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At least 163 records · Page 9

ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error), and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper limits that applies to all detection algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The essential character of the neutrino mechanism of core-collapse supernova explosions

Abstract Calibrating with detailed 2D core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations, we derive a simple CCSN explosion condition based solely upon the terminal density profiles of state-of-the-art stellar evolution calculations of the progenitor massive stars. This condition captures the vast majority of the behaviour of the one hundred 2D state-of-the-art models we performed to gauge its usefulness. The goal is to predict, without resort to detailed simulation, the explodability of a given massive star. We find that the simple maximum fractional ram pressure jump discriminant we define works well ∼90 per cent of the time and we speculate on the origin of the few false positives and false negatives we witness. The maximum ram pressure jump generally occurs at the time of accretion of the silicon/oxygen interface, but not always. Our results depend upon the fidelity with which the current implementation of our code F ornax adheres to Nature and issues concerning the neutrino–matter interaction, the nuclear equation of state, the possible effects of neutrino oscillations, grid resolution, the possible role of rotation and magnetic fields, and the accuracy of the numerical algorithms employed remain to be resolved. Nevertheless, the explodability condition we obtain is simple to implement, shows promise that it might be further generalized while still employing data from only the unstable Chandrasekhar progenitors, and is a more credible and robust simple explosion predictor than can currently be found in the literature.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Metabolomics Assay to Diagnose Citrus Huanglongbing Disease and to Aid in Assessment of Treatments to Prevent or Cure Infection

Citrus greening disease, or Huanglongbing (HLB), has devastated citrus crops globally in recent years. The causal bacterium, ‘ Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’, presents a sampling issue for qPCR diagnostics and results in a high false negative rate. In this work, we compared six metabolomics assays to identify HLB-infected citrus trees from leaf tissue extracted from 30 control and 30 HLB-infected trees. A liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based assay was most accurate. A final partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) model was trained and validated on 690 leaf samples with corresponding qPCR measures from three citrus varieties (Rio Red grapefruit, Hamlin sweet orange, and Valencia sweet orange) from orchards in Florida and Texas. Trees were naturally infected with HLB transmitted by the insect vector Diaphorina citri. In a randomized validation set, the assay was 99.9% accurate to classify diseased from nondiseased samples. This model was applied to samples from trees receiving plant defense-inducer compounds or biological treatments to prevent or cure HLB infection. From two trials, HLB-related metabolite abundances and PLS-DA scores were tracked longitudinally and compared with those of control trees. We demonstrate how our assay can assess tree health and the efficacy of HLB treatments and conclude that no trialed treatment was efficacious.

Plant Sciences↗

Computational and experimental investigation for new transition metal selenides and sulfides: The importance of experimental verification for stability

Expanding the library of known inorganic materials with functional electronic or magnetic behavior is a long-standing goal in condensed matter physics and materials science. Recently, the transition metal chalcogenides including selenium and sulfur have been of interest because of their correlated-electron properties, as seen in the iron-based superconductors and the transition metal dichalcogenides. However, the chalcogenide chemical space is less explored than that of oxides, and there is an open question of whether there may be new materials heretofore undiscovered. We perform a systematic combined theoretical and experimental search over ternary phase diagrams that are empty in the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database containing cations, transition metals, and one of selenium or sulfur. In these 27 ternary systems, we use a probabilistic model to reduce the likelihood of false negative predictions, which results in a list of 24 candidate materials. We then conduct a variety of synthesis experiments to check the candidate materials for stability. While the prediction method did obtain previously unknown compositions that are predicted stable within density functional theory, none of the candidate materials formed in our experiments. Finally, we come to the conclusion that these phase diagrams are “empty” in the case of bulk synthesis, but it remains a possibility that alternate synthesis routes may produce some of these phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Visual attention based detection of signs of anthropogenic activities in satellite imagery

