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At least 163 records · Page 9

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Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes over the United States

Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and drought, have a large impact on society through human health, destruction of infrastructure, ecological change, and economic losses. Reanalyses such as NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective Analysis, version 2 (MERRA-2) are a valuable tool for analyzing past extreme events to determine their underlying causes and how extremes have changed over the past four decades. The detection of extreme events relies on a threshold for precipitation or temperature that is derived using a reference period, which can then be used to determine how extreme an event was or what the return period is. Operational centers typically use a 30-year climatology period that shifts in time every ten years, while the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the maximum amount of data should be included for the detection of extreme events due to their rare occurrence. As global and regional climate continues to change, the interpretation of extreme events is reliant on the baseline period that is used for the underlying thresholds and can be a source of uncertainty for the policy making community. Three baseline periods – 1981-2010, 1991-2020, and 1981-2020 – will be used to compute percentiles of temperature and precipitation across the contiguous United States and will then by employed to determine monthly indices representing heatwaves, cold spells, and extreme precipitation events. A spatial and temporal analysis of the resulting extreme weather indices will demonstrate the appropriateness for each baseline period for the evaluation of extreme events.

Extremes↗

DOE OSTI2022

Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey

Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme weather events such as with rainfall during hurricanes. But little research to date investigates if, and to what extent, there are social inequalities in climate change-attributed extreme weather event impacts. Here, we use climate change attribution science paired with hydrological flood models to estimate climate change-attributed flood depths and damages during Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. Using detailed land-parcel and census tract socio-economic data, we then describe the socio-spatial characteristics associated with these climate change-induced impacts. We show that 30 to 50% of the flooded properties would not have flooded without climate change. Climate change-attributed impacts were particularly felt in Latina/x/o neighborhoods, and especially so in Latina/x/o neighborhoods that were low-income and among those located outside of FEMA’s 100-year floodplain. Our focus is thus on climate justice challenges that not only concern future climate change-induced risks, but are already affecting vulnerable populations disproportionately now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

HexWeather: Hexagonal Spatial Data Aggregation for Weather-Driven Grid Resilience Analysis

Extreme weather accounts for over 8 0 % of major U.S. power outages since 2000, highlighting the need for spatial tools that align weather data with the irregular boundaries of electric infrastructure. This paper introduces HexWeather, a modular, resolution-aware framework for aggregating historical and forecasted weather data using Uber's H3 hexagonal spatial indexing system. Unlike traditional methods that rely on state or county-level grids, HexWeather enables weather analysis across custom geographies such as utility service areas where public datasets are often unavailable or misaligned. Using Open-Meteo data, we evaluate how H3 resolution affects anomaly detection, spatial variability, and forecast uncertainty across three scales: state, county, and utility. Results show that while coarse resolutions suffice for broad trend tracking, finer resolutions are essential for identifying localized variability and operational risks. By applying metrics like Z-score standard deviation and interquartile range, HexWeather quantifies the spatial spread of both historical anomalies and forecasted conditions, allowing users to assess resolution adequacy for each analysis. This framework supports rapid weather data reuse, reproducible anomaly detection, and predictive modeling for infrastructure resilience. By bridging spatial misalignment in traditional datasets and enabling retrospective and forward-looking analysis within the same pipeline, HexWeather lays the groundwork for better post event analysis, outage prediction, and resilience planning.

Morris, Jacob [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Big Data Analytics for Long-Term Meteorological Observations at Hanford Site

A growing number of physical objects with embedded sensors with typically high volume and frequently updated data sets has accentuated the need to develop methodologies to extract useful information from big data for supporting decision making. This study applies a suite of data analytics and core principles of data science to characterize near real-time meteorological data with a focus on extreme weather events. To highlight the applicability of this work and make it more accessible from a risk management perspective, a foundation for a software platform with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) was developed to access and analyze data from a decommissioned nuclear production complex operated by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE, Richland, USA). Exploratory data analysis (EDA), involving classical non-parametric statistics, and machine learning (ML) techniques, were used to develop statistical summaries and learn characteristic features of key weather patterns and signatures. The new approach and GUI provide key insights into using big data and ML to assist site operation related to safety management strategies for extreme weather events. Specifically, this work offers a practical guide to analyzing long-term meteorological data and highlights the integration of ML and classical statistics to applied risk and decision science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Fast and Scalable Genetic Algorithm-Based Approach for Planning of Microgrids in Distribution Networks: Preprint

