Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “flexibility metric”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Multitude Characterization and Prediction of DOE Advanced Biofuels Properties

Advanced multitude of experiments ranging from the liquid fuel to combustion are conducted on Co-OPTIMA fuels to aid the characterization of the fuels. The series of targeted experiments characterized Co-OPTIMA fuel spray atomization, flame topology, flame speed, autoignition, volatility, viscosity, soot/coking, and compatibility. The fuels are selected and prioritized based on input from national lab members. The research characterized and predicted biomass-based, low greenhouse gas fuels and blends combustion, autoignition, and physical properties of mixtures of identified compounds at engine-relevant conditions, in particular those properties that blend non-linearly. The main challenge of Co-OPTIMA is the evaluation of a variety of biofuels and blends in all the reaction conditions that might be encountered in new high-efficiency engines. Despite the improved high-throughput experimental techniques, it seems unlikely that all of the performance metrics could be measured for all relevant petroleum derived, bio-derived molecules and mixtures, and reaction conditions. A series of targeted experiments ranging from the liquid fuel to the combustion process is required, and to extract the maximum information from each experiment. These targeted experiments evaluated how a specific fuel will perform in an engine. The series of targeted experiments are as follows: (a) Spray Atomization, Vaporization and Droplet Formation (b) Combustion Flame and Local Fuel/Air Image-Based Measurements (c) Laminar Flame Speed Measurements (d) Autoignition and Soot Measurements (e) Synchrotron Coupled Fundamental Autoignition Experiments (f) Fuel Coking and Hot Surface Deposit g) Fuel Volatility Measurements (h) Viscosity Measurements (i) Seal Flexible Fuel Compatibility These experimental processes provide an essential pathway for the prediction of fuel behaviors in engines and systematic process for fuel down select.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DINGO: Digital assistant to grid operators for resilience management of power distribution system

With increasing adverse weather events and disasters, enabling resiliency of the power distribution system (PDS) is becoming increasingly important. Here in this work, resiliency is defined as the systems ability to keep supplying critical loads even with multiple contingencies. Resiliency may depend on: (a) advanced tools to assist operators in situational awareness and decision making with the increasing volume of data generated by the PDS, (b) visualization and ease of interaction with system resources and information, especially during extreme events and resulting human operator stress, and (c) flexible resources and autonomous control. Operators and support engineers need to interact with the system for key information and take action under stress, given the requirement for decisions in a short time. Integrated technological solutions are prevailing steps to support the most appropriate decision during critical times to serve essential loads. In order to meet the required goals, a Real-time Resiliency Monitoring and Operational Decision Support (RT-RMOD) tool have been developed. It supports various functionalities, including real-time monitoring, resilience assessment, and proactive decision support. However, this work makes advanced feature additions to the tool by developing data-enabled resilience management algorithms for (i) outage detection and localization, (ii) Resiliency-metric driven restoration and reconfiguration, and (iii) NLP based digital assistant for operators called DINGO (DIgital assistaNt to Grid Operators) to interact with Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) and RT-RMOD. The developed algorithm was validated for multiple cases of weather events using a real-world, off-grid microgrid system modeled in a real-time simulator, sensor data, and software tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multi-Dimensional Benefit Assessment of Automated Mobility Platforms (AMP) for Large Facilities

Automated Mobility Platform (AMP) is a general term for intelligently managed passenger mobility systems that leverage automation and electrification to improve system performance and sustainability through the integration of real-time data streams with advanced decision-making processes tailored for use in large facilities. Using airports as an example, the rapid growth in air travel demand has led to facility expansions and congested terminals, which directly impacts equity (e.g., increased challenges for passengers with reduced mobility [PRMs]) and sustainability - both of which are important metrics often neglected during the engineering design process. Therefore, to evaluate systems and inform critical decisions more effectively, a holistic evaluation framework is proposed that includes equity, sustainability, and infrastructure perspectives - referred to as a multidimensional benefit assessment. More specifically, the following analysis focuses on: (1) mobility, with emphasis on travel time and accessibility within an airport, contrasting existing systems with the proposed AMP system; (2) equity analysis, specifically to the PRM community, but with an eye to the whole of society; (3) energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with intra-airport mobility, comparing and contrasting modes as well as impacts on overall airport operations efficiency; and (4) fundamental changes in building design enabled by AMPs for larger and more flexible, functional, and energy-efficient structures.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation: Preprint

