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NASA NTRS2018

The GMAO Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System: Version 2.0

This document describes the implementation and usage of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (Hybrid EVADAS). Its aim is to provide comprehensive guidance to users of GEOS ADAS interested in experimenting with its hybrid functionalities. The document is also aimed at providing a short summary of the state-of-science in this release of the hybrid system. As explained here, the ensemble data assimilation system (EnADAS) mechanism added to GEOS ADAS to enable hybrid data assimilation applications has been introduced to the pre-existing machinery of GEOS in the most non-intrusive possible way. Only very minor changes have been made to the original scripts controlling GEOS ADAS with the objective of facilitating its usage by both researchers and the GMAO's near-real-time Forward Processing applications. In a hybrid scenario two data assimilation systems run concurrently in a two-way feedback mode such that: the ensemble provides background ensemble perturbations required by the ADAS deterministic (typically high resolution) hybrid analysis; and the deterministic ADAS provides analysis information for recentering of the EnADAS analyses and information necessary to ensure that observation bias correction procedures are consistent between both the deterministic ADAS and the EnADAS. The nonintrusive approach to introducing hybrid capability to GEOS ADAS means, in particular, that previously existing features continue to be available. Thus, not only is this upgraded version of GEOS ADAS capable of supporting new applications such as Hybrid 3D-Var, 3D-EnVar, 4D-EnVar and Hybrid 4D-EnVar, it remains possible to use GEOS ADAS in its traditional 3D-Var mode which has been used in both MERRA and MERRA-2. Furthermore, as described in this document, GEOS ADAS also supports a configuration for exercising a purely ensemble-based assimilation strategy which can be fully decoupled from its variational component. We should point out that Release 1.0 of this document was made available to GMAO in mid-2013, when we introduced Hybrid 3D-Var capability to GEOS ADAS. This initial version of the documentation included a considerably different state-of-science introductory section but many of the same detailed description of the mechanisms of GEOS EnADAS. We are glad to report that a few of the desirable Future Works listed in Release 1.0 have now been added to the present version of GEOS EnADAS. These include the ability to exercise an Ensemble Prediction System that uses the ensemble analyses of GEOS EnADAS and (a very early, but functional version of) a tool to support Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact applications.

Todling, Ricardo↗
NASA NTRS2018

Automated Impact Assessment: A New Approach to ISS Payload Operations Anomaly Response

The International Space Station (ISS) Payload Operations and Integration Center (POIC) is undergoing rapid growth as the space station program focuses on science and commercial activities. The ISS is expanding its onboard capabilities to support additional science activities. In parallel, the POIC is expanding the capabilities of our operations tools to support the higher pace of payload activities being executed each week. An effect of these changes is that anomaly resolution has become more challenging. In the event of a real-time system fault, operators are responsible for analyzing telemetry displays, anomaly monitoring tools, documentation, and system models in order to produce failure impacts and recovery strategies. This approach to operations relies on the operator to ingest, process, and analyze information from an array of deterministic sources to provide actionable data on impacted systems and activities. Changing the existing approach of anomaly response is necessary if the ISS community is to succeed in the age of science and commercialization of space. The creation of a tool that captures deterministic technical systems knowledge and integrates existing telemetry, documentation, and planning information will allow the burden of impact assessment to be automated, thereby allowing the operator to focus on non-deterministic tasks, such as recovering failed systems and restoring critical payload operations.

Hall, R. Mason↗
NASA NTRS2018

Operator Trust Function for Predicted Drone Arrival

To realize the full benefit from autonomy, systems will have to react to unknown events and uncertain dynamic environments. The resulting number of behaviors is essentially infinite; thus, the system is effectively non-deterministic but an operator needs to understand and trust the actions of the autonomous vehicles. This research began to tackle non-deterministic systems and trust by beginning to develop a user trust function based on intent information displayed and the prescribed bounds on allowable behaviors/actions of the non-deterministic system. Linear regression shows promise on being able to predict a person’s confidence of the machine’s prediction. Linear regression techniques indicated that subject characteristics, scenario difficulty, the experience with the system, and confidence earlier in the scenario account for approximately 60% of the variation in confidence ratings. This paper details the specifics of the liner regression model – essentially a trust function – for predicting a person’s confidence.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States

