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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Smart Monitoring and Diagnostic System (SMDS) for Packaged Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps for Small/Medium Commercial Buildings: Preparation for Commercialization: CRADA 478 [Abstract only]

This project will enable Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and industry partner, mCloud Technologies, to work collaboratively to ready the Smart Monitoring and Diagnostic System (SMDS) for commercial deployment and validate its performance under real-world conditions at field sites. This project will specifically focus on 1) implementing the SMDS algorithms in a scalable cloud-based software architecture, 2) designing new, innovative, complimentary commercial services based on the SMDS, 3) enhancing the SMDS energy and cost impact algorithms to reduce uncertainty in estimates, 4) determining the lower limits on SMDS performance degradation detection, 5) validating algorithm performance and default values of adjustable thresholds with existing data from controlled physical testing and from customer packaged air conditioners and heat pumps (commonly referred to as rooftop units or RTUs), 6) field testing to validate the system on multiple customer buildings in diverse environments, and 7) expanding field deployment to a larger set of mCloud’s customer buildings. Project results by validating, enhancing, and quantifying the performance of the SMDS will position mCloud, and potential future licensees, to implement the SMDS in commercial offerings that encourage and enable use of condition-based and predictive maintenance, leading to significant reductions in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions associated with space conditioning by RTUs. Furthermore, these enhancements will increase the value of the SMDS for users and increase the potential market for its use and impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Swelling and permeability effects during propellant cookoff

Large rocket motors may violently explode when exposed to accidental fires. Even hot metal fragments from a nearby accident may penetrate the propellant and ultimately cause thermal ignition. A mechanistic understanding of heated propellants leading to thermal runaway is a major unsolved problem. Here we show that thermal ignition in propellants can be predicted using a universal cookoff model coupled to a micromechanics pressurization model. Our model predicts the time to thermal ignition in cookoff experiments with variable headspace volumes. Furthermore, we found that experiments with headspace volumes are more prone to deformation which distorts pores and causes increased permeability when the propellant expands into this headspace. Delayed ignition with larger headspace volume correlates with lower headspace pressures during decomposition. We found that our predictions matched experimental measurements best when the initial propellant was impermeable to gas flow rather than being permeable. Similar behavior is expected with other energetic materials with rubbery binders. Our model is validated using data from a separate laboratory. We also present an uncertainty analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) of thermal ignition caused by a steel fragment embedded in the propellant.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Economic Analysis of a Novel Thermal Energy Storage System Using Solid Particles for Grid Electricity Storage: Preprint

As renewable power generation becomes the mainstream new-built energy source, energy storage will become an indispensable need to complement the uncertainty of renewable resources to firm the power supply. When phasing out fossil-fuel power plants to meet the carbon neutral utility target in the midcentury around the world, large capacity of energy storage will be needed to provide reliable grid power. The integration of renewable power and storage to support future carbon-free utility has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable generation into the grid, improving the peak-load response, and balancing the electricity supply and demand. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 hours duration) can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Current energy storage methods based on pumped storage hydropower or batteries have many limitations. Thermal energy storage (TES) has unique advantages in scale and siting flexibility to provide grid-scale storage capacity. A particle-based TES system has promising cost and performance for the future growing energy storage needs. This paper introduces the system and components required for the particle TES to be technically and economically competitive. A technoeconomic analysis based on preliminary component designs and performance shows that the particle TES integrated with an efficient air-Brayton combined cycle power system can provide power for several days by low-cost, high-performance storage cycles. It addresses grid storage needs by enabling large-scale grid integration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar, thereby increasing their grid value. The design specifications and cost estimations of major components in a commercial scale system are presented in this paper. The cost model provides insights for further development and cost comparison with competing technologies.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Yesterday’s extremes, today’s new normal: flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Unplanned urban growth has left many cities increasingly vulnerable to extreme rainfall events, particularly in regions with inadequate drainage infrastructures and development encroaching on natural floodplains. Here, in this perspective paper, we examine the September 2024 floods that struck Central Nepal, triggered by a persistent low-pressure system and enhanced by converging moisture flows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal which led to widespread catastrophic damage. In the Kathmandu Valley, floodwaters expanded to more than 2.5 times the bankfull water extent, causing significant damage to housing, transportation network, and critical infrastructure, displacing thousands of residents, and severely disrupting urban services. This event highlights the urgent need for improved flood management strategies that integrate both structural and non-structural measures into the infrastructure development. While early warning systems provided critical lead time, challenges remain in reducing forecasting uncertainties and improving communication across government agencies and with local communities. A forward-looking approach is essential, including probabilistic flood forecasting systems, sustainable floodplain management, risk-sensitive land use planning, climate- and disaster- resilient infrastructure development, and the integration of nature-based solutions like urban green and blue spaces to mitigate flood impacts. By involving local communities in planning and preparedness efforts, particularly through citizen science initiatives, and engagement with underserved and disadvantaged communities, Nepal can better adapt to the growing risks posed by extreme rainfall and urban flooding and enhance long-term disaster resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas like Kathmandu Valley.

