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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
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NASA NTRS1994

On the derivation of coseismic displacement fields using differential radar interferometry: The Landers earthquake

We present a map of the coseimic displacement field resulting from the Landers, California, June 28, 1992, earthquake derived using data acquired from an orbiting high-resolution radar system. We achieve results more accurate than previous space studies and similar in accuracy to those obtained by conventional field survey techniques. Data from the ERS 1 synthetic aperture radar instrument acquired in April, July, and August 1992 are used to generate a high-resolution, wide area map of the displacements. The data represent the motion in the direction of the radar line of sight to centimeter level precision of each 30-m resolution element in a 113 km by 90 km image. Our coseismic displacement contour map gives a lobed pattern consistent with theoretical models of the displacement field from the earthquake. Fine structure observed as displacement tiling in regions several kilometers from the fault appears to be the result of local surface fracturing. Comparison of these data with Global Positioning System and electronic distance measurement survey data yield a correlation of 0.96; thus the radar measurements are a means to extend the point measurements acquired by traditional techniques to an area map format. The technique we use is (1) more automatic, (2) more precise, and (3) better validated than previous similar applications of differential radar interferometry. Since we require only remotely sensed satellite data with no additioanl requirements for ancillary information. the technique is well suited for global seismic monitoring and analysis.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Global Single and Multiple Cloud Classification with a Fuzzy Logic Expert System

An unresolved problem in remote sensing concerns the analysis of satellite imagery containing both single and multiple cloud layers. While cloud parameterizations are very important both in global climate models and in studies of the Earth's radiation budget, most cloud retrieval schemes, such as the bispectral method used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), have no way of determining whether overlapping cloud layers exist in any group of satellite pixels. Coakley (1983) used a spatial coherence method to determine whether a region contained more than one cloud layer. Baum et al. (1995) developed a scheme for detection and analysis of daytime multiple cloud layers using merged AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and HIRS (High-resolution Infrared Radiometer Sounder) data collected during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus 2 field campaign. Baum et al. (1995) explored the use of a cloud classification technique based on AVHRR data. This study examines the feasibility of applying the cloud classifier to global satellite imagery.

Welch, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cloud Scaling Properties and Cloud Parameterization

Cloud liquid and cloud traction variability is studied as a function of horizontal scale in the ECMWF forecast model during several 10-day runs at the highest available model resolution, recently refined from approximately 60 km (T213) down to approximately 20 km (T639). At higher resolutions, model plane-parallel albedo biases are reduced, so that models may be tuned to have larger, more realistic, cloud liquid water amounts, However, the distribution of cloud liquid assumed -within- each gridbox, for radiative and thermodynamic computations, depends on ad hoc assumptions that are not necessarily consistent with observed scaling properties, or with scaling properties produced by the model at larger scales. To study the larger-scale cloud properties, ten locations on the Earth are chosen to coincide with locations having considerable surface data available for validation, and representing a variety of climatic regimes, scaling exponents are determined from a range or scales down to model resolution, and are re-computed every three hours, separately for low, medium and high clouds, as well as column-integrated cloudiness. Cloud variability fluctuates in time, due to diurnal, synoptic and other' processes, but scaling exponents are found to be relatively stable. various approaches are considered for applying computed cloud scaling to subgrid cloud distributions used for radiation, beyond simple random or maximal overlap now in common use. Considerably more work is needed to compare model cloud scaling with observations. This will be aided by increased availability of high-resolution surface, aircraft and satellite data, and by the increasing resolution of global models,

Cahalan, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Development of a Simulated Data Set for the SeaWiFS Mission

A realistic simulated data set is essential for mission readiness preparations and can potentially assist in all phases of ground support for a future mission. Such a data set was created for the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), a global ocean color mission due for launch in 1997. This data set incorporates a representation of virtually every known aspect of the flight mission. Thus, it provides a high fidelity data set for testing most phases of the ground system, Including data processing, data transfers, calibration and validation, quality control, and mission operations. The data set is constructed for a seven-day period, March 25-31, 1994. Specific features of the data set: it includes Global Area Coverage (GAC), recorded Local Area Coverage (LAC), and real-time High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRFIT) data for the seven-day period; it includes a realistic orbit which is propagated using a Brouwer-Lyddane model with drag; the data correspond to a command schedule based on the orbit for this seven-day period; it includes total (at-satellite) radiances for ocean, land, clouds, and ice; it utilizes a high-resolution land/sea mask; it includes actual SeaWiFS spectral responses; it includes the actual sensor saturation responses; it is formatted according to current onboard data structures; and it includes corresponding telemetry (instrument and spacecraft) data. The methods are described and some examples of the output are given.

