Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “extreme scenario generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Drought shifts dissolved organic matter sources from above- to belowground and stress-induced processes in Amazon white-sand forests

White-sand forests contribute significantly to dissolved organic matter (DOM) production in the central Amazon, forming blackwater rivers that dominate organic matter export from the Amazon basin to the ocean. Despite their importance in controlling DOM export, white-sand forests are understudied, and it remains unclear whether systematic changes in the formation of blackwater DOM occur and how seasonal variations and extremes like El Niño-associated droughts impact them. We collected soil porewater from two central Amazon white-sand forests for two years, spanning a wet La Niña year followed by an El Niño drought year. The molecular composition of DOM was analyzed using high-resolution mass spectrometry, and correlation network analysis was employed to identify ecologically meaningful DOM subsets. Using additional chemical characterization, database annotations, correlation with 14C-age of DOM and climatic variables, and ecological null modeling, we propose five distinct DOM sources: plant litter and throughfall, soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition, root exudation, and two drought response subsets of likely microbial and plant origin. During drought conditions, aboveground plant-derived compounds decreased, while SOM products, root exudates, and drought response compounds increased. These drought responses were qualitatively similar in both years but notably amplified in the drier El Niño year. Drought amplified deterministic control over DOM composition, indicating that DOM reflected directed biological responses and that future droughts are likely to generate similar shifts. Overall, drought substantially altered belowground carbon cycling by shifting DOM sources and inducing stress responses, effects expected to recur and potentially intensify under future climate scenarios.

Lange, Dan F.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Designing the PR100 Study: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phaseout of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040 as established in Act 17. [1] To meet these goals and support widespread end-use electrification, the territory must explore how renewable energy and other generation technologies can be developed with energy storage, distributed generation, distribution control, electric vehicles, and energy efficient and responsive loads in each of Puerto Rico's cities and communities. To support Puerto Rico in reaching its renewable energy goals; help ensure energy system resilience against future extreme weather events; improve energy justice; and provide inputs to LUMA Energy's walk, jog, and run approach in its coordinated planning roadmap, the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories propose to evaluate 100% renewable energy pathways through an integrated analysis process. This talk will present steps in designing a two-year study entitled Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy (PR100). [1] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2020. Puerto Rico Territory Energy Profile.

100% renewable energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Covey, C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Developing Scenario‐Based Strategies for Health, Climate, and Environmental Preparedness: The One Health, One Earth Approach

Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.

Abadi, Azar M. [University of Alabama, Birmingham,↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Thermal Response in a Li-ion Cell on a UAV Fight Profile

As the energy storage devices continue to "pack" more energy in a small space, any damage, battery component failure, manufacturing defect, or electrically abusing the battery can lead to catastrophic thermal runaway events. A catastrophic thermal event in a cell leads to high temperature, in some instances spewing of battery materials due to gas development from side reactions initiated due to high internal temperatures. Also, a thermal runaway event can propagate from a single "failed" cell to the pack in a battery pack, leading to a more significant event. Mitigating a thermal runaway event is important in the commercial and automotive sectors. However, preventing such events in an electric aircraft (or air taxis) is paramount due to the lack of alternatives in the event of a failure. Battery prognostics algorithms allow the prediction of state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) of a Li-ion battery in a UAV (unmanned air vehicle) [1]. For this presentation, we will extend this two-level battery predictive algorithm to predict SOC, EOL, and estimated maximum temperature during a simulated flight. The model is extended by integrating a lumped physics-driven thermal model for high current densities [2]. The parameters used to control SOC and EOL are maximum storable charge, time constant for Li-ion diffusivity in the carbon particles, and internal cell resistance. Cycling leads to an increase in the heat generated by an aged Li-ion cell with a LiyCoO2 (LCO) cathode and a LixC6 (MCMB) anode. The aging of a cell leads to increase in SEI layer thickness, the diffusion time for the lithium ions inside the electrodes, and the local reaction rates, in addition to the thermodynamic abuse caused by fixed cycling voltages controlled by a Battery Management System. As the battery ages, the cell resistance increases, while the onset temperature of the thermal runaway decreases (depends on the cell chemistry and cell abuse history). Any large deviation of the cell temperature from the estimated (expected) value can identify a faulty cell. Since SEI decomposition has the lowest onset temperature in the series of reactions leading to thermal runaway, the model considers the self-heating rate of the SEI decomposition as onset temperature (similar to Ref. [3]). The parameters in the Arrhenius equation for the SEI heating rate depend on the number of cycles, the cell's operating temperature, and the cell's abuse history [4,5]. Coupling the electrochemical, thermal, and aging model allow the prognostic algorithm to estimate a typical cell voltage and temperature as a function of age (cycling and calendar), whose departure from measured values from the BMS is used to identify a safety event. In addition, we will present the results from two simulated flight scenarios for a UAV: typical and extreme, since the power requirements vary significantly during take-off, landing, and changing altitudes, while the power requirements remain low during the cruise. For this presentation, the power requirement for a battery pack in a UAV is scaled to a single cell. This cell is cycled through a simulated profile, and the data is collected and used to predict a safety event.

