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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

CALPHAD Uncertainty Quantification and TDBX

CALPHAD uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the foundation of materials design with quantified confidence. We report a framework and software packages to enable CALPHAD UQ assessment and calculation using commercial CALPHAD software (Thermo-Calc). This Bayesian inference framework is coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to establish uncertainty traces with a given thermodynamic database file (TDB) and corresponding experimental data points. This general framework is demonstrated with the Ni–Cr binary system. The algorithm is firstly validated on synthetic data with known ground truth. Then it is applied to real experimental data to generate posterior traces. We develop a file format named TDBX, which provides a single source of truth by combining the original TDB content and the traces for each assessed Gibbs energy parameter. CALPHAD UQ calculations are performed based on the TDBX file, from which uncertainties for phase boundaries, enthalpy curves, and solidification range are collected as examples of basic design parameters. This TDBX file with corresponding scripts are made open-source. Finally, the combination of CALPHAD UQ assessments and calculations connected by TDBX supports uncertainty-assisted modeling, enabling the integrated application of modern design with uncertainty methodologies to computational materials design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

A minimally invasive, efficient method for propagation of full-field uncertainty in solid dynamics

In this work, we present a minimally invasive method for forward propagation of material property uncertainty to full-field quantities of interest in solid dynamics. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known a priori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the evolution equations based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the driving term of the evolution equations. The implementation is model independent, storage and communication efficient, and straightforward. We demonstrate its efficiency, accuracy, scaling with dimension of the parameter space, and convergence in distribution with two problems: a quasi-one-dimensional bar impact, and a two material notched plate impact. For the bar impact problem, we provide an analytical solution to PDF of the solution fields for method validation. With the notched plate problem, we also demonstrate good parallel efficiency and scaling of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Integrating Data Quality Assessments and Radiometer Uncertainty for Determining the Expanded Uncertainty of Three-Component Solar Radiation Measurements

Accurate solar irradiance data are fundamental for determining the design and performance characteristics of photovoltaic systems. The uncertainty of solar irradiance measurements depends on many factors including radiometer design, calibration, installation, maintenance, and operational environment. The key contributors to this uncertainty can be classified as the measurement uncertainty of a particular radiometer and the operational uncertainty determined for the time of measurement. Radiometer measurement uncertainty estimates (U R ) can be based on well-established methods used as part of the radiometer calibration process. Estimates of operational uncertainties (U o ) require consideration of additional site-specific factors that affect data quality. A method is needed for establishing the accuracy of solar irradiance data by integrating an existing data quality process and measurement uncertainty estimates for specific radiometers. An algorithm has been developed to integrate data quality analyses and measurement uncertainty estimates for three-component solar irradiance data: global horizontal (total hemispheric) irradiance, direct normal (beam) irradiance, and diffuse horizontal (sky) irradiance collected at one- to 60-minute intervals. The algorithm has been tested using one-minute irradiance measurements. The goal of the project is to distribute a user-friendly software package based on the new algorithm.

data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2021

The IDAES process modeling framework and model library—Flexibility for process simulation and optimization

Abstract Energy systems and manufacturing processes of the 21st century are becoming increasingly dynamic and interconnected, which require new capabilities to effectively model and optimize their design and operations. Such next generation computational tools must leverage state‐of‐the‐art techniques in optimization and be able to rapidly incorporate new advances. To address these requirements, we have developed the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform, which builds on the strengths of both process simulators (model libraries) and algebraic modeling languages (advanced solvers). This paper specifically presents the IDAES Core Modeling Framework (IDAES‐CMF), along with a case study demonstrating the application of the framework to solve process optimization problems. Capabilities provided by this framework include a flexible, modifiable, open‐source platform for optimization of process flowsheets utilizing state‐of‐the‐art solvers and solution techniques, fully open and extensible libraries of dynamic unit operations models and thermophysical property models, and integrated support for superstructure‐based conceptual design and optimization under uncertainty.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Gaussian process metamodels and sequential designs for noisy level set estimation

Abstract We consider the problem of learning the level set for which a noisy black-box function exceeds a given threshold. To efficiently reconstruct the level set, we investigate Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. Our focus is on strongly stochastic simulators, in particular with heavy-tailed simulation noise and low signal-to-noise ratio. To guard against noise misspecification, we assess the performance of three variants: (i) GPs with Student- t observations; (ii) Student- t processes (TPs); and (iii) classification GPs modeling the sign of the response. In conjunction with these metamodels, we analyze several acquisition functions for guiding the sequential experimental designs, extending existing stepwise uncertainty reduction criteria to the stochastic contour-finding context. This also motivates our development of (approximate) updating formulas to efficiently compute such acquisition functions. Our schemes are benchmarked by using a variety of synthetic experiments in 1–6 dimensions. We also consider an application of level set estimation for determining the optimal exercise policy of Bermudan options in finance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diversifying Composition Leads to Hierarchical Composites with Design Flexibility and Structural Fidelity

