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At least 163 records · Page 9

Frontier nonequilibrium materials science enabled by ultrafast electron methods

Most innovation in materials science and engineering resides in our ability to understand and control the intimate relationship between the structure of materials and their properties. Conventionally, the only route to discovering innovative new material properties has been to explore the structural and compositional phase space that is accessible at (or near) thermodynamic equilibrium. The characterization, manipulation and, ultimately, control of material properties far from equilibrium offers almost completely untapped possibilities for uncovering novel states and phases of materials. Investigations of materials far from equilibrium require the development of new techniques, which are capable of following dynamic processes in materials with extreme spatiotemporal resolution. Thus, ultrafast electron-based methods have become a major new frontier in materials science due to the capability of following dynamics on time scales as short as femtoseconds with the high spatial resolution and sensitivity afforded by electrons. The articles in this issue provide an exciting cross section of the novel research directions that have been enabled at this frontier. Imaging on ultrafast time scales carries critical information on phase transitions, fundamental processes involved in light-harvesting, magnetic, and plasmonic dynamics, the coupling of electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom in materials and has revealed previously hidden, nonequilibrium metastable states of matter that have no equilibrium analog.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Demonstration of full-scale spatiotemporal diagnostics of solid-density plasmas driven by an ultra-short relativistic laser pulse using an X-ray free-electron laser

Understanding the complex plasma dynamics in ultra-intense relativistic laser–solid interactions is of fundamental importance for applications of laser–plasma-based particle accelerators, the creation of high-energy-density matter, understanding planetary science, and laser-driven fusion energy. However, experimental efforts in this regime have been limited by the lack of accessibility of over-critical densities and the poor spatiotemporal resolution of conventional diagnostics. Over the last decade, the advent of femtosecond brilliant hard X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has opened new horizons to overcome these limitations. Here, for the first time, we present full-scale spatiotemporal measurements of solid-density plasma dynamics, including preplasma generation with tens of nanometer scale length driven by the leading edge of a relativistic laser pulse, ultrafast heating and ionization at the main pulse arrival, the laser-driven blast wave, and transient surface return current-induced compression dynamics up to hundreds of picoseconds after interaction. These observations are enabled by utilizing a novel combination of advanced X-ray diagnostics including small-angle X-ray scattering, resonant X-ray emission spectroscopy, and propagation-based X-ray phase-contrast imaging simultaneously at the European XFEL-HED beamline station.

Huang, Lingen [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendor↗

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single-molecule imaging of lignocellulose deconstruction by SCATTIRSTORM microscopy

The goal of this project is to build a multimodal optical microscope to measure the binding, processive degradation, and pausing behaviors of cellulases as they interact with and degrade both synthetic and naturally occurring lignocellulosic walls. To achieve this, we will use high spatio-temporal single-molecule imaging to track cellulases, while visualizing specific molecular components of cellulose, lignin and hemicellulose, that make up their lignocellulose substrate. The microscope will combine Interferometric Scattering (iSCAT), which provides unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution; Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF), which provides single-molecule resolution of multiple fluorophore-labeled molecules; and Stochastic Reconstruction (STORM), which allows for three-dimensional super-resolution imaging of intact plant cell walls during degradation. Initial studies will investigate cellulase dynamics on in vitro-assembled cell wall analogs, and later work will progress to using native plant cell walls.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Enabling Mars Radio Occultation by Smallsats

We introduce a Mars Radio Occultation (RO) mission concept leveraging on small satellite (smallsat) technologies that will enable measurements that address both Mars science and exploration priorities. The RO technique measures the Doppler shift of radio signals of a spacecraft occulting behind a planet’s limb that contains information about the planet’s atmospheric density, temperature, and pressure. We design a smallsat constellation and simulate “crosslink” RO observations between the smallsats to determine the expected accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of Mars RO atmospheric profiles. Such measurements are key to spacecraft Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) and Ascent from the Surface (AST) of Mars. Today, there are limited number of Mars atmospheric profiles with high vertical resolution, especially measurements near the surface that are difficult to obtain from satellite-based passive instruments due to atmospheric absorption. We find that crosslink ROs between a constellation of six smallsats provide global and diurnal cycle coverage with dozens of occultations per day, providing temperature information from near-surface up to ~45 km with altitude-dependent accuracy that ranges between <0.5 K at lower altitude to <5 K in the middle-to-upper atmosphere. Ionospheric ROs reveal an expected electron density of ~5 – 10% at the peak ionospheric height between 100 and 140 km. We conclude that observations obtained from a smallsat constellation can augment existing observing platforms by reducing observational gaps and yield high resolution measurements required for safe spacecraft operations during EDL and AST.

