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At least 163 records · Page 9

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Error analysis of bent ray radio occultation measurments

There are two types of experimental measurement errors of the Doppler data associated with the radio occultation, random and systematic. Random errors are due to thermal noise in the transmission channel, and the phase lock loop, and quantization error in the digital circuitry. These are called noise type errors. The systematic errors are due to geometric uncertainty and equipment phase instability. Considered is the amount of uncertainty, due to random measurement errors, in the refractivity profiles reconstructed by this type of indirect sensing experiment. A class of refractivity profiles is defined which approximately fit the set of measured data. Bounds are placed on the extent of this class of solution profiles. To accomplish this, the sensivity of the reconstructed refractivity profiles to errors in the measured quantity and the statistics of the errors in the measurement are examined.

Saintgermain, R. L.↗

Mars gravity field error analysis from simulated radio tracking of Mars Observer

Results are presented on the analysis of the recovery of the Martian gravity field from tracking data in the presence of unmodeled error effects associated with different orbit orientations. The analysis was based on the mission plan for the Mars Observer (MO) radio tracking data from the Deep Space Network. From the analysis, a conservative estimate of the gravitational accuracy for the entire mission could be obtained. The results suggest that, because the atmospheric drag is the dominant error source, the spacecraft orbit could possibly be raised in altitude without a significant loss of gravitational signal. A change in altitude will also alleviate the large effects seen in the spectrum the satellite resonant orders.

Smith, D. E.↗

Worst error analysis of batch filter and sequential filter in the approach phase of spacecraft navigation problems

The worst error performance of the sequential filter is compared with the performance of the batch filter which is still in general use in the deep space tracking. An approach phase of a spacecraft on a typical mission to the planet Mars is considered. The estimated parameters include the position and the speed of the spacecraft, nongravitational acceleration acting on the spacecraft, and the locations of the tracking stations.

Nishimura, T.↗

Error analysis of analytic solutions for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies - A numerical study

Analytic error bounds are presented for the solutions of approximate models for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies. The error bounds are developed for analytic solutions to Euler's equations of motion. The results are applied to obtain a simplified analytic solution for Eulerian rates and angles. The results of a sample application of the range and error bound expressions for the case of the Galileo spacecraft experiencing transverse torques demonstrate the use of the bounds in analyses of rigid body spin change maneuvers.

Kia, T.↗

Error analysis for a Mars landing

This paper presents the methodology and preliminary results of a Mars landing error study. Aeromaneuvering was used to reduce the effects of errors. The guidance and navigation techniques used were based on those used for the Space Shuttle. A simulation was built to determine the performance of these techniques in a realistic Mars landing scenario. The results indicate that knowledge errors dominate, and that terminal three-sigma errors of between 1 and 15 kilometers can be achieved depending on the data types available. The data types studied were restricted to those currently under consideration for the Mars Rover/Sample Return Mission.

Mceneaney, W. M.↗

Using APEX to Model Anticipated Human Error: Analysis of a GPS Navigational Aid

The interface development process can be dramatically improved by predicting design facilitated human error at an early stage in the design process. The approach we advocate is to SIMULATE the behavior of a human agent carrying out tasks with a well-specified user interface, ANALYZE the simulation for instances of human error, and then REFINE the interface or protocol to minimize predicted error. This approach, incorporated into the APEX modeling architecture, differs from past approaches to human simulation in Its emphasis on error rather than e.g. learning rate or speed of response. The APEX model consists of two major components: (1) a powerful action selection component capable of simulating behavior in complex, multiple-task environments; and (2) a resource architecture which constrains cognitive, perceptual, and motor capabilities to within empirically demonstrated limits. The model mimics human errors arising from interactions between limited human resources and elements of the computer interface whose design falls to anticipate those limits. We analyze the design of a hand-held Global Positioning System (GPS) device used for radical and navigational decisions in small yacht recalls. The analysis demonstrates how human system modeling can be an effective design aid, helping to accelerate the process of refining a product (or procedure).

