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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2010

Multifidelity Analysis and Optimization for Supersonic Design

Supersonic aircraft design is a computationally expensive optimization problem and multifidelity approaches over a significant opportunity to reduce design time and computational cost. This report presents tools developed to improve supersonic aircraft design capabilities including: aerodynamic tools for supersonic aircraft configurations; a systematic way to manage model uncertainty; and multifidelity model management concepts that incorporate uncertainty. The aerodynamic analysis tools developed are appropriate for use in a multifidelity optimization framework, and include four analysis routines to estimate the lift and drag of a supersonic airfoil, a multifidelity supersonic drag code that estimates the drag of aircraft configurations with three different methods: an area rule method, a panel method, and an Euler solver. In addition, five multifidelity optimization methods are developed, which include local and global methods as well as gradient-based and gradient-free techniques.

Kroo, Ilan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GMAO OSSE Framework in Support of PBL Mission Science

The planetary boundary layer is the bottom layer of the troposphere where most of human activities take place. Atmospheric pollutants are capped by the temperature inversion layer in PBL. The thickness of PBL, ranging from tens of meter to several kilometer, affects pollutant dispersion and air quality. The thickness of PBL typically shows a strong diurnal cycle but it is difficult to model and predict its change because complicated dynamic and thermodynamic processes involved with air-surface exchange of temperature and moisture, convective mixing, surface friction, topography, advection and radiation heating and cooling influence the PBL height. Various parameterization schemes for PBL were developed but the underlying processes of PBL are neither clearly understood nor represented in NWP models and adding large uncertainty into weather and climate predictions. There are no systematic global observations to provide information on thermodynamic structure of PBL and efforts to explore new spaceborne instruments and measurement techniques are growing. This study aims to develop a PBL OSSE framework leveraging existing GMAO’s OSSE system that utilizes GEOS data assimilation and global forecast model (1) to evaluate existing and potential new observation types for the PBL structure analysis and prediction and (2) to test sensitivity of PBL parameterization schemes to PBL forecasts.

Min-Jeong Kim↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface Temperature Data Analysis

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Jaegle, Lyatt↗
NASA NTRS2023

Validity of the Landsat Surface Reflectance Archive for Aquatic Science: Implications for Cloud-Based Analysis

Originally developed for terrestrial science and applications, the US Geological Survey Landsat surface reflectance (SR) archive spanning ~ 40 yr of observations has been increasingly utilized in large‐scale water‐quality studies. These products, however, have not been rigorously validated using in situ measured reflectance. This letter quantifies and demonstrates the quality of the SR products by harnessing a sizeable global dataset ( N = 1100). We found that the Landsat 8/9 SR in the green and red bands marginally meet the targeted accuracy requirements (30%), whereas the uncertainties in the blue and coastal‐aerosol bands ranged from 48% to 110%. We further observed > +25% biases in the visible bands of Landsat 5/7 SR, which can introduce an apparent downward trend when applied in time‐series analyses combined with Landsat 8/9. Users must exercise caution when using this archive for trend analyses, and progress in atmospheric correction is required to foster advanced applications of the Landsat archive for aquatic science.

Landsat, lakes, harmful algal blooms↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Constraining Hesperian martian PCO2 from mineral analysis at Gale crater

Carbon dioxide is an essential atmospheric component in martian climate models that attempt to reconcile a faint young sun with planet-wide evidence of liquid water at the planets surface in the Noachian and Early Hesperian. Current estimates of ancient martian CO2 levels, derived from global inventories of carbon, and orbital detections of Noachian and Early Hesperian clay mineral-bearing terrains indicate CO2 levels that are unable to support warm and wet conditions. These estimates are subject to various sources of uncertainty however. Mineral and contextual sedimentary environmental data collected by the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity in Gale Crater provide a more direct means of estimating the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (PCO2) coinciding with a long-lived lake system in Gale crater at ~3.5 Ga. Results from a reaction-transport model, which simulates mineralogy observed within the Sheepbed member at Yellowknife Bay by coupling mineral equilibria with carbonate precipitation kinetics and rates of sedimentation, indicate atmospheric PCO2 levels in the 10’s mbar range. At such low PCO2 levels, climate models are unable to warm Hesperian Mars anywhere near the freezing point of water and other gases are required to raise atmospheric pressure to prevent lakes from boiling away. Thus, lacustrine features of Gale formed in a cold environment by a mechanism yet to be determined, or the climate models still lack an essential component that would serve to elevate surface temperatures, at least temporally and/or locally, on Hesperian Mars. Our results also impose restrictions on the potential role of atmospheric CO2 in inferred warmer conditions of the Noachian.

