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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2022

Landslide Likelihood Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

The supply of electricity via power plants is criticalto the operation of many critical infrastructure systems in mod-ern society. Natural hazards can disrupt the power supply, causepower outages that can halt economic growth, and impede emer-gency response until power is restored. The proposed work aimsto predict the landslides likelihood in these critical infrastructurelocations in the Northeastern USA using integrated databases ofexplanatory variables and machine learning algorithms. First,data related to landslides are obtained and merged, includingtopographic, soil moisture, and precipitation-related data. Fiveregression algorithms, namely: Random Forest, Extreme Gradi-ent Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor regression (KNN),Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Linear regression,are utilized to predict the landslide probability and evaluatedon the dataset. The accuracy of the models is assessed by usingstatistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), meansquared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).The study results show that Random Forest outperformed othermodels with the mutual information feature selection method.It achieved an MSE of 0.0011 with mutual information-basedfeature selection and an MSE of 0.00157 without feature selection.KNN regressor outperformed the other models with an MSEof 0.00139 with correlation-based information selection. Theproposed landslide identification model with Random Forestalgorithm shows outstanding robustness and great potential intackling the landslide likelihood prediction by employing MLalgorithms.

Vasundhara Acharya↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating cavity fault prediction using deep learning at Jefferson Laboratory

Abstract Accelerating cavities are an integral part of the continuous electron beam accelerator facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory. When any of the over 400 cavities in CEBAF experiences a fault, it disrupts beam delivery to experimental user halls. In this study, we propose the use of a deep learning model to predict slowly developing cavity faults. By utilizing pre-fault signals, we train a long short-term memory-convolutional neural network binary classifier to distinguish between radio-frequency (RF) signals during normal operation and RF signals indicative of impending faults. We optimize the model by adjusting the fault confidence threshold and implementing a multiple consecutive window criterion to identify fault events, ensuring a low false positive rate. Results obtained from analysis of a real dataset collected from the accelerating cavities simulating a deployed scenario demonstrate the model’s ability to identify normal signals with 99.99% accuracy and correctly predict 80% of slowly developing faults. Notably, these achievements were achieved in the context of a highly imbalanced dataset, and fault predictions were made several hundred milliseconds before the onset of the fault. Anticipating faults enables preemptive measures to improve operational efficiency by preventing or mitigating their occurrence.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interpreting AI for fusion: An application to plasma profile analysis for tearing mode stability

Artificial intelligence models have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for various instabilities in fusion devices such as Tokamaks, including tearing modes (TM), edge localized modes, and disruptive events, but their opaque nature raises concerns about safety and trustworthiness when applied to fusion power plants. Here, we present a physics-based interpretation framework using a TM prediction model as a demonstration that is validated through a dedicated DIII-D TM avoidance experiment. By applying Shapley analysis, we identify how profiles such as rotation, temperature, and density contribute to the model's prediction of TM stability. Our analysis shows that in our experimental scenario, core electron temperature and rotation peaking play the primary role in TM stability, while density changes have smaller effects on stability. We show that off-axis ion temperature stabilizes TMs, suggesting that off-axis neutral beam heating can further stabilize this scenario. This work presents a generalizable ML-based event prediction methodology, from training to physics-driven interpretation, bridging the gap between physics understanding and opaque ML models.

Farre-Kaga, Hiro J. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United S↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Abstract Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Can cometary bombardment disrupt synchronous rotation of planetary satellites?

The distribution of craters on Jupiter's Galilean satellites Ganymede and Callisto and on Saturn's midsized airless moons is much more symmetric and uniform than theoretical analysis predicts. A number of explanations for this situation have been considered, taking into account also the possibility that impacts due to cometary bombardment might disrupt the synchronous rotation of the moons. The feasibility of such a disruption is explored in the present study. The results of this study are presented in a table. It is found that a disruption of the synchronous rotation of the considered moons by impacts is very unlikely.

Lissauer, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale contemporary recombination variation and its fitness consequences in adaptively diverging stickleback fish

Despite deep evolutionary conservation, recombination rates vary greatly across the genome and among individuals, sexes and populations. Yet the impact of this variation on adaptively diverging populations is not well understood. Here we characterized fine-scale recombination landscapes in an adaptively divergent pair of marine and freshwater populations of threespine stickleback from River Tyne, Scotland. Through whole-genome sequencing of large nuclear families, we identified the genomic locations of almost 50,000 crossovers and built recombination maps for marine, freshwater and hybrid individuals at a resolution of 3.8 kb. We used these maps to quantify the factors driving variation in recombination rates. We found strong heterochiasmy between sexes but also differences in recombination rates among ecotypes. Hybrids showed evidence of significant recombination suppression in overall map length and in individual loci. Recombination rates were lower not only within individual marine–freshwater-adaptive loci, but also between loci on the same chromosome, suggesting selection on linked gene ‘cassettes’. Through temporal sampling along a natural hybrid zone, we found that recombinants showed traits associated with reduced fitness. Our results support predictions that divergence in cis-acting recombination modifiers, whose functions are disrupted in hybrids, may play an important role in maintaining differences among adaptively diverging populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extending the operational boundaries of RMP-ELM suppression with optimized 3D field control

