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At least 163 records · Page 9

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗

An economic and technical feasibility analysis of a dual-source heat pump using both the air and the ground

The study investigates the economic and technical performance of a novel dual-source heat pump (DSHP) compared with that of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs). The DSHP can use both ambient air and the ground as a heat source or heat sink. It uses ambient air when its temperature is favorable for efficient heat pump operation. When the ambient temperature is too hot or cold, the ground source is used to retain high-efficiency heat pump operation. Since the DSHP can alternately use either the ground heat exchanger (GHE) or ambient air to meet the thermal load, the required size of GHE can be smaller than those of GSHPs. This study models the DSHP using a whole building energy simulation tool (EnergyPlus) coupled with a Python plug-in and Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) to simulate its heating and cooling performance for a typical single-family home in 15 US climate zones. The required GHE size of the DSHP system is determined through simulations and compared with that of GSHPs. DSHP deployment can reduce electricity use compared to ASHPs, especially in cold climates where it shows a reduction of around 50%. When compared to GSHPs, DSHPs use 20%–40% more electricity in warm climates but consume around the same amount in moderate and colder climates. Since the DSHP can use air source when the ambient temperature is mild, the GHE size needed for the DSHP is about 40% less than that needed for GSHPs in hot climates and about 25% less in cold climates. In conclusion, the life cycle cost analysis shows that the DSHP is economically more feasible than ASHPs in colder regions and economically more feasible than GSHPs in hot and cold regions.

Dual-source heat pumps↗

Coupled management of electric vehicle workplace charging and office building loads

Significant building energy savings are realized through heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) setpoint adjustment and daylighting control. Workplace charging (WPC) enables colocation of electric vehicles (EVs) with office building loads. We proposed managing energy use of workplace EV charging and the office building and determined the number of EVs that building energy savings can facilitate charging. We simulated building energy savings in typical medium offices in Chicago IL, Baltimore MD, and Houston TX, spanning three US climate regions. Considering the EV hosting capacity of the saved building energy and travel patterns of roundtrip commuting, we minimized EV charging costs under time-of-use electricity pricing. Managed WPC can reduce charging electricity bills compared to first-come, first-served charging. The ratio of EVs to chargers, the coincident period of commuters’ dwell time and lower electricity prices, and the number of EVs in the office impacted the economic benefits achieved through charging management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States

Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, tax credits of up to $3/kgH 2 are available to hydrogen producers if they generate emissions at levels below 0.45 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 , spurring producers to explore how hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated by nuclear power may qualify for such tax credits. With uranium as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and no on-site emissions, the upstream emissions associated with nuclear fuel supply chains largely determine the carbon intensity of nuclear energy. Using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, we evaluated the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of uranium production and the use of uranium to generate electricity in light water reactor (LWR) NPPs. We evaluated the process chemicals and energy inputs throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to identify the major contributors to nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Such emissions are estimated at 3.0 gCO 2 e/kWh at NPPs in the United States. The greatest share of nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions—comprising 53% of total emissions—are associated with electricity consumption throughout the fuel supply chain. We extended the analysis to include an evaluation of the carbon intensity of H 2 production via electrolysis using nuclear power from LWRs. Finally, we examined the impact of future (2035 and 2050) electricity supply chain scenarios on nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis revealed a decrease of 33% (2035) and 46% (2050) in the carbon intensity of nuclear electricity relative to current nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions.

greenhouse gas emissions↗

Linear viscoelastic characterization of electrically conductive adhesives used as interconnect in photovoltaic modules

Electrically conductive adhesives (ECAs) are incorporated into recent designs of photovoltaic (PV) modules and replace the traditional metallic solders as interconnects. This transition depicts a significant material change, and a proper understanding of the interconnects' mechanical response has not yet been established. However, such an understanding is necessary to (a) identify the driving forces for module degradation and failure, (b) allow for module design optimization, and (c) enable accurate lifetime predictions. This study summarizes the framework for the mechanical materials characterization and modeling of ECAs for PV applications. Only high-fidelity material models are able to capture the rate and temperature dependency of the ECA interconnect and allow for accurate modeling of the materials response. Furthermore, a linear viscoelastic representation is found to describe the mechanical response of the ECAs sufficiently well. The effects of curing conditions and environmental exposure are investigated, and material models for a variety of ECAs are reported and prepared for the use in numerical simulations. Overall, a finite element simulation of a generic submodel of a shingled cell module is used to highlight the need for high-fidelity material models and demonstrates the error made in the predicted stress states by using less sophisticated models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Workshop: Advanced Metering for Decarbonization: Electric Vehicles and 24/7 Carbon-Free Electricity

The purpose of this workshop is to learn more about advanced metering best practices for meeting the goals of EO 14057. This will be a 2-part session, first part to include presentations on the FEMP best practice work related to metering: 1) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and EV charging station electricity use. 2) Integrating data sources to calculate hourly carbon pollution-free electricity (CFE). Second part will facilitate small group discussions with a problem-solving activity.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

