Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “drought projection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble

The CORDEX-CORE initiative was developed with the aim of producing homogeneous regional climate model (RCM) projections over domains world wide. In its first phase, two RCMs were run at 0.22° resolution downscaling 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 program for 9 CORDEX domains and two climate scenarios, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The CORDEX-CORE simulations along with the CMIP5 GCM ensemble and the most recently produced CMIP6 GCM ensemble are analyzed, with focus on several temperature, heat, wet and dry hazard indicators for present day and mid-century and far future time slices. The CORDEX-CORE ensemble shows a better performance than the driving GCMs for several hazard indices due to its higher spatial resolution. For the far future time slice the 3 ensembles project an increase in all temperature and heat indices analyzed under the RCP8.5 scenario. The largest increases are always shown by the CMIP6 ensemble, except for Tx > 35 °C, for which the CORDEX-CORE projects higher warming. Extreme wet and flood prone maxima are projected to increase by the RCM ensemble over the la Plata basin in South America, the Congo basin in Africa, east North America, north east Europe, India and Indochina, regions where a better performance is obtained, whereas the GCM ensembles show small or negligible signals. Furthermore, compound hazard hotspots based on heat, drought and wet indicators are detected in each continent worldwide in region like Central America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean, South Africa and Australia, where a linear relation is shown between the heatwave and drought change signal, and region like Arabian peninsula, the central and south east Africa region (SEAF), the north west America (NWN), south east Asia, India, China and central and northern European regions (WCE, NEU) where the same linear relation is found for extreme precipitation and HW increases. Although still limited, the CORDEX-CORE initiative was able to produce high resolution climate projections with almost global coverage and can provide an important resource for impact assessment and climate service activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil fertility and drought interact to determine large variations in wood production for a hyperdominant Amazonian tree species

The productivity of the Amazon Rainforest is related to climate and soil fertility. However, the degrees to which these interactions influence multiannual to decadal variations in tree diameter growth are still poorly explored. To fill this gap, we used radiocarbon measurements to evaluate the variation in tree growth rates over the past decades in an important hyperdominant species, Eschweilera coriacea (Lecythidaceae), from six sites in the Brazilian Amazon that span a range of soil properties and climate. Using linear mixed-effects models, we show that temporal variations in mean annual diameter increment evaluated over a specific time period reflect interactions between soil fertility and the drought index (SPEI-Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index). Our results indicate that the growth response of trees to drought is strongly dependent on soil conditions, a facet of forest productivity that is still underexplored, and which has great potential for improving predictions of future tropical tree growth in the face of projected climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling

Abstract New simulations at 12-km grid spacing with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) Model nested in the MPI Earth System Model (ESM) are used to quantify possible changes in wind power generation potential as a result of global warming. Annual capacity factors (CF; measures of electrical power production) computed by applying a power curve to hourly wind speeds at wind turbine hub height from this simulation are also used to illustrate the pitfalls in seeking to infer changes in wind power generation directly from low-spatial-resolution and time-averaged ESM output. WRF-derived CF are evaluated using observed daily CF from operating wind farms. The spatial correlation coefficient between modeled and observed mean CF is 0.65, and the root-mean-square error is 5.4 percentage points. Output from the MPI-WRF Model chain also captures some of the seasonal variability and the probability distribution of daily CF at operating wind farms. Projections of mean annual CF (CF A ) indicate no change to 2050 in the southern Great Plains and Northeast. Interannual variability of CF A increases in the Midwest, and CF A declines by up to 2 percentage points in the northern Great Plains. The probability of wind droughts (extended periods with anomalously low production) and wind bonus periods (high production) remains unchanged over most of the eastern United States. The probability of wind bonus periods exhibits some evidence of higher values over the Midwest in the 2040s, whereas the converse is true over the northern Great Plains. Significance Statement Wind energy is playing an increasingly important role in low-carbon-emission electricity generation. It is a “weather dependent” renewable energy source, and thus changes in the global atmosphere may cause changes in regional wind power production (PP) potential. We use PP data from operating wind farms to demonstrate that regional simulations exhibit skill in capturing actual power production. Projections to the middle of this century indicate that over most of North America east of the Rocky Mountains annual expected PP is largely unchanged, as is the probability of extended periods of anomalously high or low production. Any small declines in annual PP are of much smaller magnitude than changes due to technological innovation over the last two decades.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models