The use of 3D magnetic fields is one of the promising approaches to control edge localized modes (ELMs), and ITER has plans to utilize a flexible 3D coil set for ELM suppression using 3D fields. This study focuses on optimizing the 3D field spectrum to expand the operational window for n = 1 resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) ELM suppression in KSTAR. The optimized n = 1 RMP effectively suppresses ELMs throughout the entire H-mode discharge, including the first ELM crash, while avoiding the onset of disruptive locked modes in low-density L-mode plasmas. The predicted suppression window aligns well with experimental data, highlighting the challenges and solutions of using n = 1 RMP at low densities. Moreover, the optimization successfully achieved n = 1 RMP ELM suppression for the first time in ITER-relevant q 95 and shaping conditions, including cases with q95 as low as 3.6, as well as other q 95 and shape configurations. This highlights the importance and utility of 3D coil optimization while emphasizing the potential of long-wavelength low-n RMP, which will be valuable for ex-vessel coils designed to avoid complications of nuclear degradation.

3D magnetic field control↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Storage Impacts in Resilience Hubs and Other Critical Infrastructure: An Assessment Guide for Developers and Practitioners

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed behind the meter at resilience hubs and other critical infrastructure can provide economic and operational value during normal operations—such as lower and more predictable energy costs—as well as resilience and security benefits during power disruptions by maintaining essential services. However, existing evaluation approaches tend to focus narrowly on engineering performance or rely on broad socio-economic frameworks that are not well suited to behind-the-meter storage. As a result, developers, utilities, and funders often lack consistent methods for defining success, quantifying benefits, and comparing outcomes across projects. This report presents a practitioner-oriented impact assessment framework for evaluating behind-the-meter BESS at resilience hubs and critical infrastructure facilities. The framework is organized into five iterative components—developing an action plan, defining project goals, identifying metrics, collecting data and measuring outcomes, and reporting and using results—and includes a structured metric architecture spanning six impact categories. Designed for real-world constraints such as limited staffing and uneven data availability, the framework was developed, applied, and refined through real projects, and is illustrated with case studies across diverse deployment contexts.

Impact Assessment↗

NASA NTRS1993

Stationary occultations from low Earth orbit

The process of stationary lunar occultations is considered for observers in LEO. The orbit of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is used as a prototype. The noncoplanarity of the HST and lunar orbits disrupts many of the expected stationary events, and orbital drag complicates the prediction problem. In a typical year, the apparent speed of the lunar limb seen by the HST is slower than a typical ground-based event only about 0.7 percent of the time. The orbit prediction can be wrong by as much as 20 deg in 53 days, with most of the error lying in the plane of the orbit.

Percival, Jeffrey W.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Validating and Verifying Biomathematical Models of Human Fatigue

Airline pilots experience acute and chronic sleep deprivation, sleep inertia, and circadian desynchrony due to the need to schedule flight operations around the clock. This sleep loss and circadian desynchrony gives rise to cognitive impairments, reduced vigilance and inconsistent performance. Several biomathematical models, based principally on patterns observed in circadian rhythms and homeostatic drive, have been developed to predict a pilots levels of fatigue or alertness. These models allow for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and commercial airlines to make decisions about pilot capabilities and flight schedules. Although these models have been validated in a laboratory setting, they have not been thoroughly tested in operational environments where uncontrolled factors, such as environmental sleep disrupters, caffeine use and napping, may impact actual pilot alertness and performance. We will compare the predictions of three prominent biomathematical fatigue models (McCauley Model, Harvard Model, and the privately-sold SAFTE-FAST Model) to actual measures of alertness and performance. We collected sleep logs, movement and light recordings, psychomotor vigilance task (PVT), and urinary melatonin (a marker of circadian phase) from 44 pilots in a short-haul commercial airline over one month. We will statistically compare with the model predictions to lapses on the PVT and circadian phase. We will calculate the sensitivity and specificity of each model prediction under different scheduling conditions. Our findings will aid operational decision-makers in determining the reliability of each model under real-world scheduling situations.

fatigue↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the effect of MHD activity on runaway electron generation during SPARC disruptions