The electric sector simultaneously faces two challenges: decarbonization to mitigate, and adaptation to manage, the impacts of climate change. In many regions, these challenges are compounded by an interdependence of electricity and water systems, with water needed for hydropower generation and electricity for water provision. Here, we couple detailed water and electricity system models to evaluate how the Western Interconnection grid can both adapt to climate change and develop carbon-free generation by 2050, while accounting for interactions and climate vulnerabilities of the water sector. We find that by 2050, due to climate change, annual regional electricity use could grow by up to 2% from cooling and water-related electricity demand, while total annual hydropower generation could decrease by up to 23%. To adapt, we show that the region may need to build up to 139 GW of additional generating capacity between 2030 and 2050, equivalent to nearly thrice California's peak demand, and could incur up to $\$$150 billion (+7%) in extra costs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Flow Induced Corrosion in 6061-T6 Aluminum Pipes in De-Ionized Water Environments

Flow induced corrosion/erosion of 6061-T6 aluminum in de-ionized (DI) water environments has not been studied widely. Especially, the long-term effects of corrosion/erosion in seemingly benign flow velocity, temperature, and resistivity ranges of 8 ft/s, 85 oF, 3-5 MOhm-cm, respectively. This study concludes that the flow induced corrosion/erosion in the above parameter ranges is minimal. This is detailed by presenting a literature survey, measuring pipe wall samples from a system that has operated in the above parameter range, predict the loss of material in mm/year at the above velocities and at higher temperatures using electric potential values from other experimental studies coupled with wall shear stress simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Advanced Micro Combined Heat and Power Device

U.S. buildings account for approximately 40% of total U.S. energy consumption and 75% of electricity use, emphasizing the need for efficient, resilient, and secure energy solutions. Micro-combined heat and power (micro-CHP) systems provide an effective approach by simultaneously generating electricity and recovering waste heat for thermal use. However, current commercial micro-CHPs face challenges in achieving higher efficiency, lower emissions, and reduced cost. To address these limitations, a novel micro-CHP prototype powered by a unique opposed-piston four-stroke (OP4S) engine was developed. The OP4S features a simplified, low-cost design with reduced heat losses and dual-piston operation that enables higher thermal efficiency. Experimental results demonstrated up to 35.2% AC electrical efficiency under lean combustion, surpassing the best-performing ICE-based micro-CHPs reported publicly. In addition, the micro-CHP enables a total CHP efficiency exceeding 93%. The prototype operates reliably for over 600 hours, providing flexible and efficient thermal and electrical outputs. This novel OP4S-based micro-CHP offers a resilient, low-cost, and energy-efficient solution suitable for residential, light commercial, and remote community applications across diverse climate zones.

Gao, Zhiming [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000271397995)↗

Integration of amorphous ferromagnetic oxides with multiferroic materials for room temperature magnetoelectric spintronics

A room temperature amorphous ferromagnetic oxide semiconductor can substantially reduce the cost and complexity associated with utilizing crystalline materials for spintronic devices. We report a new material (Fe 0.66 Dy 0.24 Tb 0.1 ) 3 O 7-x (FDTO), which shows semiconducting behavior with reasonable electrical conductivity (~500 mOhm-cm), an optical band-gap (2.4 eV), and a large enough magnetic moment (~200 emu/cc), all of which can be tuned by varying the oxygen content during deposition. Magnetoelectric devices were made by integrating ultrathin FDTO with multiferroic BiFeO 3 . A strong enhancement in the magnetic coercive field of FDTO grown on BiFeO 3 validated a large exchange coupling between them. Additionally, FDTO served as an excellent top electrode for ferroelectric switching in BiFeO3 with no sign of degradation after ~10 10 switching cycles. RT magneto-electric coupling was demonstrated by modulating the resistance states of spin-valve structures using electric fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Innovative Technologies for a Low Carbon Electricity System

