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NASA NTRS2009

A Biomechanical Approach to Assessing Hip Fracture Risk

Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) accomplishes this by imaging transverse "slices" of the long bones. This project was a re-analysis of a 90 day bed rest study to determine if changes to cortical and trabecular compartments could be detected in the distal tibia with statistical significance using a new pQCT image analysis method. Nearly all changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and cross sectional area (CSA) measures were seen with statistical significance, with the exception of a change in cortical BMD. Total bone CSA increased by 1.1 % (p =0.01), cortical CSA decreased by - 5.6% (p<0.001) and trabecular CSA increased by 1.76% (p=0.007); the combination of which suggests bone resorption occurred at the endocortical surface in response to mechanical unloading by bed rest. Furthermore, total BMD and trabecular BMD decreased (-3.8%, p=0.001 and -2.8%, p =0.007, respectively), while decreases in cortical BMD failed to reach significance (-1.2%, p=0.07). Given that compartment-specific changes are seen with significance and are likely to influence bone strength, it is recommended that pQCT remain a standard measure used in bed rest because it provides a unique measure by which to better evaluate the efficacy of countermeasures to microgravity-induced bone loss.

Ellman, Rachel↗
NASA NTRS2009

Individual Susceptibility to Hypobaric Environments: An Update

Astronauts are at risk for developing decompression sickness (DCS) while exposed to the hypobaric environment of the extravehicular suit in space, in terrestrial hypobaric chambers, and during ascent from neutral buoyancy training dives. There is increasing recognition that DCS risk is different between diving and altitude exposures, with many individual parameters and environmental factors implicated as risk factors for development of DCS in divers but are not recognized as risk factors in altitude exposures. Much of the literature to date has focused on patent foramen ovale (PFO), which has long been considered a major risk factor for DCS in diving exposures, but its link to serious DCS in altitude exposures remains unclear. Knowledge of those risk factors specific to hypobaric DCS may help identify susceptible individuals and aid in astronaut selection, crew assignment, and mission planning. This paper reviews the current literature pertaining to these risk factors, including PFO, anthropometric parameters, gender, menstrual cycle, lifetime diving experience, physical fitness, biochemical levels, complement activation, cigarette smoking, fluid balance, and ambient temperature. Further research to evaluate pertinent risk factors for DCS in altitude exposures is recommended.

Law, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2010

Bone Density Following Long Duration Space Flight and Recovery

At approx.12 months, Bone Mineral Density (BMD) at most sites in men remained lower than would be predicted, raising concerns for long-term bone health consequences following space flight. Additional analyses based on longer follow-up are being conducted. Although the N is too small for definitive conclusions, women had lower rates of loss at load-bearing sites of the hip and spine immediately post-flight relative to men and smaller differences between observed vs. predicted BMD at most sites, both immediately and 12 months post-flight, relative to men. The role of other exposures/risk factors need to be explored to further understand these possible gender differences in BMD loss and recovery following long-duration space flight.

Amin, Shreyasee↗
NASA NTRS2010

Decline in Aerobic Fitness After Long-Term Stays on the International Space Station

