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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global mean frequency increases of daily and sub-daily heavy precipitation in ERA5

Abstract Changes in heavy precipitation frequency can be viewed as a change in the event return period, a common metric of risk. Compared with intensity, frequency changes are less well-studied and past work has largely been constrained to analysis of well-instrumented regions. We exploit the latest ERA5 reanalysis and its global hourly accumulations at 1/4° spatial resolution and apply a metric that captures frequency changes across both wet and dry regions. According to ERA5 and in a global average sense, during 1989–2018, hourly events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988 increased in frequency by 71 (53–93, 95% range) %, while the one day per year heavy event frequency increased by 44 (37–54) %. Thus, hourly events that occurred once per year in the baseline decade are on track to double in frequency by 2021–2030, and the daily events by 2047–2056. Furthermore, our results replicate prior findings that relative frequency increases are larger for increasingly rare events, and for the first time we quantify that mean frequency increases have been greater over ocean than land. Ocean increases are larger by factors of 3.0 and 2.1 for the hourly and daily events that occurred once per year in 1979–1988, respectively.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving leaf spring phenology modelling for temperate tree species: An integration of the Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model with the optimality‐based approach

Spring leaf phenology in temperate tree species is highly sensitive to climate change and significantly affects plant photosynthetic performance, resource utilization, competition and trophic interactions, thereby impacting various ecosystem functions. Although optimality-based (OPT) approaches for modelling spring phenology are increasingly recognized, the optimal representation of the underlying principle (balancing photosynthesis gains with chilling risks) remains controversial. Here, we integrated a coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model into an existing OPT model, and termed the resulting model R-OPT, and evaluated its performance using the PEP725 dataset, which includes 409,144 site-species-year records from across Europe. Our results show that R-OPT outperforms both the default OPT and non-optimality-based models (e.g. the chilling-forcing trade-off and growing degree day models). This improved performance is consistent within and across five focal tree species but varies by region: R-OPT excels in lowland, moist environments but is less effective in high-altitude, cold, and dry areas, possibly due to an incomplete representation of environmental constraints on photosynthetic carbon gain in these regions. Our research advances leaf spring phenology modelling by emphasizing an optimality principle that balances photosynthetic carbon gain with chilling risk, improving the representation of plant photosynthesis processes and enhancing understanding of environmental factors influencing phenology in the context of climate change.

coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tropical Red Macroalgae Cultivation with a Focus on Compositional Analysis

To create carbon efficient sources of bioenergy feedstocks and feedstuff for aquaculture and terrestrial livestock, it is critical to develop and commercialize the most efficient seaweed cultivation approach with a sustainable nutrient input supply. Here, we present data for a novel, onshore tropical macroalgae cultivation system, based on influent deep seawater as the nutrient and carbon sources. Two red algal species were selected, Agardhiella subulata and Halymenia hawaiiana, as the basis for growth optimization. Highest productivity in small-scale cultivation was demonstrated with A. subulata in the 10% deep seawater (64.7 µg N L−1) treatment, growing at up to 26% specific growth rate day−1 with highest yields observed at 247.5 g m−2 day−1 fresh weight. The highest yields for H. hawaiiana were measured with the addition of 10% deep seawater up to 8.8% specific growth rate day−1 and yields at 63.3 g fresh weight m−2 day−1 equivalent. Biomass should be culled weekly or biweekly to avoid density limitations, which likely contributed to a decrease in SGR over time. With a measured 30–40% carbon content of the ash-free dry weight (20–30% of the dry weight) biomass, this translates to an almost 1:1 CO2 capture to biomass ratio. The compositional fingerprint of the high carbohydrate content of both Agardhiella and Halymenia makes for an attractive feedstock for downstream biorefinery applications. By focusing on scaling and optimizing seaweed farming technologies for large-scale onshore farms, the opportunities for yield potential, adaptability to cultivation conditions, and meeting global sustainability goals through novel, carbon-negative biomass sources such as seaweed can be realized.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian Oscillation on the US Puget Sound Regional Hydroclimate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are two major modes of climate variability with global hydroclimate impacts. However, their impacts often depend on the local climate and geography, resulting in large regional differences. In this study, we examined the connection of ENSO and MJO to the hydroclimate conditions and extremes in the Puget Sound (PS) basin located in the US Pacific Northwest coast. The results indicate that ENSO significantly modulates the cold season temperature and temperature-mediated hydrologic processes. El Niño cold seasons feature less snow accumulation and intensified surface runoff, even if the precipitation amount is similar to La Niña cold seasons. Therefore, El Niño causes more snow drought (in the form of compound dry and warm snow drought) and shifts the surface runoff seasonality by reducing runoff in the subsequent warm season. MJO phases 6–7 trigger more extreme precipitation, temperature, snowmelt, and runoff in the PS region at 0–9–day lags, and such connections are robust regardless of how the ENSO signals are removed. Meanwhile, MJO modulates large-scale extreme weather systems (e.g., atmospheric rivers) with significant enhancement during phases 6–7. ENSO impacts have intensified in the 2001–2020 period, whereas MJO impacts showed some phase shift in this period. This study reveals ENSO and MJO phases 6–7 as useful predictors of the PS hydroclimate anomalies/extremes at seasonal and daily scales, respectively. Utilizing these findings holds the potential to improve regional water resources prediction and management.

