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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

More high-impact atmospheric river-induced extreme precipitation events under warming in a high-resolution model

Extreme precipitation events, as occurred in Europe 2021, or western North America 2023, with an intensity of 75 mm/day or 100 mm/day, respectively, exert a catastrophic impact. Lower-resolution (~100 km) climate models cannot simulate the intensity, nor their response to greenhouse warming. Using a high-resolution (~25 km) model capable of simulating such events, here we show that frequency-weighted area of such events over western Europe and the west coast of North America likely expands by more than 80% under an approximately 4°C of global warming from the historical levels. Along the west coasts of Europe and North America, area impacted by atmospheric rivers-induced extreme precipitation events is projected to double, driven by intensified landfalling atmospheric rivers. Thermodynamic processes drive the increase, whereas dynamic processes reduce the intensity over western Europe but enhance it along the west coast of North America. Here our findings provide policy-relevant information for climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep-learning based raw waveform region-of-interest finder for the liquid argon time projection chamber

The liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology has an excellent capability to measure properties of low-energy neutrinos produced by the sun and supernovae and to look for exotic physics at very low energies. In order to achieve those physics goals, it is crucial to identify and reconstruct signals in the waveforms recorded on each TPC wire. In this work, we report on a novel algorithm based on a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) to look for the region-of-interest (ROI) in raw waveforms. We test this algorithm using data from the ArgoNeuT experiment in conjunction with an improved noise mitigation procedure and a more realistic data-driven noise model for simulated events. This deep-learning ROI finder shows promising performance in extracting small signals and gives an efficiency approximately twice that of the traditional algorithm in the low energy region of ~0.03–0.1 MeV. This method offers great potential to explore low-energy physics using LArTPCs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulse Shape Discrimination in JSNS 2

JSNS 2 (J-PARC Sterile Neutrino Search at J-PARC Spallation Neutron Source) is an experiment that is searching for sterile neutrinos via the observation of $\overline{ν}$ μ → $\overline{ν}$ e appearance oscillations using neutrinos from muon decay-at-rest. For this search, rejecting cosmic-ray-induced neutron events by Pulse Shape Discrimination (PSD) is essential because the JSNS2 detector is located above ground, on the third floor of the building. We have achieved 94.95% ± 0.15% rejection of neutron events while keeping 92.82% ± 1.77% of signal, electron-like events using a data-driven likelihood method. This article will report the PSD technique using the full fiducial volume of the JSNS2 detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. VIII. Disk Formation and Evolution of Simulated Milky Way Mass Galaxy Progenitors at 1 < z < 5

We investigate how differences in the stellar feedback produce disks with different morphologies in Milky Way–like progenitors over 1 ≤ z ≤ 5, using eight state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamics simulation codes in the AGORA project. In three of the participating codes, a distinct, rotation-dominated inner core emerges with a formation timescale of ≲300 Myr, largely driven by a major merger event, while two other codes exhibit similar signs of wet compaction—gaseous shrinkage into a compact starburst phase—at earlier epochs. The remaining three codes show only weak evidence of wet compaction. Consequently, we divide the simulated galaxies into two groups: those with strong compaction signatures and those with weaker ones. Galaxies in these two groups differ in size, stellar age gradients, and disk-to-total mass ratios. Specifically, codes with strong wet compaction build their outer disks in an inside-out fashion, leading to negative age gradients, whereas codes with weaker compaction feature flat or positive age gradients caused primarily by outward stellar migration. Although the stellar half-mass radii of these two groups diverge at z ∼ 3, the inclusion of dust extinction brings their sizes and shapes in mock observations closer to each other and to observed galaxies. We attribute the observed morphological differences primarily to variations in the stellar feedback implementations—such as delayed cooling timescales, and feedback strengths—that regulate both the onset and duration of compaction. Overall, our results suggest that disk assembly at high redshifts is highly sensitive to the details of the stellar feedback prescriptions in simulations.