As a result of climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks; thus, the level of proactive preparation of the distribution system to be able to handle severe impacts of extreme weather events represents the system's resilience. One method that distribution systems use to prepare for extreme events is to form multiple microgrids and thereby isolate themselves from the grid supply by using local generation as much as possible to supply critical loads. But partitioning an existing system into multiple feasible islands capable of supporting critical loads is still challenging for distribution systems - first, because of the size of the graph partitioning problem and, second, because of the difficulty in properly formulating the desired attributes of such islands or microgrids. Therefore, this paper presents a genetic algorithmbased approach that facilitates incorporating multiple objectives for grid partitioning by formulating two types of problems - node allocation and edge elimination - and it considers multiple topological and resilience-enhancing objectives. The performance of the proposed genetic algorithm-based approach is numerically evaluated on multiple test systems as well as on a real distribution feeder in Colorado, USA.

edge elimination↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt

As a potential source of low-carbon transportation energy, biofuels offer certain advantages over vehicle electrification (e.g., lower societal vulnerability to grid failures, and improved range of sustainable aviation), but also several challenges, including cost, carbon intensity, and land usage. There are also well-founded concerns that biofuel supply chains could be disrupted if extreme weather events impact feedstock yields. In this paper, we explore the use of multi-objective optimization to identify biofuel production pathways that balance cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and supply vulnerability to extreme weather. We compare the use of three different many-objective evolutionary algorithms and linear programming in optimizing biomass cultivation decisions in the U.S. Corn Belt under weather uncertainty using historical, modeled, and synthetic yield data. We consider four feedstock choices (corn, soy, switchgrass, and algae) with two land types (agricultural and marginal lands) and evaluate decisions using three alternative spatial resolutions (ranging from the USDA agricultural district level to the state level). Results show that feedstock choice is the primary driver of objective performance (i.e., the position and shape of 3D, approximate Pareto frontiers). Spatial diversification is a less effective tool in reducing exposure to weather-caused drops in crop yield.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical Solutions Scan Report

Power lines, poles, and towers are the backbone of the United States (U.S.) electric-power grid. These transmission and distribution networks route electricity from generator to loads. The characteristics of these routes are rapidly changing -- trending towards decentralized renewable generation, electric heating, vehicle charging, and large data-center loads. Coupled with aging infrastructure and the increased frequency of extreme weather events, there is concern about the future reliability and transmission capacity of conductors and adjacent components. This scan report seeks to provide an overview of mechanical solutions to challenges caused by extreme weather events associated with components of transmission and distribution infrastructure, including conductor heat sag, ice accumulation, wind, and wildfire. Many options could increase transmission capacity or reliability, and these are at various stages of technological readiness. Some have only been lab tested, while some have been widely deployed in the U.S. or overseas for decades. The solution categories and providers featured in this report are intended to be comprehensive at the time of publication and to serve as a reference for decision-makers concerned about transmission and distribution reliability. There are two other categories of large, complex solutions, which are not covered in this report: replacing existing conductors with advanced conductors and implementing digital grid enhancing technologies. A separate scan report titled “Advanced Conductor Scan Report,” which discusses advanced carbon-core conductors, was published by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in 2023. Information on digital technologies, such as dynamic line ratings, power-flow controllers, and other power electronics and communications-based devices, can be found on the Grid- Enhancing Technologies landing page. Mechanical grid-enhancing technologies, or solutions covered in this report, often do not require full equipment replacement and do not rely on digital components. Mechanical technologies are overlooked because they may be older, simpler, or seemingly “more obvious” than digital or carbon-core technologies. However, it is wise to consider mechanical solutions in a thorough evaluation of grid enhancing technology solutions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability – the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

Drought monitoring↗

NASA NTRS2020

How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies

Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability - the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2022

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

DOE OSTI2024

Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar

Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.

power grid↗

DOE OSTI2026

Developing Scenario‐Based Strategies for Health, Climate, and Environmental Preparedness: The One Health, One Earth Approach