With increasing deployment of satellite imaging systems, only a small fraction of collected data can be subject to expert scrutiny. We present and evaluate a two-tier approach to broad area search for signs of anthropogenic activities in high-resolution commercial satellite imagery. The method filters image information using semantically oriented interest points by combining Harris corner detection and spatial pyramid matching. The idea is that anthropogenic structures, such as rooftop outlines, fence corners, road junctions, are locally arranged in specific angular relations to each other. They are often oriented at approximately right angles to each other (which is known as rectilinearity relation). Detecting the rectilinearity provides an opportunity to highlight regions most likely to contain anthropogenic activity. This is followed by supervised classification of regions surrounding the detected corner points as man-made vs. natural scenes. We consider, in particular, a search for anthropogenic activities in uncluttered areas. In this paper, we proposed and evaluated a two-tier approach to broad area search for signs of anthropogenic activities. Results from experiments on high-resolution ({approx}0.6m) commercial satellite image data showed the potential applicability of this approach and its ability of achieving both high precision and recall rates. The main advantage of combining corner-based cueing with general object recognition is that the incorporation of domain specific knowledge even in its more general form, such as presence of comers, provides a useful cue to narrow the focus of search for signs of anthropogenic activities. Combination of comer based cueing with spatial pyramid matching addressed the issue of comer categorization. An important practical issue for further research is optimizing the balance between false positive and false negative rates. While the results presented in the paper are encouraging, the problem of an automated broad area search for signs of anthropogenic activities remains challenging.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Rolling Root Mean Square Based Multimodal Anomaly Detection for Real Time Monitoring of Smart Grid

Reliable real-time monitoring is valuable for maintaining the operational integrity of modern electrical smart grids. Deployment of heterogeneous sensing technologies in substations has enabled high-resolution, multichannel waveform monitoring, but also introduces challenges for anomaly detection due to noise, baseline drift, and modality-dependent signal characteristics. In this work, we present a computationally efficient unsupervised method for multimodal event detection based on Rolling Root Mean Square based Event Detection (RRMSED). The method is developed using in-house, field deployed sensors collecting data at a utility substation. The sensing system comprises voltage and current sensors, triaxial accelerometers, and magnetometers, collectively capturing electrical, vibrational, and magnetic waveform measurements at high temporal resolution. RRMSED operates by extracting rolling RMS energy features and their first-order temporal differences from consecutive waveform segments for each channel and then applying channel-specific statistical thresholds learned from historical data. A persistence-based exceedance logic is employed to robustly identify transient events while suppressing impulsive noise, and to provide precise temporal localization with high resolution. The framework is designed for continuous server-side operation and can be deployed in real time without requiring complex models. Experiments on simulated waveform data with known ground truth demonstrate low false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) rates. Application to real substation data shows RRMSED to identify events that are not captured by conventional monitoring indicators including fast transient detection algorithm currently deployed in the system. These results indicate that rolling RMS based features provide an effective and practical basis for real-time multimodal event detection in smart-grid substations.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Leveraging Fine-Grained Occupancy Estimation Patterns for Effective HVAC Control

As occupancy sensing technologies become mature, various occupancy sensors are increasingly deployed in commercial buildings for pervasive occupancy monitoring. These sensors provide occupant-count data, which contains rich spatiotemporal information about occupancy patterns. With long-term occupant-count data collected from a commercial building, we design three different predictive models that capture the occupancy dynamics and examine how a model predictive control of the HVAC system benefits from actual occupancy count prediction. Our analysis reveals that mispredictions of occupancy states, especially false positives and false negatives, may introduce inefficient control that leads to energy waste or user discomfort. To address this issue, we take a step further to design an adaptive model predictive controller that minimizes inefficient control actions according to misprediction types and distributions. A comprehensive evaluation is performed in OpenBuild and EnergyPlus simulators to study the effectiveness of the proposed end-to-end control strategy. The evaluation shows that the proposed solution reduces energy consumption by 29.5% while improving the average weighted occupants comfort by 86.7% in Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) over the fixed schedule strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning-based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in Wide Area Voltage Control Systems

Wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) are widely deployed in power grid to improve the voltage stability in transmission system using Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. The WAVCS relies on wide-area measurement and control signals for closed-loop control of FACTS devices to improve the transient voltage stability in power grid in real-time. Since the WAVCS utilizes a cyber-layer communication during its normal operation, they are susceptible to cyber attacks from adversaries which can lead to a voltage collapse if the attacks go undetected and unmitigated. This paper proposes a supervised machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection algorithm for detecting various stealthy cyber attacks in the context of WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, a fuzzy logic-based wide-area controller, as proposed by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is implemented on the Kundur’s four machine two-area system that is integrated with a static var compensator (SVC) to improve voltage profile on sensitive buses. Later, different types of data integrity attacks, including pulse and ramp attacks, are considered on the wide-area measurement and control signals to analyze the performance of the proposed anomaly detector. Our experimental evaluation shows a promising performance with a high true-positive rate (more than 99%) and low false-negative rate (less than 1%) while exhibiting a small prediction time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Clear-Sky Detection Using Time-Averaged, Tilted-Plane Data

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array, time-averaged irradiance data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. We show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data intervals, and by detecting clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. We illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

clear-sky conditions↗

A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another, our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.