Jung, Minyong [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding predefined thresholds. When evaluated using historical data over the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), the technique credibly finds RoS events in published literature and flags events that are followed by anomalously high streamflow as measured by gauge data along the river. When comparing four different datasets representing the same 21-year period, we find large differences in RoS event magnitude and frequency, primarily driven by differences in estimated surface runoff and snowmelt. Using dataset-specific thresholds improves agreement between datasets but does not account for all discrepancies. We show that factors such as meteorological forcing and coupling frequency, as well as choice of land surface model, play roles in how data products capture these compound extremes and suggest care is to be taken when climate datasets are used by stakeholders for operational decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ion Acceleration in Driven Magnetic Reconnection during High-energy–Density Plasma Interaction

Strongly driven magnetic reconnection occurs in astrophysical events and also in laboratory experiments with laser-produced plasma. We have performed 2.5D particle-in-cell simulations of collisions of two high-energy–density plasmas resulting in strongly driven magnetic reconnection that demonstrates significant non-thermal ion acceleration. Such acceleration is significant only when the plasma beta is sufficiently low that the Alfvén speed at the reconnection inflow exceeds the thermal speed. Under these conditions, the most energetic ions are primarily accelerated by the Hall electric field in the reconnection outflow, especially at the trailing edge of an emerging plasmoid in the outflow. Here, laboratory experiments in the near future should be able to confirm these predictions and their applicability to astrophysical situations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modelling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, they suffer from high variance estimation due to the inherent data scarcity. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). We propose an extreme value theory based actor-critic approach, namely, Extreme Valued Actor-Critic (EVAC) which effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Mining and Machine Learning for Power System Monitoring, Understanding, and Impact Evaluation

This chapter presents results from the Big Data analysis framework to improve power system situational awareness and system reliability. For this purpose, a dataset with real-world phasor measurement unit data and historical transmission system outage data has been created and used to carry out the analysis. Several statistical analysis and machine learning methods have been developed and implemented for event and anomaly detection and modeling. Detection and analysis results for actual examples of power system events are presented. Finally, data-driven characterization and risk assessment methods for weather-related extremes in power systems are developed and demonstrated on the Bonneville Power Administration system. These applications demonstrate the capability of Machine Learning (ML) methods to monitor system abnormalities, to predict system events, and to characterize the impact of extreme events on power grid

data mining, power grid, machine learning, anomaly↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulation of a high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor: Flame structure and stabilisation mechanism

A high-pressure hydrogen micromix combustor has been investigated using direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry to examine the flame structure and stabilisation mechanism. The configuration of the combustor was based on the design by Schefer et al., using numerical periodicity to mimic a large square array. A precursor simulation of an opposed jet-in-crossflow was first conducted to generate appropriate partially-premixed inflow boundary conditions for the subsequent reacting simulation. The resulting flame can be described as an predominantly-lean inhomogeneously-premixed lifted jet flame. Five main zones were identified: a jet mixing region, a core flame, a peripheral flame, a recirculation zone, and combustion products. The core flame, situated over the jet mixing region, was found to burn as a thin reaction front, responsible for over 85% of the total fuel consumption. The peripheral flame shrouded the core flame, had low mean flow with high turbulence, and burned at very lean conditions (in the distributed burning regime). It was shown that turbulent premixed flame propagation was an order-of-magnitude too slow to stabilise the flame at these conditions. Stabilisation was identified to be due to ignition events resulting from turbulent mixing of fuel from the jet into mean recirculation of very lean hot products. Ignition events were found to correlate with shear-driven Kelvin-Helmholtz vortices, and increased in likelihood with streamwise distance. At the flame base, isolated events were observed, which developed into rapidly burning flame kernels that were blown downstream. Further downstream, near-simultaneous spatially-distributed ignition events were observed, which appeared more like ignition sheets. The paper concludes with a broader discussion that considers generalising from the conditions considered here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energetic Electron Precipitation Driven by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves from ELFIN’s Low Altitude Perspective

