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At least 163 records · Page 9

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗

Wintertime Overnight NOx Removal in a Southeastern United States Coal-Fired Power Plant Plume: A Model for Understanding Winter NOx Processing and Its Implications

Nitric oxide (NO) is emitted in large quantities from coal-burning power plants. During the day, the plumes from these sources are efficiently mixed into the boundary layer, while at night, they may remain concentrated due to limited vertical mixing during which they undergo horizontal fanning. At night, the degree to which NO is converted to HNO3 and therefore unable to participate in next-day ozone (O3) formation depends on the mixing rate of the plume, the composition of power plant emissions, and the composition of the background atmosphere. In this study, we use observed plume intercepts from the Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions and Reactivity (WINTER) campaign to test sensitivity of overnight NOx removal to the N2O5 loss rate constant, plume mixing rate, background O3, and background levels of volatile organic compounds using a 2-D box model of power plant plume transport and chemistry. The factor that exerted the greatest control over NOx removal was the loss rate constant of N2O5. At the lowest observed N2O5 loss rate constant, no other combination of conditions converts more than 10 percent of the initial NOx to HNO3. The other factors did not influence NOx removal to the same degree.

air quality↗

Safety Related Considerations in Autonomy

In this talk I will describe NASA strategy and research efforts to provide safety assurance for increasingly autonomous systems used in aviation. In the near future, autonomy will play an important role in civil aviation, and its applications will range from vehicles and platforms (UAVs, transport-class, including supersonic to hypersonic, aircraft) to airspace operations, or health management systems. This infusion of autonomy is driven by a need for optimizing airspace operations to accommodate increasing traffic density (e.g., adaptive trajectory-based operations, autonomous tugs, close parallel runways, and dynamic separation assurance), reducing operation costs to ensure that US operators can compete with emergent countries, and enabling new business models (e.g., fire fighting, UAS-based package delivery and precise aerial photography). In essence virtually every component of the National Airspace System will become increasingly autonomous. Yet we need to do so in a safe manner and have techniques and processes in place to ensure the safety of the public. This talk describes NASA plans to address this problem

Air Traffic Management↗

The System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO)

NASA's Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project aims to leverage Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and UAS Traffic Management (UTM) to improve asset coordination and overall emergency response. One application of STEReO is wildfire response, which is the focus of this research. In order to implement the operations described in the STEReO project, these additions must have tangible benefits and proven safety. To this end, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in STEReO (SMARt-STEReO) project constructs a simulation model, developed through the Python modeling and resiliency analysis package fmdtools. The model describes wildfire response operations, including current operational concepts and emerging concepts utilizing UAS as described in STEReO. While previous simulation models focus primarily on fire propagation with some models including emergency response intervention, SMART-STEReO evaluates the system performance and resilience benefits gained by the addition of UAS and UTM. Due to the novelty and complexity of the model, initial model verification and validation efforts are conducted and a detailed description of the model is provided. Preliminary results from experimental analysis on the SMARt-STEReO model indicate that when compared to current operations, the addition of UAS in wildfire operations results in improved response efforts, in terms of fewer acres burned, as well as improved system resilience in response to a given fault.

Sequoia Andrade↗

Combined Experimental and Modeling Study of the Interactions of Acid Gas with Common Spacecraft Surfaces for Fire Safety Applications