Nobles, Mallory A.↗

Anomaly Detection, Localization and Classification using Drifting Synchrophasor Data Streams

With ongoing automation and digitization of the electric power system, several Phasor Measurement Units(PMUs) have been deployed for monitoring and control. PMU data can have multiple anomalies, and many of the researchers in the past have concentrated on training machine/deep learning algorithms offline for anomaly detection over PMU data (i.e., not in real time). These machine/deep learning algorithms, when trained offline on a sample rather than a population of the dataset, fail to consider the dynamic behavior of the power grid in real-time, resulting in low accuracy. Considering the dynamic behavior of the power grid (e.g., change in load, generation, distributed energy resources (DERs) switching, network, controls), the definition of data anomalies varies in time and requires online training. A fundamental challenge is to enable online (i.e., real-time) training of machine/deep learning algorithms for anomaly detection over streaming PMU data. While machine/deep learning is often desirable to manage data streams, training a deep learning algorithm over streaming PMU data is nontrivial due to changes in data statistics caused by dynamic streaming data. This paper proposes PMUNET: a novel device-level deep learning-based data-driven approach for anomaly detection, localization, and classification over streaming PMU data, using online learning and multivariate data-drift detection algorithm .Two variants of PMUNET, Dynamic data Change Driven Learning (DCDL) and Continuity Driven Learning (CDL), are proposed and compared. DCDL aims to train the deep learning algorithm whenever the definition of anomaly changes due to the power grid dynamics. On the other hand, CDL continuously trains the deep learning algorithm over the PMU data-stream. The experimental results verify that DCDL outperforms CDL and other efficient anomaly detection methods over multiple events such as faults and load/ generator/capacitor/DERs variations/switching for IEEE 14 and 39 Bus test system as well as real PMU industrial data. The result verifies that DCDL variant of PMUNET improves over existing approach with a gain of 2% - 10% in terms of accuracy, false-positive rate, and false-negative rate.

adversarial deep learning↗

Virtual Tool Mark Generation for Efficient Striation Analysis

This study introduces a tool mark analysis approach based upon 3D scans of screwdriver tip and marked plate surfaces at the micrometer scale from an optical microscope. An open-source 3D graphics software package is utilized to simulate the marking process as the projection of the tip's geometry in the direction of tool travel. The edge of this projection becomes a virtual tool mark that is compared to cross-sections of the marked plate geometry using the statistical likelihood algorithm introduced by Chumbley et al. In a study with both sides of six screwdriver tips and 34 corresponding marks, the method distinguished known matches from known nonmatches with zero false-positive matches and two false-negative matches. For matches, it could predict the correct marking angle within ±5–10°. Individual comparisons could be made in seconds on a desktop computer, suggesting that the method could save time for examiners.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Data-driven Approach for Predicting Nepheline Crystallization in High-Level Waste Glasses

High-level waste (HLW) glasses with high aluminum content are prone to nepheline crystallization during the slow canister cooling that is experienced during large-scale production. Due to its detrimental effects on glass durability, nepheline precipitation must be avoided; however, developing robust, predictive models for nepheline crystallization behavior in HLW glasses is difficult due to their compositional complexity. Using overly conservative constraints to predict nepheline formation can limit the waste loading to lower than the achievable capacity. In this study, a robust data-driven model using five compositional features has been developed to predict nepheline formation. The analysis of the model and the data show that there is an overlap, instead of a distinct compositional boundary, between glasses that form and do not form nepheline. As a result, the model’s predictive accuracy is not the same throughout the feature space and instead is dependent on the location of the glass composition in the dimensionally reduced feature space.