Although significant progress has been made in the self-assembly of nanostructures, present successes heavily rely on precision in building block design, composition, and pair interactions. These requirements fundamentally limit our ability to synthesize macroscopic materials where the likelihood of impurity inclusion escalates and, more importantly, to access molecular-to-nanoscopic-to-microscopic-to-macroscopic hierarchies, since the types and compositions of building blocks vary at each stage. Inspired by biological blends and high-entropy alloys, we hypothesize that diversifying the blend’s composition can overcome these limitations. Increasing the number of components increases mixing entropy, leading to the dispersion of different components and, as a result, enhances interphase miscibility, weakens the dependence on specific pair interactions, and enables long-range cooperativity. This hypothesis is validated in complex blends containing small molecules, block copolymer-based supramolecules, and nanoparticles/colloidal particles. Hierarchically structured composites can be obtained with formulation flexibility in the filler selection and blend composition. It is worth noting that, by adding small molecules, we can solve the size constraint that plagues traditional block copolymer/nanoparticle blends. Detailed characterization and simulation further confirm that each component is distributed to locally mediate unfavorable interactions, cooperatively mitigate composition fluctuations, and retain structural fidelity. Furthermore, the blends have sufficient mobility to access tunable microstructures without compromising the order of the nanostructure. Besides establishing a kinetically viable pathway to release current constraints in the composite design and to navigate uncertainties during structure formation over multiple length scales, the present study demonstrates that entropy-driven behaviors can be realized in systems beyond high-entropy alloys despite inherent differences between metal alloys and organic/inorganic hybrids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Multiplexed Control and Modeling of Optogenetic Systems Using the High-Throughput Optogenetic Platform, Lustro

The ability to control cellular processes using optogenetics is inducer-limited, with most optogenetic systems responding to blue light. To address this limitation, we leverage an integrated framework combining Lustro, a powerful high-throughput optogenetics platform, and machine learning tools to enable multiplexed control over blue light-sensitive optogenetic systems. Specifically, we identify light induction conditions for sequential activation as well as preferential activation and switching between pairs of light-sensitive split transcription factors in the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We use the high-throughput data generated from Lustro to build a Bayesian optimization framework that incorporates data-driven learning, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design to enable the prediction of system behavior and the identification of optimal conditions for multiplexed control. This work lays the foundation for designing more advanced synthetic biological circuits incorporating optogenetics, where multiple circuit components can be controlled using designer light induction programs, with broad implications for biotechnology and bioengineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of electron transport models on capillary discharge plasmas

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) can be used to model capillary discharge waveguides in laser-wakefield accelerators. However, the predictive capability of MHD can suffer due to poor microscopic closure models. Here, we study the impact of electron heating and thermal conduction on the capillary waveguide performance as part of an effort to understand and quantify uncertainties in modeling and designing next-generation plasma accelerators. To do so, we perform two-dimensional high-resolution MHD simulations using an argon-filled capillary discharge waveguide with three different electron transport coefficients models. The models tested include (i) Davies et al., (ii) Spitzer, and (iii) Epperlein–Haines (EH). We found that the EH model overestimates the electron temperature inside the channel by over 20% while predicting a lower azimuthal magnetic field. Furthermore, the Spitzer model, often used in MHD simulations for plasma-based accelerators, predicts a significantly higher electron temperature than the other models suggest.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrusive approaches as a step towards accounting for stochasticity in wind turbine design

Current wind turbine design methods require tens of thousands of time-domain simulations and use different random seeds to account for the stochasticity of the environmental conditions. The account of stochasticity is nonintrusive because the sampling method calls a deterministic model multiple times without changing its underlying equations. In this work, we investigate and demonstrate using simple proof of concepts how intrusive approaches can be used to directly account for stochasticity in the equations representing a mechanical system. Our long term goal is to apply such methodology to the design of wind turbines without requiring an excessive number of simulations. Intrusive methods manipulate stochastic variables directly to provide the probability density functions (PDFs) of the states and outputs at any time as functions of the PDFs of the inputs. We illustrate how different methods can be used with a reduced-order model of a wind turbine with one degree of freedom and for linear and nonlinear models. We discuss how the methods can be extended and what it will take to apply them to a level of fidelity similar to current state-of-the-art wind turbine design tools.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Model-Reference Adaptive Direct-Power Control Scheme for Grid-Interactive Inverters

This paper develops an adaptive direct power control scheme for grid-interactive inverters while the control parameters are adaptively adjusted as the grid and filter parameters vary under different conditions. To demonstrate the efficacy and robustness of the adaptive operation, the performance of the adaptive controller is compared with a typical direct power controller by estimating the filter and grid impedances using a model reference parameter estimation technique with small signal injection. The simulation results verify that the developed methodology can track the reference power setpoints under output circuit parameter uncertainties while the typical design leads to instability. To improve the performance of the adaptive technique and eliminate the need for filter parameter estimation, a Lyapunov stability criterion-based model-reference adaptive direct power controller is designed to track the filter impedance. The developed method was tested using MATLAB/Simulink software to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results verify that adaptively tuning the control parameter can still maintain stable operation if the control gains are poorly selected while applying the classical method leads to abnormal operation or instability.

Gursoy, Mehmetcan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rethinking the Price Formation Problem–Part 2: Rewarding Flexibility and Managing Price Risk

In this study, part 1 of this two-part paper describes the impact that uncertainty has on the design and analysis of price formation policies in the non-convex auctions conducted by U.S. wholesale electricity market operators. Using first a toy model and then a large-scale test system, Part 2 demonstrates the difference in prices under the idealized benchmark of ex ante convex hull pricing defined in Part 1 versus existing methods, in particular documenting the potential for suppression of volatility and therefore under-compensation of flexibility by existing methods. The examples highlight that inefficient spot price formation can induce inefficient forward commitments of generators, necessitating out-of-market intervention to restore a reliable and efficient operating plan.Given the potential side effects of existing policies for investment and operation, we suggest two elements in a reoriented approach to the price formation problem: first ensuring that prices exhibit full-strength volatility, and second ensuring that risk-averse market participants have sufficient ability to manage this volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