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DOE OSTI2022

Task 12 PV Sustainability - Status of PV Module Recycling in Selected IEA PVPS Task 12 Countries

Photovoltaic (PV) deployment has accelerated in recent years compared to projections in the early 2010s. This means that PV end of life (EOL) waste streams will also increase at a higher pace than anticipated. To meet and optimise PV EOL management, appropriate regulatory and technological approaches must be implemented in the near term, ensuring that available options are adapted to the conditions of each country or region. This report aims to review the current regulatory and industrial landscape for selected countries belonging to the International Energy Agency's PV Power Systems technology collaboration programme, to assess status of PV EOL management, allow for comparison and cross-fertilization, and establish a foundation for future tracking of progress. Although volumes of EOL PV modules are still small, EOL PV is treated and recycled in a proper manner in the countries and regions that have EOL regulations in place. However, the current low volumes, limited available recycling technologies, logistics challenges, and undeveloped markets for recovered materials result in a high-cost, low-revenue scenario for PV module recycling globally. Nevertheless, the implementation of PV EOL regulations in more countries and R&D investment in PV recycling is expected to accelerate further improvements to meet future demand and to achieve high-value, low-cost recycling. We hope this report contributes to understanding the global status of PV recycling and to accelerating its development as a promising option for the proper EOL management of PV modules in the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Irradiation Resistant Thermocouple Drift Model Application to Commercial Thermocouples

The Advance Sensors and Instrumentation fiscal year report on the direct application of the HTIR-TC drift model on other commercial thermocouples. The Type N and K thermocouples are useful in irradiation environments up to 1100°C (or 1290°C for short bursts and/or single use), but over temperature and high fluence can cause the TCs to drift. The HTIR-TC drift model predicts the end use environment of temperature and irradiation and the total time scale to show the amount of drift a thermocouple will undergo. The model predicts that HTIR-TCs at full temperature range and fluence of 10^21 N/cm^2 will exhibit a drift of under -1%. The type N and K TCs will see a drift of -0.5% at the same fluence, but temperatures below 1100°C. Above this temperature the Type N and K TCs quickly de-calibrate and will give erroneous temperatures measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weapon Material Program: FY24 Annual Report

The Weapon Material Program (WMP) framework was started in July of Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, along with other Mission Support organizations. The first year was about building the organization with the right people, identifying needs, and developing a vision for expectations. It was also a year to move forward with new equipment and technology for weapon material processes. With numerous improvements, WMP is building world-class systems for production, warehousing, and analytical testing. FY 2023 was a year of development. The WMP was a new organization defining its identity, its focus, and its mission. At the end of FY 2023, WMP evaluated its current position and its immediate needs along with its future goals. The entire organization set out on this FY 2024 journey to success. The lack of funding, staffing, and visibility dramatically impacted weapon material operations, testing, and qualifications. This neglect required numerous areas to be addressed and improvement plans to be developed and implemented. WMP processes, procedures, and overall business operations were dramatically in need of updating, revision, and formal documentation. This included all areas: technology, equipment, facility modifications/upgrades, and testing improvements. To ensure organizational improvement and forward momentum in FY 2024, WMP executed a multi-faceted strategic vision. Action items included the following: • Filling open positions with capable personnel who would contribute to a more robust organization • Establishing more formal operations and problem-solving techniques • Improving departmental procedures to align with expanding scope • Improving training • Establishing collaboration meetings with other departments/organizations • Focusing on the importance of identifying and mitigating concerns with At-Risk Materials (@RM) • Leading modernization eff orts for Blending and Packaging (B&P) We are on the verge of a transformational improvement in all of our processes in support of the mission. The following area achievements outlined in this report reflect the hard work toward achieving the goal of “being the material Subject Matter Experts in the nuclear enterprise”.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi- November 2020 Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2021 (FY2021) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this FY2021 report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. This report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities for existing and new reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application Results on Early Exascale Hardware