Martinez, German↗

Accelerating TEMPO Air Quality Science Through STAQS

Soon after the launch of Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) mission, NASA is supporting the Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science field study (STAQS) in summer 2023. This study’s main objective is to accelerate science with geostationary air quality observations from TEMPO to better understand its use in air pollution research and applications. Science objectives include, but are not limited to, TEMPO L2 product evaluation, the interpretation of the spatiotemporal evolution of TEMPO data during air quality events, assessment of anthropogenic emissions, contributions to chemical transport modeling, and environmental justice applications. These objectives can be accomplished through the integration of satellite data with systematically repeated high-resolution aircraft- and ground-based measurements in multiple urban environments. The primary urban cities considered include Los Angeles, New York City, and Chicago in June-August 2023. Measurements consist of airborne remote sensing observations of air quality constituents of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), ozone, and aerosols using the GeoCape Airborne Simulator and High-Spectral Resolution Lidar 2/Differential Absorption Lidar (HSRL2/DIAL) on the NASA JSC G-V aircraft, greenhouse gas observations from Airborne Visible InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer - Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) on the NASA LaRC G-III aircraft, and ground-based remote sensing and in situ observations of ozone, NO2, and HCHO from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet), Pandora spectrometers, and ground-based monitoring networks. Key partnership studies providing in situ airborne observations include the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) field study on the NASA DC-8 in the same primary target areas as STAQS and Greater New York Oxidant, Tropospheric Halogens, and Aerosol Measurements and Modeling (GOTHAMM) field study on the NSF C-130 near New York City. This presentation will include a current status update of the STAQS mission and an overview of its measurement strategies and science objectives with the goal of promoting continued discussions for building and strengthening collaborations prior to the mission.

Laura Judd↗

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗

Evaluating Diurnal Ozone Emissions: A Comparative Analysis of DSCOVR EPIC, PANDORA, and TOLNet Data for Space-Based Monitoring Assessment: A Case Study by ASDC

Stratospheric ozone occurs naturally in the upper atmosphere, forming a protective layer that shields us from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. Tropospheric ozone is not emitted directly into the air but is created by chemical reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). This reaction happens when pollutants emitted by cars, power plants, industrial boilers, refineries, chemical plants, and other sources chemically react in sunlight [1]. Therefore, increased levels of tropospheric ozone indicate the presence of pollutants in the air. While daily anthropogenic activity causes an increase of ground-level ozone, variation of stratospheric ozone changes happens much slower, so that variation of the total ozone column reflects the variation of the tropospheric column due to natural, e.g., wildfires and anthropogenic air pollution. Both total and tropospheric ozone column products are used in this study. The reflectance spectra measured by the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft are compared with a set of radiative transfer-derived lookup tables for the EPIC filter transmission functions and a wide range of ozone values to retrieve ozone with a maximum resolution of 18 km at the sub-satellite point [2]. EPIC provides total column ozone in level 2 and level 4 products and tropospheric column ozone in level 4 products. Both EPIC Ozone products [2] are available at the Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) at NASA Langley Research Center [3, 4]. Pandora spectrometer instrument measures columnar amounts of trace gases in the atmosphere. These gases (O3, NO2, CH2O) absorb light from the sun at specific wavelengths in the ultraviolet-visible spectrum [5]. Using the theoretical solar spectrum as a reference, Pandora determines trace gas amounts using differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS). Pandora ozone retrievals are available from the Pandonia Global Network [6]. Pandora data from North American major metropolitan areas, New York, NY, Washington DC, Los Angeles, CA, and Mexico City. Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) was established in 2012 to provide high spatiotemporal observations of tropospheric ozone to (1) better understand physical processes driving the ozone budget in various meteorological and environmental conditions and (2) validate the tropospheric ozone measurements of space-borne missions [7]. TOLNet data are available at ASDC [8]. While EPIC provides global coverage of ozone retrievals several times daily, temporal resolution may miss some features in daily ozone variations. Ground-based sensors such as Pandora spectrometers and TOLNet lidars provide better temporal resolution while missing continuous spatial coverage. The forthcoming ozone retrieval from the TEMPO mission [9] will provide better spatial and temporal coverage of air quality (including ozone) over North America. This study investigates whether EPIC ozone products can detect diurnal air quality variations and compare ozone temporal development with retrieval by ground-based instruments.

diurnal ozone emissions, DSCOVR EPIC, PANDORA, spa↗

Surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet from enhanced resolution passive microwave brightness temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance, affecting sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation on ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting in view of their long temporal coverage (1979–to date) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, being historically of the order of tens of kilometres. Here, we use a newly released passive microwave dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through the NASA MeASUREs program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the GrIS at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 Km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms through data collected by Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and the outputs of the MAR regional climate model. We found that surface melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of MEMLS model, capable to detect sporadic and persistent melting. Our results indicate that, during the reference period 1979–2019 (1988–2019), surface melting over the GrIS increased in terms of both duration, up to ~4.5 (2.9) days per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the GrIS surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season has started up to ~4 (2.5) days earlier and ended ~7 (3.9) days later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs through a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local scale processes, hence confirming the potential interest of this new enhanced product for studying surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and monitor its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modelled melt extent at high resolution and potentially to assimilate this data in climate models.