Li-ion↗
NASA NTRS1992

First lunar outpost

Design and research efforts at the University of Puerto Rico have focused on the evaluation and refinement of the Habitability Criteria for a prolonged human presence in space during the last four years. Living quarters for a Mars mission and a third generation lunar base concept were proposed. This academic year, 1991-92, work on further refinement of the habitability criteria and design of partial gravity furniture was carried on. During the first semester, design alternatives for furniture necessary in a habitat design optimized for lunar and Martian environments were developed. Designs are based on recent research data from lunar and Mars gravity simulations, and current NASA standards. Artifacts will be submitted to NASA architects to be tested in KC-135 flights. Test findings will be submitted for incorporation in future updates to NASA habitat design standards. Second semester work was aimed at integrating these findings into the First Lunar Outpost (FLO), a mission scenario currently being considered by NASA. The mission consists of a manned return to the moon by crews of four astronauts for periods of 45 days. The major hardware components of the mission are as follows: (1) a Crew Module for the delivery of the crew and their supplies, and (2) the Habitat Module, which will arrive on the Moon unmanned. Our design efforts concentrated on this Habitat Module and on application of habitability criteria. Different geometries for the pressure vessel and their impact on the interior architecture were studied. Upon the selection of a geometry, a more detailed analysis of the interior design was performed, taking into consideration the reduced gravity, and the protection against radiation, micrometeorites, and the extreme temperature variation. A proposal for a FLO was submitted by the students, consisting essentially of a 24-feet (7.3 m.) by 35-feet (10.67 m) high vertical cylinder with work areas, crew quarters, galley, wardroom, leisure facilities, health maintenance, waste management, EVA operations facilities, and safe havens.

Andino, Aureo F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗
NASA NTRS2007

Interactions with Virtual People: Do Avatars Dream of Digital Sheep?

This paper explores another form of artificial entity, ones without physical embodiment. We refer to virtual characters as the name for a type of interactive object that have become familiar in computer games and within virtual reality applications. We refer to these as avatars: three-dimensional graphical objects that are in more-or-less human form which can interact with humans. Sometimes such avatars will be representations of real-humans who are interacting together within a shared networked virtual environment, other times the representations will be of entirely computer generated characters. Unlike other authors, who reserve the term agent for entirely computer generated characters and avatars for virtual embodiments of real people; the same term here is used for both. This is because avatars and agents are on a continuum. The question is where does their behaviour originate? At the extremes the behaviour is either completely computer generated or comes only from tracking of a real person. However, not every aspect of a real person can be tracked every eyebrow move, every blink, every breath rather real tracking data would be supplemented by inferred behaviours which are programmed based on the available information as to what the real human is doing and her/his underlying emotional and psychological state. Hence there is always some programmed behaviour it is only a matter of how much. In any case the same underlying problem remains how can the human character be portrayed in such a manner that its actions are believable and have an impact on the real people with whom it interacts? This paper has three main parts. In the first part we will review some evidence that suggests that humans react with appropriate affect in their interactions with virtual human characters, or with other humans who are represented as avatars. This is so in spite of the fact that the representational fidelity is relatively low. Our evidence will be from the realm of psychotherapy, where virtual social situations are created that do test whether people react appropriately within these situations. We will also consider some experiments on face-to-face virtual communications between people in the same shared virtual environments. The second part will try to give some clues about why this might happen, taking into account modern theories of perception from neuroscience. The third part will include some speculations about the future developments of the relationship between people and virtual people. We will suggest that a more likely scenario than the world becoming populated by physically embodied virtual people (robots, androids) is that in the relatively near future we will interact more and more in our everyday lives with virtual people- bank managers, shop assistants, instructors, and so on. What is happening in the movies with computer graphic generated individuals and entire crowds may move into the space of everyday life.