U.S. and non-Russian International Partner astronauts who participate in long-term International Space Station (ISS) expeditions perform submaximal cycle exercise tests before, during, and after space flight. The heart rate (HR) and oxygen uptake (VO2) responses to exercise are used to estimate peak VO2 (EVO2pk). Purpose: To determine if the following factors are associated with the preflight-to-post flight change in EVO2pk: gender, age, body weight (BW), number of aerobic exercise sessions/wk- during flight, length of flight, EVO2pk measured before and late during the flight, ISS Expedition number and time between landing and the first post flight test. Methods: Records of 37 ISS astronauts (30 male, BW=81.6 plus or minus 8.6 kg; 7 female BW=66.1 plus or minus 4.9 kg [mean plus or minus SD]), age 46 plus or minus 4 years, were retrospectively examined. Peak HR and VO2 were measured approximately 9 months before flight to establish the test protocol. The submaximal cycle test consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25, 50, and 75% of VO2pk. EVO2pk was calculated using linear least-squares extrapolation of average HR and VO2 during the last minute of each stage to predict VO2 at maximal HR. VO2 was not measured during flight and was assumed to not be different from preflight. Testing was performed 45 days before launch, late during flight, and during the week after landing. A random-intercept multivariate model was used to determine which characteristics significantly contributed to post flight EVO2pk. Results: In-flight aerobic exercise averaged 5.4 plus or minus 1.2 sessions/wk. ISS flight duration averaged 163 plus or minus 39 d. Mean EVO2pk values were 3.41 plus or minus 0.64 L (raised dot) per minute before flight, 3.09 plus or minus 0.57 L (raised dot) per minute late in flight, and 3.02 plus or minus 0.65 L (raised dot) per minute after flight. Late- and after-flight values were lower (p less than 0.05) than preflight values and did not differ from each other. Time between landing and post flight testing was 4.5 plus or minus 1.6 days. The only factor significantly associated with the post flight EVO2pk value was the late-flight EVO2pk score. Conclusion: Testing performed late during a mission provides a prediction of EVO2pk after landing. This approach may be implemented during longer missions.

Lynn, Peggy A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-Day Bed Rest on Postural Control in Men and Women

INTRODUCTION Head-down-tilt bed rest (HDT) has been used as a safe gr ound-based analog to mimic and develop countermeasures for the physiological effects of spaceflight, including decrements in postural stability. The purpose of this investigation was to characterize the effects of 30-, 60-, and 90-day bed rest on postural control in men and women. METHODS Twenty-nine subjects (18M,11F) underwent 13 days of ambula tory acclimatization and were placed in 6? HDT for 30 (n=12), 60 (n=8), or 90 (n=9) days, followed by 14 days of ambulatory recovery. Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) was used to assess changes in sensory and motor components of postural control, and recovery after HDT. Sensory Organization Tests (SOTs) objectively evaluate one?s ability to effectively use or suppress visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive information for postural control. Stability during the SOTs was assessed using peak-to-peak sway and convergence toward stability limits to derive an equilibrium score. Motor Control Tests (MCTs) evaluate one?s ability to recover from unexpected support surface perturbations, with performance determined by center-of-pressure path length. Whole-body kinematic data were collected to determine body-sway strategy used to maintain stability during each condition. Baselines were determined pre-HDT. Recovery was tracked post-HDT on days 0, 1, 2, and 4. RESULTS Immediately after HDT, subjects showed decreased performance on most SOTs, primarily on sway-referenced support conditions, typically returning to baseline levels within 4 days. MCT performance was not significantly affected. There were no significant gender or duration differences in performance. Kinematic data revealed a tendency to use ankle strategy to maintain an upright stance during most SOT conditions. Interestingly, six subjects (2M,4F) experienced orthostatic intolerance and were unable to complete day 0 testing. CONCLUSION HDT mimics some un loading mechanisms of spaceflight and elicits orthostatic issues present post-spaceflight (contributing to instability); however, it does not sufficiently address the vestibular dysfunction which occurs post-spaceflight.

Esteves, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2010

Human Health and Performance Considerations for Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

This presentation will describe the human health and performance issues that are anticipated for the human exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEA). Humans are considered a system in the design of any such deep-space exploration mission, and exploration of NEA presents unique challenges for the human system. Key factors that define the mission are those that are strongly affected by distance and duration. The most critical of these is deep-space radiation exposure without even the temporary shielding of a nearby large planetary body. The current space radiation permissible exposure limits (PEL) restrict mission duration to 3-10 months depending on age and gender of crewmembers and stage of the solar cycle. Factors that affect mission architecture include medical capability; countermeasures for bone, muscle, and cardiovascular atrophy during continuous weightlessness; restricted food supplies; and limited habitable volume. The design of a habitat that can maintain the physical and psychological health of the crew and support mission operations with limited intervention from Earth will require an integrated research and development effort by NASA s Human Research Program, engineering, and human factors groups. Limited abort and return options for an NEA mission are anticipated to have important effects on crew psychology as well as influence medical supplies and training requirements of the crew. Other important factors are those related to isolation, confinement, communication delays, autonomous operations, task design, small crew size, and even the unchanging view outside the windows for most of the mission. Geological properties of the NEA will influence design of sample handling and containment, and extravehicular activity capabilities including suit ports and tools. A robotic precursor mission that collects basic information on NEA surface properties would reduce uncertainty about these aspects of the mission as well as aid in design of mission architecture and exploration tasks.