The electricity sector represents the centerpiece of decarbonization pathways for the state. Decrease in the cost of renewable electricity generation, combined with ample solar energy, wind and other renewable resources, presents a realistic way to achieve electricity generation that is nearly free of CO 2 emissions by mid-century. Expansion of renewable electricity supply could allow replacement of many CO 2 -emitting technologies with ones that use electricity—in transportation, buildings, and possibly industry. Key elements of the path for California’s electricity sector are: restrain electricity demand through higher efficiency, rapidly expand renewable electricity generation, develop electricity storage to complement renewable electricity, manage flexible electricity loads for a low-carbon electricity system, electrify where appropriate to reduce CO 2 emissions, and maintain reliable and resilient electricity supply. This report provides an overview of a multitude of innovative technologies in each of the above areas that have the potential to help the state meet its decarbonization goals, while lowering costs and promoting greater reliability. The information presented provides a portrait of the landscape of technology innovation that can help policymakers, state agencies, and interested parties develop strategies to meet the state’s goals and to target efforts to support and nurture technology innovation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to a high of 40-50%. The analysis builds on hourly wholesale energy and capacity prices in different VRE scenarios for four wholesale markets in the United States for the year 2030 (CAISO, ERCOT, NYISO, and SPP). The principal question for this exploration is whether private and public electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE scenario with 40-50% wind and solar? This scoping report evaluates the impacts of changing patterns of peak system needs on the benefits of demand reductions by examining the altered value of different energy efficiency (EE) measures. Similarly, we investigate new opportunities for large energy consumers that may arise from periods with very low wholesale electricity prices. We calculate the value of new process investments (e.g., hydrogen production and other generalized electro-commodities), showcase the varying value of new product storage investments (such as reservoir extensions at a desalination plant), and estimate the benefits of increased process flexibility that uses electricity as a process-input in addition to traditional fossil fuels (e.g., district energy systems). Finally, many decentralized decision-makers and end-use customers are not directly exposed to wholesale electricity prices but instead receive price signals from their retail electricity rates. As wind and solar shares increase, we compare the economic efficiency of flat retail rates relative to more dynamic time-of-use tariffs with and without critical peak-pricing events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Project Phase 1 Report: Reducing Data Center Peak Cooling Demand and Energy Costs With Cold Underground Thermal Energy Storage (Cold UTES)

Cold Underground Thermal Energy Storage (Cold UTES) is an ultra-long duration grid energy storage technology. With Cold-UTES, low-cost grid power is converted to cold thermal energy and stored in the native subsurface rock at the point of use. Cold UTES is one approach within the general category of engineered geothermal systems. Cold UTES for peak-hour cooling of data centers (DCs) was studied for deployment in Maricopa County, Arizona and Loudoun County, Virgina using thermal storage capacities from 4 GWh-th to over 1,000 GWh-th (>1 Terawatt-hour). The two sites have different power and transmission systems, available grid energy resources, daily and seasonal load profiles, weather conditions, and grid regulatory requirements. The study results indicate high value for both locations and because of this, likely indicates value across most of the US and the world. The basis of the study was a 1,000 MW-e hourly electric use of DC computing and auxiliary loads, which was modeled as 1 GW-th of thermal load to a dry cooled heat rejection system - i.e. a cooling system that does not consume water. The electric power required for cooling the DC varies as the air temperature changes. In cold weather only the dry-coolers are used, with an electrical load for cooling load as low as 10 MW-e. In hot summer hours, chillers and dry- coolers are required, which raises the electrical load for cooling load to as much as 300 MW-e. The continuous and peak cooling electrical loads result in a grid interconnection requirement of no less than 1,300 MW-e. From both a grid and thermal design modeling perspective the 1.3 GW-e could either be a single facility or result from the total load at multiple sites.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Fast-airflow tumble clothes dryer with small thermoelectric heat pump: Experimental evaluation

Residential clothes drying accounts for about 5% of the total residential-sector energy consumption in the United States. Most dryers use electric resistance heaters to dry clothes and have low efficiencies. Higher-efficiency dryers that use vapor compression heat pumps are expensive and complex and have not gained a large market share in the United States. A novel tumble clothes dryer using a small thermoelectric heat pump with faster airflow than typical dryers is presented in this work. The benchtop performance of the thermoelectric heat pump and high-speed blower are presented, and the development of the prototype dryer is described. The dryer was tested for efficiency and dry time for a range of airflow rates and applied currents to the thermoelectric heat pump. The combined efficiency factor was 5.09–6.29 lb BDW /kWh (specific moisture extraction rate of 1.23–1.53 kg w /kWh) with 100–138 min dry times for these tests. The measured efficiency was 36 %–68 % greater than the minimum efficiency standard in the United States, and compared with vapor compression heat pump–based clothes dryers, the prototype dryer had less expensive, less complex components and did not use refrigerants. Finally, the performance of this small thermoelectric heat pump clothes dryer is also compared with previous iterations of the thermoelectric tumble clothes dryer described in the literature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Water Recovery From Cooling Tower Plumes

According to studies by the UN and the US State Department, we are on the path to an extreme freshwater shortage by 2030. The US’s largest water withdrawal source is power plants, which account for 39% of total US freshwater withdrawals, mostly for cooling. Cooling towers are the most common cooling system. To solve these problems and enable efficient water- based cooling – Infinite Cooling’s novel technology uses electric fields to ionize the air, charge the escaping water leaving cooling towers and direct the water toward mesh collectors where it collects and gets recycled for use in the cooling system. This technology was developed at MIT and was reduced to practice on a lab-scale prototype, and a prototype at the MIT Cogeneration Power Plant. This DOE award funded taking this technology from a lab-scale prototype to TRL 5 on an operating cooling tower in the field at the MIT Nuclear Research Laboratory. The funding helped to design and optimize an electrostatic plume collection system and test it in high-fidelity lab setting and in actual field conditions on a cooling tower. Throughout the award, Infinite Cooling investigated the formation of plumes on cooling towers, used that information to optimize the design, material and electrical properties of the collection device and quantified the collection yield via flow rate and water quality.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