This Exascale Computing Project (ECP) milestone report summarizes the status of 27 of the 31 ECP Applications Development (AD) subprojects at the end of FY21. In November and December of 2021, a comprehensive assessment of AD projects was conducted by the ECP leadership along with external subject matter experts (SMEs). (NNSA application projects are reviewed separately using the ASC milestone process.) The AD review committee—consisting of the AD lead, AD deputy, Level 3 (L3), and at least one external project SME—was tasked with evaluating each project’s progress relative to ECP project goals specified in the FY21 timeline. Key areas of focus were code maturity and performance on pre-exascale systems, an in-depth analysis of final key performance parameter (KPP) verification contracts, and future R&D priorities in the final year of ECP and beyond. As such, this report contains not only an accurate snapshot of each subproject’s current status but also represents a broad account of successes and challenges in porting large scientific applications to DOE’s next-generation high-performance computing architectures – the Frontier and Aurora systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

U.S. Effort Support to Examinations at Fukushima - Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests (FY2020)

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document, which has been updated to include Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020) information, summarizes results from a U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, comprehensive annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. For FY2020, it was decided that the program would gain more benefit from a more concise report that emphasizes new information and insights that affect prior findings and recommendations from the U.S. experts participating in this effort. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this letter report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. In addition, findings and associated recommendations are provided regarding information presented by TEPCO Holdings, Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation (NDF), and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). This letter report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies, improve maintenance activities (especially in areas of radiation protection) and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities of existing and new reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

One Earth Energy FEED Process Design Basis

This report establishes the process design basis for the front-end engineering design (FEED) of a carbon capture and injection facility at One Earth Energy's (OEE) ethanol production plant in Gibson City, Illinois, developed as part of the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III project. The facility is designed to compress and dehydrate up to approximately 458,000 metric tonnes of CO 2 per year, sourced directly from OEE's ethanol fermenters, for permanent injection into a saline aquifer approximately four miles from the plant. At normal operating conditions, the system will process 1,290 metric tonnes of CO 2 per day, assuming 355 operating days per year and an ethanol production rate of 160 million gallons per year. The proposed process trains a multistage centrifugal blower with a five-stage reciprocating compressor, delivering CO 2 to the injection wellhead at up to 1,500 psig. Triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydration, applied after the fourth compression stage, reduces water content to a target of 10 lb/MMscf, well within the 30 lb/MMscf injection limit. Beyond dehydration, no additional treatment is required; trace impurities including oxygen and nitrogen will remain in the injected stream. Key design considerations include the absence of spare cooling tower capacity at the site, necessitating new cooling infrastructure, and the need for a new electrical substation to support large motor loads. The facility is designed for continuous, largely unattended operation, monitored around the clock by existing OEE operations staff. This document serves as the foundational reference for all subsequent detailed engineering activities associated with the OEE CO 2 injection facility.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

BISON capability and validation for U3Si2, Cr2O3-doped UO2, FeCrAl, and Cr-coated Zircaloy ATF concepts

Development, implementation, and validation of material and behavior models for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts in the BISON fuel performance code began in 2014 in response to the events that occurred at the Fukushima Daichii nuclear power plant in March 2011. Early on, the focus was on U3Si2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding as part of a high-impact problem through the Nuclear Energy and Advanced Model- ing Simulation program [1]. Then, developments for Cr2O3- doped UO2 fuel, as well as SiC-SiC and Cr-coated Zircaloy cladding began based upon industry interests. Near the end of fiscal year 2018 the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors took over further Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) work in BISON in support of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) engagement. Discussions with the NRC clarified their list of priority fuel and cladding concepts, which included Cr2O3-doped UO2 and U3Si2 fuels, as well as Cr-coated Zircaloy and FeCrAl claddings. Further, reports similar in form to NUREG/CR-7024 [2] that was developed for traditional light water reactor (LWR) materials, UO2 fuel with Zircaloy claddings were created for the priority fuel and cladding concepts. In this paper select details from the reports entitled "ATF material model development and validation for priority fuel concepts" [3] and "ATF material model development and validation for priority cladding concepts" [4] are presented. First, a brief overview of the available models and their associated uncertainty are provided for the priority fuel and cladding concepts. Then, for the concepts with experimental data, comparisons between simulation and experiment are shown taking into account forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques. For the concepts without publicly available experimental data, parametric studies incorporating forward UQ are completed to verify claims made about the materials’ behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY2022 Progress Report for Advanced Re-fabrication/Re-instrumentation Capability Development