Kathmandu Valley↗

Multi-scale impacts of climate change on hydropower for long-term water-energy planning in the contiguous United States

Climate change impacts on watersheds can potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues where water serves multiple purposes including hydropower. The long-term management of water and energy resources is still mostly approached in a siloed manner at different basins or watersheds, failing to consider the potential impacts that may concurrently affect many regions at once. There is a need for a large-scale hydropower modeling framework that can examine climate impacts across adjoining river basins and balancing authorities (BAs) and provide a periodic assessment at regional to national scales. Expanding from our prior assessment only for the United States (US) federal hydropower plants, we enhance and extend two regional hydropower models to cover over 85% of the total hydropower nameplate capacity and present the first contiguous US-wide assessment of future hydropower production under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6’s high-end Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 emission scenario using an uncertainty-aware multi-model ensemble approach. We present regional hydropower projections, using both BA regions and US Hydrologic Subregions (HUC4s), to consistently inform the energy and water communities for two future periods—the near-term (2020–2039) and the mid-term (2040–2059) relative to a historical baseline period (1980–2019). We find that the median projected changes in annual hydropower generation are typically positive—approximately 5% in the near-term, and 10% in the mid-term. However, since the risk of regional droughts is also projected to increase, future planning cannot overly rely on the ensemble median, as the potential of severe hydropower reductions could be overlooked. The assessment offers an ensemble of future hydropower generation projections, providing regional utilities and power system operators with consistent data to develop drought scenarios, design long duration storage and evaluate energy infrastructure reliability under intensified inter-annual and seasonal variability.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Computational Modeling of Atmospheric Processes at Texas Southern University

Texas Southern University (TSU) is strengthening its research program in atmospheric chemistry and physics with a climate science emphasis by leveraging partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This RDPP-supported program focuses on secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) and reactive atmospheric species that influence cloud formation, precipitation processes, and radiative forcing. SOAs play a critical role in cloud microphysics and Earth’s energy balance, yet the chemical and physical mechanisms governing SOA–cloud interactions remain a significant source of uncertainty in predictive climate models. Through computational modeling, observational data analysis, and national laboratory collaboration, this program develops a skilled cohort of students trained in atmospheric science, environmental data analysis, and climate-relevant modeling. These research experiences build technical competencies that are transferable to careers in government laboratories, academia, and industry. By engaging students from historically underrepresented communities in high-impact climate research, TSU expands participation in the atmospheric sciences workforce while contributing meaningful scientific insights to DOE-supported ARM research activities. This partnership strengthens national capacity in climate science and supports the development of the next generation of atmospheric researchers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dataset for "Development of heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient parameterizations from ambient measurements"

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of particles that can have an outsized impact relative to their prevalence. To simulate INP variability, models require parameterizations for the most important sources of INPs. Most parameterizations in the literature were developed from laboratory experiments that used proxies for ambient particles. Whether these laboratory models effectively represent ambient aerosol is still not well understood and parameterizations developed from field measurements may be more atmospherically relevant. Expanding on previous work in which we used an ice chamber and an single particle mass spectrometer (SPMS) to characterize INP composition, we use the combined measurements to calculate heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for ambient particles. We find good agreement between our results for dust and sea spray aerosol with previous results. We also determine the relative contribution of each measurement to the total measurement uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach and find that the biggest source of uncertainty is the sampling efficiency of the SPMS.

Cornwell, Gavin C↗

2021 Component Innovation Awardee: Windurance, LLC

Distributed wind turbine manufacturers seeking to enter the market are often hampered by two challenges: not enough capital and no specific expertise in developing certified electronic equipment. A harsh reality is that off-the-shelf power electronics are neither certified nor cost-effective. This lack of certified controller equipment in the distributed wind energy industry adds expense and impedes market penetration related to certification for individual wind turbines, wind system projects, and installations. Normally, these certification costs would be borne repeatedly by individual turbine manufacturers or developers on a model-by-model or project-by-project basis, resulting in cost and time delays as well as uncertainty and risk for project developers and prospective owners. Windurance seeks to eliminate these challenges by developing and obtaining third-party certification of a standardized wind turbine controller. This will facilitate development, certification, and production while supporting efficiencies not easily achievable by individual manufacturers. Windurance's Distributed Wind Industry Turbine Controller will enable manufacturers to apply proprietary turbine- specific configurations and functionality. When applicable, manufacturers can expand on a Windurance-provided software framework to add unique or proprietary functionality.