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities and runaway electrons (REs) interact in several ways, making it important to self-consistently model these interactions for accurate predictions of RE generation and the design of mitigation strategies, such as massive gas injection (MGI). Using M3D-C1 – an extended MHD code with a RE fluid model – we investigate the effects of 3-D nonlinear MHD activity, material injection, and 2-D axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs) on RE evolution during disruptions on SPARC – a high-field, high-current tokamak designed to achieve a fusion gain Q > 1. Several cases, comprising different combinations of neon (Ne) and deuterium (D 2 ) injection, are considered. Here, our results demonstrate key effects that arise from the self-consistent RE + MHD coupling, such as an initial increase in RE generation due to MHD instability growth, decreased saturation energies of the m/n = 1/1 mode driving sawteeth-like activity, RE losses in stochastic magnetic fields, and subsequent RE confinement and plateau formation due to re-healing of flux surfaces. Large RE plateaus (>5 MA) are obtained with Ne-only injection (2-5 × 10 21 atoms), while combined D 2 + Ne injection (2 × 10 21 Ne atoms; 1.8 × 10 22 D 2 molecules) produces a lower RE current (<2 MA). With D 2 + Ne injection, a post thermal quench "cold" VDE terminates the RE beam, preventing a steady plateau. These simulations couple REs, 3-D MHD instabilities, MGI, and axisymmetric VDEs for the first time in SPARC disruption simulations and represent a crucial step in understanding RE generation and mitigation in high-current devices like SPARC.

Datta, Rishabh [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology ↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of CenKR in the coordination of Rhodobacter sphaeroides cell elongation and division

ABSTRACT Cell elongation and division are essential aspects of the bacterial life cycle that must be coordinated for viability and replication. The impact of misregulation of these processes is not well understood as these systems are often not amenable to traditional genetic manipulation. Recently, we reported on the CenKR two-component system (TCS) in the Gram-negative bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides that is genetically tractable, widely conserved in α-proteobacteria, and directly regulates the expression of components crucial for cell elongation and division, including genes encoding subunit of the Tol-Pal complex. In this work, we show that overexpression of cenK results in cell filamentation and chaining. Using cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) and cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET), we generated high-resolution two-dimensional (2D) images and three-dimensional (3D) volumes of the cell envelope and division septum of wild-type cells and a cenK overexpression strain finding that these morphological changes stem from defects in outer membrane (OM) and peptidoglycan (PG) constriction. By monitoring the localization of Pal, PG biosynthesis, and the bacterial cytoskeletal proteins MreB and FtsZ, we developed a model for how increased CenKR activity leads to changes in cell elongation and division. This model predicts that increased CenKR activity decreases the mobility of Pal, delaying OM constriction, and ultimately disrupting the midcell positioning of MreB and FtsZ and interfering with the spatial regulation of PG synthesis and remodeling. IMPORTANCE By coordinating cell elongation and division, bacteria maintain their shape, support critical envelope functions, and orchestrate division. Regulatory and assembly systems have been implicated in these processes in some well-studied Gram-negative bacteria. However, we lack information on these processes and their conservation across the bacterial phylogeny. In R. sphaeroides and other α-proteobacteria, CenKR is an essential two-component system (TCS) that regulates the expression of genes known or predicted to function in cell envelope biosynthesis, elongation, and/or division. Here, we leverage unique features of CenKR to understand how increasing its activity impacts cell elongation/division and use antibiotics to identify how modulating the activity of this TCS leads to changes in cell morphology. Our results provide new insight into how CenKR activity controls the structure and function of the bacterial envelope, the localization of cell elongation and division machinery, and cellular processes in organisms with importance in health, host-microbe interactions, and biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected long-term effects of colorectal cancer screening disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic

The aftermath of the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the widening of disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes due to differential disruptions to CRC screening. This comparative microsimulation analysis uses two CISNET CRC models to simulate the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes. We evaluate three channels through which screening was disrupted: delays in screening, regimen switching, and screening discontinuation. The impact of these disruptions on long-term CRC outcomes was measured by the number of life-years lost due to CRC screening disruptions compared to a scenario without any disruptions. While short-term delays in screening of 3–18 months are predicted to result in minor life-years loss, discontinuing screening could result in much more significant reductions in the expected benefits of screening. These results demonstrate that unequal recovery of screening following the pandemic can widen disparities in CRC outcomes and emphasize the importance of ensuring equitable recovery to screening following the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Customizing Countermeasure Prescriptions using Predictive Measures of Sensorimotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functional tasks during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which each individual astronaut will be affected would improve the effectiveness of a countermeasure comprised of a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Due to this inherent individual variability we need to develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to predict, before actual space flight, which crewmember will experience challenges in adaptive capacity. Thus, obtaining this information will allow us to design and implement better sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that will be customized for each crewmember's unique adaptive capabilities. Therefore the goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to design sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that are customized for each crewmember's individual sensorimotor adaptive characteristics. To achieve these goals we are currently pursuing the following specific aims: Aim 1: Determine whether behavioral metrics of individual sensory bias predict sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, subjects perform tests that delineate individual sensory biases in tests of visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive function. Aim 2: Determine if individual capability for strategic and plastic-adaptive responses predicts sensorimotor adaptability. For this aim, each subject's strategic and plastic-adaptive motor learning abilities are assessed using a test of locomotor function designed specifically to delineate both mechanisms. Aim 3: Develop predictors of sensorimotor adaptability using brain structural and functional metrics. We will measure individual differences in regional brain volumes (structural MRI), white matter integrity (diffusion tensor imaging, or DTI), functional network integrity (resting state functional connectivity MRI), and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation (functional MRI). We decided to complete the data collection for Specific Aims 1, 2 and 3 simultaneously on the same subjects to increase data capture. By having the same subjects perform all three specific aims we can enhance our ability to detect how a wider range of factors can predict adaptability in a specific individual. This provides a much richer database and potentially a better understanding of the predictive power of the selected factors. In this presentation I will discuss preliminary data obtained to date.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cell prestress. II. Contribution of microtubules