A large set of deterministic and ensemble forecasts was produced to identify the optimal spacing for forecasting U.S. East Coast snowstorms. WRF forecasts were produced on cloud-allowing (~1-km grid spacing) and convection-allowing (3–4 km) grids, and compared against forecasts with parameterized convection (>~10 km). Performance diagrams were used to evaluate 19 deterministic forecasts from the winter of 2013–14. Ensemble forecasts of five disruptive snowstorms spanning the years 2015–18 were evaluated using various methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. While deterministic forecasts using cloud-allowing grids were not better than convection-allowing forecasts, both had lower bias and higher success ratios than forecasts with parameterized convection. All forecasts were underdispersive. Nevertheless, forecasts on the higher-resolution grids were more reliable than those with parameterized convection. Forecasts on the cloud-allowing grid were best able to discriminate areas that received heavy snow and those that did not, while the forecasts with parameterized convection were least able to do so. It is recommended to use convection-resolving and (if computationally possible) to use cloud-allowing forecast grids when predicting East Coast winter storms.

Snowstorms↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robust Design Under Uncertainty of Hypersonic Inlets

The objective of this work is to optimize scramjet inlet designs under uncertainty at multiple fidelity levels. Optimizations are performed for both deterministic and stochastic conditions. For stochastic conditions, robust design is used to minimize the variance in system performance in addition to optimizing mean system performance. Uncertainty quantification is performed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. Comparisons are made between low-fidelity analysis and high-fidelity analysis, as well as deterministic optimization and robust optimization. Results indicate that the general design trend of previous inlet optimization techniques is recovered for the external compression portion of an inlet. For the internal compression portion of an inlet, when viscous effects become more significant and boundary layer separation becomes more likely, the optimal trend departs from previous results. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification methods are found to substantially reduce the computation time of robust design while obtaining results that nearly match those of high-fidelity analysis. Robust optimization is found to decrease the standard deviation of throat Mach number by up to 40% compared to deterministic optimization. Changes in the design variables and total turning that lead to robust scramjet inlets are identified and linked back to fundamental physical principles through the theta-beta-Mach function.

Hypersonic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Moon to Mars Autonomous Habitat Status

NASA is developing a strategy for sending humans to the Mars vicinity, known broadly as the Moon to Mars (M2M) Campaign. A critical part of this campaign is the development of in-space and surface habitation systems capable of substantially extending human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Mars missions feature an in-space transit habitat capable of supporting crews of four on ~850-1200-day missions, including transit to and from Mars and time in Mars orbit. Surface and transit habitats are complex elements which must keep crewmembers healthy and productive in deep-space environments with limited resources, long rescue times in contingency situations, and communication delays; all within constrained mass, volume, and power budgets. These habitats provide crew both living and workspace as well as most of the resources needed to support crew life. For deep space habitats, automation needs to be employed due to latency and for significant amounts of time when the habitats are uncrewed. Automation of systems is possible in space applications, but there are limitations. Outside of the Earth’s (or any) magnetosphere, radiation environments are harsh to both the physical hardware and the software components. Radiation (charged particles and ionizing electromagnetic waves) degrades and damages the hardware and causes single event upsets (SEUs) in software. If the hardware is damaged, data can be lost, or control actions not made. For software, SEUs cause algorithms to result in different solutions, or incorrect commands to be sent out. This means that algorithms and hardware used for deep space systems are different than what is used on Earth. Radiation-tolerant hardware is generations behind the current state-of-the-art hardware. Recent NASA missions, such as James Webb Space Telescope, continue to rely on older technologies such as the RAD750 processor, and the most advanced processors are still single core and less than 1.5 GHz. There have been attempts to use higher performance processors, but these often take multiple mitigation steps to handle the radiation environments, which limits the processing power and/or throughput. Current techniques for radiation mitigation have been redundancies, voting, physical separation of hardware, encasing materials, under-clocking hardware, and more. Some radiation mitigation techniques do provide benefits such as having a redundant system to improve the probability that a system will be available when needed. Autonomous software systems will have fewer interactions with humans on deep space missions and therefore need to be able to handle more off-nominal conditions. Microgravity also complicates the autonomous aspects of the mission because autonomous systems are usually built from known deterministic states, but microgravity causes physical objects to shift and move changing the location an autonomous system placed the object. Not only does the software need to be reliable and deterministic, losing resources due to a software error is not only costly but detrimental to reputation. The combination of having lower performance hardware and having to be able to verify and deterministically run software and an ever-changing environment makes deep space autonomous systems more complicated. Multiple gaps have been identified including verification of autonomous software algorithms (including artificial intelligence and machine learning), higher performance processors (graphics and general purpose), high speed networks (onboard and transmissions), memory, power distribution, data security, and variations from these. These gaps need to be closed for more advanced systems to be deployed and reduce the size, weight, and power impacts on the habitats.