Kundrot, Craig↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ultrasound Imaging of Spine: State of the Art and Utility for Space Flight

Introduction: Ultrasound imaging (sonography) has been increasingly used for both primary diagnosis and monitoring of musculoskeletal injury, including fractures. In certain injuries, sonography has been shown to equal or surpass Magnetic Resonance Imaging in accuracy. Long-term exposure to reduced gravity may be expected to cause physiological and anatomical changes of the musculoskeletal system, which are not fully described or understood. In a limited-resource environment like space flight, sonography will likely remain the only imaging modality; therefore, further attention to its potential is warranted, including its ability to image anatomical deviations as well as irregularities of vertebrae and the spinal column. Methods: A thorough review of literature was conducted on the subject. A multipurpose ultrasound system was used to identify specific vertebrae, intervertebral disks, and other structures of the cervical spine in healthy volunteers, selected to represent various age, gender, and Body Mass Index (BMI) groups. Sonographic views were sought that would parallel radiographic views and signs used in the diagnosis of cervical spine injuries. Results: While using widely accepted radiographic signs of cervical spine injury, this sonographic protocol development effort resulted in successful identification of scanning planes and imaging protocols that could serve as alternatives for radiography. Some of these views are also applicable to diagnosing degenerative disk and bone disease, and other non-traumatic spine pathology. Strong, preliminary correlation has been demonstrated in a number of clinical cases between sonography and other imaging modalities. Conclusion: In the absence of radiography, sonography can be used to diagnose or rule out certain common types of cervical spine conditions including injury. Clinical validation of the findings appears to be realistic and would facilitate establishment of new sonographic protocols for special environments with lacking radiographic capability, such as human space flight.

Sargsyan, Ashot E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Atrial Arrhythmias in Astronauts. Summary of a NASA Summit

This slide presentation reviews the findings of a panel of heart experts brought together to study if atrial arrhythmias more prevalent in astronauts, and potential risk factors that may predispose astronauts to atrial arrhythmias. The objective of the panel was to solicit expert opinion on screening, diagnosis, and treatment options, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose relevant research initiatives. While Atrial Arrhythmias occur in approximately the same percents in astronauts as in the general population, they seem to occur at younger ages in astronauts. Several reasons for this predisposition were given: gender, hypertension, endurance training, and triggering events. Potential Space Flight-Related Risk factors that may play a role in precipitating lone atrial fibrillation were reviewed. There appears to be no evidence that any variable of the space flight environment increases the likelihood of developing atrial arrhythmias during space flight.

Barr, Yael↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Vestibular Loss on Orthostatic Responses to Tilts in the Pitch Plane

