SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “downscaling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2021

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

Eunsang Cho↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of High Mountain Asia-Land Data Assimilation System (Version 1) from 2003 to 2016, Part I: A Hyper-Resolution Terrestrial Modeling System

This first paper of the two-part series focuses on demonstrating the accuracy of a hyper-resolution, offline terrestrial modeling system used for the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. To this end, this study systematically evaluates four sets of model simulations at point scale, basin scale, and domain scale obtained from different spatial resolutions including 0.01° (∼1-km) and 0.25° (∼25-km). The assessment is conducted via comparisons against ground-based observations and satellite-derived reference products. The key variables of interest include surface net shortwave radiation, surface net longwave radiation, skin temperature, near-surface soil temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, and total runoff. In the evaluation against ground-based measurements, the superiority of the 0.01° estimates are mostly demonstrated across relatively complex terrain. Specifically, hyper-resolution modeling improves the skill in meteorological forcing estimates (except precipitation) by 9% relative to coarse-resolution estimates. The model forced by downscaled forcings in its entirety yields the highest skill in model output states as well as precipitation, which improves the skill obtained by coarse-resolution estimates by 7%. These findings, on one hand, corroborate the importance of employing the hyper-resolution versus coarse-resolution modeling in areas characterized by complex terrain. On the other hand, by evaluating four sets of model simulations forced with different precipitation products, this study emphasizes the importance of accurate hyper-resolution precipitation products to drive model simulations.

Yuan Xue↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

NASA NTRS2022

Thermal Hydraulic Disaggregation of SMAP Soil Moisture Over the Continental United States

Thermal Hydraulic disaggregation of Soil Moisture (THySM) algorithm was implemented to downscale NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Enhanced soil moisture (SM) product to 1 km over the continental United States (CONUS). This algorithm was developed by combining thermal inertia theory with a soil hydraulic-based approach that considers fine-scale SM spatial distribution driven by both heat fluxes and hydraulic conductivity in soils. Relative soil wetness values were estimated using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index for the thermal inertia model and using soil properties for the hydraulic model. The relative soil wetness values at 1 km from both models were then combined by using weighting functions whereby the spatial distribution of SM was governed more by thermal fluxes during times of strong heat transport and infiltration during moisture abundant soil conditions. THySM values were evaluated using in situ SM measurements from SMAP Core Validation Sites (CVS), the USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network, and the NOAA Climate Reference Network over CONUS. THySM shows higher accuracy than the SMAP / Sentinel-1 (SPL2SMAP_S) 1 km SM product when compared to in situ measurements. The accuracy of THySM is 0.048 m3/m3 based on unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), outperforming SPL2SMAP_S by 0.01-0.02 m3/m3. The ubRMSE of THySM 1km SM over the SMAP grassland/rangeland-dominated CVS sites is better than 0.04 m3/m3, which meets the SMAP mission SM accuracy requirement applied at 9 and 36 km.

SMAP↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Recent and Future Climate Change on Spring Arctic Cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

Chelsea L Parker↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Google and NASA Air Quality Partnership – A Collaboration Using GEOS-CF Data and Google Earth Engine

NASA and Google have expanded their partnership to create data and tools that help with pollution mitigation and decision making on a local government scale. The goal is to use the technologies available at NASA and Google to create city-scale data estimates and forecasts of air pollutants such as NO2 derived from the GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model. Efforts are also being led by Pawan Gupta to create a downscaled MERRA-2 PM2.5 product.

Callum Wayman↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tracking the Impacts of Precipitation Phase Changes Through the Hydrologic Cycle in Snowy Regions: From Precipitation to Reservoir Storage

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Forecasting Capabilities for Air Quality

An overview of GEOS Forecasting capabilities for Air Quality, showing the evolution from GEOS with GOCART to GEOS with GEOS-Chem. Ways to access GEOS for research scientists and engaged community members will be given, as well as examples on how the GEOS-CF forecasts can be bias-corrected and downscaled for decision making processes.

K Emma Knowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GEOS Forecasting Capabilities for Air Quality

K Emma Knowland↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Access to the GEOS Composition Forecast Model with API Development and Ingestion into Google Earth Engine

The GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model produces forecast and historical estimates of atmospheric composition and meteorology fields, which provide useful insight into air quality issues and events. In a year for which Canadian wildfires created adverse air quality conditions in the eastern United States, access to model fields such as PM2.5 are in high demand. The GEOS-CF team at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) first developed in-house solutions to improve data access via the CF API, and recently partnered with Google to ingest a collated set of model diagnostics into the Google Earth Engine (GEE) data repository. GEOS-CF model output is also being ingested into AWS storage. Creating these various open access points to GEOS-CF model diagnostics provides the public with an opportunity to easily interact with air quality information. Users are able to use a temporally consistent global grid of air quality fields in machine learning applications, mapping tools, and data informatics. Hosting GEOS-CF forecasts and the historical timeseries of these chemistry and meteorology fields in GEE allows users to create dynamic JavaScript-based air quality applications in the GEE code editor. GEOS-CF users can also access the model output via the GEE Python application programming interface (API), making it easy to perform various analyses with Python. This presentation will show two examples of accessing the GEOS-CF model through GEE. The first is an example application made in the GEE code editor which allows users to view time series plots and downscaled maps of surface level NO2. The second example exhibits using the GEE Python API to create a machine learning model to temporally gap-fill between air quality observations. These examples are an introduction to the many possible benefits of having open access to the GEOS-CF model through multiple platforms.

Callum Wayman↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aconcagua Basin Agriculture: Analyzing Hydrological Norms, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture to Assess Crop Water Demand and Water Usage in Chile’s Aconcagua River Basin

The Aconcagua basin has experienced a prolonged drought since 2010, posing a significant concern to the agricultural sector, which contributes to 12% of the national agriculture output. Reduced precipitation and warmer conditions have led to water constraints for agricultural activities. As the agriculture sector relies more on irrigation, there has been a decline in surface water availability and a shrinking groundwater supply, both primarily sourced from snow and glacial melt. This study focuses on evaluating crop water demand and water usage in the Aconcagua Basin, leveraging in-situ and available satellite data from Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), 1-km downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission IMERG (GPM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). Remote sensing hydrologic norms from pre- and intra-drought conditions provided a baseline for our water use analysis. We have identified areas of the basin where water usage is exaggerated compared to other regions by analyzing soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and vegetation index trends across agricultural lands. The study highlights the presence of irrigation and exaggerated water usage categorized by crop type while normalizing the data by the quantity of water allocation (m3/s) to each subregion. The findings have the potential to assist our partners, the Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales (CIREN) and the Ministry of Agriculture, in refining water allocation approaches; showcasing the feasibility of leveraging remote sensing and earth observation datasets to monitor agricultural practices within the context of water scarcity.

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reanalysis Activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

This talk presents an overview of recent reanalysis activities at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) as part of a multi-faceted strategy towards an Integrated Earth System retrospective analysis, coupling components of the atmosphere, ocean, chemistry, land, and ice. While elements of the atmosphere-ocean coupled Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation are being actively developed, a suite of reanalysis products is designed to provide further understanding of key aspects of Earth system coupling in a reanalysis context: The baseline atmospheric reanalysis, the GEOS Retrospective analysis for the early 21st Century (GEOS-R21C), features recent advances in the GEOS model and data assimilation, and targets the NASA’s Earth Observing System EOS and post-EOS satellite observations; GEOS-IT, a user-tailored low-resolution atmospheric reanalysis, serves as a second baseline to the NASA Instrument Teams for validation and calibration and drives a one-way coupled ocean reanalysis, GEOSIT-Ocean; PolarMERRA, a high-resolution downscaled product for the polar regions, focuses on improving the representation of polar atmospheric processes with an assessment of current cryospheric biases, and targeted improvements to surface sea ice and glacier conditions; Finally, R21C-Chem, an off-line atmospheric chemistry and composition reanalysis, includes both tropospheric and stratospheric trace gases. The diversity of these reanalysis activities presents unique opportunities for collaborations cross-teams/institutions, with new commercial data partners, and with end-user groups. This talk will discuss these opportunities and explore leveraging the lessons learned along the way on key drivers in Earth system interactions as we converge towards the next generation of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) suite.

Amal El Akkraoui↗

NASA NTRS2023

Technical Note: NASAaccess – A Tool for Access, Reformatting, and Visualization of Remotely Sensed Earth Observation and Climate Data

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has launched a new initiative, the Open-Source Science Initiative (OSSI), to enable and support science towards openness. The OSSI supports open-source software development and dissemination. In this work, we present NASAaccess, which is an open-source software package and web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data accessing, reformatting, and presenting quantitative data products. The main objective of developing the NASAaccess platform is to facilitate exploration, modeling, and understanding of earth data for scientists, stakeholders, and concerned citizens whose objectives align with the new OSSI goals. The NASAaccess platform is available as software packages (i.e., the R and conda packages) as well as an interactive-format web-based environmental modeling application for earth observation data developed with Tethys Platform. NASAaccess has been envisioned as lowering the technical barriers and simplifying the process of accessing scalable distributed computing resources and leveraging additional software for data and computationally intensive modeling frameworks. Specifically, NASAaccess has been developed to meet the need for seamless earth observation remote-sensing and climate data ingestion into various hydrological modeling frameworks. Moreover, NASAaccess is also contributing to keeping interested parties and stakeholders engaged with environmental modeling, accessing the information available in various remote-sensing products. NASAaccess' current capabilities cover various NASA datasets and products that include the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data products, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land surface states and fluxes, and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate change dataset products.

Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Access to the GEOS Composition Forecast Model with API Development and Ingestion into Google Earth Engine

The GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model produces forecast and historical estimates of atmospheric composition and meteorology fields, which provide useful insight into air quality issues and events. In a year for which Canadian wildfires created adverse air quality conditions in the eastern United States, access to model fields such as PM2.5 are in high demand. The GEOS-CF team at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) first developed in-house solutions to improve data access via the CF API, and recently partnered with Google to ingest a collated set of model diagnostics into the Google Earth Engine (GEE) data repository. GEOS-CF model output is also being ingested into AWS storage. Creating these various open access points to GEOS-CF model diagnostics provides the public with an opportunity to easily interact with air quality information. Users are able to use a temporally consistent global grid of air quality fields in machine learning applications, mapping tools, and data informatics. Hosting GEOS-CF forecasts and the historical timeseries of these chemistry and meteorology fields in GEE allows users to create dynamic JavaScript-based air quality applications in the GEE code editor. GEOS-CF users can also access the model output via the GEE Python application programming interface (API), making it easy to perform various analyses with Python. This presentation will show two examples of accessing the GEOS-CF model through GEE. The first is an example application made in the GEE code editor which allows users to view time series plots and downscaled maps of surface level NO 2 . The second example exhibits using the GEE Python API to create a machine learning model to temporally gap-fill between air quality observations. These examples are an introduction to the many possible benefits of having open access to the GEOS-CF model through multiple platforms.

Callum Wayman↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2024

Scenario Setup and Forcing Data for Impact Model Evaluation and Impact Attribution Within the Third Round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec↗

NASA NTRS2024

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in La Plata River Basin With GLDAS and SMAP

Study region The La Plata River Basin (LPRB) is an area of interest, as there was a significant drought event from 2019 to 2021. With the LPRB being the second largest river basin in South America, this drought affected all aspects of life for over 100 million people who inhabit this area. Study focus In this study, we utilized satellite and model datasets to examine spatial and temporal variability of hydrological anomalies throughout the basin before and during the drought event. These variable anomalies, such as precipitation and groundwater, are derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations were used in the spatial and temporal analysis of the drought. The water loss was calculated using the Mann-Kendall test to assess the changes in anomalies for the terrestrial water storage throughout the basin and subbasins. New hydrological insights for the region The main insight from this study is the agreement of the GLDAS anomalies with the SMAP data throughout the drought. The variable anomalies all decreased and showed alignment with the downscaled 1 km SMAP which shows alignment with the trends from in-situ observations. It was also found that the Upper Parana subbasin lost the most water over the drought period. These products improve understanding of the spatial variability within the entire basin and facilitate understanding of droughts and resources to assist in the future management of water resources.

La Plata Basin↗

NASA NTRS2023

How do tradeoffs in satellite spatial and temporal resolution impact snow water equivalent reconstruction?

Given the tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution, questions about resolution optimality are fundamental to the study of global snow. Answers to these questions will inform future scientific priorities and mission specifications. Heterogeneity of mountain snowpacks drives a need for daily snow cover mapping at the slope scale (≤30 m) that is unmet for a variety of scientific users, ranging from hydrologists to the military to wildlife biologists. But finer spatial resolution usually requires coarser temporal or spectral resolution. Thus, no single sensor can meet all these needs. Recently, constellations of satellites and fusion techniques have made noteworthy progress. The efficacy of two such recent advances is examined: (1) a fused MODIS–Landsat product with daily 30 m spatial resolution and (2) a harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2A and B (HLS) product with 3–4 d temporal and 30 m spatial resolution. State-of-the-art spectral unmixing techniques are applied to surface reflectance products from 1 and 2 to create snow cover and albedo maps. Then an energy balance model was run to reconstruct snow water equivalent (SWE). For validation, lidar-based Airborne Snow Observatory SWE estimates were used. Results show that reconstructed SWE forced with 30 m resolution snow cover has lower bias, a measure of basin-wide accuracy, than the baseline case using MODIS (463 m cell size) but greater mean absolute error, a measure of per-pixel accuracy. However, the differences in errors may be within uncertainties from scaling artifacts, e.g., basin boundary delineation. Other explanations are (1) the importance of daily acquisitions and (2) the limitations of downscaled forcings for reconstruction. Conclusions are as follows: (1) spectrally unmixed snow cover and snow albedo from MODIS continue to provide accurate forcings for snow models and (2) finer spatial and temporal resolution through sensor design, fusion techniques, and satellite constellations are the future for Earth observations, but existing moderate-resolution sensors still offer value.

Edward H. Bair↗