Sargin, Irmak↗

Data Analytics Applied to Coal Fired Boilers for Detecting Leaks

Data analytics were used to detect boiler leaks from five different coal-fired boilers including both subcritical and supercritical systems. Discriminant functions were developed that detected leaks up to two weeks prior to forced plant shutdowns for repairs. The leaks were identified to occur at different sections of the boiler for each plant, including waterwalls, economizer and superheater using conventional process measurement data. Leaking conditions were detected with a high degree of confidence (≪ 1% misclassified observations) and were able to distinguish normal operations from those time periods with steam leaks even while operating the power plants in power cycling mode.Multivariable statistical analyses, including Principal Component (PCA), cluster, and Fischer Discriminant Analysis (FDA) were used to characterize the leak occurrence. Normal and operational states with steam leaks were provided in the original process datasets. These datasets were split into two different groups for training and validation purposes. The data were sorted chronologically, and every third observation was assigned to training the Discriminant Function Model (DFM) while the rest were reserved for validation. PCA was used to reduce dimensionality of the original datasets. Canonical and FDA analyses were used to investigate the relationship between process variables. The outcome of the analyses revealed that nearly 35,000 observations were classified correctly; less than 0.05% of total observations were misclassified to be leaking, i.e. both false positives and false negatives.

Indrawan, Natarianto↗

Hyperspectral fluorescence microscopy detects autofluorescent factors that can be exploited as a diagnostic method for Candida species differentiation

Fungi in the Candida genus are the most common fungal pathogens. They not only cause high morbidity and mortality but can also cost billions of dollars in healthcare. To alleviate this burden, early and accurate identification of Candida species is necessary. However, standard identification procedures can take days and have a large false negative error. The method described in this study takes advantage of hyperspectral confocal fluorescence microscopy, which enables the capability to quickly and accurately identify and characterize the unique autofluorescence spectra from different Candida species with up to 84% accuracy when grown in conditions that closely mimic physiological conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Patient dose simulations for scanning-beam digital x-ray tomosynthesis of the lungs

Purpose: An improved method of image guidance for lung tumor biopsies could help reduce the high rate of false negatives. The aim of this work is to optimize the geometry of the scanning-beam digital tomography system (SBDX) for providing real-time 3D tomographic reconstructions for target verification. The unique geometry of the system requires trade-offs between patient dose, imaging field of view (FOV), and tomographic angle.Methods: Tomosynthetic angle as a function of tumor-to-detector distance was calculated. Monte Carlo Software (PCXMC) was used to calculate organ doses and effective dose for source-to-detector distances (SDDs) from 90 to 150 cm, patient locations with the tumor at 20 cm from the source to 20 cm from the detector, and FOVs centered on left lung and right lung as well as medial and distal peripheries of the lungs. These calculations were done for two systems, a SBDX system and a GE OEC-9800 C-arm fluoroscopic unit. To evaluate the dose effect of the system geometry, results from PCXMC were calculated using a scan of 300 mAs for both SBDX and fluoroscopy. The Rose Criterion was used to find the fluence required for a tumor SNR of 5, factoring in scatter, air-gap, system geometry, and patient position for all models generated with PCXMC. Using the calculated fluence for constant tumor SNR, the results from PCXMC were used to compare the patient dose for a given SNR between SBDX and fluoroscopy.Results: Tomographic angle changes with SDD only in the region near the detector. Due to their geometry, the source array and detector have a peak tomographic angle for any given SDD at a source to tumor distance that is 69.7% of the SDD assuming constant source and detector size. Changing the patient location in order to increase tomographic angle has a significant effect on organ dose distribution due to geometrical considerations. With SBDX and fluoroscopy geometries, the dose to organs typically changes in an opposing manner with changing patient location. When tumor SNR is held constant (i.e., x-ray fluence is scaled appropriately), SBDX gives 2–10 times less dose than fluoroscopy for the same conditions within the typical range of patient locations. The relative position of the patient (as a percent of SDD) has a much more significant impact on dose than either SDD or patient position. The patient position providing the minimum dose for a given tumor SNR and SDD is approximately the same as the position of maximum tomographic angle.Conclusions: SBDX offers a significant dose advantage over currently used C-arm fluoroscopy. The patient location with lowest dose coincides with the location of maximum tomographic angle. In order to provide adequate space for the patient and for the pulmonologists’ equipment, a SDD of 100 cm is recommended.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Thoracic cavity segmentation algorithm using multiorgan extraction and surface fitting in volumetric CT