The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which vestibular loss might impair orthostatic responses to passive tilts in the pitch plane in human subjects. Data were obtained from six subjects having chronic bilateral vestibular loss and six healthy individuals matched for age, gender, and body mass index. Vestibular loss was assessed with a comprehensive battery including dynamic posturography, vestibulo-ocular and optokinetic reflexes, vestibular evoked myogenic potentials, and ocular counterrolling. Head up tilt tests were conducted using a motorized two-axis table that allowed subjects to be tilted in the pitch plane from either a supine or prone body orientation at a slow rate (8 deg/s). The sessions consisted of three tilts, each consisting of20 min rest in a horizontal position, tilt to 80 deg upright for 10 min, and then return to the horizontal position for 5 min. The tilts were performed in darkness (supine and prone) or in light (supine only). Background music was used to mask auditory orientation cues. Autonomic measurements included beat-to-beat recordings of blood pressure (Finapres), heart rate (ECG), cerebral blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (transcranial Doppler), end tidal CO2, respiratory rate and volume (Respritrace), and stroke volume (impedance cardiography). For both patients and control subjects, cerebral blood flow appeared to exhibit the most rapid adjustment following transient changes in posture. Outside of a greater cerebral hypoperfusion in patients during the later stages of tilt, responses did not differ dramatically between the vestibular loss and control subjects, or between tilts performed in light and dark room conditions. Thus, with the 'exception of cerebrovascular regulation, we conclude that orthostatic responses during slow postural tilts are not substantially impaired in humans following chronic loss of vestibular function, a result that might reflect compensation by nonvisual graviceptor inputs (e.g., somatosensory) or other circulatory reflex mechanisms.

Wood, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Inverse Reinforcement Learning for Identity Prediction

We adopt Markov Decision Processes (MDP) to model sequential decision problems, which have the characteristic that the current decision made by a human decision maker has an uncertain impact on future opportunity. We hypothesize that the individuality of decision makers can be modeled as differences in the reward function under a common MDP model. A machine learning technique, Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL), was used to learn an individual's reward function based on limited observation of his or her decision choices. This work serves as an initial investigation for using IRL to analyze decision making, conducted through a human experiment in a cyber shopping environment. Specifically, the ability to determine the demographic identity of users is conducted through prediction analysis and supervised learning. The results show that IRL can be used to correctly identify participants, at a rate of 68% for gender and 66% for one of three college major categories.

Hayes, Roy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Social-Cognitive Biases in Simulated Airline Luggage Screening

This study illustrated how social cognitive biases affect the decision making process of air1ine luggage screeners. Participants (n = 96) performed a computer simulated task to detect hidden weapons in 200 x-ray images of passenger luggage. Participants saw each image for two (high time pressure) or six seconds (low time pressure). Participants observed pictures of the "passenger" who owns the luggage . The "pre-anchor group" answered questions about the passenger before the luggage image appeared, the "post-snchor" group answered questions after the luggage appeared, and the "no-anchor group" answered no questions. Participants either stopped or did not stop the bag. and rated their confidence in their decision. Participants under high time pressure had lower hit rates and higher false alarms, Significant differences between the pre-, no-, and post-anchor groups were based on the gender and race of the passengers. Participants had higher false alarm rates in response to male than female passengers.

Brown, Jeremy R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Nutrition Coupled with High-Load Traditional or Low-Load Blood Flow Restricted Exercise During Human Limb Suspension