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with bottom-fixed models. In this investigation, several different foundation geometries were simulated using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure towards the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance Modeling of a Variable-Geometry Oscillating Surge Wave Energy Converter on a Raised Foundation

This paper analyzes the power capture potential, structural loadings, and costs associated with an oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) operating on a raised foundation. The raised OSWEC offers opportunities for reduced installation costs, improved energy production, and greater flexibility of deployment when compared with fixed-bottom models. In this investigation, we simulated several different foundation geometries using WEC-Sim to estimate power capture and structural loads. In an effort to maximize power capture, several cases in which flat plates of varying size were attached to the top of the foundation, under and parallel with the OSWEC, were also simulated. These plates were found to enhance power capture by preventing the wave-induced pressure from passing underneath the OSWEC, diverting this pressure toward the OSWEC instead. The OSWEC was simulated in the six Wave Energy Prize sea states, which were chosen as a representative sample of U.S. deployment sites. A first-order estimate of structural costs was calculated using the Wave Energy Prize ACE metric, with the foundation comprised predominantly of steel-reinforced concrete and the OSWEC comprised of A36 steel. Influence of foundation geometry on power capture, structural loadings, and ACE are topics of particular interest. This work has been inspired by advances in large-scale additive manufacturing techniques that have the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of subsea foundations. These advancements may enable cost-effective WEC systems to be deployed on raised foundations.

cost↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Table Analysis for Thermal Energy Storage Technologies Integration with Advanced Nuclear Reactors

This report provides an overview of the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of thermal energy storage (TES) systems for possible integration with various types of advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs). Advanced NPPs will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. TES systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This report explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research developed a PIRT of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions (defined herein in as figures of merit [FOMs]), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies’ compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Information-entropy-driven generation of material-agnostic datasets for machine-learning interatomic potentials

In contrast to their empirical counterparts, machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIAPs) promise to deliver near-quantum accuracy over broad regions of configuration space. However, due to their generic functional forms and extreme flexibility, they can catastrophically fail to capture the properties of novel, out-of-sample configurations, making the quality of the training set a determining factor, especially when investigating materials under extreme conditions. We propose a novel automated dataset generation method based on the maximization of the information entropy of the feature distribution, aiming at an extremely broad coverage of the configuration space in a way that is agnostic to the properties of specific target materials. The ability of the dataset to capture unique material properties is demonstrated on a range of unary materials, including elements with the FCC (Al), BCC (W), HCP (Be, Re and Os), graphite (C), and trigonal (Sb, Te) ground states. MLIAPs trained to this dataset are shown to be accurate over a range of application-relevant metrics, as well as extremely robust over very broad swaths of configurations space, even without dataset fine-tuning or hyper-parameter optimization, making the approach extremely attractive to rapidly and autonomously develop general-purpose MLIAPs suitable for simulations in extreme conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mapping thermal energy storage technologies with advanced nuclear reactors

Advanced nuclear power plants (NPPs) will potentially need to operate in environments where power generation flexibility is more highly valued than the stability or baseload generation capability for conventional demand curves. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems would enable NPPs to respond nimbly to market variability and could also position advanced NPPs to participate differently in restructured markets, thus further enhancing their economic competitiveness. TES systems could also benefit the electric grid by eliminating the need for peaking plants, as well as by improving the economic performance of baseload NPPs. While TES technologies afford a unique opportunity to address many of these challenges, the applicability of these systems is also complicated by the fact that various advanced NPPs are designed differently, each with its own temperature range, size, operating fluids, and operating conditions. Hence, TES systems face significant barriers to investment, as more information on their compatibility and performance metrics is needed to quantify the advantages provided by each, as well as the challenges these technologies might face if coupled with a particular type of advanced NPP. This study explores the possibility of integrating a wide variety of TES technologies with various categories of advanced NPPs, based on their operating characteristics. To help decision makers, users and developers decide which TES technology is best suited to a particular category of advanced NPPs, this research present a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis of 10 TES systems that could potentially be coupled with advanced NPPs, which themselves are divided into nine categories based on their operating conditions. Then, each advanced NPP category is evaluated for compatibility with the 10 TES systems by assembling and discussing a database of information concerning 10 engineering questions, defined herein in as figures of merit (FOMs), such as: technology readiness level (TRL), temperature compatibility, energy density, size, cycle frequency, ramp time, realignment frequency, geographic needs, environmental impact, and interventions. By assembling a database of information concerning the TES technologies' compatibility with various advanced NPP systems, this study can help developers acquaint themselves with a particular TES technology before choosing to build a new integrated installation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?