Surface melting↗

Four-dimensional dynamics of multirotational transition stimulated rotational Raman scattering in air

Stimulated rotational Raman scattering in air is a powerful parasitic process that degrades high intensity laser beams and pulses propagated over significant distances. Conversely, it is used beneficially in the context of Raman lasers. Through this inelastic scattering process, laser photons are converted to higher (anti-Stokes) or lower (Stokes) energies, according to rotational mode transitions in nitrogen and oxygen diatomic molecules. The full wave-mixing problem involves numerous frequencies, and it is consistently assumed that only one rotational mode contributes to the conversion process. We instead present a dynamic 4D multirotational model that is implemented in a parallelized manner within the Virtual Beamline++ optical modeling package allowing high-resolution 4D studies. We highlight the effect that spontaneous emission plays in large and small beam-width setups, even in the highly saturating regime. The weaker transition modes play a large role in the persistent dynamics and can lead to complex spatiotemporal coupling through nonlinear competition of the modes. We highlight how and why these weaker modes persist, how the size and shape of speckle patterns depends highly on the initial beam profile, and how weaker modes can transiently become stronger as a result of such competition.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the benefits of improved satellite remote-sensing observations for inverse modeling of NOx and NMVOC emissions

This study aims to demonstrate the benefits of using novel high spatiotemporal retrieval products from newer satellites for top-down emission estimates of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) for the summer of 2019 over the contiguous United States. Recent satellite retrievals have not only advanced spatiotemporal resolution but also greatly reduced error and uncertainty due to reduced noise in the retrievals compared to spaceborne sensors launched in the past. We applied inverse modeling techniques using tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and formaldehyde (H-CHO) column retrieval products from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in conjunction with the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling system (WRF-CMAQ). In order to provide a better representation of background chemical composition and avoid misalignment of emission adjustment, we applied monthly scaling factors for ozone (O 3 ) and CO boundary concentrations in addition to the inclusion of lightning and aviation emissions. Satellite-constrained NO x and NMVOCs posterior emissions showed a mitigated discrepancy between observed and modeled columns. The improvement in the model performance was greater when using TROPOMI, primarily benefiting from reduced errors/biases of the satellite retrievals that enabled us to explore corresponding changes in O 3 concentrations and production sensitivity regimes using the ratio of H-CHO and NO 2 .

remote sensing↗

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

Spatio–Temporal Machine Learning for Regional to Continental Scale Terrestrial Hydrology

Integrated hydrologic models can simulate coupled surface and subsurface processes but are computationally expensive to run at high resolutions over large domains. Here we develop a novel deep learning model to emulate subsurface flows simulated by the integrated ParFlow–CLM model across the contiguous US. We compare convolutional neural networks like ResNet and UNet run autoregressively against our novel architecture called the Forced SpatioTemporal RNN (FSTR). The FSTR model incorporates separate encoding of initial conditions, static parameters, and meteorological forcings, which are fused in a recurrent loop to produce spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater. We evaluate the model architectures on their ability to reproduce 4D pressure heads, water table depths, and surface soil moisture over the contiguous US at 1 km resolution and daily time steps over the course of a full water year. The FSTR model shows superior performance to the baseline models, producing stable simulations that capture both seasonal and event–scale dynamics across a wide array of hydroclimatic regimes. The emulators provide over 1,000× speedup compared to the original physical model, which will enable new capabilities like uncertainty quantification and data assimilation for integrated hydrologic modeling that were not previously possible. Our results demonstrate the promise of using specialized deep learning architectures like FSTR for emulating complex process–based models without sacrificing fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stroboscopic ultrafast imaging using RF strip-lines in a commercial transmission electron microscope

The development of ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM), specifically stroboscopic imaging, has brought the study of structural dynamics to a new level by overcoming the spatial limitations of ultrafast spectroscopy and the temporal restrictions of traditional TEM simultaneously. Combining the concepts governing both techniques has enabled direct visualization of dynamics with spatiotemporal resolutions in the picosecond-nanometer regime. Here, in this study, we push the limits of imaging using a pulsed electron beam via RF induced transverse deflection based on the newly developed 200 keV frequency-tunable strip-line pulser. We demonstrate 0.2 nm spatial resolution at high magnifications and elucidation of Lorentz imaging using the phase-microscopy method. We also present beam coherence measurements and expand our study using the breathing modes of a silicon interdigitated comb under RF excitation which achieves improved temporal synchronization between the electron pulse-train and electric field. A new RF holder has also been developed with impedance matching to the RF signal to minimize transmission power loss to samples and its performance is compared with a conventional sample holder.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