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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Contribution to solving the energy crisis - Simulating the prospects for low cost energy through silicon solar cells

PECAN (Photovoltaic Energy Conversion Analysis) is a highly interactive decision analysis and support system. It simulates the prospects for widespread use of solar cells for the generation of electrical power. PECAN consists of a set of integrated APL functions for evaluating the potential of terrestrial photovoltaics. Specifically, the system is a deterministic simulator, which translates present and future manufacturing technology into economic and financial terms, using the production unit concept. It guides solar cell development in three areas: tactical decision making, strategic planning, and the formulation of alternative options.

Kran, A.↗

San Francisco Bar Pilot Fatigue Study

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent of fatigue among San Francisco Bar Pilots (Maritime Pilots) and its potential impact on safety, and to make recommendations concerning how the risk of fatigue could be managed. Information was gathered via a literature review, observations of Bar Pilots at work, surveys, a task analysis, and an analysis of dispatch records.The work of San Francisco Bar Pilots involves an unusual mix of activities and job demands. Their work calls for situational awareness, reasoning, communication, and perceptual abilities comparable to those required by airline pilots and air traffic controllers. Errors can have severe consequences for public safety and the environment, as well as significant financial costs. Fatigue is increasingly recognized as a hazard that must be managed by the transportation industry. The reduced sleep quality and quantity experienced by personnel who work at night, in conjunction with human circadian rhythms can lead to an operationally significant level of cognitive impairment. The cognitive impact of fatigue includes functions that are critical to safe maritime piloting, such as vigilance, judgment, reaction time and communication. The surveys distributed to Bar Pilots did not uncover evidence of widespread fatigue. The survey results also suggested that fatigue was not a major concern of Bar Pilots. Bar Pilots had overall low scores on the subjective fatigue measures used in the survey, and generally assessed the safety risk due to fatigue as low. Compared to air traffic controllers, Bar Pilots gave significantly lower ratings on questions concerning the prevalence and impact of fatigue. The application of fatigue modeling software to Bar Pilot dispatch records identified that in most cases, pilot's cognitive effectiveness was predicted to be acceptable during their duty periods. However, these results could not be verified with objective data.The study identified a number of fatigue issues that deserve attention. These include Bar Pilot work periods that frequently infringe on the circadian low, consecutive work periods without a significant break, consecutive periods of night work, unpredictable work schedules, start time variability, the potential for sleep inertia, and the number of pilots on the board at any given time.

fatigue↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of a Thermal Energy Storage System to a Central Plant

Increasing energy demand and rising peak loads present significant challenges for energy management in commercial and institutional settings. As climate change drives greater cooling needs, central plants must navigate the complex tradeoffs between operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems offer a viable solution by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, thereby reducing peak demand, lowering utility expenses, and improving grid resilience. However, the success of TES implementation hinges on appropriate system sizing, effective control strategies, and alignment with local utility rate structures. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills. Drawing on historical load profiles and utility tariffs, we assess three TES sizing approaches and their corresponding control strategies from both energy and economic perspectives. This article utilizes a model-based approach to assess the impact of TES sizing and control strategies on the techno-economic feasibility of integrating TES into an existing central plant. The models employed for this analysis were calibrated using 4 years of historical data. Here, the results demonstrated that utility tariffs and the campus's operational profiles dictate the most feasible sizing and control methods. The findings offer valuable insights for institutions and commercial building managers exploring sustainable energy solutions. By demonstrating how optimized TES strategies can improve operational efficiency while achieving financial savings, this study highlights the potential for TES to align performance with cost effectiveness in real-world applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

PrimeSupplier Cross-Program Impact Analysis and Supplier Stability Indicator Simulation Model

PrimeSupplier, a supplier cross-program and element-impact simulation model, with supplier solvency indicator (SSI), has been developed so that the shuttle program can see early indicators of supplier and product line stability, while identifying the various elements and/or programs that have a particular supplier or product designed into the system. The model calculates two categories of benchmarks to determine the SSI, with one category focusing on agency programmatic data and the other focusing on a supplier's financial liquidity. PrimeSupplier was developed to help NASA smoothly transition design, manufacturing, and repair operations from the Shuttle program to the Constellation program, without disruption in the industrial supply base.

Calluzzi, Michael↗

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

Residential Building Stock Characterization in Palm Beach County, Florida

This building stock characterizations is intended to help Palm Beach County (PBC) Office of Resilience (OOR) and municipalities composing the Municipal Resilience Partnership prioritize building energy efficiency investments to reduce energy costs and increase resilience for the county's most vulnerable residents. The analysis utilizes NREL’s ResStock model to characterize PBC’s residential building stock, including building type, renter/owner status, size (square footage), age of buildings (vintage), HVAC system types, and, for multi-family buildings, number of units. Building energy efficiency, weatherization, and electrification upgrade packages were assessed for approximate cost, customer bill-savings, and emissions reductions potential and findings will help guide OOR financial assistance program design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have ranked as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study we apply a fixed-constraint storyline approach that holds storm tracks and initial conditions constant to probe future TC intensity in the North Atlantic Basin. First, we simulate 618 historical TC events using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep-learning intensity model. Next, we apply warming signals derived from eight CMIP6 climate scenarios and rerun each event to explore how intensities respond across scenarios. Finally, we develop an interactive dashboard that allows users to explore individual storm simulations and the scenario-modified environmental drivers. Together, this dataset and tool provide a clear, illustrative way to investigate how TC intensity responds to changes in air-sea state.