Scott B. Tashakkor↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRS1971

Optimal limited state variable feedback controllers for linear systems.

Optimized static and dynamic linear system compensator designs with a priori fixed dimensions are discussed. Expressions are derived to determine the parameters of these designs, including the fixed-gain output feedback, the time-varying output feedback, and time-invariant compensation. A relevant deterministic off-line optimization problem is formulated, and the properties of a solution to the problem are analyzed. A unified design philosophy for limited state-variable control problems of essentially deterministic systems is developed. The philosophy incorporates design constraints, a careful selection of performance criteria, and interpretation of the results.

Levine, W. S.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Incomplete state feedback for systems with parameter uncertainty and random disturbances

A unified design philosophy is presented for limited state feedback control problems with parameter uncertainty for both deterministic and stochastic problems. Two approaches are considered: linear compensator for the deterministic problem with parameter uncertainty, and for the single input-single output system with parameter uncertainty, a model on order equal to that of the system less the number of zeroes. The limitations of these approaches are discussed along with suggestions for further research.

Basuthakur, S.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Control of Finite-State, Finite Memory Stochastic Systems

A generalized problem of stochastic control is discussed in which multiple controllers with different data bases are present. The vehicle for the investigation is the finite state, finite memory (FSFM) stochastic control problem. Optimality conditions are obtained by deriving an equivalent deterministic optimal control problem. A FSFM minimum principle is obtained via the equivalent deterministic problem. The minimum principle suggests the development of a numerical optimization algorithm, the min-H algorithm. The relationship between the sufficiency of the minimum principle and the informational properties of the problem are investigated. A problem of hypothesis testing with 1-bit memory is investigated to illustrate the application of control theoretic techniques to information processing problems.

Sandell, Nils R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Mathematical crew motion disturbance models for spacecraft control system design

Several techniques for modeling the disturbances to a spacecraft's attitude caused by moving crew members are presented. These disturbances can be the largest moments acting on a manned spacecraft, and knowledge of their effect is important in the sizing, design, and analysis/simulation of spacecraft attitude control systems. The modeling techniques are identified as two principal types: deterministic and stochastic. Three techniques of each type are presented. The deterministic models include point-mass motion derivatives and a discussion on dynamic models of moving crew members. The stochastic techniques are highlighted by a Fourier transform method and the representation of long-term crew disturbance activities as outputs from appropriately designed filters. A z-transform technique is developed to obtain a difference-equation form of stochastic models for use on digital computers. An appendix derives spacecraft equations of motion which can be used with many of the models discussed.

Conway, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

State equations for an n-body spacecraft

Considerable attention, in the open literature, is being focused on the problem of developing a suitable set of deterministic dynamical equations for a complex spacecraft. The present paper addresses the problem of determining a set of state equations for an n-body spacecraft. The approach used in obtaining the state equations involves the application and interpretation of advanced dynamical principles. This set of state equations can be effectively used in the development of a stochastic controller for the spacecraft (in this latter development, the deterministic model developed in the present paper will be appropriately corrupted by plant noise). The major effort in the paper revolves around the determination of the plant matrices and the specification of the state vector and the control vector.

