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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

About 80 % of the precipitation at the Colorado River's headwaters is snow, and the resulting snowmelt-driven hydrograph is a crucial water source for about 40 million people. Snowmelt from alpine and subalpine snowpack contributes substantially to groundwater recharge and river flow. However, the dynamics of snowmelt progression are not well understood because observations of the high-elevation snowpack are difficult due to challenging access in complex mountainous terrain as well as the cost and labor intensity of currently available methods. We present a novel approach to infer the processes and dynamics of high-elevation snowmelt contributions predicated upon stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios observed in streamflow. We show that deuterium-excess (d-excess) values of stream water could serve as a comparatively cost-effective proxy for a catchment-integrated signal of high-elevation snowmelt contributions to catchment runoff. We sampled stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of the precipitation, snowpack, and stream water in the East River, a headwater catchment of the Colorado River, and the stream water of larger catchments at sites on the Gunnison River and Colorado River. The d-excess of snowpack increased with elevation; the upper subalpine and alpine snowpack (> 3200 m) had substantially higher d-excess compared to lower elevations (< 3200 m) in the study area. The d-excess values of stream water reflected this because d-excess values increased as the higher-elevation snowpack contributed more to stream water generation later in the snowmelt/runoff season. End-member mixing analyses based on the d-excess data showed that the share of high-elevation snowmelt contributions within the snowmelt hydrograph was on average 44 % and generally increased during melt period progression, up to 70 %. The observed pattern was consistent during 6 years for the East River, and a similar relation was found for the larger catchments on the Gunnison and Colorado rivers. High-elevation snowpack contributions were found to be higher for years with lower snowpack and warmer spring temperatures. Thus, we conclude that the d-excess of stream water is a viable proxy to observe changes in high-elevation snowmelt contributions in catchments at various scales. Inter-catchment comparisons and temporal trends of the d-excess of stream water could therefore serve as a catchment-integrated measure to monitor if mountain systems rely on high-elevation water inputs more during snow drought compared to years of average snowpack depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake

Terrestrial photosynthesis, or gross primary production (GPP), is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain. The global annual mean GPP is historically thought to be around 120 PgC yr −1 , which is about 30–50 PgC yr −1 lower than GPP inferred from the oxygen-18 ( 18 O) isotope and soil respiration. This disparity is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, in this study, we infer GPP from carbonyl sulfide, an innovative tracer for CO 2 diffusion from ambient air to leaf chloroplasts through stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicitly representing mesophyll diffusion is important for accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. From the estimate of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer a global contemporary GPP of 157 (±8.5) PgC yr −1 , which is consistent with estimates from 18 O (150–175 PgC yr −1 ) and soil respiration ($149^{+29}_{-23}$) PgC yr −1 ), but with an improved confidence level. Our global GPP is higher than satellite optical observation-driven estimates (120–140 PgC yr –1 ) that are used for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference predominantly occurs in the pan-tropical rainforests and is corroborated by ground measurements, suggesting a more productive tropics than satellite-based GPP products indicated. As GPP is a primary determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories, our findings lay a physiological foundation on which the understanding and prediction of carbon–climate feedbacks can be advanced.

Lai, Jiameng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast and Scalable FFT-Based GPU-Accelerated Algorithms for Block-Triangular Toeplitz Matrices with Application to Linear Inverse Problems Governed by Autonomous Dynamical Systems

In this work, we present an efficient and scalable algorithm for performing matrix-vector multiplications (matvecs) for block Toeplitz matrices. Such matrices, which are shift-invariant with respect to their blocks, arise in the context of solving inverse problems governed by autonomous systems, and time-invariant systems in particular. In this article, we consider inverse problems that infer unknown parameters from observational data of a linear time-invariant dynamical system given in the form of partial differential equations (PDEs). Matrix-free Newton-conjugate-gradient methods are often the gold standard for solving these inverse problems, but they require numerous actions of the Hessian on a vector. Matrix-free adjoint-based Hessian matvecs require solution of a pair of linearized forward/adjoint PDE solves per Hessian action, which may be prohibitive for large-scale inverse problems. Time invariance of the forward PDE problem leads to a block Toeplitz structure of the discretized parameter-to-observable (p2o) map defining the mapping from inputs (parameters) to outputs (observables) of the PDEs. This block Toeplitz structure enables us to exploit two key properties: (1) compact storage of the p2o map and its adjoint, and (2) efficient fast Fourier transform–based Hessian matvecs. The proposed algorithm is mapped onto large multi-GPU clusters and achieves more than 80% of peak bandwidth on NVIDIA A100 GPUs. Excellent weak scaling is shown for up to 48 A100 GPUs. For the targeted problems, the implementation executes Hessian matvecs within fractions of a second, which is orders of magnitude faster than can be achieved by conventional matrix-free Hessian matvecs via forward/adjoint PDE solves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Locating the Source of Forced Oscillations in Transmission Power Grids