Climate Change↗

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗

Involving the new generations in Fermilab endeavors

Since 1984 the Italian groups of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) and Italian Universities, collaborating with the DOE laboratory of Fermilab (US) have been running a two-month summer training program for Italian university students. While in the first year the program involved only four physics students of the University of Pisa, in the following years it was extended to engineering students. This extension was very successful and the engineering students have been since then extremely well accepted by the Fermilab Technical, Accelerator, and Scientific Computing Division groups. Over the many years of its existence, this program has proven to be the most effective way to engage new students in Fermilab endeavors. Many students have extended their collaboration with Fermilab with their Master’s Thesis and PhD. Since 2004 the program has been supported in part by DOE in the frame of an exchange agreement with INFN. Over its almost 40 years of history, the program has grown in scope and size and has involved more than 550 Italian students from more than 20 Italian Universities, Several Institutes of Research, including ASI and INAF in Italy, and the ISSNAF Foundation in the US, have provided additional financial support. Since the program does not exclude appropriately selected non-Italian students, a handful of students from European and non-European Universities were also accepted over the years. Each intern is supervised by a Fermilab Mentor responsible for performing the training program. Training programs spanned from Tevatron, CMS, Muon (g-2), Mu2e, and Short Baseline Neutrino Experiments and DUNE design and experimental data analysis, development of particle detectors (silicon trackers, calorimeters, drift chambers, neutrino and dark matter detectors), design of electronic and accelerator components, development of infrastructures and software for exascale data handling, research on superconductive elements and on accelerating cavities, and theory of particle accelerators. Since 2010, within an extended program supported by the Italian Space Agency and the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics, a total of 30 students in physics, astrophysics, and engineering have been hosted for two months in the summer at US space science Research Institutes and laboratories. In 2015 the University of Pisa included these programs within its educational programs. Accordingly, Summer School students are enrolled at the University of Pisa for the duration of the internship and are identified and ensured as such. At the end of the internship, the students are required to write summary reports on their achievements. After positive evaluation by a University Examining Board, interns are acknowledged credits for their Diploma Supplement. The program was canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic but restarted successfully in 2022. We believe this program can be taken as a model and easily adopted by interested institutions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Game Theory in Cybersecurity: A Review of Applications, Models, and Challenges

There are no aspects of society left unchanged by the Internet. From commerce to communication, from entertainment to engineering, every industry and sphere of influence exists in a new state thanks to the advent of the information age. This convenience, rarely controverted, comes with capricious actors, who wish to gain access to these systems for myriad reasons, be it financial, political, or mere intellectual gain. This paper presents information that can help readers to better understand the fundamentals of cybersecurity from a game theory perspective, such as coalitional games, Colonel Blotto systems, or how to find Nash Equilibrium. This paper also reviews how game theory can enhance understanding of cybersecurity through cooperative and non-cooperative methods, such as information sharing, defense modeling, and attacker analysis. The authors use the analysis to serve as a bridge for those in either field who need a way to best comprehend the methodologies of their contrasting fields.

Egan, Matthew↗

Analysis of Supply Chain Challenges in the U.S. Solar Industry: Focus on Build America, Buy America Act and Inverter Supply Issues

The United States (U.S.) solar industry has been undergoing significant transformation, driven largely by meeting U.S. climate goals while simultaneously maintaining national security. At the forefront of this movement is the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act. The IRA has driven investment in clean energy generation deployments while the BABA Act, enacted under Division G, Title IX of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) establishes domestic content procurement preference for all federal financial assistance obligated for infrastructure projects. While these pieces of legislation aim to reduce reliance on foreign-made solar components and increase domestic production, the sector continues to face notable supply chain challenges. These are particularly pronounced with inverters, a critical component in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. This report explores the current state of these supply chain challenges, with a specific focus on the impact of the BABA requirements and the associated complexities in inverter manufacturing and supply.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case

Poster on “CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. The cost of designing, permitting, constructing, operating, and closing a CO2 storage project is of vital importance to project developers. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) Model to provide quantitative cost-based insights to support developers planning CO2 injection and storage projects. This study presents a collaborative economic analysis applying TALES with data from the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III project led by the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology to estimate potential costs incurred during the implementation of a real-world commercial-scale carbon storage project. Scenario analysis was implemented in which different operational and cost attributes were varied and the associated cost implications observed. Key results data and project cost summary metrics, first-year breakeven price of CO2 ($/tonne) and net present value (NPV), are presented for base and alternative cases. Output provides a unique perspective for project stakeholders towards evaluating the influence of different operational strategies and financing approaches on overall project cost and financial viability.

