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At least 163 records · Page 9

Searching for the Beginning of the Ozone Turnaround Using a 22-Year Merged Satellite Data Set

We have used the data from six satellite instruments that measure the total column amount of ozone to construct a consistent merged data set extending from late 1978 into 2000. The keys to constructing a merged data set are to minimize potential drift of individual instruments and to accurately establish instrument-to-instrument offsets. We have used the short-wavelength D-pair measurements (306nm-313nm) of the SBUV and SBUV/2 instruments near the equator to establish a relatively drift-free record for these instruments. We have then used their overlap with the Nimbus 7 and EP TOMS instruments to establish the relative calibration of the various instruments. We have evaluated the drift uncertainty in our merged ozone data (MOD) set by examining both the individual instrument drift uncertainty and the uncertainty in establishing the instrument- to-instrument differences. We conclude that the instrumental drift uncertainty over the 22-year data record is 0.9 %/decade (2-sigma). We have compared our MOD record with 37 ground stations that have a continuous record over that time period. We have a mean drift with respect to the stations of +0.3 %/decade which is within 1-sigma of our uncertainty estimate. Using the satellite record as a transfer standard, we can estimate the capability of the ground instruments to establish satellite calibration. Adding the statistical variability of the station drifts with respect to the satellite to an estimate of the overall drift uncertainty of the world standard instrument, we conclude that the stations should be able to be used to establish the drift of the satellite data record to within and uncertainty of 0.6 %/decade (2-sigma). Adding to this an uncertainty due to the-incomplete global coverage of the stations, we conclude that the station data should be able to establish the global trend with an uncertainty of about 0.7 %/decade, slightly better than for the satellite record. We conclude that merging the two records together gives only a slight improvement in the uncertainty. Keeping them separate gives the greater confidence of two independent measures of the ozone trend and potential recovery. We fit the trend in our MOD record through May of 1991 and then extrapolated forward to see if the data at the end of the record was above the statistical model as a measure of ozone recovery as was done in the last WMO/UNEP assessment report. Because our data set drifts with respect to the ground-stations through May of 1991, we calculated a smaller global trend (-1.1 %/decade) than in the WMO/UNEP report. Our data in 1998 and 1999 was, on average 2 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 6 DU. For the combined mid-latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres, the data was 5 DU above the extrapolated statistical model with a 2-sigma uncertainty of 10 DU. These may be signs of recovery, but they are still statistically insignificant.

Stolarski, Richard S.

The Atomization Energy of Mg4

The atomization energy of Mg4 is determined using the MP2 and CCSD(T) levels of theory. Basis set incompleteness, basis set extrapolation, and core-valence effects are discussed. Our best atomization energy, including the zero-point energy and scalar relativistic effects, is 24.6+/-1.6 kcal per mol. Our computed and extrapolated values are compared with previous results, where it is observed that our extrapolated MP2 value is good agreement with the MP2-R12 value. The CCSD(T) and MP2 core effects are found to have the opposite signs.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.

TiCl, TiH and TiH+ Bond Energies, a Test of a Correlation Consistent Ti Basis Set

Correlation consistent basis sets are developed for Ti atom. The polarization functions are optimized for the average of the 3F and 5F states. One series of correlation consistent basis sets is for 3d and 4s correlation, while the second series includes 3s and 3p correlation as well as 3d and 4s correlation. These basis sets are tested using the Ti 3F-5F separation and the dissociation energies of TiCl X4Phi, TiH X4Phi, and TiH(+) X3Phi. The CCSD(T) complete basis set limit values are determined by extrapolation. The Douglas Kroll approach is used to compute the scalar relativistic effect. Spin-orbit effects are taken from experiment and/or computed at the CASSCF level. The Ti 3F-5F separation is in excellent agreement with experiment, while the TiCl, TiH, and TiH(+) bond energies are in good agreement with experiment. Extrapolation with the valence basis set is consistent with other atoms, while including 3s and 3p correlation appears to make extrapolation.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.