The tensegrity model hypothesizes that cytoskeleton-based microtubules (MTs) carry compression as they balance a portion of cell contractile stress. To test this hypothesis, we used traction force microscopy to measure traction at the interface of adhering human airway smooth muscle cells and a flexible polyacrylamide gel substrate. The prediction is that if MTs balance a portion of contractile stress, then, upon their disruption, the portion of stress balanced by MTs would shift to the substrate, thereby causing an increase in traction. Measurements were done first in maximally activated cells (10 microM histamine) and then again after MTs had been disrupted (1 microM colchicine). We found that after disruption of MTs, traction increased on average by approximately 13%. Because in activated cells colchicine induced neither an increase in intracellular Ca(2+) nor an increase in myosin light chain phosphorylation as shown previously, we concluded that the observed increase in traction was a result of load shift from MTs to the substrate. In addition, energy stored in the flexible substrate was calculated as work done by traction on the deformation of the substrate. This result was then utilized in an energetic analysis. We assumed that cytoskeleton-based MTs are slender elastic rods supported laterally by intermediate filaments and that MTs buckle as the cell contracts. Using the post-buckling equilibrium theory of Euler struts, we found that energy stored during buckling of MTs was quantitatively consistent with the measured increase in substrate energy after disruption of MTs. This is further evidence supporting the idea that MTs are intracellular compression-bearing elements.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the Determinants of Household Capabilities Burden During Power Outages: The Case of Winter Storm Uri

Existing research primarily uses census data to identify the vulnerability of communities to hazards. These vulnerability indices provide aggregated data and are not hazard-specific nor well-validated with post-event data. In contrast, our study uses household survey data (n=1065) to understand which Texan households suffered the greatest loss of their capabilities due to power outages and other utility service disruptions during Winter Storm Uri. Inspired by the Capabilities Approach, our measures of burden include the number of household capability types disrupted during the outages (e.g., cooking, heating, refrigeration), the severity of impact for each disrupted capability, and the additional time and financial costs of coping with these disruptions. We perform a clustering analysis, and find two distinct groups in our data, consisting of ‘lesser burden' and ‘heavier burden' households. Results indicate that the households experiencing the heaviest capabilities burden were most likely to experience longer power outages and the loss of water services. They were also more likely to have a Hispanic-Latino household member, lack access to a generator, live in a rented home, have larger households with more young children, fewer adults over 65, lower household incomes, been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and more family characteristics that made life harder. We also fit a logistic regression model to assess the role of outage, household, and community characteristics in predicting differences in capabilities burden. Our results offer insights into enumerating the consequences of utility service disruptions on households, which can inform more targeted and equitable resilience strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1994

The collision of Jupiter and Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9

A simple description of the disruption and deceleration of 100-m- to 5-km-diameter comets striking Jupiter is combined with numerical simulations of the subsequent explosions to predict the fate of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Detailed numerical simulations of the first 3 min of the explosion were performed. Our numerical simulations begin either with hot cylinders with dimensions suggested by the disruption and deceleration model or with an initial wake constructed from a moving line charge. In all cases, extensive plumes of hot gas are expelled from the atmosphere. The models with wakes evolve about twice as fast as the initially confined models. Models of both types generate similar pressure waves into the planet. Temperatures and negative hydrogen ion opacities were computed. For atmospheric entry, light curves were computed. On entry the largest bolides could be very bright, possibly as bright as Jupiter for observers placed to see them, although for kilometer-size impactors the luminosity peak is obscured by clouds. For the fireball, light curves were computed from the numerical simulations. Metals from the vaporized comet provide electrons that dramatically increase the opacity of Jovian air at low temperature. The fireball rises through and above the atmosphere, brightening at first as its surface area increases, but later fading to invisibility as its temperature drops and its opacity plummets.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