A fire in a spacecraft poses detrimental consequences and risks mission success in addition to crew safety. This is compounded during long-duration missions when the crew has limited options to recover from a fire. A common spacecraft fire concern is the smoldering of wire insulation, typically made from Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or Polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE). This creates acid gases such as Hydrogen Chloride (HCl), Hydrogen Fluoride (HF) and Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN). These poisonous gases are hazardous to the crew. They also interact with common surfaces within the spacecraft more than dominant combustion products such as CO2 and H2O. This makes them more difficult to track for potential fire detection techniques, or for postfire clean-up. It is imperative to be able to understand and predict the fate of these poisonous species in a microgravity environment in order to design a safe vehicle. HCl interacts with a number of materials inside a spacecraft. Primary among these materials is aluminum, which is abundantly used due to its strong and light weight nature. Aluminum has a natural oxide layer that protects it from corrosion but is typically treated to enhance this oxide layer. Among these treatments is a chromate conversion coating (CCC), which provides a thin enough protective oxide layer to still conduct electricity, and a traditional anodized material that has a thicker oxide layer that does not conduct electricity. Nomex is another common material found inside a spacecraft. It is a flame-resistant woven polymer that is related to nylon. This commercially available material is used for cargo storage bags and as a fire barrier. Physics-based models were developed to predict the uptake of HCl by these materials. The ultimate objective of these models is to predict the fate of HCl within the spacecraft so that sensors can be placed in meaningful locations in future missions based on the model predictions. To support these modeling efforts, experiments were performed in a cast acrylic test cell that measured the difference between the inlet and outlet concentration of HCl after inserting a sample rod of the test material. Different uptake capacities were realized for each type of sample tested. A computational fluid dynamics model (CFD) model of the reactor was then constructed that used a one-step global reaction rate with calibratable reaction (or kinetic) constants. These constants were calibrated to match the HCl uptake on the CCC aluminum samples, and the same kinetic constants were then tested for the stock and anodized aluminum samples. Model predictions matched the experimental data for the stock aluminum, and to a much lesser extent, the anodized aluminum. The model was additionally validated at different flow rates, sample surface areas, and inlet concentrations, and showed good agreement for all stock and CCC samples. The model did not accurately predict the HCl uptake in the anodized samples compared to the other two types of aluminum. Adjusting the kinetic constants and transport properties did little to improve the prediction. X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was used to determine that the oxide layer thickness of anodized aluminum is approximately 5,000 nm, compared to 250 nm for CCC and 50 nm for stock. XPS also revealed presence of chlorine further down in the aluminum oxide layer in anodized samples than CCC and stock samples after the samples were saturated with HCl, indicating that accounting for diffusion of HCl into the oxide layer is important for accurate prediction of HCl uptake onto anodized aluminum. Consequently, a multi-scale model was developed and tested. First, a single pore inside the anodized aluminum oxide layer was modeled and is referred to as the pore-scale model. In this model, HCl diffused through the pore and reacted with the aluminum oxide pore wall to create aluminum chloride. The sample was then saturated when the mass transfer resistance through the growing aluminum chloride layer became too large for the HCl to reach the aluminum oxide wall and continue the reaction. This pore-scale model was coupled to the reactor-scale model using a concentration-dependent diffusion coefficient, resulting in much more accurate predictions (approximately half the sum square error of the aforementioned reactor-scale model that produced good agreement for stock and CCC) for a variety of operating conditions. The amount of water vapor or relative humidity (RH) in the flow during a reactor experiment was determined to influence HCl uptake. Experiments were performed to understand the interaction of gaseous HCl with aluminum surfaces in the presence of water vapor. The results show that increasing levels of RH increased the capacity of aluminum to adsorb HCl but decreased the capacity of Nomex to uptake HCl. A series of tests were performed on individual aluminum samples after they had been saturated with a fixed concentration of HCl in dry air conditions with the goal of determining how their HCl uptake capacity changes after various treatments with water relative to the original saturation tests. HCl-saturated aluminum samples subjected to a second dry air flow at the same HCl concentration as the original test had an uptake of 23.5% of the original sample with no treatment in between. Saturated aluminum samples subjected to an air flow with a RH of 90% in between tests had an uptake of 35.6% of the original. Saturated aluminum samples submerged in distilled water for 12 hours in between tests had an uptake of 82.2% of the original sample. Previously saturated aluminum tested with HCl and a 50% RH air flow resulted in similar uptake characteristics in multiple repeated tests. The experiments show the profound effect water vapor has on HCl uptake onto aluminum surfaces. In the samples subjected to water vapor or liquid water, capillary condensation and capillary diffusion alters the transport of HCl significantly. A model was proposed that developed a relationship between RH and the coefficient of HCl diffusion in aluminum chloride. This produced an “S-shaped” curve with diffusion coefficient as a function of RH, with 45% RH represented as the point where the diffusion coefficient is halfway between no water saturation and 100% water saturation in the aluminum chloride product layer. No difference in uptake characteristics for the experiment or model were realized between 50% and 62% RH. The results from the large-scale microgravity experiment, Saffire, are discussed as they pertain to the fate of HCl throughout a spacecraft. HCl was released, both as a standalone event, and in concurrence with the burning of a structured cloth. These events only produced a small response in the far field HCl sensor, while a PMMA burn that did not produce HCl had a significantly greater response. A ground-based large-scale facility was constructed to flow acid gas at the scale and configuration realized in the Saffire experiments. A CFD model of this duct was constructed to test kinetic parameters developed in this work at a larger scale and different geometric configuration and to predict the results of the large-scale facility. The models developed in this work were used to interpret the results of the microgravity tests and lead the discussion on what further experiments and models are needed in order to predict the fate of acid gas in a spacecraft environment. To summarize, the major contributions of this work are as follows: the capacity to uptake HCl, with and without the presence of water vapor, was measured for a variety of real spacecraft surfaces. Several different models (single reactor-scale, multiscale, spacecraft-scale) were developed and with the aid of modeling, the rate of uptake for those surfaces was also predicted and validated. The kinetic parameters determined from the small-scale reactor experiments and models were used to predict large-scale and microgravity tests. Conclusions from this research will be used in the design of spacecraft vehicles and large-scale microgravity fire safety experiments. The models built by this work will aid designers in sensor placement and could be used to predict acid gas transport from fires in partial gravity, as would be seen in Lunar and Martian habitats.

