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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Combined Theoretical Analysis of the Parity-Violating Asymmetry for 48 Ca and 208 Pb

The recent experimental determination of the parity violating asymmetry A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb at Jefferson Lab is important for our understanding on how neutrons and protons arrange themselves inside the atomic nucleus. To better understand the impact of these measurements, we present a rigorous theoretical investigation of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb and assess the associated uncertainties. Here, we complement our study by inspecting the static electric dipole polarizability in these nuclei. The analysis is carried out within nuclear energy density functional theory with quantified input. We conclude that the simultaneous accurate description of A PV in 48 Ca and 208 Pb cannot be achieved by our models that accommodate a pool of global nuclear properties, such as masses and charge radii, throughout the nuclear chart, and describe—within one standard deviation—the experimental dipole polarizabilities in these nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a sustainable circular economy of multilayer plastic films: Life cycle and techno-economic assessment with a focus on end-of-life treatment and multiple recovery cycles

This study presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of end-of-life technologies for treating polyethylene–polyamide barrier film waste, focusing on quality degradation across recovery cycles. Novel treatment methods are experimentally validated, while others are drawn from literature and industry consultations. A displacement approach, assuming no quality loss, is first applied. Results show that solvent-based recycling via the solvent-targeted recovery and precipitation (STRAP) process outperforms alternatives across environmental indicators, reducing global warming potential (GWP) by 40% compared to landfilling. Incineration performs worst in most categories, particularly eutrophication (80% higher than landfilling), due to nitrogen emissions. Experimentally validated downcycling (pelletizing) proves more economically viable. The assumption of infinite recoverability is overly optimistic. To address this, we propose a mathematical framework accounting for a finite number of recovery cycles. This refined model shows reduced GWP and cost savings for solvent recovery, making its benefits less pronounced than initially estimated. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses reveal strong dependence on recovered material quality and solvent recovery efficiency, underscoring the need for optimized process design. Finally, hotspot analysis identifies greenhouse gas emissions from the polyamide supply chain as the dominant GWP contributor. In conclusion, the results underscore potential trade-offs across pathways and show that solvent-based recovery’s sustainability depends heavily on process conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying dominant environmental predictors of freshwater wetland methane fluxes across diurnal to seasonal time scales

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. In this work we used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble of Neural Networks for Moist Physics Processes, Its Generalizability and Stable Integration

Abstract With the recent advances in data science, machine learning has been increasingly applied to convection and cloud parameterizations in global climate models (GCMs). This study extends the work of Han et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002076 ) and uses an ensemble of 32‐layer deep convolutional residual neural networks, referred to as ResCu‐en, to emulate convection and cloud processes simulated by a superparameterized GCM, SPCAM. ResCu‐en predicts GCM grid‐scale temperature and moisture tendencies, and cloud liquid and ice water contents from moist physics processes. The surface rainfall is derived from the column‐integrated moisture tendency. The prediction uncertainty inherent in deep learning algorithms in emulating the moist physics is reduced by ensemble averaging. Results in 1‐year independent offline validation show that ResCu‐en has high prediction accuracy for all output variables, both in the current climate and in a warmer climate with +4K sea surface temperature. The analysis of different neural net configurations shows that the success to generalize in a warmer climate is attributed to convective memory and the 1‐dimensional convolution layers incorporated into ResCu‐en. We further implement a member of ResCu‐en into CAM5 with real world geography and run the neural‐network‐enabled CAM5 (NCAM) for 5 years without encountering any numerical integration instability. The simulation generally captures the global distribution of the mean precipitation, with a better simulation of precipitation intensity and diurnal cycle. However, there are large biases in temperature and moisture in high latitudes. These results highlight the importance of convective memory and demonstrate the potential for machine learning to enhance climate modeling.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Translator Plan: A Coordinated Vision for Fiscal Years 2023-2025

Translators serve a unique role in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, offering scientific input through various leadership and service roles. The Translators direct the creation of value-added products (VAPs) and analysis tools that make ARM measurements more accessible to the scientific community. Translators also serve as liaisons between users and the ARM infrastructure, collecting information about priorities and communicating ARM data and services. A key group focus is supporting the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program scientists and ASR’s efforts towards a process-level understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions, and in reducing uncertainty in global climate model projections. The ARM Translator Group (Table 1) consists of the five Translators, a representative of software development, and one from the Data Quality Office (DQO). Additionally, the ARM Engineering and Process Manager participates in this group and provides input and direction from ARM and its programmatic priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of LHC precision measurements of inclusive jet and dijet production on the CTEQ-TEA global PDF fit