Scientific Objectives of the Critical Viscosity Experiment

In microgravity, the Critical Viscosity Experiment will measure the viscosity of xenon 15 times closer to the critical point than is possible on earth. The results are expected to include the first direct observation of the predicted power-law divergence of viscosity in a pure fluid and they will test calculations of the value of the exponent associated with the divergence. The results, when combined with Zeno's decay-rate data, will strengthen the test of mode coupling theory. Without microgravity viscosity data, the Zeno test will require an extrapolation of existing 1-g viscosity data by as much as factor of 100 in reduced temperature. By necessity, the extrapolation would use an incompletely verified theory of viscosity crossover. With the microgravity viscosity data, the reliance on crossover models will be negligible allowing a more reliable extrapolation. During the past year, new theoretical calculations for the viscosity exponent finally achieved consistency with the best experimental data for pure fluids. This report gives the justification for the proposed microgravity Critical Viscosity Experiment in this new context. This report also combines for the first time the best available light scattering data with our recent viscosity data to demonstrate the current status of tests of mode coupling theory.

Berg, R. F.

Reduction and Analysis of Phosphor Thermography Data With the IHEAT Software Package

Detailed aeroheating information is critical to the successful design of a thermal protection system (TPS) for an aerospace vehicle. This report describes NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC) two-color relative-intensity phosphor thermography method and the IHEAT software package which is used for the efficient data reduction and analysis of the phosphor image data. Development of theory is provided for a new weighted two-color relative-intensity fluorescence theory for quantitatively determining surface temperatures on hypersonic wind tunnel models; an improved application of the one-dimensional conduction theory for use in determining global heating mappings; and extrapolation of wind tunnel data to flight surface temperatures. The phosphor methodology at LaRC is presented including descriptions of phosphor model fabrication, test facilities and phosphor video acquisition systems. A discussion of the calibration procedures, data reduction and data analysis is given. Estimates of the total uncertainties (with a 95% confidence level) associated with the phosphor technique are shown to be approximately 8 to 10 percent in the Langley's 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel and 7 to 10 percent in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel. A comparison with thin-film measurements using two-inch radius hemispheres shows the phosphor data to be within 7 percent of thin-film measurements and to agree even better with predictions via a LATCH computational fluid dynamics solution (CFD). Good agreement between phosphor data and LAURA CFD computations on the forebody of a vertical takeoff/vertical lander configuration at four angles of attack is also shown. In addition, a comparison is given between Mach 6 phosphor data and laminar and turbulent solutions generated using the LAURA, GASP and LATCH CFD codes. Finally, the extrapolation method developed in this report is applied to the X-34 configuration with good agreement between the phosphor extrapolation and LAURA flight surface temperature predictions. The phosphor process outlined in the paper is believed to provide the aerothermodynamic community with a valuable capability for rapidly obtaining (4 to 5 weeks) detailed heating information needed in TPS design.

Merski, N. Ronald

Implications for Core Formation of the Earth from High Pressure-Temperature Au Partitioning Experiments

Siderophile elements in the Earth.s mantle are depleted relative to chondrites. This is most pronounced for the highly siderophile elements (HSEs), which are approximately 400x lower than chondrites. Also remarkable is the relative chondritic abundances of the HSEs. This signature has been interpreted as representing their sequestration into an iron-rich core during the separation of metal from silicate liquids early in the Earth's history, followed by a late addition of chondritic material. Alternative efforts to explain this trace element signature have centered on element partitioning experiments at varying pressures, temperatures, and compositions (P-T-X). However, first results from experiments conducted at 1 bar did not match the observed mantle abundances, which motivated the model described above, a "late veneer" of chondritic material deposited on the earth and mixed into the upper mantle. Alternatively, the mantle trace element signature could be the result of equilibrium partitioning between metal and silicate in the deep mantle, under P-T-X conditions which are not yet completely identified. An earlier model determined that equilibrium between metal and silicate liquids could occur at a depth of approximately 700 km, 27(plus or minus 6) GPa and approximately 2000 (plus or minus 200) C, based on an extrapolation of partitioning data for a variety of moderately siderophile elements obtained at lower pressures and temperatures. Based on Ni-Co partitioning, the magma ocean may have been as deep as 1450 km. At present, only a small range of possible P-T-X trace element partitioning conditions has been explored, necessitating large extrapolations from experimental to mantle conditions for tests of equilibrium models. Our primary objective was to reduce or remove the additional uncertainty introduced by extrapolation by testing the equilibrium core formation hypothesis at P-T-X conditions appropriate to the mantle.