fire safety↗

Fire in the Brazilian Amazon: A Spatially Explicit Model for Policy Impact Analysis

This article implements a spatially explicit model to estimate the probability of forest and agricultural fires in the Brazilian Amazon. We innovate by using variables that reflect farmgate prices of beef and soy, and also provide a conceptual model of managed and unmanaged fires in order to simulate the impact of road paving, cattle exports, and conservation area designation on the occurrence of fire. Our analysis shows that fire is positively correlated with the price of beef and soy, and that the creation of new conservation units may offset the negative environmental impacts caused by the increasing number of fire events associated with early stages of frontier development.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Wildfire Smoke Forecasts from Multiple Modeling Systems for the 2019 Williams Flats Fire

Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.

AOD↗

The Future of Oaks in the Santa Monica Mountains: A Case Study in Using Remote Sensing Data for Species Distributions Models

The Woolsey Fire began on November 8, 2018, and lasted for almost two weeks, during which it burned almost 100,000 acres of valuable landscape and habitat, including a vast area of woodland. The persistence of key woodland species provides aesthetic, monetary, and ecological value to the landscape through carbon sequestration, air temperature moderation, and erosion mitigation, among other ecosystem services. This study investigated the impact of the Woolsey Fire on native woodland species distributions and identified areas suitable for restoration within the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area. The team partnered with the Resource Conservation District of the Santa Monica Mountains; National Park Service, Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area; California Department of Parks and Recreation, Los Angeles County Division; County of Los Angeles Fire Department, Prevention Services Bureau, Forestry Division; County of Los Angeles Department of Regional Planning; and the University of Montana. The Earth observations used include data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, NASA ER-2 Jet Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and RapidEye. The team produced maps of burn severity from the Woolsey Fire, its impact on plant species distributions, and habitat suitability projections for 2050 and 2099 to assist partners in prioritizing areas for restoration. A plant community classification was successfully created using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA). Overall accuracy was assessed at 90.54% by comparing the classification to validation pixels derived from ground truth information provided by our partners.

