance, and merging traffic flows should be well coordinated.
Callantine, Todd J.↗
Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Technology Description
After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Technology Description. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Concept of Operations.
tactical departure scheduling↗
Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Concept of Operations
After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demandcapacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in DallasFort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Concept of Operations. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Technology Description. ? SUBJECT:
tactical departure scheduling↗
Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Final Report
After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows that may be subject to constraints that create localized demand/capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool, based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas/Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents research results from the PDRC research activity. Companion papers present the Concept of Operations and a Technology Description.
tactical departure scheduling↗
Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition
After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.
ATM↗
Challenges in Achieving Trajectory-Based Operations
In the past few years much of the global ATM research community has proposed advanced systems based on Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO). The concept of TBO uses four-dimensional aircraft trajectories as the base information for managing safety and capacity. Both the US and European advanced ATM programs call for the sharing of trajectory data across different decision support tools for successful operations. However, the actual integration of TBO systems presents many challenges. Trajectory predictors are built to meet the specific needs of a particular system and are not always compatible with others. Two case studies are presented which examine the challenges of introducing a new concept into two legacy systems in regards to their trajectory prediction software. The first case describes the issues with integrating a new decision support tool with a legacy operational system which overlap in domain space. These tools perform similar functions but are driven by different requirements. The difference in the resulting trajectories can lead to conflicting advisories. The second case looks at integrating this same new tool with a legacy system originally developed as an integrated system, but diverged many years ago. Both cases illustrate how the lack of common architecture concepts for the trajectory predictors added cost and complexity to the integration efforts.
Cate, Karen Tung↗
A Possible Approach for Addressing Neglected Human Factors Issues of Systems Engineering
The increasing complexity of safety-critical applications has led to the introduction of decision support tools in the transportation and process industries. Automation has also been introduced to support operator intervention in safety-critical applications. These innovations help reduce overall operator workload, and filter application data to maximize the finite cognitive and perceptual resources of system operators. However, these benefits do not come without a cost. Increased computational support for the end-users of safety-critical applications leads to increased reliance on engineers to monitor and maintain automated systems and decision support tools. This paper argues that by focussing on the end-users of complex applications, previous research has tended to neglect the demands that are being placed on systems engineers. The argument is illustrated through discussing three recent accidents. The paper concludes by presenting a possible strategy for building and using highly automated systems based on increased attention by management and regulators, improvements in competency and training for technical staff, sustained support for engineering team resource management, and the development of incident reporting systems for infrastructure failures. This paper represents preliminary work, about which we seek comments and suggestions.
Johnson, Christopher W.↗
En Route Descent Advisor Multi-Sector Planning Using Active and Provisional Controller Plans
As decision support tools are developed to support controllers in complex air traffic control environments, new approaches to maintaining situation awareness and managing traffic planning must be developed to handle the ever-increasing amounts of alerting and advisory data. Within high-density metering and other environments where flight path changes are the rule, not the exception, and where interactions between these changes are required, current trial planning approaches are limited by potential increases in workload. The Enroute Descent Advisor (EDA) is a set of decision support tool capabilities for managing high-density en route traffic subject to metering restrictions. The EDA system s novel approach builds aircraft plans from combinations of user intent data and builds controller plans from combinations of aircraft plans to effectively maintain situation awareness during traffic planning. By maintaining both active (current) and provisional (proposed) controller plans, EDA supports controllers in coordinated traffic planning both within and between sectors. Ultimately, EDA s multi-sector planning approach will facilitate a transition from current sector-oriented operations to a new trajectory-oriented paradigm, enabling new levels of efficiency and collaboration in air traffic control.
Vivona, Robert↗