Larson, V.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Position error propagation in the simplex strapdown navigation system

The results of an analysis of the effects of deterministic error sources on position error in the simplex strapdown navigation system were documented. Improving the long term accuracy of the system was addressed in two phases: understanding and controlling the error within the system, and defining methods of damping the net system error through the use of an external reference velocity or position. Review of the flight and ground data revealed error containing the Schuler frequency as well as non-repeatable trends. The only unbounded terms are those involving gyro bias and azimuth error coupled with velocity. All forms of Schuler-periodic position error were found to be sufficiently large to require update or damping capability unless the source coefficients can be limited to values less than those used in this analysis for misalignment and gyro and accelerometer bias. The first-order effects of the deterministic error sources were determined with a simple error propagator which provided plots of error time functions in response to various source error values.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

Shuttle onboard IMU alignment methods

The current approach to the shuttle IMU alignment is based solely on the Apollo Deterministic Method. This method is simple, fast, reliable and provides an accurate estimate for the present cluster to mean of 1,950 transformation matrix. If four or more star sightings are available, the application of least squares analysis can be utilized. The least squares method offers the next level of sophistication to the IMU alignment solution. The least squares method studied shows that a more accurate estimate for the misalignment angles is computed, and the IMU drift rates are a free by-product of the analysis. Core storage requirements are considerably more; estimated 20 to 30 times the core required for the Apollo Deterministic Method. The least squares method offers an intermediate solution utilizing as much data that is available without a complete statistical analysis as in Kalman filtering.

Henderson, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1976

On optimal control of linear systems in the presence of multiplicative noise

This correspondence considers the problem of optimal regulator design for discrete time linear systems subjected to white state-dependent and control-dependent noise in addition to additive white noise in the input and the observations. A pseudo-deterministic problem is first defined in which multiplicative and additive input disturbances are present, but noise-free measurements of the complete state vector are available. This problem is solved via discrete dynamic programming. Next is formulated the problem in which the number of measurements is less than that of the state variables and the measurements are contaminated with state-dependent noise. The inseparability of control and estimation is brought into focus, and an 'enforced separation' solution is obtained via heuristic reasoning in which the control gains are shown to be the same as those in the pseudo-deterministic problem. An optimal linear state estimator is given in order to implement the controller.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Connective stability of large-scale stochastic systems

The procedure of decomposition-aggregation analysis reported by Siljak (1973) and Grujic and Siljak (1973) has been used in a study of the connective-stability aspects of large-scale stochastic systems. An investigation is conducted of the tolerance of a system of interconnected deterministic subsystems to both deterministic and stochastic interactions. The connective stability in the mean is considered and the connective property of stability is defined. The defined concept is included in a modification of the comparison theorem described by Ladde (1975). Attention is also given to a derivation of the sufficient conditions for the connective stability in the mean.

Ladde, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Markov information sources

A regular Markov source is defined as the output of a deterministic, but noisy, channel driven by the state sequence of a regular finite-state Markov chain. The rate of such a source is the per letter uncertainty of its digits. The well-known result that the rate of a unifilar regular Markov source is easily calculable is demonstrated, where unifilarity means that the present state of the Markov chain and the next output of the deterministic channel uniquely determine the next state. At present, there is no known method to calculate the rate of a nonunifilar source. Two tentative approaches to this unsolved problem are given, namely source identical twins and the master-slave source, which appear to shed some light on the question of rate calculation for a nonunifilar source.

Massey, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Geodetic linear estimation technique and the norm choice problem

In this work the mathematical and probabilistic background of standard linear estimation techniques used in geodesy is clarified, and their interrelationship is revealed with the help of best approximation theory and the normal equations. Emphasis is given to the separation of the deterministic solution to the approximation problem from the probabilistic justification of the metric of the approximation. Least squares prediction has been related to deterministic (exact) collocation, and minimum error bound has been identified as a prediction optimality criterion in the latter. Criteria for the optimal choice of norm in Hilbert space collocation are proposed for gravimetric geodesy problems.

Dermanis, A.↗