We evaluate climate model simulations of geopotential height at the largest space-time scales, considering the first Fourier components (in longitude) of long-term climatological means. Quasi-stationary planetary scale waves emerge from this analysis. Variations of these waves are important components of climate change, for example associated with regional drought. Systematic examination of their long-term climatology provides context for understanding their evolution in time. We compare four reanalysis datasets with “historical runs” from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and find general agreement, but we also identify model errors outside the range of both observational uncertainty and the uncertainty implied by interannual variability. Errors in wave phase have possible implications for climate model projections of regional climate and of shifting weather patterns. One model in the set we examine, originally created nearly 20 years before the others, exhibits noticeably greater errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying precursors of daily to seasonal hydrological extremes over the USA using deep learning techniques and climate model ensembles

Focal Area(s): We focus on two areas of crosscutting interest for DOE: 1) predictability of extreme precipitation and drought in the USA and 2) the integration of climate models with new AI tools, such as convolutional neural networks (CNN) and methods to understand their output (e.g. layer-wise relevance propagation; LRP). This project fits into focus area 3 of this call for white paper using AI to gain insight from complex data, including explainable AI tools. Science Challenge: Predicting hydrological extremes is important due to their impacts on people, agriculture and infrastructure. This prediction is difficult due to the infrequent occurrence of extremes and their complexity. However, extreme events can be related to more predictable conditions in the ocean, such as El Nino, long-term soil moisture or large scale modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonally Dependent Future Changes in the U.S. Midwest Hydroclimate and Extremes

This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, based on ensemble projections of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the multimodel initial-condition large-ensemble simulations. The precipitation response features a seasonally dependent change with increased precipitation in April–May but reduced precipitation in July–August. In this work, the late-spring wetting is attributed to the enhanced low-level moisture-transporting southerlies, which are induced by regional sea level pressure anomalies linked to the poleward shift of the North American westerly jet (NAWJ). The late-summer drying is attributed to the weakened storm track, which is also linked to the poleward NAWJ shift. The seasonally dependent future changes of the Midwest precipitation are analogous to its climatological seasonal progression, which increases over late spring as the NAWJ approaches the Midwest and decreases over late summer as the NAWJ migrates away. In response to the mean precipitation changes, extremely wet late springs (April–May precipitation above the 99th percentile of the historical period) and extremely dry late summers (below the 1st percentile) will occur much more frequently, implying increased late-spring floods and late-summer droughts. Future warming in the Midwest is amplified in late summer due to the reduced precipitation. With amplified background warming and increased occurrence, future late-summer droughts will be more devastating. Our results highlight that, under a time-invariant poleward jet shift, opposite precipitation changes arise before and after the peak rainy month, leading to substantial increases in the subseasonal extremes. The severity of such climate impacts is obscured in projections of the rainy-season mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implication of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on compound precipitation and temperature extremes in Africa

Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (R warm|dry and R cold|dry ) and wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050-2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070-2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986-2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (R warm|wet and R cold|wet ) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. Furthermore, the termination effect is noted to re duce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Systems Analysis of the Physiological and Molecular Mechanisms of Sorghum Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Water Use Efficiency and Interactions with the Soil Microbiome (Final Report for DE-SC0014395)

The specific project objectives were to: 1) Conduct deep census surveys of root microbiomes concurrent with phenotypic characterizations of a diverse panel of sorghum genotypes across multiple years to define the microbes associated with the most productive lines under drought and low nitrogen conditions. 2) Associate systems-level genotypic, microbial, and environmental factors with improved sorghum performance using robust statistical approaches. 3) Develop culture collections of sorghum root/leaf associated microbes that recapitulate root-enriched sequences defined in the census. 4) Perform controlled environment experiments for in-depth characterization and hypothesis testing of G sorghum x G microbe x E interactions . Validate physiological mechanisms, map genetic loci for stress tolerance, and determine the persistence of optimal microbial strains under greenhouse and field conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range"