Climate change amplifies many threats to human health. Despite advances in understanding climate change dynamics and impacts, there remains a critical gap in translating scientific knowledge into equitable, and community-driven health interventions. The inaugural One Earth, One Health workshop sought to explore this gap through human-centered design exercises involving interdisciplinary researchers from climate and Earth sciences, engineering, epidemiology, microbiology, and environmental health. Although participants did not co-develop solutions with affected communities, they used stakeholder role-playing to guide ideation and lay groundwork for actionable plans. Through these methods, participants identified community needs and proposed prototype solutions to alleviate health threats exacerbated by global environmental change. Prototypes were organized around infectious diseases, extreme weather, and air quality, as illustrative themes rather than an exhaustive set of risks. Key solutions included strategies for anticipatory systems and early warning (e.g., integrating environmental signals with health data), inclusive communication and infrastructure needs for responding to extreme weather events, and integrated platforms visualizing air quality trends to support tailored, context-aware guidance beyond one-size-fits-all alerts. The workshop highlighted opportunities such as leveraging machine learning, Earth observation, and real-time surveillance to protect communities, but also noted barriers including data quality, technological redundancy, privacy, and governance challenges. Additionally, participants emphasized the need for interdisciplinary teams capable of collaborating across sectors, breaking down silos and addressing gaps in training and education. Overall, the workshop illustrates how process-driven, human-centered approaches can help surface user needs and generate testable prototype concepts, while underscoring the importance of direct community partnership for implementation.

Abadi, Azar M. [University of Alabama, Birmingham,↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Risk-Driven Probabilistic Approach to Quantify Resilience in Power Distribution Systems

It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact of appropriate planning measures and new operational procedures for resilience enhancement. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric using parameters that define system attributes and performance. To represent extreme events (tail probability), the conditional value-at-risk of each of the parameters are combined using Choquet Integral to evaluate the overall resilience. The effectiveness of the proposed resilience metric is studied within the simulation-based framework under extreme weather scenarios with the help of a modified IEEE 123-bus system. With the proposed framework, system operators will have additional flexibility to prioritize one investment over the others to enhance the resilience of the grid.

Poudyal, Abodh↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distribution System Resilience Assessment Considering PV Vulnerabilities for Hurricane Events

Distribution networks are increasingly vulnerable to damage and outages from extreme weather events. The integration of solar photovoltaics (PVs) further complicates resilience analysis due to its weather-dependent nature. However, limited research has examined the impacts of weather on PVs under severe events like hurricanes. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess distribution system resilience considering PV vulnerabilities during hurricanes. The framework incorporates (i) a spatiotemporal fragility model to evaluate failure probabilities for distribution lines and PVs, and (ii) resilience indices at both system and component levels. The approach offers valuable insights into the resilience of modern distribution grids under extreme weather conditions. Numerical results on the unbalanced IEEE 123-bus test system validate the effectiveness of the framework.

Vahedi, Soroush [University of Connecticut, Storrs↗

DOE OSTI2020

Case Studies of the Economic Impacts of Power Interruptions and Damage to Electricity System Infrastructure from Extreme Events

The risks of long-duration, widespread interruptions (LDWIs) in electrical power are a concern of U.S. regulators, the electric power industry, and stakeholders. Those responsible for making decisions about increasingly costly investments to prevent such interruptions and to facilitate rapid recovery when they do occur need relevant information on which to base those decisions. Although a number of studies have examined the physical and engineering impacts of extreme weather and other precipitating events on the bulk power system, decision makers evaluating investments in preventive strategies need information on the costs of past power interruptions and the benefits of preventing them in the future. This paper contributes to addressing this need by offering six case studies that detail the economics, at the level of the utility service territory, of power interruptions caused by extreme weather and lasting from a few days to several weeks. These intermediate-duration interruptions have been, and will continue to be, the most common type of major electric power disruption. They are longer than the short-term disruptions addressed in utility reliability planning, but not as long or widespread geographically as the national-scale interruptions with durations of many weeks, months, or longer that have been examined in some recent studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strengthening Resilience: Florida Resident Voices on Resource Needs During Power Outages

Extreme weather events related to climate change, and an aging electricity infrastructure are disrupting reliable electricity services to a greater degree. Further, previous research has found that more socially vulnerable populations are more likely to live in areas with a higher probability of power outages. Here, this study examines the issues that people face during power outages and the resources that help individuals maintain resilience during power outages caused by extreme weather events in socially vulnerable communities. Using qualitative data from focus groups with 56 individuals in Central and North Florida, the research highlights lived experiences during outages and difficulties using and accessing resources during these conditions. Based on a qualitative review of the focus group discussions, this paper explores the solutions and support systems residents believe would improve their ability to cope. The findings offer insights to guide policy and strategic planning, with the goal of strengthening personal preparedness and response by focusing on the resources people consider most helpful for enduring frequent and severe outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