ENSO↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming

Abstract The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of U 3 O 8 and UO 2 microspheres using microfluidics

Uranium-bearing microspheres below 50µm with a narrow size distribution allows for a wider variety of fuel forms. To accommodate the smaller size, gel microspheres with a composition of UO 3 ∙nH 2 O∙mNH 3 were synthesized using microfluidics and subsequently converted to U 3 O 8 and UO 2 . To accommodate the slower flow rates required by microfluidics, a more stable broth was established. Additionally, the gelation studies resulted in a broth that was stable for more than two days at 0°C and for close to 3 h at room temperature while still gelling within 25 s. Synthesis of gel microspheres with a narrow size distribution lasted for 5 h and produced ~0.5 g of air-dried material. The gelled microspheres were converted to U 3 O 8 and UO 2 and with sizes of 50 and 40 µm in diameter, respectively.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

BWR Spent Nuclear Fuel Acquisition and Testing to Support DOE-NE High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project

The Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) within the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) established the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign to conduct research and development (R&D) activities related to the storage, transportation, and disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The SFWST program was created within SFWD to address issues of extended or long-term SNF storage and transportation. Some near-term objectives of SFWST are to use a science-based, engineering-driven approach to: Support the enhancement of the technical bases to support the continued safe and secure dry storage of SNF for extended periods; Support the enhancement of the technical bases for retrieving SNF after extended dry storage; Support the enhancement of the technical bases for transporting high burnup (HBU) fuel and transporting low burnup fuel and HBU fuel after dry storage DOE-NE, in partnership with the Electric Power Research Institute, developed the High Burnup Spent Fuel Data Project to perform a large-scale demonstration and laboratory-scale testing of HBU pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuels (exceeding 45 gigawatt-days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]). Under this project, 25 sister rods—which are rods that have the same design, power histories, and other characteristics—were removed from assemblies at the North Anna Nuclear Power Station and sent to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in January 2016. ORNL performed detailed nondestructive examination (NDE) on all 25 rods. The NDE consisted of visual examinations, gamma and neutron scanning, profilometry and rod length measurements, and eddy current examinations. After completing the NDE, 10 of the sister rods were delivered to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in a NAC International, Inc. legal-weight truck cask in September 2018 for destructive examination (DE). To date, SFWD work has focused on the PWR fuel that is part of the Sister Rod Test program. No boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel has been tested in the program, and the data needs that were identified for the PWR fuel have not been collected for BWR fuel. The goal to obtain six to nine BWR rods and test them at ORNL will support closing this important data gap. BWR fuel comprises approximately 56% of the total fuel assemblies currently in storage at nuclear power plants in the United States. BWR nuclear fuel and cladding designs and manufacturing are significantly different from PWRs. Differences include the following: BWR fuel pellets are larger than PWR pellets; Variations of Zircaloy-2 (including liners) are used instead of the Zircaloy-4 cladding materials used in PWRs; Clad manufacturing and stress-relief processes are different between PWRs and BWRs; The fuel rod dimensions are different because larger rod diameters and thicker cladding are used in BWRs; BWR fuel typically has lower internal rod pressures and sees vastly different operating conditions than PWR fuel (i.e., two-phase flow); BWR assemblies are “canned,” meaning each assembly is surrounded by a metal fuel channel; BWR cladding is often composed of an inner pure Zr liner that has widely different mechanical properties than the Zircaloy-2 alloy and exhibits a stronger affinity for hydrogen; The BWR SNF generally has more total hydrogen in the cladding/liner than typical PWR fuel; The construction of the PWR and BWR assemblies is vastly different; BWR rods are solidly attached to the assembly nozzles and experience a much different vibration and shock load than PWR rods, which are “floating” within a grid system attached to guide tubes, and the rods sit loosely on the bottom end plates. These numerous differences will affect the way the BWR SNF responds under dry storage preparation processes (e.g., vacuum drying) and during transportation. The results collected in the PWR experimental program must be compared with a subset of similar data collected on BWR SNF to establish a technical basis for whether the larger PWR database is sufficient to bound the BWR SNF end-of-life conditions as is currently assumed for several fuel/clad properties. Changes that occur in both fuel types at HBU could exacerbate any mechanical property differences. As the fuel burnup increases, several changes occur that might affect the performance of the fuel, cladding, and assembly hardware in storage and transportation. These changes include increased cladding corrosion layer thickness, increased cladding hydrogen content, increased cladding creep strains, increased fission gas release, and the formation of the HBU structure at the surface of the fuel pellets. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) limits the current maximum rod-averaged burnup to 62 GWd/MTU due to these changes and the lack of data at higher burnups.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Suppressed Daytime Convection Over the Amazon River