In support of performing follow-on irradiation experiments with previously irradiated materials, the Halden Reactor Project developed unique and state of the art capabilities to refabricate and re-instrument previously irradiated materials. Such materials were used in in-pile tests at the Halden reactor, and out-of-pile tests for example using furnaces as a heat source. The decision to close the Halden Reactor Project results in the loss of this refabrication and re-instrumentation capability. As a result, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) has determined to develop refabrication and re-instrumentation capability at the unique shielded facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The development of refabrication capability has been completed and demonstrated. This report focuses on the complementary aspects of reinstrumentation and the progress to-date. Halden spent nearly 30 years developing both refabrication and re-instrumentation. Collaboration with Halden is allowing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to develop this capability much more rapidly. In FY-21 the results include development of the capability to drill annular center holes in ceramic UO2 fuel pellets, development of fuel rod end caps with feedthroughs for centerline instrumentation inside the rodlet, The procurement of both fuel drilling and welding demonstration equipment from Halden, evaluation of surface thermocouple attachments to support better understanding of temperature measurement uncertainties, and finally, the conceptual design of a new shielded enclosure where advanced refabrication and re-instrumentation equipment can be housed. In FY-22, the results include; Completing set up of the drilling and welding modules procured from Halden, and early experimental trials using that equipment.; Completing set up of an out-of-cell circumferential weld system to allow for further weld development to take place and support fabrication of fuel for fresh fuel experiments.; Evaluation of the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) infrastructure to support future installation of advanced re-fabrication/re-instrumentation equipment, specifically related to necessary infrastructure for cryo-drilling.; Developments in dry-drilling alternative. Including experimental studies showing cordierite is the most suitable surrogate for UO 2 for performing drilling studies. That drilling performance is enhanced when a fuel-clad bonding condition is simulated.; Conceptual design completed for attaching surface thermocouples to irradiated fuel in support of TWIST capsule experiments. The authors would like to thank the numerous colleagues at INL and Halden who provided support in accomplishing this work. Their support both material and intellectual is invaluable in advancing the state of the art and establishing the capabilities for refabrication and re-instrumentation at INL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic and Responsive Distributed Energy Resource Education Solutions for Building, Fire, and Safety Department Officials (Final Technical Report)

From April 2021 through March 2024, the Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC) led a collaborative project to develop a free online clearinghouse of educational resources about solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), and grid-interactive efficient building (GEB) technologies. Two websites—the Clean Energy Clearinghouse and CleanEnergyTraining.org—housed over 70 educational resources. Over the course of the three-year project, 154,272 unique visitors accessed the learning materials. Learner feedback was overwhelmingly positive. Even through the end of the project, there was sustained demand for education and communication. A primary innovation of the project was to drive multiple complementary audiences to the same place. Building owners, designers, installation contractors and developers, authorities having jurisdiction (AHJs), and fire service personnel all benefit from a shared understanding of clean energy technologies, including safety and code-related requirements. When considering the impact on the target audience, the project team worked with partners and advisors to inform resource creation and delivery in such a way as to address key motivational factors of the target audience and compel each user to seek additional information on the topic and return to the Clean Energy Clearinghouse website as their central location for more information. Resources were intentionally developed to be concise—five to 15 minutes—and accessible, meaning not overly technical. Providing basic information demystified the technologies and invited the professional to explore additional learning opportunities. Awardee and partner collaboration was key to project success. IREC facilitated collaboration among the other Topic 2 awardees, Southface and New Buildings Institute (NBI). The three awardees shared relevant information gained through discovery and validation questionnaires that informed product development and reduced duplication of effort by coordinating the development of complementary, and not competing, educational resources. Inspired by this collaboration, IREC brought on additional partners even in the final year of the project. Five regional energy efficiency organizations were part of the project, which expanded the connection between efficiency and distributed energy resources. We also included resources on the Clearinghouse that were developed through other federally funded projects, such as the Buildings Energy Efficiency Frontiers & Innovation Technologies (BENEFIT) program. The website was developed with the learner in mind, and not solely the funding source. Feedback from stakeholders throughout the project, and especially in its final year, indicated the need for continued education and facilitated communication among stakeholders to further the safe and widespread adoption of clean energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A real-time search for Type Ia Supernovae with late-time interactions with circumstellar material in ZTF data

