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At least 163 records · Page 9

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained surface wind speed of at least a certain threshold within 24 hr. The most widely used threshold is 30 kt (15.4 m/s), which was determined statistically. Here we propose a new definition for RI by objectively clustering TCs using the intensification rate, initial intensity, and radius of the maximum wind speed (RMW). A group of 770 samples is separated at a threshold of 45 kt (23.2 m/s). The threshold is 40 kt (20.6 m/s) for the western North Atlantic, where TC size measurements are more reliable. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the proposed threshold is robust even considering the uncertainty in RMW of as high as 30 km. We show that, when a TC undergoes RI, its maximum wind speed is approximately 60 ± 15 kt (30.9 ± 7.7 m/s) and the RMW is 45 ± 20 km. The new threshold outperforms the conventional threshold of 30 kt/24 hr in describing the bimodal distribution of lifetime maximum intensity and explaining the annual count of Category 5 TCs. This new definition provides a more physically based threshold and describes a more reliable representation of extreme events. Although more comparisons are needed for operational application, it is likely to be desirable for case‐based process studies and could provide a more valuable metric for TC intensification classification and research.

Li, Yi↗

Detection of Extreme Phenomena in the Stable Boundary Layer over the Amazonian Forest

We apply different methods for detection of extreme phenomena (EP) in air-turbulent time series measured in the nocturnal boundary layer above the Amazon forest. The methods used were: (a) a Morlet complex wavelet transform, which is often used in analysis of non-linear application processes. Through the use of the wavelet, it is possible to observe a phase singularity that involves a strong interaction between an extensive range of scales; (b) recurrence plot tests, which were used to identify a sudden change between different stable atmospheric states. (c) statistical analysis of early-warning signals, which verify simultaneous increases in the autocorrelation function and in the variance in the state variable; and (d) analysis of wind speed versus turbulent kinetic energy to identify different turbulent regimes in the stable boundary layer. We found it is adequate to use a threshold to classify the cases of strong turbulence regime, as a result of the occurrence of EP in the tropical atmosphere. All methods used corroborate and indicate synergy between events that culminate in what we classify as EP of the stable boundary layer above the tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

How Representative Are Uncrewed Aircraft System Measurements of the Convective Boundary Layer?

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) demonstrate significant potential for filling data gaps in the atmospheric boundary layer. However, the extent to which UAS observations—typically vertical profiles taken over 15 min—are representative of the boundary layer as a whole remains poorly characterized. Using large eddy simulations (LES) of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL), we quantify random errors in UAS measurements that occur due to insufficient statistical convergence of the time average to the true ensemble mean. Random errors in first‐order moments increase as the CBL becomes increasingly unstable, and are largest near the surface for most quantities. Errors are on the order of 2–6 m for wind speed, 15–60 for wind direction, 0.2–3 K for potential temperature, and 0.1–1 g for specific humidity, with errors in turbulent fluxes on the order of 50%–100%. Sampling strategies that mitigate random errors are discussed in light of our results.

Greene, Brian R. [Now at Verisk Extreme Event Solu↗

Aerodynamic performance of a fan stage utilizing Variable Inlet Guide Vanes (VIGVs) for thrust modulation

An experimental research program was conducted in the Lewis Research Center's 9x15-foot (2.74x4.57 m) low speed wind tunnel to evaluate the aerodynamic performance of an inlet and fan system with variable inlet guide vanes (VIGVs) for use on a subsonic V/STOL aircraft. At high VIGV blade angles (lower weight flow and thrust levels), the fan stage was stalled over a major portion of its radius. In spite of the stall, fan blade stresses only exceeded the limits at the most extreme flow conditions. It was found that inlet flow separation does not necessarily lead to poor inlet performance or adverse fan operating conditions. Generally speaking, separated inlet flow did not adversely affect the fan blade stress levels. There were some cases, however, at high VIGV angles and high inlet angles-of-attack where excessive blade stress levels were encountered. An evaluation term made up of the product of the distortion parameter, K alpha, the weight flow and the fan pressure ratio minus one, was found to correlate quite well with the observed blade stress results.