This data package contains data that were used for analysis in “Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range”, by Moyes et al. 2013. All data collection and field research were completed on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.This data package contains nine comma-separated-values (.csv) files, one text (.txt) file, and two zipped seedling folders that were used for leaf area analysis. One zipped folder contains 468 .jpg photographs of seedlings, and the second contains 468 corresponding Image J-processed .jpg images that include silhouette leaf area values. .csv and .txt files can be opened using any compatible simple text-editor software such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows); .csv’s can also be opened using R and Microsoft Excel. Image files can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). In addition, there are a total of 31 Microsoft Excel files: three .xlsx files, and 28 raw Li-Cor output .xls files. This data user’s guide is available in .pdf format, and can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible file viewing software. Geospatial data showing field site locations are also included in the archive for use and reference. There are two geospatial formats in this archive: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and keyhole markup-language (.kml) files. Both file types contain bounding box information, with the former being polygons, and the latter containing corner coordinates for each site. ESRI shapefiles can be opened using any geospatial software compatible with the file type (such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS), and .kml files are compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p < 0.001) and August–September mean soil temperature (p < 0.001). Despite marked differences in vegetation cover and meteorological conditions across sites, volumetric soil moisture content (θ) at 5–10 cm below 0.16 and 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ < 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) in a stepwise linear regression model (p < 0.0001). We concluded that seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Maintenance log:Amended file name error in Data User's Guide May 19 2022

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Vegetation Canopy Architecture on Dynamics of Spatiotemporal Light Distribution and its Effect on Land-Biosphere-Atmosphere Fluxes of Energy, Carbon, and Water

The dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of light and micro climatic variables (wind speed, atmospheric CO 2 concentration, humidity, pressure, and air temperature) within the plant canopy as determined by the canopy architecture play a critical role in land-biosphere-atmosphere (LBA) photosynthetic carbon uptake, transpiratory water loss and energy partitioning. Vegetation models that include effects of sun and shade flecks, leaf temperature and energy balance partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, and reduced turbulent mixing in dense vegetation canopies can accurately predict canopy performance, particularly its shaded leaves, which can constitute 80% of leaf area and contribute up to 50% of carbon update and 65% of water loss. However, current vegetation models with their bulk characterization of shaded leaves poorly represent the complex three dimensional (3D) canopy architecture are insufficient to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of shaded leaves. Here, we propose to employ an x-ray computed tomography (XCT) imaging technique in combination with an automated, high throughput, image processing pipeline (3DArch, to be developed) to obtain an explicit 3D triangulated surface mesh of a plant canopy (Fig 1). 3DArch would provide a much needed technological jump in 3D LBA modeling where computer generated artificial 3D models suffer from lack of high resolution detailed canopy architecture parameters. The 3D canopy surface mesh output from 3DArch is coupled with an explicit 3D forward ray tracing model (fastTracer) to obtain a high resolution representation of the dynamic spatiotemporal light environment within the canopy over the course of a day (Fig 1). The results from the light attenuation model are then coupled with a process based multi-scale bio-physical canopy and leaf model of photosynthesis (PlantGro) to get fluxes of carbon, water and energy at the leaf and canopy scale, in addition to estimating whole plant carbon uptake, and water loss. Our proposed model framework would be the first of its kind to provide a breakthrough capability in the field of process-based plant modeling that bridges the key technological gap in shaded leaf modeling through explicit representation of 3D canopy architecture. Computer generated artificial 3D model canopy simulations on grasses show that the canopy light distribution does not follow an exponential behavior as assumed in most 1D vegetation models, but rather exhibits a heterogeneous behavior, with a small but significant portion of interior canopy leaves experiencing peak light levels due to sun flecks while the rest of the canopy receives substantially lower light levels. These results indicate a bias in traditional models that overestimates shaded leaf contribution towards whole canopy photosynthesis by up to 15% and underestimate transpiration by up to 12% with an associated increase in sensible heat fluxes since photosynthesis, transpiration and energy partitioning are tightly coupled processes. However, these test results need to be validated using the 3D architecture obtained from a real plant imaged in 3D using 3DArch, rather than an artificial model plant. Our proposed model framework would allow us to identify inefficiencies in canopy light distribution and prescribe optimal canopy architectures (leaf optical properties, leaf area, leaf angles, row spacing, planting density, etc.) to traditional and genetic engineering based crop breeders, for maximizing target functions such as light use efficiency, water use efficiency, drought tolerance, crop yield, crop resilience etc., with important applications in biofuel crops such as sorghum, and switchgrass. Our model can also be applied for designing optimal canopy architecture that increase surface albedo as a mitigation strategy for global warming and projections of crop yield for future food and water security under climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

Sun, Yong (ORCID:0000000210876060)↗