Purpose: To develop and validate a semiautomatic segmentation method for thoracic cavity volumetry and mediastinum fat quantification of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods: The thoracic cavity region was separated by segmenting multiorgans, namely, the rib, lung, heart, and diaphragm. To encompass various lung disease-induced variations, the inner thoracic wall and diaphragm were modeled by using a three-dimensional surface-fitting method. To improve the accuracy of the diaphragm surface model, the heart and its surrounding tissue were segmented by a two-stage level set method using a shape prior. To assess the accuracy of the proposed algorithm, the algorithm results of 50 patients were compared to the manual segmentation results of two experts with more than 5 years of experience (these manual results were confirmed by an expert thoracic radiologist). The proposed method was also compared to three state-of-the-art segmentation methods. The metrics used to evaluate segmentation accuracy were volumetric overlap ratio (VOR), false positive ratio on VOR (FPRV), false negative ratio on VOR (FNRV), average symmetric absolute surface distance (ASASD), average symmetric squared surface distance (ASSSD), and maximum symmetric surface distance (MSSD). Results: In terms of thoracic cavity volumetry, the mean ± SD VOR, FPRV, and FNRV of the proposed method were (98.17 ± 0.84)%, (0.49 ± 0.23)%, and (1.34 ± 0.83)%, respectively. The ASASD, ASSSD, and MSSD for the thoracic wall were 0.28 ± 0.12, 1.28 ± 0.53, and 23.91 ± 7.64 mm, respectively. The ASASD, ASSSD, and MSSD for the diaphragm surface were 1.73 ± 0.91, 3.92 ± 1.68, and 27.80 ± 10.63 mm, respectively. The proposed method performed significantly better than the other three methods in terms of VOR, ASASD, and ASSSD. Conclusions: The proposed semiautomatic thoracic cavity segmentation method, which extracts multiple organs (namely, the rib, thoracic wall, diaphragm, and heart), performed with high accuracy and may be useful for clinical purposes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Multiattribute probabilistic prostate elastic registration (MAPPER): Application to fusion of ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging

Purpose: Transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided needle biopsy is the current gold standard for prostate cancer diagnosis. However, up to 40% of prostate cancer lesions appears isoechoic on TRUS. Hence, TRUS-guided biopsy has a high false negative rate for prostate cancer diagnosis. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is better able to distinguish prostate cancer from benign tissue. However, MRI-guided biopsy requires special equipment and training and a longer procedure time. MRI-TRUS fusion, where MRI is acquired preoperatively and then aligned to TRUS, allows for advantages of both modalities to be leveraged during biopsy. MRI-TRUS-guided biopsy increases the yield of cancer positive biopsies. In this work, the authors present multiattribute probabilistic postate elastic registration (MAPPER) to align prostate MRI and TRUS imagery. Methods: MAPPER involves (1) segmenting the prostate on MRI, (2) calculating a multiattribute probabilistic map of prostate location on TRUS, and (3) maximizing overlap between the prostate segmentation on MRI and the multiattribute probabilistic map on TRUS, thereby driving registration of MRI onto TRUS. MAPPER represents a significant advancement over the current state-of-the-art as it requires no user interaction during the biopsy procedure by leveraging texture and spatial information to determine the prostate location on TRUS. Although MAPPER requires manual interaction to segment the prostate on MRI, this step is performed prior to biopsy and will not substantially increase biopsy procedure time. Results: MAPPER was evaluated on 13 patient studies from two independent datasets—Dataset 1 has 6 studies acquired with a side-firing TRUS probe and a 1.5 T pelvic phased-array coil MRI; Dataset 2 has 7 studies acquired with a volumetric end-firing TRUS probe and a 3.0 T endorectal coil MRI. MAPPER has a root-mean-square error (RMSE) for expert selected fiducials of 3.36 ± 1.10 mm for Dataset 1 and 3.14 ± 0.75 mm for Dataset 2. State-of-the-art MRI-TRUS fusion methods report RMSE of 3.06–2.07 mm. Conclusions: MAPPER aligns MRI and TRUS imagery without manual intervention ensuring efficient, reproducible registration. MAPPER has a similar RMSE to state-of-the-art methods that require manual intervention.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