Roger Ly↗

Findings of a review of spacecraft fire safety needs

Discussions from a workshop to guide UCLA and NASA investigators on the state of knowledge and perceived needs in spacecraft fire safety and its risk management are reviewed, for an introduction to an analytical and experimental project in this field. The report summarizes the workshop discussions and includes the visual aids used in the presentations. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods, which are currently not used, would be of great value to the designs and operation of future human-crew spacecraft. Key points in the discussions were the importance of understanding and testing smoldering as a likely fire scenario in space and the need for smoke damage modeling, since many fire-risk models ignore this mechanism and consider only heat damage.

Apostolakis, G. E.↗

Measurement of the spatial dependence of temperature and gas and soot concentrations within large open hydrocarbon fuel fires

A series of large-scale JP-4 fuel pool fire tests was conducted to refine existing mathematical models of large fires. Seven tests were conducted to make chemical concentration and temperature measurements in 7.5 and 15 meter-diameter pool fires. Measurements were made at heights of 0.7, 1.4, 2.9, 5.7, 11.4, and 21.3 meters above the fires. Temperatures were measured at up to 50 locations each second during the fires. Chemistry samples were taken at up to 23 locations within the fires and analyzed for combustion chemistry and soot concentration. Temperature and combustion chemistry profiles obtained during two 7.5 meter-diameter and two 15 meter-diameter fires are included.

Johnson, H. T.↗

Evaluating crown scorch predictions from a computational fluid dynamics wildland fire simulator

Abstract Background Crown scorch—the heating of live leaves, needles, and buds in the vegetative canopy to lethal temperatures without widespread combustion—is one of the most common fire effects shaping post-fire canopies. Despite the ability of computational fluid dynamic models to finely resolve fire activity and buoyant plume dynamics including heterogenous 3D distributions of forest canopy heating, these models have had only limited use in simulating fire effects and have not been used to evaluate crown scorch. Here, we demonstrate a method of evaluating crown scorch using a computational fluid dynamics model, FIRETEC, and validate this approach by simulating the experiments that were used to develop Van Wagner’s 1973 crown scorch model. Results The average scorch height prediction from FIRETEC compares well with the empirical model derived by Van Wagner, which is the most widely used empirical model for crown scorch. We further find that the 3D buoyant plume dynamics from a steady and homogeneous idealized heat source on the ground results in a spatially heterogenous crown scorch pattern reflecting complex heating dynamics that are best represented by percent scorch rather than height of scorch. Conclusions The ability of the computational fluid dynamics model to capture variation in crown scorch due to 3D buoyant plume dynamics provides direct links between forest structure, fire behavior, and fire effects that can be used by forest managers and researchers to better understand how fires result in crown damage under various environmental and management scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ensemble PM2.5 Forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire Event Using the HYSPLIT Transport and Dispersion Model

Biomass burning releases a vast amount of aerosols into the atmosphere, often leading to severe air quality and health problems. Prediction of the air quality effects from biomass burning emissions is challenging due to uncertainties in fire emission, plume rise calculation, and other model inputs/processes. Ensemble forecasting is increasingly used to represent model uncertainties. In this paper, an ensemble forecast was conducted to predict surface PM2.5 during the 2018 California Camp Fire event using the NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model at 0.1- degree horizontal resolution. Different combinations of four satellite-based fire emission datasets (FEER, FLAMBE, GBBEPx and GFAS), two plume rise schemes (Briggs and Sofiev), various meteorology inputs and model setup options were used to create the forecast ensemble, for a total of 112 experiments. The performance of each ensemble member and the ensemble mean were evaluated using ground-based observations, with four statistical metrics and an overall rank. The ensemble spread of the 112 members reached 1000 μg/m3, highlighting the large uncertainty in wildfire forecast. The ensemble mean displayed the best performance. Each fire emission product contributed to one or more members among the top ten performers, revealing the forecasting dependence on both the quality of fire emissions data and model representation of emission, transport and removal processes. In addition, an ensemble size reduction technique was introduced. With the help of this technique, the ensemble size was reduced from 112 to 28 members and still produced an ensemble mean that yielded comparable or even better performance to that of the full ensemble.

