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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Atmospheric drag perturbations on the Mars Observer Orbiter

The nominal launch date of the Mars Observer spacecraft is 09 - 16 - 02, with Mars encounter on 08 - 19 - 93 and the mapping orbit established on 12 - 06 - 93. Because this orbit is nearly circular at low altitude (361 km), both gravity and atmospheric drag will dominate the orbital evolution and are also the major error sources. This paper provides: (1) a summary of atmospheric density and errors for the Mars Observer orbit and time frame, (2) an assessment of spacecraft-position errors using current density estimates, and (3) an estimate of atmospheric density modeling improvement directly from the Doppler data acquired during flight operations. With an improved gravity field model, reconstructed spacecraft-position errors are at the level of 0.5 km (1sigma). However, when predicting the spacecraft's position over 14 days, the density error (at the 90-percent confidence level) dominates, yielding a down-track error of almost 70 km. By modeling the mean atmospheric density, this error can be reduced by at least a factor of two.

Esposito, P. B.↗

Autonomous Aerobraking: A Design, Development, and Feasibility Study

Aerobraking has been used four times to decrease the apoapsis of a spacecraft in a captured orbit around a planetary body with a significant atmosphere utilizing atmospheric drag to decelerate the spacecraft. While aerobraking requires minimum fuel, the long time required for aerobraking requires both a large operations staff, and large Deep Space Network resources. A study to automate aerobraking has been sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center to determine initial feasibility of equipping a spacecraft with the onboard capability for autonomous aerobraking, thus saving millions of dollars incurred by a large aerobraking operations workforce and continuous DSN coverage. This paper describes the need for autonomous aerobraking, the development of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software that includes an ephemeris estimator, an atmospheric density estimator, and maneuver calculation, and the plan forward for continuation of this study.

Prince, Jill L. H.↗

Atmosphere variability at Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter science orbit altitudes based on Mars Express Reconstructions

This paper describes the orbit reconstruction of Mars Express (MEX) with the specific goal of estimating the atmospheric density near periapsis and evaluating its variability and predictability. The desired outcome is to validate the covariance analysis assumption of atmospheric variability for the 2005 NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), as well as evaluate the accuracy of the density estimates output from the atmosphere model used by MRO. Topics covered include the MRO atmosphere model, MEX orbit determination and post-fit Doppler residuals, and atmosphere trending statistics gleaned from the orbit reconstructions.

Higas, Earl↗

Nonparametric analysis of Minnesota spruce and aspen tree data and LANDSAT data

The application of nonparametric methods in data-intensive problems faced by NASA is described. The theoretical development of efficient multivariate density estimators and the novel use of color graphics workstations are reviewed. The use of nonparametric density estimates for data representation and for Bayesian classification are described and illustrated. Progress in building a data analysis system in a workstation environment is reviewed and preliminary runs presented.

Scott, D. W.↗

Empirical estimation of densities in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 and NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 molten salts using Redlich-Kister expansion

Densities of molten KCl-NaCl-UCl 3 and KCl-NaCl-YCl 3 ternary systems have been estimated using a multidimensional Redlich-Kister model. Temperature and composition dependent Redlich-Kister functions have been used to generate binary interaction parameters in the outlined ternary salt systems. These binary interactions have been used in the extrapolation to ternary system densities. The results of the density extrapolations by Muggianu interpolation scheme provide agreement within 2–3% for the NaCl-KCl-YCl 3 liquids and 11% in NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 liquids compared to the available experimental data. Modeling NaCl-KCl-UCl 3 molten phase density with a ternary interaction parameter improved the agreement within 4%. Thermophysical modeling used in this study has shown promising results for use in other material properties, such as viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity of the molten salts. Lastly, the outlined modeling method applied in these specific molten salt ternaries can be used for quaternary or higher multicomponent molten salt systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Noise and error analysis and optimization in particle-based kinetic plasma simulations