Bristow, T. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Global lower mesospheric water vapor revealed by LIMS observations

The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratospheric water vapor channel data analysis has been extended from the 1. mb level (about 48 km) to the .3 mb level (about 60 km) through a radiance averaging procedure and better understanding of systematic errors. The data show H2O mixing ratio peaks near the .5 mb level varying from 4 to 7 ppmv with latitude and season. Above this level the mixing ratio drops off quickly with altitude, but, due to experimental uncertainties, at an uncertain rate. The stratospheric results are virtually the same as determined from the archived LIMS results with a tropical hygropause and enhanced H2O concentration in the lower levels at high winter latitudes.

Gordley, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of AIRS Temperature Soundings

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm, is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates delta T(p) for retrieved quantities and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 deg. latitude X 0.67 deg longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates delta (p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process. We compared forecasts analyses generated from the analyses done by assimilation of AIRS temperature profiles with three different sets of thresholds; Standard, Medium, and Tight. Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature profiles significantly improve 5-7 day forecast skill compared to that obtained without the benefit of AIRS data in all of the cases studied. In addition, assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature soundings performs better than assimilation of AIRS observed radiances. Based on the experiments shown, Tight Quality Control of AIRS temperature profile performs best on the average from the perspective of improving Global 7 day forecast skill.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical orbital configuration.One objective the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include:1. What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility?2. How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize utility? 3. What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation?4. How can future mission costs being minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Design↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observations of aerosol by the HALOE experiment onboard UARS - A preliminary validation

The HALOE experiment measures vertical profiles of aerosol extinction at five infrared wavelengths. Four of these observations are obtained using a combination of gas filter and broadband radiometer measurements in bands of HF, HCl, CH4, and NO centered at wavelengths of 2.45, 3.40, 3.45, and 5.26 microns, respectively. The fifth is obtained using broadband radiometer measurements of CO2 transmission at 2.79 microns. Error analysis shows that the random extinction uncertainties are generally less than 10 percent in the aerosol layer, increasing to over 20 percent at the profile tops. HALOE spectral extinction measurements are shown to be consistent with predicted spectral extinction for stratospheric sulfate aerosol. Profile comparisons between HALOE and independent sources result in generally good agreement in the shape and magnitude of peak extinction and the altitude where the peak extinction occurs. In addition, global aerosol distributions obtained from the data are consistent with expected aerosol morphology. Although the validation is preliminary, the HALOE aerosol data appear to be of excellent quality and to accurately represent optical characteristics and distribution of the aerosols.

Hervig, Mark E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Efficient Parametric Uncertainty Analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle Concept Using Least Angle Regression

The objective of this work was to outline and apply an efficient and accurate parametric un-certainty propagation approach to the analysis of convective heating on an Earth entry vehicle concept. The described approach was based on Least Angle Regression used to solve a sparse and underdetermined linear system in the point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos surrogate method. This approach involved an iterative process to computing the non-zero terms of the underlying polynomial chaos model using only enough samples to converge uncertainty interval predictions and Sobol index values based global nonlinear sensitivity estimates. The Earth entry vehicle was analyzed at three points along a representative trajectory for a Mars return mission. 329 sources of uncertainty were identified in the computational fluid dynamics model used to predict the forebody convective heating. These included uncertainty in flow field chemical rates, collision integrals, heats of formation, surface finite rate char model reaction rates, wall roughness height, and the turbulent Schmidt number. Results from this study showed that convective heating uncertainty as high as 50% of the nominal was predicted with only about 50 evaluations of the computational model. This was far fewer than would be required for a sampling-based approach or a full basis polynomial chaos model, which would have required over 50,000 samples. Additionally, results showed that over 90% of the total convective heating uncertainty was due to uncertainty in the N2catalytic rate on the surface, while the remainder of the uncertainty was attributed to the turbulent Schmidt number and the wall roughness uncertainties.