Abstract We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation for this study is to test a long-held assumption of the shared socio-economic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario framework: that the signal from LUC can be safely disregarded when pairing different SSPs to the compatible RCPs, where compatibility only considers global radiative forcing, predominantly determined by well-mixed greenhouse gasses emissions. We analyze extremes of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation, after fitting non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in a way that borrows strength along the length of the simulation (2015–2100) and across initial condition ensembles. We consider changes in the 20 year return levels (RL20s) of these metrics by 2100, and focus on eight locations where LUC is large within each scenario, and strongly differs between scenarios, averaging the RL20s over a neighborhood characterized by the same LUC to enhance the signal to noise. We find that precipitation extremes do not show significant differences attributable to LUC differences. For temperature extremes (cold and hot) results are mixed, with some location-index combination showing significant results for some of the ESMs but not all, and not many coherent changes appearing for indices across regions, or regions across indices. These ESMs are representative of what is typically adopted as the source of climate information for impact studies, when the SSP-RCP framework is put to use. Overall, our analysis suggests that the hypothesis to pair SSPs to RCPs in a flexible fashion is overall defensible. However, the appearance of some coherence in a few locations and for some indices invites further investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2027

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Effectiveness of FLEX Strategies Using a CDF-Based Importance Measure Under Accident Conditions

One of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) accident is strengthening the station blackout (SBO) mitigation capabilities by enhancing defense in depth for all existing and new NPPs. One of the possible remedies is diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX). The objective of this study is to address the benefits of FLEX in various accident scenarios in terms of both risk and cost. FLEX was originally devised against SBO accidents. In this research, we investigate the fundamental plant responses against accidents considering two fundamentally different cases: accidents that lead to high pressure on the primary side and accidents that lead to low pressure on the primary side. Several uncertainties are associated with the characteristics of the FLEX portable equipment. Specifically, the time for FLEX deployment may depend on several factors such as type of accident, point of injection, availability of safety systems, battery backup timings, and human actions. This study utilizes a dynamic risk assessment framework to analyze accident scenarios and suggests a novel importance measure, which is a cumulative distribution function– based importance metric that characterizes the influence of input distribution on complete output distribution. The importance of the existing and newly developed FLEX strategy based on risk significance is illustrated with examples. The suggested measure provides clear insight into how FLEX affects risk of the whole system and additional risk margins thanks to new safety systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DSO+T: Valuation Methodology and Economic Metrics (DSO+T Study: Volume 4)

This report summarizes a rigorous valuation analysis methodology used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to estimate the financial benefits and costs of adopting Transactive Energy coordination of distributed energy resources for key stakeholders (for example distribution system operators and customers). This was achieved by modeling the value exchanges between stakeholders and determining the annualized costs and revenues experienced by stakeholders, enabling the evaluation of overall impact on stakeholder’s annualized cash flow. Extensive work was conducted developing methods to estimate the operating costs of distribution system operators at a level of granularity that would allow the financial impact of implementing a transactive energy approach to be estimated. This work included developing parametric models for labor and software costs, distribution system capital and maintenance costs, growth rates, and factors to determine annualized costs of capital investments. Simulation results were used to calculate wholesale energy costs and revenues from retail sales. Valuation analysis methods were also developed for other stakeholders including customers, the transmission system operator, independent system operator, and generators. The resulting capability allows a complete mapping of the flow of financial value between stakeholders that can be directly integrated with the results of demand flexibility simulations. Example results are provided for a business-as-usual case and compared to a transactive energy case as well as to actual cost data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

SYMBIOSYS: A Methodology for Performance Analysis of Composable HPC Data Services