VanSelst, Mark↗

Orbit IMU alignment: Error analysis

A comprehensive accuracy analysis of orbit inertial measurement unit (IMU) alignments using the shuttle star trackers was completed and the results are presented. Monte Carlo techniques were used in a computer simulation of the IMU alignment hardware and software systems to: (1) determine the expected Space Transportation System 1 Flight (STS-1) manual mode IMU alignment accuracy; (2) investigate the accuracy of alignments in later shuttle flights when the automatic mode of star acquisition may be used; and (3) verify that an analytical model previously used for estimating the alignment error is a valid model. The analysis results do not differ significantly from expectations. The standard deviation in the IMU alignment error for STS-1 alignments was determined to the 68 arc seconds per axis. This corresponds to a 99.7% probability that the magnitude of the total alignment error is less than 258 arc seconds.

Corson, R. W.↗

An error analysis of the recovery capability of the relative sea-surface profile over the Puerto Rican trench from multi-station and ship tracking of GEOS-2

Error analyses were performed to examine the height error in a relative sea-surface profile as determined by a combination of land-based multistation C-band radars and optical lasers and one ship-based radar tracking the GEOS 2 satellite. It was shown that two relative profiles can be obtained: one using available south-to-north passes of the satellite and one using available north-to-south type passes. An analysis of multi-station tracking capability determined that only Antigua and Grand Turk radars are required to provide satisfactory orbits for south-to-north type satellite passes, while a combination of Merritt Island, Bermuda, and Wallops radars provide secondary orbits for north-to-south passes. Analysis of ship tracking capabilities shows that high elevation single pass range-only solutions are necessary to give only moderate sensitivity to systematic error effects.

Stanley, H. R.↗

Methodology for error analysis and simulation of lidar aerosol measurements

A methodology is presented for objective and automated determination of the uncertainty in lidar aerosol measurements. This methodology is based on standard error-propagation procedures, a large data base on atmospheric behavior, and long experience in lidar data processing. Algebraic expressions for probable error are derived as a function of the relevant parameters. The validity of these expressions is then tested by making simulated measurements and analyses in which random errors of appropriate size are injected at proper steps of the measurement and analysis process. An illustrative example is given where the methodology is applied to a new lidar system now being used for airborne measurements of the stratospheric aerosol.

Russell, P. B.↗

Onboard Navigation Error Analysis for Aerocapture at Uranus

Capturing into an orbit around Uranus using aerocapture allows one to design a mission with faster interplanetary trajectories and less propellant requirements. Such an aerocapture mission would rely on the onboard Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) subsystems to successfully capture into an orbit around Uranus. Uncertainty in the state information and the noise in the sensor measurements induce navigation errors in the guidance and control subsystems, which can affect the overall performance of the aerocapture mission at Uranus. Understanding the effect of these navigation errors on mission performance is essential. To this end, this work considers different sensors with varying quality to understand their impact on the overall mission performance. In addition, this paper studies the impact of the uncertainty in the initial states used to initialize the onboard navigation filter and understands their effect on mission performance. This paper also shows the onboard navigation errors obtained from the Linear Covariance (LinCov) analysis and uses them for verification and validation (V\&V) of the results from Program to Optimize and Simulate Trajectories-II (POST2).

Aerocapture↗

Eigenvalue error analysis of viscously damped structures using a Ritz reduction method

The efficient solution of the eigenvalue problem that results from inserting passive dampers with variable stiffness and damping coefficients into a structure is addressed. Eigenanalysis of reduced models obtained by retaining a number of normal modes augmented with Ritz vectors corresponding to the static solutions resulting from the load patterns introduced by the dampers has been empirically shown to yield excellent approximations to the full eigenvalue problem. An analysis of this technique in the case of a single damper is presented. A priori and a posteriori error estimates are generated and tested on numerical examples. Comparison theorems with modally truncated models and a Markov parameter matching reduced-order model are derived. These theorems corroborate the heuristic that residual flexibility methods improve low-frequency approximation of the system. The analysis leads to other techniques for eigenvalue approximation. Approximate closed-form solutions are derived that include a refinement to eigenvalue derivative methods for approximation. An efficient Newton scheme is also developed. A numerical example is presented demonstrating the effectiveness of each of these methods.

Chu, Cheng-Chih↗

Modeling error analysis of stationary linear discrete-time filters

The performance of Kalman-type, linear, discrete-time filters in the presence of modeling errors is considered. The discussion is limited to stationary performance, and bounds are obtained for the performance index, the mean-squared error of estimates for suboptimal and optimal (Kalman) filters. The computation of these bounds requires information on only the model matrices and the range of errors for these matrices. Consequently, a design can easily compare the performance of a suboptimal filter with that of the optimal filter, when only the range of errors in the elements of the model matrices is available.

Patel, R.↗