CIP↗

Windowed multipole representation of R -matrix cross sections

Nuclear cross sections are basic inputs to any nuclear computation. Campaigns of experiments are fitted with the parametric R-matrix model of quantum nuclear interactions, and the resulting cross sections are documented—both pointwise and as resonance parameters (with uncertainties)—in standard evaluated nuclear data libraries (ENDF, JEFF, BROND, JENDL, CENDL, TENDL): these constitute our common knowledge of fundamental low-energy nuclear cross sections. In the past decade, a collaborative effort has been deployed to establish a new nuclear cross-section library format—the Windowed Multipole Library—with the goal of considerably reducing the computational cost of cross-section calculations in nuclear transport simulations. This work lays the theoretical foundations underpinning these efforts. From general R-matrix scattering theory, we derive the windowed multipole representation of nuclear cross sections. Though physically and mathematically equivalent to R-matrix cross sections, the windowed multipole representation is particularly well suited for subsequent temperature treatment of angle-integrated cross sections, in particular Doppler broadening, which is the averaging of cross sections over the thermal motion of the target atoms. Doppler broadening is of critical importance in neutron transport applications, as it ensures the stability of many nuclear reactors (negative thermal reactivity). Yet, Doppler broadening of nuclear cross sections has been a considerable bottleneck for nuclear transport computations, often requiring memory-costly pretabulations. We show that the windowed multipole representation can perform accurate Doppler broadening analytically (up to the first reaction threshold), from which we derive cross-section temperature derivatives to any order—all computable on the fly (without precalculations stored in memory). Furthermore, we here establish a way of converting the R-matrix resonance parameters uncertainty (covariance matrices) into windowed multipole parameters uncertainty. We show that generating stochastic nuclear cross sections by sampling from the resulting windowed multipole covariance matrix can reproduce the cross-section uncertainty in the original nuclear data file. The windowed multipole representation is therefore a novel nuclear physics formalism able to generate Doppler broadened stochastic nuclear cross sections on the fly, unlocking breakthrough computational gains for nuclear computations. Through this foundational paper, we hope to make the windowed multipole representation accessible, reproducible, and usable for the nuclear physics community, as well as provide the theoretical basis for future research on expanding its capabilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sound at Scale: Characterizing Impacts of Noise Ordinances on the Onshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the United States

Recent surveys have documented the rapid rise of sound ordinances across state and county jurisdictions, which has become crucial for wind energy siting. However, the lack of information on ordinances and computational challenges in turbine sound modeling create uncertainties regarding how evolving policies may affect resource potential and clean energy objectives. Therefore, we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles at millions of locations across the U.S. and translate them into setback distances for every residential structure. Compared to a baseline reference scenario, we find a 7% reduction in the national wind energy capacity potential when accounting for counties with existing sound ordinances. Additionally, when expanding the surveyed sound ordinances nationwide, we observe a potential loss of 53% of the national wind capacity under the most stringent ordinances, with a disproportionate share of this lost capacity coming from high-quality and low-cost wind resource. This work reveals that neglecting sound ordinances results in a significant overestimation of wind resource potential and highlights the important trade-offs between increased wind energy deployment to meet target decarbonization goals and the social/environmental impacts of this deployment that must be considered.

aeroacoustics↗

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Phenomenology of bubble size distributions in a first-order phase transition

In a cosmological first-order phase transition (FOPT), the true and false vacuum bubble radius distributions are not expected to be monochromatic, as is usually assumed. Consequently, Fermi balls (FBs) and primordial black holes (PBHs) produced in a dark FOPT will have extended mass distributions. We show how gravitational wave (GW), microlensing and Hawking evaporation signals for extended bubble radius/mass distributions deviate from the case of monochromatic distributions. The peak of the GW spectrum is shifted to lower frequencies, and the spectrum is broadened at frequencies below the peak frequency. Thus, the radius distribution of true vacuum bubbles introduces another uncertainty in the evaluation of the GW spectrum from a FOPT. The extragalactic gamma-ray signal at AMEGO-X/e-ASTROGAM from PBH evaporation may evince a break in the power-law spectrum between 5 MeV and 10 MeV for an extended PBH mass distribution. Optical microlensing surveys may observe PBH mass distributions with average masses below 10 -10 M ⊙ , which is not possible for monochromatic mass distributions. This expands the FOPT parameter space that can be explored with microlensing.