Slater, Mel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗
DOE OSTI2026

CLM5 Simulations of Soil Moisture and Gross Primary Productivity for CONUS at 0.125 degrees

This dataset provides 0.125-degree gridded simulations of soil moisture and gross primary productivity (GPP) for the Contiguous United States (CONUS), generated using the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) with the biogeochemistry module enabled. The data covers a historical baseline (1980-2015) and mid-century future projections (2020-2055). Future projections are organized into two sets of scenarios to distinguish the impacts of different drivers: (1) Atmospheric Only (ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcings while holding land use and land cover (LULC) at historical baseline levels. The atmospheric forcings represent moderately versus severely hotter/drier atmospheric conditions (dynamically downscaled perturbed thermodynamics simulations based on CMIP6 SSP245 and SSP585 warming signals), each with cooler versus hotter Earth System Model temperature sensitivity instantiations. These scenarios are identified in the folder names as rcp45_cooler_near, rcp45_hotter_near, rcp85_cooler_near, and rcp85_hotter_near. (2) Coupled Atmospheric and Land-Use (LAND+ATM): These scenarios apply future atmospheric forcing together with future LULC by pairing atmospheric pathways with lower versus higher population/economic growth scenarios representing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5 (SSP3 and SSP5). These scenarios are identified in the file names as ssp3_rcp45_cooler_near, ssp3_rcp45_hotter_near, ssp5_rcp85_cooler_near, and ssp5_rcp85_hotter_near. Please refer to the "README_first.md" file for detailed information on file structure, variables, units, and data formats.

drought↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comparative Magma Oceanography