In this paper we analyze the noise in macro-particle methods used in plasma physics and fluid dynamics, leading to approaches for minimizing the total error, focusing on electrostatic models in one dimension. We begin by describing kernel density estimation for continuous values of the spatial variable x, expressing the kernel in a form in which its shape and width are represented separately. The covariance matrix of the noise in the density is computed, first for uniform true density. The bandwidth of the covariance matrix C(x,y) is related to the width of the kernel. A feature that stands out is the presence of constant negative terms in the elements of the covariance matrix both on and off-diagonal. These negative correlations are related to the fact that the total number of particles is fixed at each time step; they also lead to the property ∫C(x,y)dy = 0. We investigate the effect of these negative correlations on the electric field computed by Gauss's law, finding that the noise in the electric field is related to a process called the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge, leading to a covariance matrix of the electric field with variance significantly reduced relative to that of a Brownian process. For non-constant density, p(x), still with continuous x, we analyze the total error in the density estimation and discuss it in terms of bias-variance optimization (BVO). For some characteristic length l, determined by the density and its second derivative, and kernel width h, having too few particles within h leads to too much variance; for h that is large relative to l, there is too much smoothing of the density. The optimum between these two limits is found by BVO. For kernels of the same width, it is shown that this optimum (minimum) is weakly sensitive to the kernel shape. Next, we repeat the analysis for x discretized on a grid. In this case the charge deposition rule is determined by a particle shape. An important property to be respected in the discrete system is the exact preservation of total charge on the grid; this property is necessary to ensure that the electric field is equal at both ends, consistent with periodic boundary conditions. We find that if the particle shapes satisfy a partition of unity property, the particle charge deposited on the grid is conserved exactly. Further, if the particle shape is expressed as the convolution of a kernel with another kernel that satisfies the partition of unity, then the particle shape obeys the partition of unity. This property holds for kernels of arbitrary width, including widths that are not integer multiples of the grid spacing. Furthermore, we show results relaxing the approximations used to do BVO optimization analytically, by doing numerical computations of the total error as a function of the kernel width, on a grid in x. The comparison between numerical and analytical results shows good agreement over a range of particle shapes. We discuss the practical implications of our results, including the criteria for design and implementation of computationally efficient particle shapes that take advantage of the developed theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

X-ray-selected candidates for the RS CVn and W UMa classes of binary stars

X-ray luminosity, spectral type, radial-velocity variation, rotationally broadened line profile, and Ca II H and K line emission data are used to identify 12 new candidates for the RS CVn class and seven new candidates for the W UMa class from spectroscopic binaries which are contained in the Einstein Extended Medium Sensitivity Survey. Under the assumption that the candidates are genuine members of each class, local space density estimates of 4.47 + or - 1.19 x 10 to the -4th/cu pc for RS CVn binaries and 8.47 + or - 3.00 x 10 to the -5th/cu pc for W UMa binaries are found. Although the density estimate for the W UMa binaries is shown to be consistent with previous estimates obtained from optically selected samples, the estimate for the RS CVn binaries is more than an order of magnitude greater than previously determined space densities.

Fleming, Thomas A.↗

Spatial patterns in occupancy and density of larval lampreys in freshwater habitats restored to a Stage 0 condition

Abstract We examined occupancy and density of larval lampreys ( Entosphenus tridentatus and Lampetra spp.) in two rivers in Oregon (USA) restored to a Stage 0 condition 1–5 years prior, using a multiscale occupancy model and a zero‐inflated Poisson mixture model. We sampled lampreys using backpack electrofishing in randomly distributed, paired, 1‐m 2 quadrats and recorded environmental data. Probabilities of occupancy and density were higher when water velocity was low, the substrate was noncompacted, and sediment was dominated by fines (<4 mm). At mean water depth (0.34 m) and velocity (0.09 m/s), estimated densities in occupied quadrats were 4.8 lampreys/m 2 (95%: 3.4–6.9) when the substrate was compacted, and fines were not dominant, and 21.1 lampreys/m 2 (95%: 17.7–25.3) when the substrate was noncompacted and fines were dominant. Probabilities of detecting occupancy in a 1‐m 2 quadrat sampled by backpack electrofishing were 0.76 (95%: 0.64–0.87) when captured after visual observation and 0.80 (95%: 0.71–0.88) with blind sweeps (i.e., constantly moving the net regardless of observation). The probability of capturing a single lamprey in a quadrat sampled by blind sweeps was 0.32 (95%: 0.27–0.37). Sampling in paired 1‐m 2 quadrats facilitated concurrent examination of patterns in occupancy and density while accounting for capture probability, which could aid temporal monitoring of restored habitats. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to document occupancy and estimate densities of larval lampreys in habitats that underwent valley floor restoration to Stage 0. We observed both lamprey genera within 5 years of restoration. Aquatic restoration that increases low‐velocity, noncompacted, fine sediment habitats could benefit lampreys.

