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At least 163 records · Page 9

Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

Richardson, T. B.↗

Recent advances and plans in processing and geocoding of SAR data at the DFD

Because of the needs of future projects like ENVISAT and the experiences made with the current operational ERS-1 facilities, a radical change in the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) processing scenarios can be predicted for the next years. At the German PAF several new developments were initialized which are driven mainly either by user needs or by system and operational constraints ('lessons learned'). At the end there will be a major simplification and uniformation of all used computer systems. Especially the following changes are likely to be implemented at the German PAF: transcription before archiving, processing of all standard products with high throughput directly at the receiving stations, processing of special 'high-valued' products at the PAF, usage of a single type of processor hardware, implementation of a large and fast on-line data archive, and improved and unified fast data network between the processing and archiving facilities. A short description of the current operational SAR facilities as well as the future implementations are given.

Noack, W.↗

Exercise Countermeasures Demonstration Project During the Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project Phase 2A

This demonstration project assessed the crew members' compliance to a portion of the exercise countermeasures planned for use onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and the outcomes of their performing these countermeasures. Although these countermeasures have been used separately in other projects and investigations, this was the first time they'd been used together for an extended period (60 days) in an investigation of this nature. Crew members exercised every day for six days, alternating every other day between aerobic and resistive exercise, and rested on the seventh day. On the aerobic exercise days, subjects exercised on an electronically braked cycle ergometer using a protocol that has been previously shown to maintain aerobic capacity in subjects exposed to a space flight analogue. On the resistive exercise days, crew members performed five major multijoint resistive exercises in a concentric mode, targeting those muscle groups and bones we believe are most severely affected by space flight. The subjects favorably tolerated both exercise protocols, with a 98% compliance to aerobic exercise prescription and a 91% adherence to the resistive exercise protocol. After 60 days, the crew members improved their peak aerobic capacity by an average 7%, and strength gains were noted in all subjects. These results suggest that these exercise protocols can be performed during ISS, lunar, and Mars missions, although we anticipate more frequent bouts with both protocols for long-duration spaceflight. Future projects should investigate the impact of increased exercise duration and frequency on subject compliance, and the efficacy of such exercise prescriptions.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗

Increases in Efficiency and Enhancements to the Mars Observer Non-stored Commanding Process

The Mars Observer team was, until the untimely loss of the spacecraft on August 21, 1993, performing flight operations with greater efficiency and speed than any previous JPL mission of its size. This level of through-put was made possible by a Mission Operations System which was composed of skilled personnel using sophisticated sequencing and commanding tools. During cruise flight operations, however, it was realized by the project that this commanding level was not going to be sufficient to support the activities planned for the mapping operations. The project had committed to providing the science instrument principle investigators with a much higher level of commanding during mapping. Thus, the project began taking steps to enhance the capabilities of the flight team. One mechanism used by project management was a tool available from Total Quality Management (TQM). This tool is known as a Process Action Team (PAT). The Mars Observer PAT was tasked to increase the capacity of the flight team's non-stored commanding process by fifty percent with no increase in staffing and a minimal increase in risk. The outcome of this effort was to, in fact, increase the capacity by a factor of 2.5 rather than the desired fifty percent and actually reduce risk. The majority of these improvements came from the automation of the existing command process. The results required very few changes to the existing mission operations system. Rather, the PAT was able to take advantage of automation capabilities inherent in the existing system and make changes to the existing flight team procedures. This paper will describe in detail the enhancements recommended by the PAT for the non-stored command generation process on Mars Observer. This will be contrasted with the process used by the flight team prior to implementation of these improvements. Finally, there will be a discussion of the applicability of the techniques devised by the PAT for enhancement of the non-stored command process to present and future projects.

Process↗

Historical (1700–2012) Global Multi-Model Estimates of the Fire Emissions from the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP)

Fire emissions are critical for carbon and nutrient cycles, climate, and air quality. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) with interactive fire modeling provide important estimates for long-term and large-scale changes of fire emissions. Here we present the first multi-model estimates of global gridded historical fire emissions for 1700-2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols. The dataset is based on simulations of nine DGVMs with different state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), using the same and standardized protocols and forcing data, and the most up-to-date fire emission factor table from field and laboratory studies over various land cover types. We evaluate the simulations of present-day fire emissions by comparing them with satellite-based products. Evaluation results show that most DGVMs simulate present-day global fire emission totals within the range of satellite-based products, and can capture the high emissions over the tropical savannas, low emissions over the arid and sparsely vegetated regions, and the main features of seasonality. However, most of the models fail to simulate the interannual variability, partly due to a lack of modeling peat fires and tropical deforestation fires. Historically, all models show only a weak trend in global fire emissions before ~1850s, consistent with multi-source merged historical reconstructions. The long-term trends among DGVMs are quite different for the 20th century, with some models showing an increase and others a decrease in fire emissions, mainly as a result of the discrepancy in their simulated responses to human population density change and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Our study provides a basic dataset for developing regional and global multi-source merged historical reconstructions and merging methods, and analyzing historical changes of fire emissions and their uncertainties as well as their role in the Earth system. It also highlights the importance of accurately modeling the responses of fire emissions to LULCC and population density change in reducing uncertainties in historical reconstructions of fire emissions and providing more reliable future projections.