Woollett, R. R.↗

Aerodynamic performance of a fan stage utilizing variable inlet guide vanes (VIGV's) for thrust modulation

An experimental research program was conducted in the Lewis Research Center's 9 x 15-foot (2.74 x 4.57 m) low speed wind tunnel to evaluate the aerodynamic performance of an inlet and fan system with variable inlet guide vanes (VIGVs) for use on a subsonic V/STOL aircraft. At high VIGV blade angles (lower weight flow and thrust levels), the fan stage was stalled over a major portion of its radius. In spite of the stall, fan blade stresses only exceeded the limits at the most extreme flow conditions. It was found that inlet flow separation does not necessarily lead to poor inlet performance or adverse fan operating conditions. Generally speaking, separated inlet flow did not adversely affect the fan blade stress levels. There were some cases, however, at high VIGV angles and high inlet angles-of-attack where excessive blade stress levels were encountered. An evaluation term made up of the product of the distortion parameter, K alpha, the weight flow and the fan pressure ratio minus one, was found to correlate quite well with the observed blade stress results. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27957

Woollett, R. R.↗

Current wind tunnel capability and planned improvements at the NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Langley's major wing wind tunnels and the projected facilities planned to be completed by 1988 are presented. Special capabilities, uses, and the improvements done during the Langley's tunnel revitalization program are described for the following facilities: (1) the 30 x 60-ft subsonic tunnel, (2) the 4 x 7-m low-speed testing tunnel, (3) the Low-Turbulence Tunnel, (4) the Spin Tunnel, (5) the National Transonic Pressure Tunnel, (6) Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel, (7) the National Transonic Facility, (8) the 16-ft Transonic Tunnel, (9) the Transonic Dynamic Tunnel, (10) the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, and (11) a new 20-inch supersonic wind tunnel which is currently undergoing final checkout. The design concept of an extremely-low disturbance level supersonic tunnel, the upgrading plans for the hypersonic aerothermal complex, and the present and planned capabilities for testing the hydrogen-fueled Scramjet engines are also presented. In addition, uses of inexpensive simple-to-operate research wind tunnels are discussed. Tunnel diagrams and graphs of upgrade results are included.

Bower, R. E.↗

Modeling Flight: The Role of Dynamically Scaled Free-Flight Models in Support of NASA's Aerospace Programs

The state of the art in aeronautical engineering has been continually accelerated by the development of advanced analysis and design tools. Used in the early design stages for aircraft and spacecraft, these methods have provided a fundamental understanding of physical phenomena and enabled designers to predict and analyze critical characteristics of new vehicles, including the capability to control or modify unsatisfactory behavior. For example, the relatively recent emergence and routine use of extremely powerful digital computer hardware and software has had a major impact on design capabilities and procedures. Sophisticated new airflow measurement and visualization systems permit the analyst to conduct micro- and macro-studies of properties within flow fields on and off the surfaces of models in advanced wind tunnels. Trade studies of the most efficient geometrical shapes for aircraft can be conducted with blazing speed within a broad scope of integrated technical disciplines, and the use of sophisticated piloted simulators in the vehicle development process permits the most important segment of operations the human pilot to make early assessments of the acceptability of the vehicle for its intended mission. Knowledgeable applications of these tools of the trade dramatically reduce risk and redesign, and increase the marketability and safety of new aerospace vehicles. Arguably, one of the more viable and valuable design tools since the advent of flight has been testing of subscale models. As used herein, the term "model" refers to a physical article used in experimental analyses of a larger full-scale vehicle. The reader is probably aware that many other forms of mathematical and computer-based models are also used in aerospace design; however, such topics are beyond the intended scope of this document. Model aircraft have always been a source of fascination, inspiration, and recreation for humans since the earliest days of flight. Within the scientific community, Leonardo da Vinci, George Cayley, and the Wright brothers are examples of early aviation pioneers who frequently used models during their scientific efforts to understand and develop flying machines. Progress in the technology associated with model testing in worldwide applications has firmly established model aircraft as a key element in new aerospace research and development programs. Models are now routinely used in many applications and roles, including aerodynamic data gathering in wind tunnel investigations for the analysis of full-scale aircraft designs, proof-of-concept demonstrators for radical aeronautical concepts, and problem-solving exercises for vehicles already in production. The most critical contributions of aerospace models are to provide confidence and risk reduction for new designs and to enhance the safety and efficiency of existing configurations.

Chambers, Joseph↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Servo-aero-gravo-elastic (SAGE) scaling and its application to a 13-MW downwind turbine

Reduced scale wind turbines can be extremely cost-effective to test new rotor concepts since prototype costs are heavily dependent on the rotor diameter. Ideally, the scaled model would have the same non-dimensional deflections, dynamics, and control behavior as the full-scale model. This would provide a high-fidelity demonstration of the full-scale performance, which is ideal if the full-scale turbine has significant aeroelastic interactions. To this end, servo-aero-gravo-elastic (SAGE) scaling is developed and applied to a 13-MW turbine that is scaled to a 20% scale model. The scaling preserves the tip-speed ratio, the rotor speed normalized by the flapping frequency, and the tip deflections normalized by the blade length. In addition, the controller employs the same control structure (gain-scheduled pitch control and variable speed torque control) and is scaled dynamically (e.g., matching non-dimensional time constant of the pitch angle, etc.). Furthermore, the thrust, gravity, and centrifugal moments are scaled such that the load angles are preserved as a function of a non-dimensional wind speed. However, the environmental scaling must consider differences in Reynolds number (since this parameter cannot be held constant) and subsequent changes in the axial induction factor. While the presented results showcase these differences during operational conditions, the non-dimensional tip deflections remain comparable through all wind speed ranges, indicating the viability of the SAGE scaling method in matching full-scale aeroelastic responses.