Microservices are a powerful new way of building, customizing, and deploying distributed services owing to their flexibility and maintainability. Several large-scale distributed platforms have emerged to serve the growing needs of data-centric workloads and services in commercial computing. Concurrently, high-performance computing (HPC) systems and software are rapidly evolving to meet the demands of diversified applications and heterogeneity. The interplay of hardware factors, software configuration parameters, and the flexibility offered with a microservice architecture makes it nontrivial to estimate the optimal service instantiation for a given application workload. Further, this problem is exacerbated when considering that these services operate in a dynamic and heterogeneous HPC environment. An optimally integrated service can be vastly more performant than a haphazardly integrated one. Existing performance tools for HPC either fail to understand the request-response model of communication inherent to microservices or they operate within a narrow scope, limiting the insight that can be gleaned from employing them in isolation. We propose a methodology for integrated performance analysis of HPC microservices frameworks and applications called SYMBIOSYS. We describe its design and implementation within the context of the Mochi framework. This integration is achieved by combining distributed callpath profiling and tracing with a performance data exchange strategy that collects fine-grained, low-level metrics from the RPC communication library and network layers. The result is a portable, low-overhead performance analysis setup that provides a holistic profile of the dependencies among microservices and how they interact with the Mochi RPC software stack. Using HEPnOS, a production-quality Mochi data service, we demonstrate the low-overhead operation of SYMBIOSYS at scale and use it to identify the root causes of poorly performing service configurations.

microservices↗
DOE OSTI2021

VFA Biorefinery Design for Informed Production of Ground and Aviation Fuels

The rising demand for low-carbon intensity fuel options requires evaluation of a system which can support their production economically and sustainably. Volatile fatty acids (VFAs) ranging from C2 to C8 can be derived in high yield from arrested anaerobic digestion of biomass. This talk provides an overview of our work in which we upgrade wet waste-derived VFAs using ketonization to elongate their carbon backbone to reach a range relevant to jet or diesel fuels. Kinetic models were used to predict ketone profiles from varying VFA profiles, thereby informing potential carbon flow to either (a) mixed paraffins for use in diesel or aviation fuel, or (b) ethers for use in diesel fuel. To do this, the anticipated products were screened for critical fuel characteristics using predictive tools. The criteria for neat and blended bioblendstocks were chosen based on conventional petrofuel requirements, and they were applied to inform fuel targets, identify limiting characteristics, and guide conversion development. While paraffins can serve as either diesel or aviation fuels, the latter has stringent criteria which include a precise distillation curve range tied to carbon distribution. Fuels which fall outside this range typically fail to meet other property metrics, and as such flashpoint and viscosity were identified as potentially limiting properties of this VFA aviation fuel. However, paraffin fractions which fall outside aviation criteria may meet diesel fuel requirements, which are looser except for the flashpoint minimum. Flashpoint was also a concern for smaller VFA diesel ethers, which posed an additional oxygenate risk of high water solubility. This fuel-informed conversion design process was demonstrated through production of paraffins with reduced sooting as compared to petrodiesel (~34%), and increased renewable aviation fuel blend levels (>70%). VFA-derived ethers improved petrodiesel by increasing fuel autoignition quality by 56% and reducing sooting by 86%. These VFA aviation and diesel fuels could enable greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions of over 165% and 50%, respectively, relative to their purely fossil-derived counterparts. Collectively, this work provides (i) an overview of how we leveraged the flexibility of VFAs for fuel production; and (ii) insight into the potential of a VFA biorefinery to accommodate varied feed and fuel applications, while also considering the merit of tailored fuel production pathways and GHG reduction potential.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Stochastic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Algorithm for Dynamic Load Prioritization in Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Increasing deployment of advanced sensing, controls, and communication infrastructure enables buildings to provide services to the power grid, leading to the concept of grid-interactive efficient buildings. Since occupant activities and preferences primarily drive the availability and operational flexibility of building devices, there is a critical need to develop occupant-centric approaches that prioritize devices for providing grid services, while maintaining the desired end-use quality of service. In this paper, we present a decision-making framework that facilitates a building owner/operator to effectively prioritize loads for curtailment service under uncertainties, while minimizing any adverse impact on the occupants. The proposed framework uses a stochastic (Markov) model to represent the probabilistic behavior of device usage from power consumption data, and a load prioritization algorithm that dynamically ranks building loads using a stochastic multi-criteria decision-making algorithm. The proposed load prioritization framework is illustrated via numerical simulations in a residential building use-case, including plug-loads, air-conditioners, and plug-in electric vehicle chargers, in the context of load curtailment as a grid service. Suitable metrics are proposed to evaluate the closed-loop performance of the proposed prioritization algorithm under various scenarios and design choices. Scalability of the proposed algorithm is established via computational analysis, while time-series plots are used for intuitive explanation of the ranking choices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