Li, Fang↗

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗

Progress Report No. 3 on Studies in the Fields of Space Flight and Guidance Theory

This paper contains progress reports of NASA-sponsored studies in the areas of space flight theory and guidance theory. The studies are carried on by several universities and industrial companies. This progress report covers the period from June 15, 1962 to December 20, 1962. The technical supervisor of the contracts is W.E. Miner, Deputy Chief of the Future Projects Branch of Aeroballistics Division, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center.

SPACECRAFT GUIDANCE↗

Empire. a study of early manned interplanetary missions final report, may 26 - nov. 25, 1962

This report summarizes the investigations and results of the EMPIRE Study Program undertaken by Aeronutronic Division of Ford Motor Company for the Future Projects Office, Marshall Space Flight Center, under Contract NAS8-5025. The dual planet flyby missions of the Crocco and Symmetric trajectory classes are discussed. The Crocco mission with an August 1971 launch window requires an interplanetary injection velocity increment of i0.i km/sec, has a return velocity of 13.5 km/sec, and takes approximately 400 days. The Symmetric mission with a July 1970 launch window has an injection velocity increment of 5.3 km/sec, a return velocity of 15.8 km/sec, and takes approximately 630 days. Additional results of the trajectory studies and abort trajectories are reported. The guidance and navigation subsystem, midcourse corrections, and planetary approach corrections are discussed. A detailed analysis of the reentry phase of EMPIRE includes consideration of an Apollo-type, a Drag Brake, and a lifting-type reentry vehicle to return the six-man crew at mission completion or in an aborted condition. The High L/D reentry vehicle is used in the missions considered. The various technological areas required for design criteria are developed and several spacecraft designs are considered. The all chemical propulsion Crocco system is discarded due to weight, complexity, and cost. The nuclear injected Crocco is treated in a similar manner. The lower energy injection for the Symmetric Mission leads to the feasibility of a nuclear injected vehicle with an Earth orbit weight of about 180,000 kilograms (400,000 pounds) before interplanetary transit. In addition, two chemical symmetric vehicles are treated. Conservative radiation exposures are derived, for the 630 day mission, of less than 200 REM and a polyethelene radiation shelter is designed. Scientific aspects of the missions are discussed. Mission Success Probabilities are presented for the various missions considered and for Saturn C-5, Nova, and Super-Nova Earth launch vehicles in light of possible development. The need for acceleration of nuclear rocket engine developments and auxiliary power developments is indicated. Definition of a larger nuclear engine of the order of 200,000 pounds thrust and about 800 seconds burning time or 50,000 pound thrust and 3600 seconds burning time is indicated for the Symmetric Mission in 1970 (energy requirements are higher in 1972 and for later launch due to the less favorable position of Mars)_ Immediate development of this advanced nuclear propulsion capability is recommended. A Development Plan and Funding Schedule is given for the 1970 launch window pinpointing the critical development areas and indicating a total program cost of $12.6 billion independent of other programmed R&D costs. In conclusion, technological feasibility for an early manned dual planet Mars-Venus flyby is believed to be demonstrated in this study. Several areas of accelerated development and experimental confirmation of theory are pinpointed. The necessary funding and development of Nova or orbital operations capability with Saturn C-5's is required. The 1970 launch window appears to offer the least expensive Symmetric Mission for several years into the 1980's.

F. P. Dixon↗

Prospects for manned Mars missions

Studies called "EMPIRE" (standing for Early Manned Planetary-Interplanetary Roundtrip Expeditions) were initiated early in 1962 by the Future Projects Office for the Marshall Space Flight Center. These and related studies by other NASA centers were intended to bring to light the technical problems associated with such missions. The emphasis of these studies was on single and multiple planetary fty-bys, with some consideration given to planetary orbital and landing missions. The time period considered was the early 1970's. The contractors were Aeronutronic Division (Philco-Ford Motor Company), Lockheed Missiles and Space Company and General Dynamics/Astronautics. Studies relating to the time period 1975-85 were initiated in early 1963, by contracts with General Dynamics/ Fort Worth and Douglas Aircraft Company. Follow-on EMPIRE studies were carried out by Lockheed and General Dynamics/Astronautics. In addition, studies were made of a Mars Excursion Module by Aeronutronic, a Mars Mission Module (MMM) by North American Aviation's Space and Information Division, and an Earth Return Module (ERM) by Lockheed under the direction of the Manned Spacecraft Center. Complementary to these efforts were studies initiated by the Ames Research Center early in 1963 for a Manned Mars Landing and Return Mission. These studies were conducted by North American Aviation and by the TRW Space Technology Laboratories.