The question of whether the Earth ever passed through a magma ocean stage is of considerable interest. Geochemical evidence strongly suggests that the Moon had a magma ocean and the evidence is mounting that the same was true for Mars. Analyses of martian (SNC) meteorites have yielded insights into the differentiation history of Mars, and consequently, it is interesting to compare that planet to the Earth. Three primary features of Mars contrast strongly to those of the Earth: (i) the extremely ancient ages of the martian core, mantle, and crust (about 4.55 b.y.); (ii) the highly depleted nature of the martian mantle; and (iii) the extreme ranges of Nd isotopic compositions that arise within the crust and depleted mantle. The easiest way to explain the ages and diverse isotopic compositions of martian basalts is to postulate that Mars had an early magma ocean. Cumulates of this magma ocean were later remelted to form the SNC meteorite suite and some of these melts assimilated crustal materials enriched in incompatible elements. The REE pattern of the crust assimilated by these SNC magmas was LREE enriched. If this pattern is typical of the crust as a whole, the martian crust is probably similar in composition to melts generated by small degrees of partial melting (about 5%) of a primitive source. Higher degrees of partial melting would cause the crustal LREE pattern to be essentially flat. In the context of a magma ocean model, where large degrees of partial melting presumably prevailed, the crust would have to be dominated by late-stage, LREE-enriched residual liquids. Regardless of the exact physical setting, Nd and W isotopic evidence indicates that martian geochemical reservoirs must have formed early and that they have not been efficiently remixed since. The important point is that in both the Moon and Mars we see evidence of a magma ocean phase and that we recognize it as such. Several lines of theoretical inference point to an early Earth that was also hot and, perhaps, mostly molten. The Giant Impact hypothesis for the origin of the Moon offers a tremendous input of thermal energy and the same could be true for core formation. And current solar system models favor the formation of a limited number of large (about 1000 km) planetesimals that, upon accreting to Earth, would cause great heating, being lesser versions of the Giant Impact. Several lines of geochemical evidence do not favor this hot early Earth scenario. (i) Terrestrial man-tle xenoliths are sometimes nearly chondritic in their major element compositions, suggesting that these rocks have never been much molten. Large degrees of partial melting probably promote differentiation rather than homogenization. (ii) Unlike the case of Mars, the continental crust probably did not form as a highly fractionated residual liquid from a magma ocean (about 99% crystallization), but, rather, formed in multiple steps. [The simplest model for the formation of continental crust is complicated: (a) about 10% melting of a primitive mantle, making basalt; (b) hydrothermal alteration of that basalt, converting it to greenstone; and (c) 10% partial melting of that greenstone, producing tonalite.] This model is reinforced by the recent observation from old (about 4.1 b.y.) zircons that the early crust formed from an undepleted mantle having a chondritic Lu/Hf ratio. (iii) If the mantle were once differentiated by a magma ocean, the mantle xenolith suite requires that it subsequently be homogenized. The Os isotopic compositions of fertile spinel lherzolites place constraints on the timing of that homogenization. The Os isotopic composition of spinel lherzolites approaches that of chondrites and correlates with elements such as Lu and Al. As Lu and Al concentrations approach those of the primitive mantle, Os isotopic compositions approach chondritic. The Re and Os in these xenoliths were probably added as a late veneer. Thus, the mantle that received the late veneer must have been nearly chondritic in terms of its major elements (excluding Fe). If the mantle that the veneer was mixed into was not al-ready homogenized, then Os isotopes should not correlate with incompatible elements such as Al. Consequently, either early differentiation of the mantle did not occur or the homogenization of this differentiation must have occurred before the late veneer was added. The timing of the late veneer is itself uncertain but presumably postdated core formation at about 4.45 b.y. and did not postdate the 3.8-3.9 b.y. late bombardment of the Moon. This timing based on siderophile elements is consistent with the Hf isotopic evidence cited above. If the Earth, Moon and Mars had magma oceans, the Earth subsequently rehomogenized whereas the Moon and Mars did not. The simplest solution to this observation is that homogenization of igneous differentiates was never necessary on Earth, either because the hypothetical magma ocean never occurred or because this event did not produce mantle differentiation.

Jones, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Distribution System Resilience: A First-Order Meta-RL Algorithm for Critical Load Restoration

The increasing frequency of extreme events and the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into modern grids have elevated the need for resilient and efficient critical load restoration strategies in distribution systems. However, the stochastic nature of renewable DERs, limited energy resource availability and the intricate nonlinearities inherent in complex grid control problem make the problem challenging. Although reinforcement learning (RL) and warm-start RL methods have shown promising results, their performance often falls short in rapidly adapting to new, unseen situations and typically requires exhaustive problem-specific tuning. To address these gaps, we propose a First-Order Meta-based RL (FOM-RL) algorithm within an online framework for adaptive and robust critical load restoration. By harnessing local DERs as the enabling technology, FOM-RL allows the RL agent to swiftly adapt to new unseen scenarios by leveraging previously acquired knowledge of different tasks. Experimental results provide evidence that proposed algorithm learns more efficiently and showcases generalization capabilities across diverse set of operational scenarios. Moreover, a rigorous theoretical analysis yields a tight sublinear regret bound, sensitive to temporal variability, with a task-averaged optimality gap bounded by O(VM+D*/(Tsquare root(M))). These results suggest that optimality improves with task similarity and an increased number of tasks M, reaffirming the efficacy and scalability of the proposed approach in addressing the complexities of critical load restoration in distribution systems.

complexity theory↗
NASA NTRS2017

In-Flight Guidance, Navigation, and Control Performance Results for the GOES-16 Spacecraft

