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At least 163 records · Page 9

Combining physics-based and data-driven models for quantitatively accurate plasma profile prediction that extrapolates well; with application to DIII-D, AUG, and ITER tokamaks

For design, scenario planning, and control, ITER and all other envisioned tokamaks rely on a variety of statistical and physics-based models to extrapolate to unseen regimes; most notably from low plasma current to high. A 'meta-learning' methodology for combining the accuracy of data-driven models with the generalizability of physics-based models is described and tested, yielding a 5–10 percent improvement in performance beyond either alone for the task of extrapolating time-dependent plasma profile prediction from low- to high- plasma current DIII-D tokamak discharges. Meanwhile, it is shown that both machine learning models extrapolated far-distribution and state-of-the-art 'physics-based' profile predictors fare worse than merely assuming plasma profiles do not change from their initial values. Finally, a variety of other mechanisms for helping data-driven models generalize—transfer learning, adding contextual information from physics simulators, and adding data from the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak—are attempted for similar extrapolation tasks but, in the methodology used in this paper, yield no significant improvement beyond simple data-driven models. Results are summarized in figures 15 and 16.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Distribution System Dataset Generator for AI Applications [SWR-24-75]

This software is a simple, light-weight python package to generate pytorch compatible machine learning graph dataset representing electric power distribution system. User is able to use these graph datasets to test their graph generation artificial intelligence (AI) models, link prediction AI models, graph classification AI models and so much more. This package uses grid-data-models (https://github.com/NREL-Distribution-Suites/grid-data-models) as input data format for power distribution system. NREL-Ditto (https://github.com/NREL-Distribution-Suites/ditto) tool can be leveraged to transform popular distribution system file formats such as opendss, cyme and synergi to grid-data-models.

Duwadi, Kapil

Transport of trace species deduced from LIMS observations

One of the critical problems in the middle atmosphere at this time is understanding the interaction between atmospheric motions and photochemistry, and the way in which these two processes maintain the distributions of photochemically active species such as ozone. Recent work has shown that a great deal can be learned by considering the zonally averaged distributions and transports, i.e., working in the latitude-altitude plane. This 2-dimensional approach has been used in the past in Eulerian formation. Recent work (DUNKERTON, 1978) has shown that formulating the transport problems in terms of the residual mean circulation, which has similarity to the Lagrangian mean motion, results in a more physical picture of the way in which the transport takes place. Here, data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMB) experiment are used to investigate how well the residual mean formulation works with real data, in the sense of asking how well the predicted ozone changes match those in regions of the lower stratosphere in which chemical changes may be neglected. This allows a test of the approximations that are made, and of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach to transport calculation.

Gille, J. C.

Robust anomaly detection for particle physics using multi-background representation learning

Abstract Anomaly, or out-of-distribution, detection is a promising tool for aiding discoveries of new particles or processes in particle physics. In this work, we identify and address two overlooked opportunities to improve anomaly detection (AD) for high-energy physics. First, rather than train a generative model on the single most dominant background process, we build detection algorithms using representation learning from multiple background types, thus taking advantage of more information to improve estimation of what is relevant for detection. Second, we generalize decorrelation to the multi-background setting, thus directly enforcing a more complete definition of robustness for AD. We demonstrate the benefit of the proposed robust multi-background AD algorithms on a high-dimensional dataset of particle decays at the Large Hadron Collider.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Learning-Based Building Flexibility Estimation and Control to Improve Microgrid Economics and Resilience: Preprint

This paper proposes a learning-based building flexibility estimation and control framework to improve system economics and resilience. A data-driven building load flexibility model consisting of weather forecasting and estimating load consumption is proposed to quantify building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load flexibility. A reinforcement learning-based microgrid controller is proposed to dispatch distributed generators, distributed energy resources, and build HVAC loads while taking flexibility information as one of the inputs. Simulation analysis is conducted on the model of a real microgrid in California. The effectiveness of the proposed learning-based building flexibility estimation and control in reducing microgrid energy costs and improving the sustainability of critical loads is demonstrated.

building load flexibility

Informed unsupervised machine learning analysis of dislocation microstructure from high-resolution differential aperture X-ray structural microscopy data

This study leverages high-resolution differential-aperture X-ray structural microscopy (DAXM) to probe the local dislocation structure in deformed 304L-stainless steel at small strain, by measuring the lattice rotation and deviatoric elastic strain with a sub-micron resolution. For a single grain in a polycrystalline specimen, the measured lattice rotation field over the measured volume exhibited a multimodal distribution while the deviatoric elastic strain showed a single-mode distribution. An unsupervised Cauchy mixture machine learning model was developed to resolve the multimodal distribution of the lattice rotation. By mapping the lattice rotation data associated with each Cauchy peak in the model back onto the measured volume, we identify contiguous regions of the crystal rotated near the average values corresponding to the peaks of the overall rotation distribution. These regions represent the grain subdivision in the microstructure. Finally, the dislocation density tensor was also computed and its norm was laid over the rotation field to detect the subgrain boundaries. This step provided a validation of the Cauchy mixture model for the analysis of the lattice rotation distribution. The current study highlights the integration of advanced X-ray microscopy techniques with data-driven analysis methods to uncover detailed microstructure scales in deformed crystals.