MARS /PLANET/↗

Apollo 17: At Taurus Littrow

A summation, with color illustrations, is presented on the Apollo 17 mission. The height, weight, and thrust specifications are given on the launch vehicle. Presentations are given on: the night launch; earth to moon ascent; separation and descent; EVA, the sixth lunar surface expedition; ascent from Taurus-Littrow; the America to Challenger rendezvous; return, reentry, and recovery; the scientific results of the mission; background information on the astronauts; and the future projects.

Anderton, D. A.↗

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Alexander, R.↗

The application of large numbers of pleasure boats to collect synoptic sea-truth for ERTS-1 overpasses

The author has identified the following significant results. In order to interpret and annotate current circulation and suspended sediment concentration maps derived from ERTS-1 digital tapes, the University of Delaware has been collecting water samples and other data from boats and helicopters. In order to increase the number of samples at the exact time of the ERTS-1 pass over Delaware Bay, pleasure craft were organized to obtain samples of the entire test site. On the ERTS-1 pass of July second, scientists were stationed at three public boat launches along the Bay to hand out sampling packets to interested boaters. The packets contained two litre sampling bottles, a map, data card, and a pen. The boaters were asked to fill the two bottles between 11 and 11:15 a.m., mark their location on the map, and fill out the data card. Forty-nine packets were handed out of which 40 were returned (82%). Only four of the 40 were not in the alloted time range. This gave 36 real time data points covering approximately 30 nautical miles. The samples are being analyzed for sediment concentration, particle size, and salinity. Participating boaters will receive a copy of an ERTS image of the Delaware Bay and a summary report of the project. Because of the success of the project, future use of pleasure boaters is being planned.

Klemas, V.↗

Widening ERTS applications

In less than two years of operation ERTS-1 is shown to have successfully completed its experimental mission and to be delivering an ever-increasing roster of benefits. The widening ERTS applications reviewed include air quality and weather modification, aid to oil exploration, ore-deposit exploration, short-lived event observation, flood area assessment and flood-plain mapping, land and water quality assessment, soil association mapping, crop production measurements, wildlife resources, drought and desertification studies, ground-water exploration, watershed surveys, snow and ice monitoring, surface water mapping, and iceberg surveys. Future projects and developments are also briefly reviewed.

Mercanti, E. P.↗

Terminal area considerations for an advanced CTOL transport aircraft

Projected future conditions at large urban airports were used to identify design objectives for a long-haul, advanced transport airplane introduced for operation in the mid-1980s. Operating constraints associated with airport congestion and aircraft noise and emissions were of central interest. In addition, some of the interaction of these constraints with aircraft fuel usage were identified. The study allowed for advanced aircraft design features consistent with the future operating period. A baseline 200 passenger airplane design was modified to comply with design requirements imposed by terminal area constraints. Specific design changes included: (1) modification of engine arrangement; wing planform; (2) drag and spoiler surfaces; (3) secondary power systems; (4) brake and landing gear characteristics; and (5) the aircraft avionics. These changes, based on exploratory design estimates and allowing for technology advance, were judged to enable the airplane to: reduce wake turbulence; handle steeper descent paths with fewer limitation due to engine characteristics; reduce runway occupancy times; improve community noise contours; and reduce the total engine emittants deposited in the terminal area. The penalties to airplane performance and operating cost associated with improving the terminal area characteristics of the airplane were assessed. Finally, key research problems requiring solution in order to validate the assumed advanced airplane technology were identified.

Sussman, M. B.↗

Present and future NASA earth resources related satellite programs

Ongoing and presently contemplated earth resources related space programs are discussed, and the evolution of present programs is presented. Nimbus, ERTS (earth resources technology satellite), Skylab, and GEOS C (geodetic earth-orbiting satellite C) are the ongoing programs described. Future projects explained comprise ERS (earth resources survey operational satellite), Nimbus G, EOS (earth observatory satellite), SEASAT (sea satellite), and shuttle sortie. The objectives and instrument payloads for each of the missions are detailed. A number of high-altitude color satellite photographs supplements the treatment.

Branchflower, G. A.↗