A forced oscillation event in power grids refers to a state where malfunctioning or abnormally operating equipment causes persisting periodic disturbances in the system. While power grids are designed to damp most perturbations during standard operations, some of them can excite normal modes of the system and cause significant energy transfers across the system, creating large oscillations thousands of miles away from the source. Localization of the source of such disturbances remains an outstanding challenge due to a limited knowledge of the system parameters outside of the zone of responsibility of system operators. Here, we propose a new method for locating the source of forced oscillations that addresses this challenge by performing a simultaneous dynamic model identification using a principled maximum likelihood approach. We illustrate the validity of the algorithm on a variety of examples where forcing leads to resonance conditions in the system dynamics. Our results establish that an accurate knowledge of system parameters is not required for a successful inference of the source and frequency of a forced oscillation. We anticipate that our method will find a broader application in general dynamical systems that can be well described by their linearized dynamics over short periods of time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability

Abstract A substantial role for atmospheric noise in simulations of decadal internal variability of SST is demonstrated by a comparison of a multicentury climate model control and a corresponding interactive ensemble (IE) simulation. The IE is designed to reduce atmospheric noise in the heat flux, wind stress, and freshwater flux at the air–sea interface. This comparison suggests that nearly all SST variability on decadal time scales is forced by internal atmospheric variability. The results are examined to determine the relative roles of atmospheric surface heat flux noise and ocean dynamics in the decadal volume-averaged heat budget of the upper ocean. The regional heat budgets in two regions, the South Pacific and the midlatitude North Atlantic, show the net atmospheric surface heat flux to be approximately in equilibrium with the ocean dynamics forcing. The IE and control results are used in the equilibrium heat budget approximation to infer the atmospheric heat flux response to SST, as well as the time series of the control atmospheric noise surface heat flux and ocean dynamics forcings for several regions. The South Pacific region SST is found to be primarily forced by the atmospheric noise surface heat flux and the North Atlantic region SST is forced by the ocean dynamics. Similar strengths for the atmospheric heat flux noise and ocean dynamics forcing, with an interdecadal atmospheric heat flux noise time scale and a centennial ocean dynamics time scale, are found for an Atlantic multidecadal variability region SST.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutrino-driven Winds in Three-dimensional Core-collapse Supernova Simulations

Abstract In this paper, we analyze the neutrino-driven winds that emerge in 12 unprecedentedly long-duration 3D core-collapse supernova simulations done using the code F ornax . The 12 models cover progenitors with zero-age main-sequence mass between 9 and 60 solar masses. In all our models, we see transonic outflows that are at least 2 times as fast as the surrounding ejecta and that originate generically from a proto−neutron star surface atmosphere that is turbulent and rotating. We find that winds are common features of 3D simulations, even if there is anisotropic early infall. We find that the basic dynamical properties of 3D winds behave qualitatively similarly to those inferred in the past using simpler 1D models, but that the shape of the emergent wind can be deformed, very aspherical, and channeled by its environment. The thermal properties of winds for less massive progenitors very approximately recapitulate the 1D stationary solutions, while for more massive progenitors they deviate significantly owing to aspherical accretion. The Y e temporal evolution in winds is stochastic, and there can be some neutron-rich phases. Though no strong r -process is seen in any model, a weak r -process can be produced, and isotopes up to 90 Zr are synthesized in some models. Finally, we find that there is at most a few percent of a solar mass in the integrated wind component, while the energy carried by the wind itself can be as much as 10%–20% of the total explosion energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D multi-system Bayesian calibration with energy conservation to study rapidity-dependent dynamics of nuclear collisions

Considerable information about the early-stage dynamics of heavy ion collisions is encoded in the rapidity dependence of measurements. To leverage the large amount of experimental data, we perform a systematic analysis using three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of multiple collision systems — large and small, symmetric and asymmetric. Specifically, we perform fully 3D multi-stage hydrodynamic simulations initialized by a parameterized model for rapidity-dependent energy deposition, which we calibrate on the hadron multiplicity and anisotropic flow coefficients. We utilize Bayesian inference to constrain properties of the early- and late-time dynamics of the system, and highlight the impact of enforcing global energy conservation in our 3D model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling protein structures from predicted contacts with modern molecular dynamics potentials: accuracy, sensitivity, and refinement

Protein structure prediction has become increasingly popular and successful in recent years. An essential step for fragment-free, template-free methods is the generation of a final three-dimensional protein model from a set of predicted amino acid contacts that are often described by interresidue pairwise atomic distances. Here we explore the use of modern, open-source molecular dynamics (MD) engines, which have been continually developed over the last three decades with all-atom Hamiltonians to model biomolecular structure and dynamics, to generate accurate protein structures starting from a set of inferred pairwise distances. Additionally, the ability of MD empirical physical potentials to correct inaccuracies in the predicted geometries is tested. We rigorously characterize the effect of modeling parameters on results, the effect of different amounts of error in the predicted distances on the final structures, and test the ability of post-processing analysis to sort the best models out of a set of statistical replicas. We find that with exact distances and with noisy distances, the method can produce excellent structural models, and that the molecular dynamics force field seems to help correct errors in distance predictions, resisting the effects of applied noise.