We review comprehensive observations of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave-driven energetic electron precipitation using data collected by the energetic electron detector on the Electron Losses and Fields InvestigatioN (ELFIN) mission, two polar-orbiting low-altitude spinning CubeSats, measuring 50-5000 keV electrons with good pitch-angle and energy resolution. EMIC wave-driven precipitation exhibits a distinct signature in energy-spectrograms of the precipitating-to-trapped flux ratio: peaks at >0.5 MeV which are abrupt (bursty) (lasting ~17 s, or ΔL ~ 0.56) with significant substructure (occasionally down to sub-second timescale). We attribute the bursty nature of the precipitation to the spatial extent and structuredness of the wave field at the equator. Multiple ELFIN passes over the same MLT sector allow us to study the spatial and temporal evolution of the EMIC wave - electron interaction region. Case studies employing conjugate ground-based or equatorial observations of the EMIC waves reveal that the energy of moderate and strong precipitation at ELFIN approximately agrees with theoretical expectations for cyclotron resonant interactions in a cold plasma. Using multiple years of ELFIN data uniformly distributed in local time, we assemble a statistical database of ~50 events of strong EMIC wave-driven precipitation. Most reside at L ~ 5 – 7 at dusk, while a smaller subset exists at L ~ 8 – 12 at post-midnight. The energies of the peak-precipitation ratio and of the half-peak precipitation ratio (our proxy for the minimum resonance energy) exhibit an L-shell dependence in good agreement with theoretical estimates based on prior statistical observations of EMIC wave power spectra. The precipitation ratio’s spectral shape for the most intense events has an exponential falloff away from the peak (i.e., on either side of ~ 1.45 MeV). It too agrees well with quasi-linear diffusion theory based on prior statistics of wave spectra. It should be noted though that this diffusive treatment likely includes effects from nonlinear resonant interactions (especially at high energies) and nonresonant effects from sharp wave packet edges (at low energies). Sub-MeV electron precipitation observed concurrently with strong EMIC wave-driven >1 MeV precipitation has a spectral shape that is consistent with efficient pitch-angle scattering down to ~ 200-300 keV by much less intense higher frequency EMIC waves at dusk (where such waves are most frequent). At ~100 keV, whistler-mode chorus may be implicated in concurrent precipitation. These results confirm the critical role of EMIC waves in driving relativistic electron losses. Nonlinear effects may abound and require further investigation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven picosecond X-ray imaging for quantitative plasma-induced shock characterization

Imaging dynamic events, especially shockwave behavior, is key to advancing high-energy-density (HED) research. Recent advances in fourth- and fifth-generation X-ray light sources allow for high-resolution imaging of fast phenomena, but limited beam time necessitates maximizing data acquisition. We present a benchtop-scale pulsed plasma device submerged in liquid heptane, capable of generating dynamic events at rates exceeding 10 Hz, supporting the field’s data-driven goals by producing large, high-quality imaging datasets. Using X-ray phase contrast imaging (XPCI) at the Advanced Photon Source, we imaged weak shockwaves (Mach ~ 1.2) in heptane interacting with plasma-induced cavitation bubbles, causing deviation from Rankine-Hugoniot behavior; to our knowledge, this represents the first direct imaging of such interaction. Our quantitative analysis offers insight into weak shock phenomena and energy-focusing applications in pulsed plasmas. These results highlight the potential for large datasets to advance dynamic HED research at current light source facilities, and have implications for fields such as inertial confinement fusion, plasma-enhanced chemical processing, and biomedical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of a Potential DOOR Endpoint for Hospital-acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-associated Bacterial Pneumonia Using Six Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an innovative approach to clinical trial design and analysis that uses an ordinal ranking system to incorporate the overall risks and benefits of a therapeutic intervention into a single measurement. Here we derived and evaluated a disease-specific DOOR endpoint for registrational trials for hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP). Methods Through comprehensive examination of data from nearly 4000 participants enrolled in six registrational trials for HABP/VABP submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2005 and 2022, we derived and applied a HABP/VABP specific endpoint. We estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment arm would have a more favorable overall DOOR or component outcome than a participant assigned to comparator. Results DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 48.3% to 52.9% and were not statistically different. There were no significant differences between treatment arms in the component analyses. Although infectious complications and serious adverse events occurred more frequently in ventilated participants compared to non-ventilated participants, the types of events were similar. Conclusions Through a data-driven approach, we constructed and applied a potential DOOR endpoint for HABP/VABP trials. The inclusion of syndrome-specific events may help to better delineate and evaluate participant experiences and outcomes in future HABP/VABP trials and could help inform data collection and trial design.

Immunology↗