Harris, Julianne E.↗

Pioneer 10 and Voyager Observations of the Interstellar Medium in Scattered Emission of the He 584 a and H Lya 1216 a Lines

The combination of Pioneer photometric and Voyager spectrometric observations of EUV interstellar-interplanetary emissions in the region beyond 5 A was applied to a determination of atomic hydrogen and helium densities. These density estimates obtained from direct measurement of scattered radiation depend on absolute calibration of the instruments in the same way as other earlier determinations based on the same method. However, the spacecraft data were combined with daily ll sun averages of the H Lyman 1216 A line obtained by the Solar Mesospheric Explorer satellite to obtain a measure of atomic hydrogen density independent of instrument absolute calibration. The method depends on observations of long and short term temporal variability of the solar line over a one year period, and the fact that the ISM is optically thick. The density estimates from preliminary work on these observations are H = 0.12/cu cm and H = .016/cu cm, giving a density ratio close to the cosmic abundance value in contrast to some earlier results indicating a depletion of atomic hydrogen. Estimates were obtained of galactic background emissions in the signals of both spacecraft.

Shemansky, D. E.↗

Pioneer 10 and Voyager observations of the interstellar medium in scattered emission of the He584 A and H Lya 1216 A lines

The combination of Pioneer photometric and Voyager spectrometric observations of EUV interstellar-interplanetary emissions in the region beyond 5 A was applied to a determination of atomic hydrogen and helium densities. These density estimates obtained from direct measurement of scattered radiation depend on absolute calibration of the instruments in the same way as other earlier determinations based on the same method. However, the spacecraft data were combined with daily full sun averages of the H Lyman 1216 A line obtained by the Solar Mesospheric Explorer satellite to obtain a measure of atomic hydrogen density independent of instrument absolute calibration. The method depends on observations of long and short term temporal variability of the solar line over a one year period, and the fact that the ISM is optically thick. The density estimates from preliminary work on these observations are H = 0.12 cu cm and H = .016 cu cm, giving a density ratio close to the cosmic abundance value in contrast to some earlier results indicating a depletion of atomic hydrogen. Estimates were obtained of galactic background emissions in the signals of both spacecraft.

Shemansky, D. E.↗

Pioneer 10 and Voyager Observations of the Interstellar Medium in Scattered Emission of the H 584 A and H Lya 1216 A Lines

The combination of Pioneer photometric and Voyager spectrometric observations of EUV interstellar-interplanetary emissions in the region beyond 5 AU have been applied to a determination of atomic hydrogen and helium densities. These density estimates obtained from direct measurement of scattered radiation depend on absolute calibration of the instruments, in the same way as other earlier determinations based on the same method. However. we have combined the spacecraft data with daily full sun averages of the H Lya 1216 A line obtained by the Solar Mesospheric Explorer (SME) satellite, to obtain a measure of atomic hydrogen density independent of instrument absolute calibration. The method depends on observations of long and short term temporal variability of the solar line over a 1 year period, and the fact that the ISM is optically thick. The density estimates from preliminary work on these observations are (H) = 0.12 cm(sup 2) and (He) = .016 cm(sup 2), giving a density ratio close to the cosmic abundance value, in contrast to some earlier results indicating a depletion of atomic hydrogen. We have obtained estimates of galactic background emissions in the signals of both spacecraft.

Shemansky, D. E.↗

fastKDE

This software implements the fast, self-consistent probability density estimation described by O'Brien et al. (2014, doi: ). It uses a non-uniform fast Fourier transform technique to reduce the computational cost of an objective and self-consistent kernel density estimation method.