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R), which launched in November 2016, is the first of the next generation geostationary weather satellites. GOES-R provides 4 times the resolution, 5 times the observation rate, and 3 times the number of spectral bands for Earth observations compared with its predecessor spacecraft. Additionally, Earth relative and Sun-relative pointing and pointing stability requirements are maintained throughout reaction wheel desaturation events and station keeping activities, allowing GOES-R to provide continuous Earth and sun observations. This paper reviews the pointing control, pointing stability, attitude knowledge, and orbit knowledge requirements necessary to realize the ambitious Image Navigation and Registration (INR) objectives of GOES-R. This paper presents a comparison between low-frequency on-orbit pointing results and simulation predictions for both the Earth Pointed Platform (EPP) and Sun Pointed Platform (SPP). Results indicate excellent agreement between simulation predictions and observed on-orbit performance, and compliance with pointing performance requirements. The EPP instrument suite includes 6 seismic accelerometers sampled at 2 KHz, allowing in-flight verification of jitter responses and comparison back to simulation predictions. This paper presents flight results of acceleration, shock response spectrum (SRS), and instrument line of sight responses for various operational scenarios and instrument observation modes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the dual-isolation approach employed on GOES-R. The spacecraft provides attitude and rate data to the primary Earth-observing instrument at 100 Hz, which are used to adjust instrument scanning. The data must meet accuracy and latency numbers defined by the Integrated Rate Error (IRE) requirements. This paper discusses the on-orbit IRE results, showing compliance to these requirements with margin. During the spacecraft checkout period, IRE disturbances were observed and subsequently attributed to thermal control of the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) mounting interface. Adjustments of IMU thermal control and the resulting improvements in IRE are presented. Orbit knowledge represents the final element of INR performance. Extremely accurate orbital position is achieved by GPS navigation at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). On-orbit performance results are shown demonstrating compliance with the stringent orbit position accuracy requirements of GOES-R, including during station keeping activities and momentum desaturation events. As we show in this paper, the on-orbit performance of the GNC design provides the necessary capabilities to achieve GOES-R mission objectives.

Chapel, Jim↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pilot-Scale Testing of an Integrated Circuit for the Extraction of Rare Earth Minerals and Elements from Coal and Coal Byproducts Using Advanced Separation Technologies