In this study, we investigate the impact of new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) inclusive jet and dijet measurements on parton distribution functions (PDFs) that describe the proton structure, with a particular focus on the gluon distribution at large momentum fraction, x , and the corresponding partonic luminosities. We assess constraints from these datasets using next-to-next-to-leading-order (NNLO) theoretical predictions, accounting for a range of uncertainties from scale dependence and numerical integration. From the scale choices available for the calculations, our analysis shows that the central predictions for inclusive jet production show a smaller scale dependence than dijet production. We examine the relative constraints on the gluon distribution provided by the inclusive jet and dijet distributions, and also explore the phenomenological implications for inclusive H , t t ¯ , and t t ¯ H production at the LHC at 14 TeV. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablat, Alim (ORCID:0009000519877755)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Riverine Dissolved and Particulate Organic Carbon Fluxes from Two Small Watersheds in the Northeastern United States

The coupled carbon (C) cycle across terrestrial and aquatic environments at the watershed scale has been identified as an important, but poorly constrained component of the global carbon budget. Here, we extended Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with coupled riverine particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) modules (referred to as SWAT-C hereafter). Results show that SWAT-C reproduced daily POC and DOC fluxes well in two watersheds in the Northeastern United States. We found that SWAT-C tended to underestimate high flows and peak DOC and POC fluxes. Uncertainty analysis indicated flux uncertainties associated with POC and DOC simulation were larger than those for flow simulation. Sensitive parameters controlling POC and DOC biogeochemical processes were identified along with how these parameters influence mechanisms underlying C cycling. We anticipate that the tool developed and applied here will inform C related ecosystem services in watershed assessment and planning.

Dissolved organic carbon, Particulate organic carb↗
DOE OSTI2024

New results in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distributions in the nucleon

This report summarizes the latest developments in the CTEQ-TEA global analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon. The focus is on recent NNLO fits to high-precision LHC data at 8 and 13 TeV, including Drell–Yan, jet, and top-quark pair production, pursued on the way toward the release of the new generation of CTEQ-TEA general-purpose PDFs. The report also discusses advancements in statistical and numerical methods for PDF determination and uncertainty quantification, highlighting the importance of robust and replicable uncertainties for high-stakes observables. Additionally, it covers phenomenological studies related to PDF determination, such as the interplay of experimental constraints, exploration of correlations between high-x nucleon sea and low-energy parity-violating measurements, fitted charm in the nucleon, the photon PDF in the neutron, and simultaneous SMEFT-PDF analyses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematics in the XENON1T data: The 15-keV anti-axion

The XENON1T collaboration Aprile et al. [2020] has found an excess of electron recoil events in their Science Run 1 data below ~7 keV with a spectral shape consistent with that expected from a solar-axion-induced signal. The claimed statistical significance of the solar-axion model over the null hypothesis is 3.5σ. In this work we provide suggestive evidence for mismodeling in the electron recoil data that may decrease the local significance of the axion model. To reach this conclusion, we search for a signal with the spectral template of the solar axion model, but shifted to higher (unphysical) energies above ~7 keV. We find that the distribution of significances found from this side-band analysis does not follow the expected chi-square distribution. For example, we find a high-significance feature in the data, with a global $p$-value $p≈0.026$, when the solar axion model is shifted upwards in energy by ~15 keV and allowed to have a negative normalization. We argue that such statistical tests, if performed a priori, provide a data-driven way to test and potentially account for systematic uncertainties on the background model in low-threshold dark matter experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct sensitivity analysis on the parameterization of crystal plasticity models

Various methods for calibrating crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) models lead to non-unique input parameter values, which subsequently introduce uncertainty in the predicted mechanical response. Sensitivity analysis (SA) conducted on crystal plasticity models is used to identify how variability in these parameters contribute to output uncertainty. Traditional SA on CPFE parameters uses simplified surrogate models to save computational time. However, the accuracy of the surrogate models depends on the quantity of training data used, and any modeling error can propagate into the SA results, potentially affecting their reliability. In this work, the elementary effects test (EET) method, a global SA technique using direct CPFE simulations was employed, and the results obtained were compared with the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. ExaConstit, an open-source GPU-enabled CPFE code, was used to perform the simulations and direct SA. The EET method was accurately able to capture the non-linear effects of all the input parameters on the output and is a valuable approach for reliably attributing parameter sensitivities in CPFE models. Based on the results, efficient strategies to perform future parameter calibration and SA are discussed. Additionally, the SA trends observed in different single crystal orientations closely mirrored the activity of the slip systems.

Elementary Effects Test↗