We investigated the interaction between surface conditions and precipitating convection by comparing the Amazon River against the surrounding forest. Despite similar synoptic conditions within a few tens of kilometers, the river surface is substantially cooler than the surrounding forest during the day and warmer at night. We analyzed 20 years of high-resolution satellite precipitation data and confirmed previous findings of daytime rainfall reduction over the river for the whole Amazon Basin. The percentage reduction is strongest during the dry-to-wet transition season. In addition, the percentage reduction of individual tributary is significantly correlated with the Laplacian of surface temperature, which causes thermally driven surface divergence and suppresses local convection. Additionally, nighttime rainfall is enhanced over tributaries near the Atlantic coast during the wet season. A regional climate model then simulates the local rainfall anomalies associated with the river. Above the river, moisture diverges near the surface and converges above the surface before the daytime rainfall, partially driven by the horizontal gradient of humidity. Unlike the river, moisture convergence within the boundary layer is more critical for the rainfall above the forest region. Our studies suggest that strong thermal contrast can be important in deriving heterogeneous convection in moist tropical regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transition of Large-Scale Environmental Conditions and Characteristics of Four Rainfall Types Observed by S-PolKa During the MJO-1 Active Phase of DYNAMO/CINDY/AMIE

Analyses of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) S-PolKa dual-polarization radar data and ERA5 reanalysis fields indicate gradual changes in convection characteristics and large-scale environmental conditions during a central Indian Ocean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event observed by the DYNAMO/CINDY/AMIE field campaigns in late October 2011 (MJO-1). Examination of four rainfall types (isolated convective cores, convective, mixed, and stratiform) reveals a transition of convection characteristics (i.e., areal coverage and depth) between distinct 5-day environmental periods at the beginning and end of this ~2-week MJO active phase. A shift toward less frequent rainfall covering less of the radar domain for all four rainfall types occurs when large-scale lower-tropospheric dry air advects into the region with the westerly wind burst (WWB). Drier and warmer lower-free-tropospheric conditions associated with the WWB contribute to increased large-scale surface-based convective inhibition (CIN), surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE), and cloud base heights. A thermodynamic budget analysis indicates reduced surface heat fluxes contribute to the increased surface-based CAPE. Greater CAPE at the end of MJO-1 coincides with deeper 50-dBZ convective echoes, while decreased 10-dBZ depth for all rainfall types corresponds in time with WWB-related dry-air advection. Increased (decreased) reflectivity values in the lower-level vertical reflectivity distribution of convective (stratiform) precipitation indicate increased (decreased) convective (stratiform) intensities when the WWB is present. The opposite depth changes for convective echoes and opposite shifts in convective and stratiform precipitation intensities underscore how the WWB can have differing impacts at different reflectivity thresholds and stages of the deep convection lifecycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Humidity-Dependent Electrostatic Charge Decay on Dielectric Surface in Enclosed Volumes