The primary objective of this project was to develop and demonstrate an integrated pilot-scale circuitry for recovering high-value rare earth elements (REEs) from coal and coal byproducts. The target performance was to produce a mixed REE product with content of at least two percent by weight on a dry mass basis in a cost-effective and environmentally benign manner. During the first nine months of the project period (Phase 2 Budget Period 2), pilot plant construction was completed including all field site startup activities such as permitting, engineering design, procurement/bidding, unit fabrication, site construction, equipment installation, module assembly, safety training, and circuit shakedown. During the remaining 21 months of project period (Phase 2 Budget Period 3), detailed field-testing activities were performed including feedstock sample collection and preparation, exploratory testing, circuit modification, detailed parametric study, and performance optimization. A detailed techno-economic analysis was performed based on the pilot plant testing findings which provided various scenarios for REE production. The project successfully accomplished the proposed target performance by producing mixed rare earth oxide (REO) with greater than 90% purity by weight in a continuous pilot scale operation from two distinctly different coarse refuse materials (i.e., West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coal seams), and at least three secondary sources (i.e., heap leach process and naturally formed acid mine drainage system). Project partners included the University of Kentucky, Virginia Tech, West Virginia University, Alliance Coal, Blackhawk Mining, Mineral Refining Company, and Mineral Separation Technologies. The pilot scale test facility was constructed at a former mining complex owned by Alliance Natural Resource Partners (Alliance Coal). The site was rehabilitated to accommodate the equipment installation, construction and fabrication, electrical power requirement, water line management and containment. The process units constructed and installed included X-ray sorting unit, crushing and grinding unit, physical separation unit, acid leaching unit, solvent extraction unit, and wastewater management unit. A rare earth mineral concentration unit was constructed as a standalone unit for flexible operation. A detailed environmental assessment and control plan was carried out to identify and quantify any potential impacts of the pilot-scale processing circuitry on the human and eco-system health and well-being. Corresponding mitigation strategies and control measures were provided. A conceptual flowsheet was developed to effectively remove thorium and uranium from high purity rare earth oxide mix or any potential radionuclide enriched stream. The two distinct feedstock materials were secured from the Blackhawk Mining Complex in eastern Kentucky where the Fire Clay (Hazard No. 4) seam is processed. The West Kentucky No. 13 (Baker) coarse refuse material was collected from an active process stream at an Alliance coal preparation plant located in western Kentucky. Characterization analysis indicated that both of feed materials generated from the two sources contained >300 ppm of TREEs on a dry whole mass basis which met the requirements for a qualified feed stock. The two feedstocks were further upgraded using a dual x-ray sorter to prepare the feed material for hydrometallurgical circuit. Thermal treatment on feed material prior to leaching was found to: 1) improve the leaching recovery of REEs, 2) increase the leaching kinetics, and 3) allow the leaching reaction to occur at lower acidity. Roasting at 600°C was selected as the pre-treatment condition for both West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse material. Over 40% of leaching recovery was achieved by roasting West Kentucky No. 13 material having a top particle size of 3 mm in the pilot scale operation using 1.2M sulfuric acid leaching at 75OC. Initial pilot scale testing involved continuous operation of the pilot plant for 94 hours. The leaching unit was operated at solid-to-liquid ratio of 1 to 10 (w/v) using 0.5M sulfuric acid solution at a temperature of 75°C. The continuous solvent extraction circuit utilized rougher and cleaner units with DEHPA and TBP as the extractants. An innovative stripping circuit was developed to accumulate the REE concentration in the stripping solution to a level above 600 ppm. A bleed stream from the recycled strip solution was treated using oxalic acid precipitation which produced a high grade rare earth oxalate. The oxalate product was roasted to remove the oxalate which produced a rare earth oxide product having a purity greater 90%. Due to high concentrations of contaminant ions in the pregnant leach solution (PLS), a modified flowsheet was developed that involved pre-concentration of the REEs using multiple stages of precipitation and redissolution. The advantage of this process was improved removal of contamination before the downstream purification process and a significant cost reduction relative to the circuit that utilized the solvent extraction process. The modified circuitry included processes involving leaching, multistage precipitation, redissolution, and oxalate precipitation followed by roasting of the oxalate product. The circuit produced a mixed REO that was 92.96% pure from the initial test. A detailed parametric test plan was carried out which involved varying key parameters including solids feed rate, acid flowrate, acid concentration, multistage precipitation pH, redissolution pH, oxalate precipitation dosage and pH. The response variables included REE recovery, contaminant recovery, REO product grade and overall chemical consumption. Test results indicated that the acid-to-solid ratio is the key parameter to leaching efficiency as performance deteriorated with an increase in solids concentration. The optimal pH determined for REE precipitation and redissolution was 6.5 and 2.5, respectively. Additional tests were conducted to further improve the flowsheet. Recirculating a portion of the PLS to the feed of the leach tanks improved the leaching performance by lowering the pH of the leaching system and reducing the contamination recovery by shortening the residence time. Moreover, the removal of Al prior to REE precipitation significantly reduced the oxalic acid consumption in the oxalate precipitation circuit. The modified circuit produced over 90% grade REO by weight from both West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse material in pilot scale continuous test programs. A case analysis model was developed to project the REE and major contaminants concentration in each PLS stream based on the leaching condition, pH cut point, and oxalic acid dosage. A correlation was established using empirical and semi-empirical models. Using the models, chemical consumption required for each stage was predicted based on the projected performance of the hydrometallurgy circuit. After identifying the optimum conditions, validation tests were carried out for the treatment of both West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coarse refuse materials in the pilot plant. The actual circuit performance and chemical consumptions were very close to the model predictions. Other than the two coarse refuse sources, several secondary feedstocks were also tested in the pilot plant facility. A “heap leach” system was constructed using the coarse refuse material generated from cleaning the West Kentucky No. 13 seam coal. Using the two stage SX rougher and cleaner circuit, a concentrate with a grade >90% REO was produced while recovering >97% of the REEs from the heap leach PLS. Naturally generated acid mine drainage (AMD) from West Kentucky No.13 mine was processed using the multistage precipitation circuit in the pilot plant in a test conducted for a period of 32 hours. The final grade of the mix RE oxide produced from the AMD was 90.84% with an overall circuit recovery of 64%. The primary source of REE was the selective precipitation steps involving iron and aluminum rejection. The hydrophobic-hydrophilic separation (HHS) process was proven to effectively recover coal from fine waste materials. For REM recovery, the HHS process was able to produce concentrates at grades of approximately 1.8% REE on an ash basis; however, recovery values were typically low, <10%, under the optimal conditions determined in the laboratory-scale testing. Staged testing of the pilot-scale HHS process for coal recovery and semi-continuous laboratory testing for REM testing showed that a total concentration ratio of more than 15x was observed for the REM recovery process. A circuit simulation package was developed for REE extraction and purification using a spreadsheet-based platform (Microsoft Excel). The REESim circuit simulation package is configured to track the mass and volume flows of components passing through a series of unit operations specified and configured by the user. The mass rates can then be utilized by the user to determine important performance indicators such as product mass yields, concentrate purity levels, element-by-element recoveries, and so forth. The techno-economic analysis showed that the roasting and leaching operations were the most expensive capital items, each contributing approximately 30% to the total capital cost. One notable contributor to the high production costs was the low REE recovery observed in the pilot scale trials. The product basket price was shown to have a strong influence on the economic viability of the scenarios, with the scandium price being the most significant influencer. Operating cost was shown to be extremely sensitive to REE recovery, REE feed grade, and leaching acid consumption. An analysis of ten different scenarios for a 500 t/h commercial operation revealed that three were economically favorable, producing internal rates of return varying from 27.7% to 33.1% and payback periods of 4 to 5 years. The project successfully developed and demonstrated a process to recover REEs from coal and coal byproducts in a pilot-plant operation which consistently produced over 90% grade REO mix from varies types of feedstocks. Commercialization analysis showed that the technology readiness level successfully achieved TRL 6 at the end of the project and demonstrated the need and the potential for scaling the process to further advance the technologies toward the goal of providing a domestic supply of REEs at a commercial scale.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2021