Danielson, L. R.

Apparent-Strain Correction for Combined Thermal and Mechanical Testing

Combined thermal and mechanical testing requires that the total strain be corrected for the coefficient of thermal expansion mismatch between the strain gage and the specimen or apparent strain when the temperature varies while a mechanical load is being applied. Collecting data for an apparent strain test becomes problematic as the specimen size increases. If the test specimen cannot be placed in a variable temperature test chamber to generate apparent strain data with no mechanical loads, coupons can be used to generate the required data. The coupons, however, must have the same strain gage type, coefficient of thermal expansion, and constraints as the specimen to be useful. Obtaining apparent-strain data at temperatures lower than -320 F is challenging due to the difficulty to maintain steady-state and uniform temperatures on a given specimen. Equations to correct for apparent strain in a real-time fashion and data from apparent-strain tests for composite and metallic specimens over a temperature range from -450 F to +250 F are presented in this paper. Three approaches to extrapolate apparent-strain data from -320 F to -430 F are presented and compared to the measured apparent-strain data. The first two approaches use a subset of the apparent-strain curves between -320 F and 100 F to extrapolate to -430 F, while the third approach extrapolates the apparent-strain curve over the temperature range of -320 F to +250 F to -430 F. The first two approaches are superior to the third approach but the use of either of the first two approaches is contingent upon the degree of non-linearity of the apparent-strain curve.

Johnson, Theodore F.

Measurement and Characterization of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor Plume Acoustics

Lift-off acoustic environments generated by the future Ares I launch vehicle are assessed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) acoustics team using several prediction tools. This acoustic environment is directly caused by the Ares I First Stage booster, powered by the five-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRMV). The RSRMV is a larger-thrust derivative design from the currently used Space Shuttle solid rocket motor, the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Lift-off acoustics is an integral part of the composite launch vibration environment affecting the Ares launch vehicle and must be assessed to help generate hardware qualification levels and ensure structural integrity of the vehicle during launch and lift-off. Available prediction tools that use free field noise source spectrums as a starting point for generation of lift-off acoustic environments are described in the monograph NASA SP-8072: "Acoustic Loads Generated by the Propulsion System." This monograph uses a reference database for free field noise source spectrums which consist of subscale rocket motor firings, oriented in horizontal static configurations. The phrase "subscale" is appropriate, since the thrust levels of rockets in the reference database are orders of magnitude lower than the current design thrust for the Ares launch family. Thus, extrapolation is needed to extend the various reference curves to match Ares-scale acoustic levels. This extrapolation process yields a subsequent amount of uncertainty added upon the acoustic environment predictions. As the Ares launch vehicle design schedule progresses, it is important to take every opportunity to lower prediction uncertainty and subsequently increase prediction accuracy. Never before in NASA s history has plume acoustics been measured for large scale solid rocket motors. Approximately twice a year, the RSRM prime vendor, ATK Launch Systems, static fires an assembled RSRM motor in a horizontal configuration at their test facility in Utah. The remaining RSRM static firings will take place on elevated terrain, with the nozzle exit plume being mostly undeflected and the landscape allowing placement of microphones within direct line of sight to the exhaust plume. These measurements will help assess the current extrapolation process by direct comparison between subscale and full scale solid rocket motor data.