Thomas K West IV↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Sensitivity Analyses for Test Planning with Black-Box Models for Mars Sample Return

This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, on the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply novel optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output. On the modeling side, we apply multi-fidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping these in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful for the analysts to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing in order to maximize the value of information extracted from them to ensure mission success when limited resources are available.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗
NASA NTRS2021

Strong Regional Influence of Climatic Forcing Datasets on Global Crop Model Ensembles

We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗
NASA NTRS2011

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Rodell, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards the Development of a Global, Satellite-Based, Terrestrial Snow Mission Planning Tool

A global, satellite-based, terrestrial snow mission planning tool is proposed to help inform experimental mission design with relevance to snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE). The idea leverages the capabilities of NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) to harness the information content of Earth science mission data across a suite of hypothetical sensor designs, orbital configurations, data assimilation algorithms, and optimization and uncertainty techniques, including cost estimates and risk assessments of each hypothetical permutation. One objective of the proposed observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is to assess the complementary or perhaps contradictory information content derived from the simultaneous collection of passive microwave (radiometer), active microwave (radar), and LIDAR observations from space-based platforms. The integrated system will enable a true end-to-end OSSE that can help quantify the value of observations based on their utility towards both scientific research and applications as well as to better guide future mission design. Science and mission planning questions addressed as part of this concept include: What observational records are needed (in space and time) to maximize terrestrial snow experimental utility? How might observations be coordinated (in space and time) to maximize this utility? What is the additional utility associated with an additional observation? How can future mission costs be minimized while ensuring Science requirements are fulfilled?

Mission Desig↗
NASA NTRS2020

Building a standardized Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars

We advocate that the Decadal Survey recommends the NASA Science Mission Directorate to develop a rigorous Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework for Mars, to optimize future atmospheric observations. Atmospheric conditions on Mars are a potential hazard source for landing missions. Errors in the estimates of atmospheric density profiles, inadequate knowledge of wind vertical structure and dust concentration as a function of height are likely causes of uncertainty at the landing site on the order of kilometers. An operational real-time weather forecasting capability for Mars would reduce such uncertainties, carrying enormous benefits to future robotic missions, and would be an invaluable prerequisite for human missions.A real-time forecasting capability relies upon three fundamental components: a critical mass of observing systems, a data assimilation system (DAS), and a global forecast model. The DAS allows the model to ingest the data effectively, optimizing the observational information content,and transforming them into a gridded representation of the atmosphere at a given time, called an ‘analysis’. The analysis is the best estimate of the atmospheric state for that time, and also represents a set of ‘initial conditions’ from which a global model can be initialized, to predict a future state of the atmosphere. The connection between analysis and forecast represents the foundation of modern weather forecasting. However, from the point of view of a forecast system,not all observations are equally impactful, partially because of the problem of “observational error correlation”, one important research topic in data assimilation development. For the Earth, partly due to the spontaneous and deregulated development of observations and forecast capabilities worldwide for more than half a century,the use of observations in contemporary operational forecast systems is suboptimal, with many potentially useful data being underutilized. On the contrary, Mars atmospheric scientists are in the unique situation of designing the next-generation observing systems by learning from the experience gathered on the Earth, so as to assure that the future instruments are specifically optimized to give the maximum benefit to a future weather forecast capability.An immensely powerful tool that has been firmly established by atmospheric scientists on the Earth is represented by a properly designed OSSE framework. A realistic OSSE framework cannot only quantify the benefit of future data types, be them surface based or space borne, but can also help design and optimize an entire observational network. Furthermore, OSSEs can provide deep insights into an atmosphere’s behavior, by addressing conceptual problems of its intrinsic predictability and delineating the regions or features of the atmosphere which are more sensitive to additional data and would benefit from a denser sampling. The difficulties posed by OSSEs are fundamentally different for Earth and Mars. For Earth, the enormous data volume imposes a tremendous constraint on any innovation in the observing systems: it is very hard for a single sensor to impact the skill. For Mars, the problem is the opposite: almost any additional instrument will exert some impact. However, OSSEs can help to evaluate the cost/benefit for every sensor and suggest optimal data configuration and density.The purpose of this white paper is to provide an introduction to a rigorously designed OSSE framework, explain the underlying problems and challenges, and engage the Mars community to collaborate with Earth Atmospheric scientists in order to develop a joint-OSSE framework for Mars with the largest consensual basis possible. An OSSE infrastructure would increase the understanding of the Martian atmosphere, would help NASA to optimize instrument specifications and orbit choice, providing the maximium benefit for a given expenditure of resources, and could even help establishing a roadmap for a future real-time weather forecasting capability.

Oreste Reale↗