Generation-based Evolutionary Tool for the Optimization of Constellations (GenETOC)

With the rapid growth in the capabilities of smaller satellites, satellite architectures that replace a single, extremely capable spacecraft with multiple, cheaper ones are gaining in popularity. Unfortunately, the orbit design process for constellations can be significantly more involved, especiallywhen the relative placement of the individual spacecraft within the constellation is not constrained by mission and/or science objectives. Optimizing a satellite constellation in the presence of multiple, competing objectives is a highly complex problem to which many traditional mathematical optimization methods cannot be applied and few tools exist to help mission designers search for promising candidate mission designs. The Generation-based Evolutionary Tool for the Optimization of Constellations (GenETOC) has been created to search for near-optimal constellation design options. GenETOC combines a modified version of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA II) with STK Components libraries (a 3rdparty .NET package created by Analytical Graphics Inc.) to create a framework that enables a mission designer to generate a simulation that models the design problem and obtain a family of potential, near-optimal solutions that can be investigated more in detail. GenETOC was developed in C# using the .NET framework with Windows Presentation Foundation (WPF) serving as the framework from which to create the graphical user interface (GUI). GenETOC user inputs can be categorized into three major data components: definition of the problem (areas of interest, satellite decision parameters, and sensor configurations), definition of performance objectives, and specification of the genetic algorithm (GA) parameters. In the problem definition component, the user is prompted to define the areas of interest against which the performance metrics will be computed, define the sensor parameters and attach them to specific spacecraft, select which satellite orbital parameters will be added to the decision space of the GA, and specify the range of desired values for each optimization parameter. For performance objectives, the user is presented with a list of available coverage and revisit performance based calculation options from which two metrics are chosen to serve as the objective functions that the GA will use to evaluate solutions during the optimization process. Finally, the definition of the GA parameters provides user control over the number of generations (number of optimization iterations), the population size (number of candidate constellations created in each generation), and the adaptive mutation and crossover threshold values (control parameters for how frequently each process occurs during the optimization). GenETOC has been extensively tested to verify the individual components of the optimization process. The GA has been tested against a suite of GA test problems to confirm convergence to the known two and three-dimensional Pareto fronts. The coverage and revisit performance metrics obtained in GenETOC are compared with STK desktop scenarios, confirming the constellations are being appropriately modeled within GenETOC simulations. A walkthrough of a simple, example problem is provided to illustrate the workings of GenETOC and to demonstrate the output available to the mission designer.

mission design↗