Kenny, Jeremy

Lessons Learned from Assimilating Altimeter Data into a Coupled General Circulation Model with the GMAO Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter

Satellite altimetry measurements have provided global, evenly distributed observations of the ocean surface since 1993. However, the difficulties introduced by the presence of model biases and the requirement that data assimilation systems extrapolate the sea surface height (SSH) information to the subsurface in order to estimate the temperature, salinity and currents make it difficult to optimally exploit these measurements. This talk investigates the potential of the altimetry data assimilation once the biases are accounted for with an ad hoc bias estimation scheme. Either steady-state or state-dependent multivariate background-error covariances from an ensemble of model integrations are used to address the problem of extrapolating the information to the sub-surface. The GMAO ocean data assimilation system applied to an ensemble of coupled model instances using the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 is used in the investigation. To model the background error covariances, the system relies on a hybrid ensemble approach in which a small number of dynamically evolved model trajectories is augmented on the one hand with past instances of the state vector along each trajectory and, on the other, with a steady state ensemble of error estimates from a time series of short-term model forecasts. A state-dependent adaptive error-covariance localization and inflation algorithm controls how the SSH information is extrapolated to the sub-surface. A two-step predictor corrector approach is used to assimilate future information. Independent (not-assimilated) temperature and salinity observations from Argo floats are used to validate the assimilation. A two-step projection method in which the system first calculates a SSH increment and then projects this increment vertically onto the temperature, salt and current fields is found to be most effective in reconstructing the sub-surface information. The performance of the system in reconstructing the sub-surface fields is particularly impressive for temperature, but not as satisfactory for salt.

Keppenne, Christian

3D Hail Size Distribution Interpolation/Extrapolation Algorithm

Radar data can usually detect hail; however, it is difficult for present day radar to accurately discriminate between hail and rain. Local ground-based hail sensors are much better at detecting hail against a rain background, and when incorporated with radar data, provide a much better local picture of a severe rain or hail event. The previous disdrometer interpolation/ extrapolation algorithm described a method to interpolate horizontally between multiple ground sensors (a minimum of three) and extrapolate vertically. This work is a modification to that approach that generates a purely extrapolated 3D spatial distribution when using a single sensor.

Lane, John

Impairment of Human Ocular Tracking with Low-Dose Alcohol

Previous studies have documented adverse effects of alcohol on oculomotor performance. For example, moderate-dose alcohol (yielding a Blood Alcohol Concentration or BAC of 0.04-0.1%) has been shown to decrease steady-state pursuit gain (Fransson et al., 2010, Clin Neurophysiol, 121(12): 2134; Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), to increase saccade latency (Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), to decrease peak saccadic velocity (Fransson et al., 2010, Clin Neurophysiol, 121(12): 2134; Roche & King, 2010, Psychopharmacology, 212(1): 33), and to increase the frequency of catch-up saccades (Moser et al., 1998, J Neurol, 245(8): 542). Here, we administered two doses of ethanol on different days, yielding moderate (0.06%) and low (0.02%) levels of initial BAC, to examine the effects on human ocular tracking over BACs ranging from 0.00 to 0.07%. Twelve subjects (8 females) participated in a 5-day study. Three days of at-home measurements of daily activity and sleep were monitored, followed by two laboratory days where, ~5 hours after awakening, we administered one of the two possible single doses of alcohol. Using a previously published paradigm (Liston & Stone, 2014, J Vis, 14(14): 12), we measured oculomotor performance multiple times throughout the day with three pre-dosing baseline runs and bi-hourly post-dosing test runs until the subject recorded a BAC of 0.00% for two hours. BAC was measured before each run using an Alco-Sensor IV breathalyzer (Intoximeters, Inc., St. Louis, MO). For each of the oculometric measures, for each subject, we computed the within-subject % deviation for each test run from their baseline averaged across their three pre-dosing runs. We then averaged the data across subjects in 0.01% BAC bins. Finally, we used linear regression to compute the slope and x-intercept (threshold) of the mean binned % deviation as a function of BAC. We found that pursuit initiation was impaired at very low BAC levels, with significant (p < 0.002) linear trends in latency (+1.3%/0.01%BAC) and initial acceleration (-4.6%/0.01%BAC) with extrapolated absolute thresholds at or below 0.01% BAC. We also found that steady-state tracking was impaired showing significant (p < 0.002) linear trends in gain (- 3.8%/0.01%BAC) and catch-up saccade amplitude (+9.1%/0.01%BAC), again with extrapolated absolute thresholds around 0.01% BAC. We also found a significant (p < 0.02) increase in pursuit direction noise (+9.8%/0.01%BAC) with an extrapolated absolute threshold below 0.01% BAC. Many aspects of ocular tracking are impaired in a dose-dependent manner beginning at a BAC level around 0.01%, with significant effects at levels lower than previously reported and up to 8-times lower than the legal limit for driving in most states.