Biomass Burning↗

Mortality attributable to PM 2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM 2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM 2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM 2.5 , applying ZIP code–level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM 2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $\$432$ to $\$456$ billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Uptake of Hydrogen Chloride onto Interior Spacecraft Materials

Hydrogen chloride (HCl) is a major combustion product from the pyrolysis of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) insulated electrical wires, a common spacecraft fire safety concern. Models at two different scales were developed to predict HCl uptake on anodized, chromate conversion coated (Iridite), and bare aluminum surfaces, as well as on Nomex fabric: a macroscopic one-step global surface reaction model where all the active sites are on the exterior surface, and a pore model where the interior active sites deeper into the oxide layer can also be accessed by HCl. Experiments were performed to calibrate kinetic and diffusion constants in the models. A cast acrylic test cell was used to measure the differences between the inlet and outlet concentration of HCl after inserting a sample rod of the test material. For the materials with a thin (< 200 µm) or no oxide layer, the macroscopic surface reaction model adequately predicts the experimental measurements. For the anodized aluminum with a thicker oxide layer, the pore model provided a better match to experimental results. The results will be discussed with respect to the spacecraft fire safety project (Saffire).

modeling↗

Big Bend Ecological Forecasting: Integrating Earth Observations Into Invasive Species Management Decisions in Big Bend National Park in Texas

Located in Brewster County Texas, U.S., along the Texas-Mexico border, Big Bend National Park is 3,243 square kilometers of desert, mountains, and rivers. NASA’s MSFC Spring 2024 DEVELOP Team partnered with the National Park Service (NPS), to address the environmental concern of perineal invasive grasses in Big Bend National Park. Buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), introduced to the park in the 1940’s, poses an ongoing threat, and causes habitat destruction for many of the park’s native ecosystems. Buffelgrass amplifies fire risk in the park, aids in the destruction of historic structures, and alters stream channels. To address the rising concern of Buffelgrass presence, unique advanced spatial technique applications were necessary to construct a habitat suitability model and perform a comprehensive fire risk assessment. A habitat suitability model was developed considering climate, vegetation, and phenological variables, in addition to physical and topographical variables. Subsequently, a fire risk model was developed, taking into account fire history data, accessibility factors, climate trends and predictions, along with developed areas. Multi-Source Land Surface Phenology (LSP) Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) imagery were used to predict Buffelgrass hotspot locations throughout the park. These analyses allowed the identification of optimal Buffelgrass habitat and hotspot locations, as well as park zones that reflect the greatest risk for future Buffelgrass invasion and fire risk. The collective results of the habitat suitability model, fire risk assessment, and Buffelgrass hot spot identification will allow the NPS to facilitate efficient mitigation measures and management strategies, and improved resource allocation where it’s most needed.

remote sensing↗

An Overview of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulated Cloud Ice, Radiation Fields, Surface Wind Stress, Sea Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

The potential links between ice water path (IWP), radiation, circulation, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans resulting from the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) are examined from present day model outputs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. The latter is divided into two subsets with (SON6) and without FIREs (NOS6) as more models with FIREs are included in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Improvement in floating cloud ice (~20 g m-2) is noticeable over convective regions in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. The inclusion of FIREs in SON6 subset may contribute to reduce biases of overestimated outgoing longwave radiation and downward surface shortwave and overestimated reflected shortwave at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by magnitudes of 4?8 W m-2 over convective regions against CERES, compared to NOS6 subset. The reduced biases in radiative fluxes in convective regions stabilize the atmosphere and lead to circulation, SST, cloud and precipitation changes over the trade-wind regions, as seen from improved radiative fluxes (4?15 W m-2), surface wind stress biases, SST (0.2?0.8 K) and precipitation (1 mm day-1) biases. The significant improvement from NOS6 to SON6 leads to improved multi-model means for CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 for radiation fields over the trade wind regions but the degradation over convective zones is attributed to NOS6 subset. The results suggest that other sources of uncertainty and deficiencies in climate models may play significant roles for reducing discrepancies although FIREs, via radiation-circulation coupling, may be one of the factors that help to reduce regional biases.

Jui-Lin F Li↗