While it is generally accepted that Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are the terminal explosions of white dwarfs (WDs), the nature of their progenitor systems and the mechanisms that lead up to these explosions remain widely debated. In rare cases, the SN ejecta interact with circumstellar material (CSM) that had previously been ejected from the progenitor system. The longer the delay between the creation of the CSM and the SN explosion, the greater the distance between the SN explosion site and the CSM and the later the onset of the interaction. The unknown distance between the CSM and SN explosion site makes it impossible to predict when the interaction will start. If the time between the SN explosion and the onset of the CSM interaction is of the order of several months to years, the SN has generally faded and it is no longer actively followed up on. This makes it even more difficult to detect the interaction while it is happening. In this work, we report on a real-time monitoring programme running between 13 November 2023 and 9 July 2024. It monitored 6914 SNe Ia for signs of late-time rebrightening using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). Flagged candidates were rapidly followed up on with photometry and spectroscopy to confirm the late-time excess and its position. We report the discovery of a ∼50 day rebrightening event in SN 2020qxz around 1200 rest-frame days after the peak of its light curve. SN 2020qxz exhibited signs of an early CSM interaction, but had faded from view over two years before its reappearance. Initial follow-up spectroscopy revealed the presence of four emission lines, while later follow-up spectroscopy showed that these had faded shortly after the end of the ZTF-detected rebrightening event. Our best match for these emission lines are H β (blueshifted by ∼5900 km s −1 ) and Ca II λ8542 , N I λ8567 , and K I λλ8763, 8767 (all blueshifted by 5100 km s −1 ; although we note that the line identifications are uncertain). This shows that catching and following up on late-time interactions as they occur can offer new clues on the nature of the progenitor systems that produce these SNe by putting constraints on the possible type of donor star. The only way to do this systematically is to use large sky surveys such as ZTF and the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to monitor a large sample of objects for the rare events that reappear long after the object has faded from view.

circumstellar matter↗
DOE OSTI2019

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

FY22 NCSP accomplishments for U and Pu Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation covers fiscal year 2022 for Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) accomplishments for Uranium (U) and Plutonium (Pu) evaluations. This presentation includes an overview on plutonium and uranium. Additionally, this presentation covers the inclusion of sub-thermal data for 235 U and the inclusion of LANL ratio capture-to-fission data for 233 U and 235 Pu. The presentation ends with a discussion on 239 Pu Primary fit of Mosby's data as reported and a look at the uncertainty quantification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses, across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supply chain optimization of sustainable aviation fuel from carinata in the Southeastern United States

We report carinata is a purpose-grown oilseed feedstock for renewable fuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) that can replace conventional aviation fuel (CAF). Given carinata is a new crop in the Southeastern United States, it is crucial to analyze its sustainability from a supply chain perspective. This study developed a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and simulated it for 20 years, starting from a farm (county-level data) and ending at the airport. About 2.06 million ha in Alabama, Florida, and Georgia combined were found suitable for carinata production. Given the three-year rotation period, about 0.69 million hectares can be cultivated annually, approximately 65% of which was in Georgia. About 2.4% of the combined SAF annual demand of four major airports (about 210 thousand t) in the study area is satisfied at that level of carinata cultivation. However, all available SAF was supplied to the Atlanta airport as this decision minimizes the supply chain cost. A total of 1343 storage units, one oil extraction mill, and one biorefinery were needed to meet the overall demand. We found that SW Georgia is the top supplier of carinata seeds. The unit cost of production and carbon intensity were estimated to be $\$$0.89 L -1 (or $\$$26.79 GJ -1 ) and 0.91 kg CO 2 e L -1 (or 27.28 kg CO 2 e GJ -1 ), respectively. This carbon intensity of carinata-based SAF was 67.8% lower than that of CAF. With variations included in SAF demand, yield, and soil carbon sequestration, carbon savings remained between 66.5% and 67.8%. Given the GHG advantage of SAF over CAF, there is justification for subsidies required to make SAF competitive.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commercial and Residential Hourly Load Profiles for All Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) Locations in the United States

One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High-quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy funded a 3-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute-resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