Marfatia, Danny [Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolul↗

Characterization of carbonaceous aerosols during TRACER-CAT

Absorbing aerosols (AA) have an important impact on the global radiation budget and cloud properties. The composition and properties of AA can vary substantially throughout the atmosphere, depending on the particle source and the influence of chemical aging. Uncertainties associated with the radiative effects of AA remain substantial. A key contributor to this uncertainty is understanding the extent to which coatings in general, and water uptake especially, alters absorption by AA particles and how this depends on particle composition. We deployed new and existing experimental tools during the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) campaign in Houston, TX as part of the Carbonaceous Aerosols Thrust (CAT) to provide detailed characterization of aerosol optical, chemical, and physical properties. Our TRACER-CAT measurements complemented and expanded on the planned TRACER instrumentation, allowing for more detailed characterization of aerosol properties of relevance to cloud development (a core focus of TRACER), such as the composition of particles that can act as cloud condensation nuclei, than would otherwise be available. Our measurements have allowed for assessment of the relationship(s) between AA optical properties (with a focus on absorption) and the chemical and physical characteristics (including the mixing state of black carbon (BC) containing particles). These field observations occurred in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory in summer 2022 during the TRACER intensive operating period. The instrumentation we co-deployed provided for measurement of (i) multi-wavelength dry aerosol absorption, scattering, and extinction, (ii) the size-dependent composition and abundance of sub-micron aerosol, differentiating between those particles that do and do not contain BC, (iii) BC-specific concentrations and size distributions, (iv) particle size, and (v) the first field measurements at an ARM site of the influence of RH on multi-wavelength absorption by ambient AA. We have leveraged the natural variability of the atmosphere and of aerosol sources in the Houston region to (i) specifically disentangle contributions to light absorption from BC, absorbing organic carbon (brown carbon), and coatings on BC, (ii) characterize the mixing state of BC and assess the factors that give rise to compositional differences between BC-containing and BC-free aerosol, and (iii) establish how water uptake influences absorption and how any such effect depends on particle composition and BC mixing state. Overall, our study contributed to the mission of the Atmospheric System Research program in multiple ways. Through the deployment of complementary, advanced instrumentation for characterization of a wide range of aerosol properties our work helped to maximize the scientific impact of the TRACER campaign. Our work also allowed for development of new insights into the relationship(s) between aerosol composition, hygroscopicity, and the mixing state of BC with aerosol optical properties. Through this, our work has provided knowledge that can improve understanding and model representation of aerosol processes as they affect the Earth’s radiation budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land use and turbine technology influences on wind potential in the United States

As clean energy ambitions have expanded, critically evaluating renewable energy supply has become increasingly important to the energy research community and stakeholders. This study examines the onshore wind resource potential for the conterminous United States and its sensitivity to siting constraints and turbine technology innovation. We compile localized regulatory information and use high-resolution data to present multiple siting regimes covering relatively constrained to unconstrained potentials. Our efforts reveal high sensitivity to these variables and sizable uncertainty in the overall wind energy resource potential. Specifically, we find that siting constraints may shift the total capacity available to commercial wind energy by 2.3–15.1 TW. Furthermore, our results illustrate that technology advancement could require larger setbacks from buildings and infrastructure, reducing the total available capacity potential by 20% relative to estimates using current technology, but that this reduction is largely offset by increased generation such that the net effect on generation is 1%. The observed sensitivity to and uncertainty resulting from the variables we analyze suggest there is value in continued study and development of increasingly sophisticated approaches to characterizing wind resource potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deep Gaussian process-based cost-aware batch Bayesian optimization for complex materials design campaigns

The accelerating pace and expanding scope of materials discovery demand optimization frameworks that efficiently navigate vast design spaces with complex response surfaces while judiciously allocating limited evaluation resources. We present a cost-aware, batch Bayesian optimization scheme powered by deep Gaussian process (DGP) surrogates and a heterotopic querying strategy. Our DGP surrogate, formed by stacking GP layers, models complex hierarchical relationships among high-dimensional compositional features and captures correlations across multiple target properties, propagating uncertainty through successive layers. We integrate evaluation cost into an upper-confidence-bound acquisition extension, which, together with heterotopic querying, proposes small batches of candidates in parallel, balancing exploration of under-characterized regions with exploitation of high-mean, low-variance predictions across correlated properties. Applied to refractory high-entropy alloys for high-temperature applications, our framework converges to optimal formulations in fewer iterations with cost-aware queries than conventional GP-based BO, highlighting the value of deep, uncertainty-aware, cost-sensitive strategies in materials campaigns.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Calibration of energy density functionals with deformed nuclei

Nuclear density functional theory is the prevalent theoretical framework for accurately describing nuclear properties at the scale of the entire chart of nuclides. Given an energy functional and a many-body scheme (e.g., single- or multireference level), the predictive power of the theory depends strongly on how the parameters of the energy functionals have been calibrated with experimental data. Expanded algorithms and computing power have enabled recent optimization protocols to include data in deformed nuclei in order to optimize the coupling constants of the energy functional. The primary motivation of this work is to test the robustness of such protocols with respect to some of the technical and numerical details of the underlying calculations, especially when the calibration explores a large parameter space. To this end, we quantify the effect of these uncertainties on both the optimization and statistical emulation of composite objective functions. We also emphasize that Bayesian calibration can provide better estimates of the theoretical errors used to define objective functions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