carbon storage↗

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

Solar thermal plant impact analysis and requirements definition

Progress on a continuing study comprising of ten tasks directed at defining impact and requirements for solar thermal power systems (SPS), 1 to 10 MWe each in capacity, installed during 1985 through year 2000 in a utility or a nonutility load in the United States is summarized. The point focus distributed receiver (PFDR) solar power systems are emphasized. Tasks 1 through 4, completed to date, include the development of a comprehensive data base on SPS configurations, their performance, cost, availability, and potential applications; user loads, regional characteristics, and an analytic methodology that incorporates the generally accepted utility financial planning methods and several unique modifications to treat the significant and specific characteristics of solar power systems deployed in either central or distributed power generation modes, are discussed.

Gupta, Y. P.↗

Software Tools Streamline Project Management

Three innovative software inventions from Ames Research Center (NETMARK, Program Management Tool, and Query-Based Document Management) are finding their way into NASA missions as well as industry applications. The first, NETMARK, is a program that enables integrated searching of data stored in a variety of databases and documents, meaning that users no longer have to look in several places for related information. NETMARK allows users to search and query information across all of these sources in one step. This cross-cutting capability in information analysis has exponentially reduced the amount of time needed to mine data from days or weeks to mere seconds. NETMARK has been used widely throughout NASA, enabling this automatic integration of information across many documents and databases. NASA projects that use NETMARK include the internal reporting system and project performance dashboard, Erasmus, NASA s enterprise management tool, which enhances organizational collaboration and information sharing through document routing and review; the Integrated Financial Management Program; International Space Station Knowledge Management; Mishap and Anomaly Information Reporting System; and management of the Mars Exploration Rovers. Approximately $1 billion worth of NASA s projects are currently managed using Program Management Tool (PMT), which is based on NETMARK. PMT is a comprehensive, Web-enabled application tool used to assist program and project managers within NASA enterprises in monitoring, disseminating, and tracking the progress of program and project milestones and other relevant resources. The PMT consists of an integrated knowledge repository built upon advanced enterprise-wide database integration techniques and the latest Web-enabled technologies. The current system is in a pilot operational mode allowing users to automatically manage, track, define, update, and view customizable milestone objectives and goals. The third software invention, Query-Based Document Management (QBDM) is a tool that enables content or context searches, either simple or hierarchical, across a variety of databases. The system enables users to specify notification subscriptions where they associate "contexts of interest" and "events of interest" to one or more documents or collection(s) of documents. Based on these subscriptions, users receive notification when the events of interest occur within the contexts of interest for associated document or collection(s) of documents. Users can also associate at least one notification time as part of the notification subscription, with at least one option for the time period of notifications.

Source record↗

Merefa Community Microgrid: Conceptual Design and Sequence of Operations [Slides]

A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. The report includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Connecting Research and Practice: An Experience Report on Research Infusion with SAVE

NASA systems need to be highly dependable to avoid catastrophic mission failures. This calls for rigorous engineering processes including meticulous validation and verification. However, NASA systems are often highly distributed and overwhelmingly complex, making the software portion of these systems challenging to understand, maintain, change, reuse, and test. NASA's systems are long-lived and the software maintenance process typically constitutes 60-80% of the total cost of the entire lifecycle. Thus, in addition to the technical challenges of ensuring high life-time quality of NASA's systems, the post-development phase also presents a significant financial burden. Some of NASA's software-related challenges could potentially be addressed by some of the many powerful technologies that are being developed in software research laboratories. Many of these research technologies seek to facilitate maintenance and evolution by for example architecting, designing and modeling for quality, flexibility, and reuse. Other technologies attempt to detect and remove defects and other quality issues by various forms of automated defect detection, architecture analysis, and various forms of sophisticated simulation and testing. However promising, most such research technologies nevertheless do not make the transition from the research lab to the software lab. One reason the transition from research to practice seldom occurs is that research infusion and technology transfer is difficult. For example, factors related to the technology are sometimes overshadowed by other types of factors such as reluctance to change and therefore prohibits the technology from sticking. Successful infusion might also take very long time. One famous study showed that the discrepancy between the conception of the idea and its practical use was 18 years plus or minus three. Nevertheless, infusing new technology is possible. We have found that it takes special circumstances for such research infusion to succeed: 1) there must be evidence that the technology works in the practitioner's particular domain, 2) there must be a potential for great improvements and enhanced competitive edge for the practitioner, 3) the practitioner has to have strong individual curiosity and continuous interest in trying out new technologies, 4) the practitioner has to have support on multiple levels (i.e. from the researchers, from management, from sponsors etc), and 5) to remain infused, the new technology has to be integrated into the practitioner's processes so that it becomes a natural part of the daily work. NASA IV&V's Research Infusion initiative sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety & Mission Assurance (OSMA) through the Software Assurance Research Program (SARP), strives to overcome some of the problems related to research infusion.

Lindvall, Mikael↗