Machine learning; Lattice rotation; High-energy X-

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Data-Conforming Data-Driven Control: Avoiding Premature Generalizations Beyond Data

Data-driven and adaptive control approaches face the problem of introducing sudden distributional shifts beyond the distribution of data encountered during learning. Therefore, they are prone to invalidating the very assumptions used in their own construction. This is due to the linearity of the underlying system, inherently assumed and formulated in most data-driven control approaches, which may falsely generalize the behavior of the system beyond the behavior experienced in the data. This article seeks to mitigate these problems by enforcing consistency of the newly designed closed-loop systems with data and slowing down any distributional shifts in the joint state-input space. This is achieved through incorporating affine regularization terms and linear matrix inequality constraints to data-driven approaches, resulting in convex semi-definite programs that can be efficiently solved by standard software packages. We discuss the optimality conditions of these programs and then conclude this article with a numerical example that further highlights the problem of premature generalization beyond data and shows the effectiveness of our proposed approaches in enhancing the safety of data-driven control methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur

Applications of Federated Learning in Semiconductor Manufacturing [Poster]

As semiconductor manufacturers explore advanced data analytics and modeling techniques and data hungry machine learning models increase in popularity due to their accuracy in solving generalized problems and ability to learn complex relationships, federated learning emerges as a privacy preserving machine learning technique for preserving data privacy and ensuring intellectual property protection. Federated Learning is a machine learning technique focused on training models using distributed data that never needs to be centrally stored, allowing the use of advanced machine learning techniques without compromising data privacy, and in the semiconductor manufacturing industry advanced machine learning techniques can reduce cost and time, but maintaining data privacy is essential to maintaining a competitive advantage. This paper systematically reviews existing literature on applications of federated learning in the semiconductor manufacturing industry with a focus on identifying common themes, algorithms, and gaps within the literature to drive future research directions. The findings reveal five key themes, including improvements in quality assurance, virtual models, privacy preservation, reliable data practices, and emerging trends and developments. By identifying key themes in literature on federated learning and semiconductor manufacturing and analyzing gaps and discussed methodologies, this study highlights several potential future research directions to expand the application of federated learning techniques in the semiconductor manufacturing domain.

42 ENGINEERING

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Assessing Membership Inference Attacks under Distribution Shifts

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) exploit machine learning models to infer whether a data point was in the training set, posing significant privacy risks even with limited black-box access. These attacks rely on the attacker approximating the target model’s training distribution, yet the impact of distribution shifts between target and shadow models on MIA success remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate five types of distribution shifts —-cutout, jitter, Gaussian noise, label shift, and attribute shift —- at varying intensities. Our results reveal that these shifts affect MIA effectiveness in nuanced ways, with some reducing attack success while others exacerbate vulnerabilities, and the same shift can have opposite effects depending on the type of MIA. This highlights the complex interplay between distributional differences and attack performance, offering critical insights for improving model defenses against MIAs.

Shi, Yichuan [Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Distributed operations as applied in a large multi-instrument space mission: lessons learned from the Cassini-Huygens Program

Launched in 1997, the Cassini-Huygens Mission sent the largest interplanetary spacecraft ever built in the service of science. Carrying a suite of 12 scientific instruments and an atmospheric entry probe, this complex spacecraft to explore the Saturn system may not have gotten off the ground without undergoing significant design changes and cost reductions.

distributed

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc

Continual Learning for Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate under dynamically changing conditions, which often lead to data distribution drifts. These drifts pose significant challenges for Machine Learning (ML) models, which typically fail to maintain performance when faced with such non-stationary data. In particle accelerators, the primary sources of these data drifts include changes in accelerator settings and non-measured parameters such as machine degradation and environmental factors. Previous research has proposed conditional models to handle multiple beam configurations effectively; however, it is challenging to train the ML models on all possible configuration settings. Additionally, conditional models alone can not address performance degradation caused by drifts due to non-measured factors. These limitations contribute to a significant gap between ML development and its deployment in real-world operational settings. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. In addition, we present a practical use case where a conditional Auto-Encoder model coupled with memory-based continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance even when underlying data drifts.

Schram, Malachi [Thomas Jefferson National Acceler