Electrostatic surface charge decay is investigated to determine loss mechanisms, the effect of humidity, enclosure size, and material. This work focuses on charging dielectric and metal surfaces close to the electrical breakdown threshold in atmospheric air under humid and dry conditions. After initial charging to a maximum potential of roughly 30 kV, the associated surface charge is allowed to decay because of recombining with ions from the natural background, resulting in decay times ranging from minutes to hours to days. Spheres with a radius of 50 mm consisting of varying materials (PTFE and metal as referenced later) are charged and tested at relative humidity levels, RH, of 10%, 35%, and 64%. It was found that the ion-ion pair production rate and the enclosure size affected the measured charge decay rate. The impact of air convection on charge decay in the open air (no enclosure) is discussed. The humidity increased the rate of charge decay on the metal and dielectric spheres. For example, in the first 25 minutes after charging, the total charge on the PTFE sphere decreased to 66%or 50% from its initial value in the 10% and 35% RH tests, respectively. An equivalent generation rate is found for the ions in the enclosure, with 10 and 24 ion pairs cm −3 s −1 being generated at a 5% and 49% relative humidity, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of Drying-rewetting (Transient Soil Moisture) and Steady State Soil Moisture Incubation on Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics in Three US Soils, 2017

This data set contains measurements of soil characteristics (aggregate size distribution and mean size, total aggregate associated carbon, extractable organic C, and microbial biomass C), microbial respiration, and soil metabolite concentrations from a transient and steady soil moisture incubation experiment using soils of different textures (sandy, loamy, and clayey). The study investigated mechanisms driving the Birch effect (increased carbon mineralization pulses with wetting following a drying period) in differing soil textures. Three different soils of distinctly different textures were collected from 0-15cm depth in Georgia (sandy, 2017-05-01), Missouri (loamy, 2017-06-14), and Texas (clayey, December 2017). Soils were incubated for 140 days with destructive harvests done on days 1, 29, 33, 56, 112, 116, and 140 in transient soil moisture incubation and on days 1, 33, 116, and 140 in steady state soil moisture incubation. This dataset contains six data files in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: six data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

1-Methyladenosine concentration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioinspired Dry‐Steam Superinsulation Straw Foam

Abstract Cellulosic materials offer sustainable advantages for building energy conservation. However, their development has been hindered by reduced thermal performance, often caused by structural collapse during the transition from solution to solid. Inspired by natural goose down, a bio‐based, lightweight insulation foam derived from agricultural waste straw is presented. Through in situ synthesis, bio‐silica fibers with branched structures capable of supporting hollow silica microspheres are fabricated. After steam‐mediated processing, the resulting foam exhibit low density (95 mg cm − 3 ), high porosity (95.5%), low thermal conductivity (0.03 ± 0.003 W mK −1 ), and a cyclic compressive strength of 90 kPa at 50% strain. Owing to the synergistic microstructure formed by branched bio‐fibers and hollow silica spheres, the bio‐silica foam exhibit outstanding thermal insulation performance relative to other bio‐based foams prepared by ambient drying. A passivated insulation panel is further developed by incorporating this material as the core component, achieving a thermal conductivity of 0.0275 W mk −1 and flexural strength of 6.85 MPa. The panel demonstrated durability with stable thermal performance throughout a 60‐day outdoor test. Moreover, the bio‐silica foam shows a carbon footprint of 7.50 kgCO₂ kg −1 at 70.2 wt.% silica, highlighting its promise as a sustainable insulation solution for green buildings.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of supplementary cementitious materials on microstructure and transport properties of spacer-concrete interface

Reinforcement spacers are a critical component of concrete structures. Their presence affects microstructure and transport properties of concrete cover though this is not widely appreciated. This paper presents the first study to determine whether the negative effects of spacers can be mitigated through the use of supplementary cementitious materials such as silica fume, fly ash and blast-furnace slag. Concrete samples (>200) with different spacers, binders, curing and drying regimes were prepared and tested for diffusion, permeation, absorption, electrical conductivity, carbonation and microstructure. It was found that spacers increase all transport properties, the extent depending on type of spacer, drying regime and transport mechanism. The spacer-concrete interface is weak, porous and micro-cracked, and this lowers the resistance of concrete to ingress of aggressive agents. The beneficial effects of SCMs (strength enhancement and densification) and prolonged curing (120-day) are insufficient to overcome the negative effects of spacers. Implications for durability are discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend

The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.

building energy modeling↗