Kaminski, Meghan (ORCID:0000000322334784)↗

High-Speed On-Board Data Processing for Science Instruments: HOPS

The project called High-Speed On-Board Data Processing for Science Instruments (HOPS) has been funded by NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program during April, 2012 â€" April, 2015. HOPS is an enabler for science missions with extremely high data processing rates. In this three-year effort of HOPS, Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) and 3-D Winds were of interest in particular. As for ASCENDS, HOPS replaces time domain data processing with frequency domain processing while making the real-time on-board data processing possible. As for 3-D Winds, HOPS offers real-time high-resolution wind profiling with 4,096-point fast Fourier transform (FFT). HOPS is adaptable with quick turn-around time. Since HOPS offers reusable user-friendly computational elements, its FPGA IP Core can be modified for a shorter development period if the algorithm changes. The FPGA and memory bandwidth of HOPS is 20 GB/sec while the typical maximum processor-to-SDRAM bandwidth of the commercial radiation tolerant high-end processors is about 130-150 MB/sec. The inter-board communication bandwidth of HOPS is 4 GB/sec while the effective processor-to-cPCI bandwidth of commercial radiation tolerant high-end boards is about 50-75 MB/sec. Also, HOPS offers VHDL cores for the easy and efficient implementation of ASCENDS and 3-D Winds, and other similar algorithms. A general overview of the 3-year development of HOPS is the goal of this presentation.

Beyon, Jeffrey↗

New Evidence on the Origin of Solar Wind Microstreams/Switchbacks

Microstreams are fluctuations in the solar wind speed and density associated with polarity-reversing folds in the magnetic field (also denoted switchbacks). Despite their long heritage, the origin of these microstreams/switchbacks remains poorly understood. For the first time, we investigated periodicities in microstreams during Parker Solar Probe (PSP) Encounter 10 to understand their origin. Our analysis was focused on the inbound corotation interval on 2021 November 19–21, while the spacecraft dove toward a small area within a coronal hole (CH). Solar Dynamics Observatory remote-sensing observations provide rich context for understanding the PSP in situ data. Extreme ultraviolet images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal numerous recurrent jets occurring within the region that was magnetically connected to PSP during intervals that contained microstreams. The periods derived from the fluctuating radial velocities in the microstreams (approximately 3, 5, 10, and 20 minutes) are consistent with the periods measured in the emission intensity of the jetlets at the base of the CH plumes, as well as in larger coronal jets and in the plume fine structures. Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager magnetograms reveal the presence of myriad embedded bipoles, which are known sources of reconnection-driven jets on all scales. Simultaneous enhancements in the PSP proton flux and ionic ( 3 He, 4 He, Fe, O) composition during the microstreams further support the connection with jetlets and jets. In keeping with prior observational and numerical studies of impulsive coronal activity, we conclude that quasiperiodic jets generated by interchange/ breakout reconnection at CH bright points and plume bases are the most likely sources of the microstreams/ switchbacks observed in the solar wind.

Pankaj Kumar↗

Developement of an Optimum Interpolation Analysis Method for the CYBER 205

A state-of-the-art technique to assimilate the diverse observational database obtained during FGGE, and thus create initial conditions for numerical forecasts is described. The GLA optimum interpolation (OI) analysis method analyzes pressure, winds, and temperature at sea level, mixing ratio at six mandatory pressure levels up to 300 mb, and heights and winds at twelve levels up to 50 mb. Conversion to the CYBER 205 required a major re-write of the Amdahl OI code to take advantage of the CYBER vector processing capabilities. Structured programming methods were used to write the programs and this has resulted in a modular, understandable code. Among the contributors to the increased speed of the CYBER code are a vectorized covariance-calculation routine, an extremely fast matrix equation solver, and an innovative data search and sort technique.

