Efficient Sampling of Climate Models using Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design
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At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.
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The interfacial area, also known as the effective mass transfer area, is a key factor for determining the mass transfer for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture via the chemical absorption process in a packed column, and thus the overall capture efficiency of the packed column. Most of the widely used empirical and semi-empirical models for interfacial area were derived indirectly through absorption mass transfer with simplifications based on fast chemical kinetics. This report presents the comprehensive unique multiscale approach to develop a surrogate model for effective mass transfer area in structured packed columns that accounts local hydrodynamics as well as variation in physical properties, and changes in solid surface characteristics.
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In this conference paper, we propose a superstructure-based approach to finding the optimal pathways for recovering rare earth elements in their commercialized rare earth oxide form from end-of-life HDDs. The proposed superstructure was modeled as a MILP optimization problem, selecting the net present value as the objective function. Whenever possible, costing data taken from the literature was used to inform this mode. However, due to the novelty of this research area data were often not available thus requiring the generation of flowsheets that were implemented in Aspen Plus. To establish the base case optimal result, projections for the number of EOL HDDs in the U.S. available for recycling and estimates of the projected rare earth oxide prices over the lifetime of the plant were used to inform the model. The model was then expanded to include the recycling of EOL HDDs generated prior to the beginning of plant production (period ranging from 2006 through 2024).
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Information asymmetry between the Distribution System Operator (DSO) and Distributed Energy Resource Aggregators (DERAs) obstructs designing effective incentives for voltage regulation. To capture this effect, we employ a Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, where the DSO seeks to overcome the information asymmetry and refine its incentive strategies by learning from DERA behavior over multiple iterations. We introduce a model-based online learning algorithm for the DSO, aimed at inferring the relationship between incentives and DERA responses. Given the uncertain nature of these responses, we also propose a distributionally robust incentive design model to control the probability of voltage regulation failure and then reformulate it into a convex problem. This model allows the DSO to periodically revise distribution assumptions on uncertain parameters in the decision model of the DERA. Finally, we present a gradient-based method that permits the DSO to adaptively modify its conservativeness level, measured by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, according to historical voltage regulation performance. The effectiveness of our proposed method is demonstrated through numerical experiments.
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