human performance

Improved Ephemerides of Pluto

The history of the Pluto ephemerides created at JPL is given. The uncertainties of present and possible future ephemerides are illustrated, and it is shown how rapidly the error grows for any present-day ephemeris of Pluto which is extrapolated into the future - tens of thousands of kilometers after only a decade. Continuing the observations into the future will not only reduce the extrapolation time but time will provide a substantial improvement to the ephemeris itself.

ephemerides

Relationship Between Magnitude of Applied Spin Recovery Moment and Ensuing Number of Recovery Turns

An analytical study has been made to investigate the relationship between the magnitude of the applied spin recovery moment and the ensuing number of turns made during recovery from a developed spin with a view toward determining how to interpolate or extrapolate spin recovery results with regard to determining the amount of control required for a satisfactory recovery. Five configurations were used which are considered to be representative of modern airplanes: a delta-wing fighter, a stub-wing research vehicle, a boostglide configuration, a supersonic trainer, and a sweptback-wing fighter. The results obtained indicate that there is a direct relationship between the magnitude of the applied spin recovery moments and the ensuing number of recovery turns made and that this relationship can be expressed in either simple multiplicative or exponential form. Either type of relationship was adequate for interpolating or extrapolating to predict turns required for recovery with satisfactory accuracy for configurations having relatively steady recovery motions. Any two recoveries from the same developed spin condition can be used as a basis for the predicted results provided these recoveries are obtained with the same ratio of recovery control deflections. No such predictive method can be expected to give satisfactory results for oscillatory recoveries.

SPIN DYNAMICS

Soot oxidation rates in gas turbine engines

A basis is proposed for extrapolating soot oxidation rate measurements obtained in laboratory flames to the more extreme operating conditions of gas turbine combustion chambers. The proposal is based on the observation that, within probable experimental uncertainty, the limited soot oxidation measurements correlate with the more extensive measurements of the surface oxidation rates of macroscopic samples of pyrographite. The soot oxidation rates thus determined for the conditions of a typical gas turbine combustion chamber are considerably lower than estimates which were based on simple extrapolations of the flame data.

Radcliffe, S. W.

The lithium-like spectra of K XVII through Mn XXIII in the extreme-ultraviolet region.

Identifications and classifications of spectral lines in the lithium-like spectra of the elements K through Mn is presented for the first time. The extrapolation procedures used to calculate these spectra are presented in detail. The excellent agreement between the predicted and measured lines establish the long-range extrapolation.

Goldsmith, S.

Hill-climbing controller for plants with any dynamics and rapid drifts.

Description of extremal control systems which utilize extrapolation procedures to optimize plant operations or processes involving any kind of dynamics before and after the static extremal characteristic. The optimization sequence starts with an 'action of drift detection' - i.e., a measurement of the drift rate of the output. Then a 'search action' is initiated which consists of stepped shifts of the input variable; the output response due to these changes in the input variable is evaluated in the light of the predicted shift and is used to provide information on the shape of the extremal characteristic at the actual operating point. The position of the extremum is estimated by a parabolic extrapolation of the shape of the characteristic from the operating point to the extremum. During the 'control action' the operating point is adjusted to the position corresponding to the predicted optimum of the process by first applying a forcing step to the input variable to obtain a quicker response at the beginning of the transient state, and then applying a definitive step to bring the input variable back to the position which corresponds to the predicted extremum. A 'rest time' may be introduced before starting the next optimization sequence.

Jacob, H. G.

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

Hunter, H. E.