O'Brien, Travis A.↗

Navigating Mars Global Surveyor Through the Martian Atmosphere: Aerobraking 2

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft was successfully inserted into an elliptical orbit around Mars on 9/12/97, 01:53:49 UTC. This orbit was near polar (inclination=93.26 deg) with an orbital period of 44.993 hours and apoapsis and periapsis altitudes of 54,025.9 km and 262.9 km respectively. After 201 orbits and 196 days after Mars orbit insertion, the first phase of aerobraking (AB), called AB 1, has ended; after the AB 1 termination maneuver, the orbital period was 11.64 hours with apoapsis and periapsis altitudes of 17,870.3 and 170.7 Ian respectively. Thereafter, MGS was in a science phasing orbit (SPO) and acquired data from the science instruments from 3/28/98 to 9/22/98 (orbits 202 through 572). The second phase of aerobraking (AB2) began on 9/23/98 with the first descent into the atmosphere on P574 and ended with the aerobraking termination maneuver (ABX) on 2/4/99 on A 1284. Just prior to ABX, the apoapsis and periapsis altitudes were 456.5 km and 116.7 km respectively with an orbit period of 1.973 hours, a local mean solar time (LMST) at the descending node of 2 hours, 3.6 minutes and an inclination of 92.9 degrees. AB was responsible for circularization of the MGS orbit. However, two additional orbital conditions had to be satisfied simultaneously. These were a) complete AB2 when the LMST at the descending node was close to 2:00 am and b) the inclination was at 93.0 degrees. This paper describes the navigation of MGS throughout AB2; a companion paper describes the strategy and plan for aerobraking. Navigation challenges involved: a) the estimation of an atmospheric density model for every drag pass or periapsis-passage by analyzing doppler tracking data, b) the generation of a short-term, that is over one to several orbits, accurate atmospheric density predictions, c) maintaining the spacecraft's orbit within upper and lower bounds of atmospheric density or dynamic pressure during each periapsis-passage, and d) the prediction of accurate periapsis-passage times (Tp) over one to fifteen orbits. The density estimation and analysis procedure, evaluation of almost 700 atmospheric densities throughout AB2, the variation and accuracy of density predictions, the Tp prediction accuracy and how effectively we terminated AB2 are the basis of this paper and shall be presented in detail. A summary overview of AB2 is given.

Esposito, P.↗

Monitoring D-Region Variability from Lightning Measurements

In situ measurements of ionospheric D-region characteristics are somewhat scarce and rely mostly on sounding rockets. Remote sensing techniques employing Very Low Frequency (VLF) transmitters can provide electron density estimates from subionospheric wave propagation modeling. Here we discuss how lightning waveform measurements, namely sferics and tweeks, can be used for monitoring the D-region variability and day-night transition, and for local electron density estimates. A brief comparison among D-region aeronomy models is also presented.

Simoes, Fernando↗

BAOBAB (Big And Outrageously Bold Asteroid Belt) Project

One of the intriguing results of NASA's Dawn mission is the composition and structure of the Main Asteroid Belt's only known dwarf planet, Ceres [1]. It has a top layer of dehydrated clays and salts [2] and an icy-rocky mantle [3,4]. It is widely known that the asteroid belt failed to accrete as a planet by resonances between the Sun and Jupiter. About 20-30 asteroids >100 km diameter are probably differentiated protoplanets [5]. 1) how many more and which ones are fragments of protoplanets? 2) How many and which ones are primordial rubble piles left over from condensation of the solar nebula? 3) How would we go about gaining better and more complete characterization of the mass, interior structure and composition of the Main Belt asteroid population? 4) What is the relationship between asteroids and ocean worlds? Bulk parameters such as the mass, density, and porosity, are important to characterize the structure of any celestial body, and for asteroids in particular, they can shed light on the conditions in the early solar system. Asteroid density estimates exist but currently they are often based on assumed properties of taxonomic classes, or through astronomical survey data where interactions with asteroids are weak at best resulting in large measurement uncertainty. We only have direct density estimates from spacecraft encounters for a few asteroids at this time. Knowledge of the asteroids is significant not only to understand their role in solar system workings, but also to assess their potential as space resources, as impact hazards on Earth, or even as harboring life forms. And for the distant future, we want to know if the idea put forth in a contest sponsored by Physics Today, to surface the asteroids into highly reflecting, polished surfaces and use them as a massively segmented mirror for astrophysical exploration [6], is feasible.

Asteroid Belt↗

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a central challenge in UQ, especially for large-scale models. We propose to develop the mathematical tools to address these challenges in the context of extreme-scale problems. 4. Parallel scalable algorithms for Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED). Bayesian inversion yields quantified uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be propagated forward through the model to yield uncertainty in outputs of interest. This opens the way for designing new experiments to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameters and model predictions. Such experimental design problems have been intractable for large-scale problems using conventional methods; we will create OED algorithms that exploit the structure of the PDE model and the parameter-to-output map to overcome these challenges. Parallel algorithms for these four problems were created, analyzed, prototyped, implemented, tuned, and scaled up for leading-edge supercomputers, including UT-Austin’s own 10 petaflops Stampede system, ANL’s Mira system, and ORNL’s Titan system. While our focus is on fundamental mathematical/computational methods and algorithms, we will assess our methods on model problems derived from several DOE mission applications, including multiscale mechanics and ice sheet dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