High-load resistance exercise (HRE) and low-load blood flow restricted (BFR) exercise have demonstrated efficacy for attenuating unloading related muscle atrophy and dysfunction. In recreational exercisers, protein consumption immediately before and/or after exercise has been shown to increase the skeletal muscle anabolic response to resistance training. PURPOSE: To compare the skeletal muscle adaptations when chocolate milk intake was coupled with HRE or low-load BFR exercise [3 d/wk] during simulated lower limb weightlessness. METHODS: Eleven subjects were counterbalanced [based on age and gender] to HRE (31 +/- 14 yr, 170 +/- 13 cm, 71 +/- 18 kg, 2M/3W) or low-load BFR exercise (31 +/- 12 yr, 169 +/- 13 cm, 66 +/- 14 kg, 2M/4W) during 30 days of unilateral lower limb suspension (ULLS). Both HRE and BFR completed 3 sets of single leg press and calf raise exercise during ULLS. BFR exercise intensity was 20% of repetition maximum (1RM) with a cuff inflation pressure of 1.3 systolic blood pressure (143 4 mmHg). Cuff pressure was maintained during all 3 sets including rest intervals (90s). HRE intensity was 75% 1RM and was performed without cuff inflation. Immediately (<10 min) before and after exercise 8 fl oz of chocolate milk (150 kcal, 2.5g total fat, 22g total carbohydrate, 8g protein) was consumed to optimize acute exercise responses in favor of muscle anabolism. ULLS analog compliance was assessed from leg skin temperature recordings and plantar accelerometry. Muscle cross-sectional area (CSA) for knee extensor and plantar flexor muscle groups were determined from analysis of magnetic resonance images using ImageJ software. 1RM strength for leg press and calf raise was assessed on the Agaton exercise system. Muscular endurance during leg press and calf raise was evaluated from the maximal number of repetitions performed to volitional fatigue using 40% of pre-ULLS 1RM. RESULTS: Steps detected by plantar acceleometry declined by 98.9% during ULLS relative to an ambulatory control period. Average skin temperature of the unloaded calf declined from 27.4 C to 26.8 C (-2.1%), while there was a slight increase (+1.1%) in skin temperature in the loaded calf (27.6 C to 27.9 C). Collectively, these measures indicate strong subject compliance with the ULLS analog. Unloaded limb work performed during leg press (1514 +/- 334 vs. 576 +/- 103) and calf raise (2886 +/- 508 vs. 1233 +/- 153) exercises sessions was greater in HRE vs. BFR, respectively. Leg press training loads were 44 +/- 7 kg in HRE compared to 11 +/- 1 kg in BFR. Similarly, calf raise training loads were 81 +/- 11 kg in HRE and 16 +/- 1 kg in BFR. Pre to post-ULLS training adaptations in the unloaded leg are shown in the table. CONCLUSION: The preliminary results of this investigation suggest when HRE is optimized for muscle anabolism during unloading muscle size and strength are preserved (or enhanced) at the expense of muscle endurance. In contrast, when BFR exercise is optimized for muscle anabolism during unloading muscle endurance is preserved (or enhanced) at the expense of muscle size and strength

Hackney, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Acute Radiation Risk and BRYNTRN Organ Dose Projection Graphical User Interface

The integration of human space applications risk projection models of organ dose and acute radiation risk has been a key problem. NASA has developed an organ dose projection model using the BRYNTRN with SUM DOSE computer codes, and a probabilistic model of Acute Radiation Risk (ARR). The codes BRYNTRN and SUM DOSE are a Baryon transport code and an output data processing code, respectively. The risk projection models of organ doses and ARR take the output from BRYNTRN as an input to their calculations. With a graphical user interface (GUI) to handle input and output for BRYNTRN, the response models can be connected easily and correctly to BRYNTRN. A GUI for the ARR and BRYNTRN Organ Dose (ARRBOD) projection code provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the ARRBOD modules. The ARRBOD GUI is intended for mission planners, radiation shield designers, space operations in the mission operations directorate (MOD), and space biophysics researchers. BRYNTRN code operation requires extensive input preparation. Only a graphical user interface (GUI) can handle input and output for BRYNTRN to the response models easily and correctly. The purpose of the GUI development for ARRBOD is to provide seamless integration of input and output manipulations for the operations of projection modules (BRYNTRN, SLMDOSE, and the ARR probabilistic response model) in assessing the acute risk and the organ doses of significant Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The assessment of astronauts radiation risk from SPE is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks in future space missions. The ARRBOD GUI can identify the proper shielding solutions using the gender-specific organ dose assessments in order to avoid ARR symptoms, and to stay within the current NASA short-term dose limits. The quantified evaluation of ARR severities based on any given shielding configuration and a specified EVA or other mission scenario can be made to guide alternative solutions for attaining determined objectives set by mission planners. The ARRBOD GUI estimates the whole-body effective dose, organ doses, and acute radiation sickness symptoms for astronauts, by which operational strategies and capabilities can be made for the protection of astronauts from SPEs in the planning of future lunar surface scenarios, exploration of near-Earth objects, and missions to Mars.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