Nestler, M. S.↗

Currents and Flows in Distant Magnetospheres

Space scientists have explored, described, and explained the terrestrial magnetosphere for four decades. Rarely do they point out that the planetary and solar wind parameters controlling the size, shape, and activity of Earth's magnetosphere map out only a small portion of the space of dimensionless parameters that govern magnetospheric properties. With the discovery of Ganymede's magnetosphere, the range of parameters relevant to magnetospheric studies has grown by orders of magnitude. Consider the extremes of Ganymede's and Jupiter's magnetospheres. Jupiter's magnetosphere forms within a plasma flowing at super-Alfvenic speed, whereas Ganymede's forms in a sub-Alfvenic flow. The scale sizes of these magnetospheres, characterized by distances to the magnetopause of order 7x10(exp 6) km and 5x10(exp 3) km, respectively, differ by three orders of magnitude, ranging from 100 to 0.1 times the scale of Earth's magnetosphere. The current systems that control the structure and dynamics of a magnetosphere depend on specific plasma and field properties. Magnetopause currents at Ganymede differ greatly from the forms familiar for Earth and Jupiter, principally because the Mach number of the ambient plasma flow greatly influences the shape of the magnetosphere. A magnetodisk current, present at Jupiter because of its rapid rotation, is absent at Earth and Ganymede. The ring current, extensively investigated at Earth, is probably unimportant at Ganymede because the dynamical variations of the external flow are slow. The ring current is subsumed within the magnetodisk current at Jupiter. This paper describes and contrasts aspects of these and other current systems for the three bodies.

Kivelson, Margaret Galland↗

Challenges in Modeling the Sun-Earth System

The transfer of mass, energy and momentum through the coupled Sun-Earth system spans a wide range of scales in time and space. While profound advances have been made in modeling isolated regions of the Sun-Earth system, minimal progress has been achieved in modeling the end-to-end system. Currently, end-to-end modeling of the Sun-Earth system is a major goal of the National Space Weather and NASA Living With a Star (LWS) programs. The uncertainty in the underlying physics responsible for coupling contiguous regions of the Sun-Earth system is recognized as a significant barrier to progress. Our limited understanding of the underlying coupling physics is illustrated by the following example questions: how does the propagation of a typical CME/solar flare influence the measured properties of the solar wind at 1 AU? How does the solar wind compel the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere? How is variability in the ionosphere-thermosphere system coupled to magnetospheric variations? Why do these and related important questions remain unanswered? What are the primary problems that need to be resolved to enable significant progress in comprehensive modeling of the Sun-Earth system? Which model/technique improvements are required and what new data coverage is required to enable full model advances? This poster opens the discussion for how these and other important questions can be addressed. A workshop scheduled for October 8-22, 2004 in Huntsville, Alabama, will be a forum for identifying ana exploring promising new directions and approaches for characterizing and understanding the system. To focus the discussion, the workshop will emphasize the genesis, evolution, propagation and interaction of high-speed solar wind streamers or CME/flares with geospace and the subsequent response of geospace from its outer reaches in the magnetosphere to the lower edge of the ionosphere-mesosphere-thermosphere. Particular emphasis will be placed on modeling the coupling aspects of these phenomena across boundaries between regions and on data analysis that guides and constrains model results. Specific topics to be addressed are: Corotating interaction regions, Coronal mass ejections, Energetic particles, System preconditioning, Extreme events and super storms, End-to-End modeling efforts.

Spann, James↗

Technology-enabled Airborne Spacing and Merging

Over the last several decades, advances in airborne and groundside technologies have allowed the Air Traffic Service Provider (ATSP) to give safer and more efficient service, reduce workload and frequency congestion, and help accommodate a critically escalating traffic volume. These new technologies have included advanced radar displays, and data and communication automation to name a few. In step with such advances, NASA Langley is developing a precision spacing concept designed to increase runway throughput by enabling the flight crews to manage their inter-arrival spacing from TRACON entry to the runway threshold. This concept is being developed as part of NASA s Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) project under the Advanced Air Transportation Technologies Program. Precision spacing is enabled by Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), which provides air-to-air data exchange including position and velocity reports; real-time wind information and other necessary data. On the flight deck, a research prototype system called Airborne Merging and Spacing for Terminal Arrivals (AMSTAR) processes this information and provides speed guidance to the flight crew to achieve the desired inter-arrival spacing. AMSTAR is designed to support current ATC operations, provide operationally acceptable system-wide increases in approach spacing performance and increase runway throughput through system stability, predictability and precision spacing. This paper describes problems and costs associated with an imprecise arrival flow. It also discusses methods by which Air Traffic Controllers achieve and maintain an optimum interarrival interval, and explores means by which AMSTAR can assist in this pursuit. AMSTAR is an extension of NASA s previous work on in-trail spacing that was successfully demonstrated in a flight evaluation at Chicago O Hare International Airport in September 2002. In addition to providing for precision inter-arrival spacing, AMSTAR provides speed guidance for aircraft on converging routes to safely and smoothly merge onto a common approach. Much consideration has been given to working with operational conditions such as imperfect ADS-B data, wind prediction errors, changing winds, differing aircraft types and wake vortex separation requirements. A series of Monte Carlo simulations are planned for the spring and summer of 2004 at NASA Langley to further study the system behavior and performance under more operationally extreme and varying conditions. This will coincide with a human-in-the-loop study to investigate the flight crew interface, workload and acceptability.

Hull, James↗