Davidson, Russ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extracellular DNA Alters Detection of Subtle Bacterial Responses to Soil Rewetting

Microbial communities are often characterized using DNA-based sequencing, but these approaches also capture extracellular DNA (exDNA) released from dead cells, potentially altering inference about microbial responses to environmental change. This may be especially important during pulse disturbances, such as soil drying–rewetting, which can increase microbial mortality and transient necromass pools. We assessed whether exDNA altered inference about bacterial responses to drying–rewetting (an 80 mm simulated rainfall event following a 28-day drought) in conventionally tilled corn and perennial switchgrass soils. We quantified bacterial abundance (16 S rRNA gene copies), alpha diversity, and community composition in paired soil samples with exDNA included (+ exDNA) and in samples treated with propidium monoazide (PMAxx) to reduce amplification of exDNA (− exDNA). At our level of replication (n = 4), PMAxx treatment did not significantly alter overall temporal response patterns (i.e., no significant main effect of DNA treatment or DNA × time interaction). However, PMAxx treatment increased sensitivity to detect some pairwise temporal changes in bacterial abundance and community composition in corn soils following rewetting. exDNA pools were proportionally highest immediately after rewetting in corn soils, suggesting transient extracellular DNA may contribute to masking during disturbance recovery. In contrast, PMAxx treatment had comparatively small effects in switchgrass soils, which exhibited weaker temporal responses overall. Inclusion of exDNA also changed which taxa appeared most responsive to rewetting. Together, our results suggest that exDNA does not uniformly bias soil microbial inference, but may reduce detectability of subtle disturbance-driven shifts in certain soils. Future studies should advance knowledge of microbial turnover and necromass dynamics, particularly using multiple complementary methods, to help predict when exDNA is most likely to influence ecological inference.

drying-rewetting↗
DOE OSTI2026

BMINN: Learning chemical potentials and parameters from voltage data for multi-phase battery modeling

Free-energy landscapes and chemical potentials govern the dynamics of phase transitions, transport, and stability in functional materials, yet they remain experimentally inaccessible under realistic operating conditions. Here we introduce a Bayesian model-integrated neural network (BMINN) that embeds physics-based formulations of non-autonomous partial differential-algebraic equations into probabilistic learning. This approach reconstructs hidden thermodynamics directly from macroscopic current-voltage data, providing quantitative access to metastable states, staging transitions, and energy barriers without synchrotron probes. Demonstrated on lithium-graphite electrodes, BMINN recovers full Gibbs free-energy landscapes with fidelity validated against operando X-ray diffraction. The framework generalizes across dynamical regimes, enabling accurate voltage prediction, internal state estimation, and inference of governing parameters. Beyond batteries, BMINN exemplifies a broadly applicable strategy for learning missing physics in multiphase, non-equilibrium systems, offering a new pathway to uncover hidden thermodynamic functions across condensed matter and materials physics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Koopman operators for causal discovery

Causal discovery aims to identify cause-effect mechanisms for better scientific understanding, explainable decision-making, and more accurate modeling. Standard statistical frameworks, such as Granger causality, lack the ability to quantify causal relationships in nonlinear dynamics due to the presence of complex feedback mechanisms, timescale mixing, and nonstationarity. Thus, applying these methods to study causal dynamics in real-world systems, such as the Earth, is a major challenge. Addressing this shortcoming, we leverage deep learning and a Koopman operator-theoretic formalism to present a class of causal discovery algorithms. Kausal uses deep Koopman operator methods to approximate nonlinear dynamics in a linearized vector space in which traditional causal inference methods such as Granger causality can be more easily applied. Our idealized experiments demonstrate Kausal’s superior ability in discovering and characterizing causal signals compared to existing deep learning and non-deep learning state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, the successful identification of major El Niño and La Niña events in observations showcases Kausal’s skill to handle real-world applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wall conditioning effects of boron powder injection in KSTAR with a tungsten divertor

Boron powder dropped into KSTAR plasmas decreased the radiated power, core electron density, and Z eff , indicating that the ablated and redeposited boron powder helped to condition the plasma-facing surfaces. Visible line emission of oxygen and tungsten were also reduced by 50% (80%) with boron injection into H-mode (L-mode) discharges that used the new KSTAR tungsten monoblock lower divertor. Dynamic particle balance analysis found a negligible difference in the inferred wall pumping rate during the steady portion of the discharges. It is inferred that the observed conditioning effects were principally caused by a reduction in intrinsic impurities as opposed to a reduction in wall recycling. These results are in qualitative agreement with low-Z injected powder experiments across many fusion devices, confirming the utility of low-Z powder injection as a real-time wall conditioning tool.

boron powder injection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