Gregg, Watson W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity Studies for Space-Based Global Measurements of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is well known as the primary forcing agent of global warming. Although the climate forcing due to CO2 is well known, the sources and sinks of CO2 are not well understood. Currently the lack of global atmospheric CO2 observations limits our ability to diagnose the global carbon budget (e.g., finding the so-called "missing sink") and thus limits our ability to understand past climate change and predict future climate response. Space-based techniques are being developed to make high-resolution and high-precision global column CO2 measurements. One of the proposed techniques utilizes the passive remote sensing of Earth's reflected solar radiation at the weaker vibration-rotation band of CO2 in the near infrared (approx. 1.57 micron). We use a line-by-line radiative transfer model to explore the potential of this method. Results of sensitivity studies for CO2 concentration variation and geophysical conditions (i.e., atmospheric temperature, surface reflectivity, solar zenith angle, aerosol, and cirrus cloud) will be presented. We will also present sensitivity results for an O2 A-band (approx. 0.76 micron) sensor that will be needed along with CO2 to make surface pressure and cloud height measurements.

Mao, Jian-Ping↗
NASA NTRS2001

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Chen, Baode↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Resolution Gravity and Time-Varying Gravity Field Recovery using GRACE and CHAMP

This progress report summarizes the research work conducted under NASA's Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Program 1998 (SENH98) entitled High Resolution Gravity and Time Varying Gravity Field Recovery Using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and CHAMP (Challenging Mini-satellite Package for Geophysical Research and Applications), which included a no-cost extension time period. The investigation has conducted pilot studies to use the simulated GRACE and CHAMP data and other in situ and space geodetic observable, satellite altimeter data, and ocean mass variation data to study the dynamic processes of the Earth which affect climate change. Results from this investigation include: (1) a new method to use the energy approach for expressing gravity mission data as in situ measurements with the possibility to enhance the spatial resolution of the gravity signal; (2) the method was tested using CHAMP and validated with the development of a mean gravity field model using CHAMP data, (3) elaborate simulation to quantify errors of tides and atmosphere and to recover hydrological and oceanic signals using GRACE, results show that there are significant aliasing effect and errors being amplified in the GRACE resonant geopotential and it is not trivial to remove these errors, and (4) quantification of oceanic and ice sheet mass changes in a geophysical constraint study to assess their contributions to global sea level change, while the results improved significant over the use of previous studies using only the SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging)-determined zonal gravity change data, the constraint could be further improved with additional information on mantle rheology, PGR (Post-Glacial Rebound) and ice loading history. A list of relevant presentations and publications is attached, along with a summary of the SENH investigation generated in 2000.

Shum, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Importance of Chaos and Lenticulae on Europa for the JIMO Mission

The Galileo Solid State Imaging (SSI) experiment provided high-resolution images of Europa's surface allowing identification of surface features barely distinguishable at Voyager's resolution. SSI revealed the visible pitting on Europa's surface to be due to large disrupted features, chaos, and smaller sub-circular patches, lenticulae. Chaos features contain a hummocky matrix material and commonly contain dislocated blocks of ridged plains. Lenticulae are morphologically interrelated and can be divided into three classes: domes, spots, and micro-chaos. Domes are broad, upwarped features that generally do not disrupt the texture of the ridged plains. Spots are areas of low albedo that are generally smooth in texture compared to other units. Micro-chaos are disrupted features with a hummocky matrix material, resembling that observed within chaos regions. Chaos and lenticulae are ubiquitous in the SSI regional map observations, which average approximately 200 meters per pixel (m/pxl) in resolution, and appear in several of the ultra-high resolution, i.e., better than 50 m/pxl, images of Europa as well. SSI also provided a number of multi-spectral observations of chaos and lenticulae. Using this dataset we have undertaken a thorough study of the morphology, size, spacing, stratigraphy, and color of chaos and lenticulae to determine their properties and evaluate models of their formation. Geological mapping indicates that chaos and micro-chaos have a similar internal morphology of in-situ degradation suggesting that a similar process was operating during their formation. The size distribution denotes a dominant size of 4-8 km in diameter for features containing hummocky material (i.e., chaos and micro-chaos). Results indicate a dominant spacing of 15 - 36 km apart. Chaos and lenticulae are generally among the youngest features stratigraphically observed on the surface, suggesting a recent change in resurfacing style. Also, the reddish non-icy materials on Europa's surface have high concentrations in many chaos and lenticulae features. Nonetheless, a complete global map of the distribution of chaos and lenticulae is not possible with the SSI dataset. Only <20% of the surface has been imaged at 200 m/pxl or better resolution, mostly of the near-equatorial regions. Color and ultra-high-res images have much less surface coverage. Thus we suggest that full global imaging of Europa at 200 m/pxl or better resolution, preferably in multi-spectral wavelengths, should be a high priority for the JIMO mission.

Spaun, Nicole A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP)

The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Cline, D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Improved Thin Cirrus and Terminator Cloud Detection in CERES Cloud Mask

Thin cirrus clouds account for about 20-30% of the total cloud coverage and affect the global radiation budget by increasing the Earth's albedo and reducing infrared emissions. Thin cirrus, however, are often underestimated by traditional satellite cloud detection algorithms. This difficulty is caused by the lack of spectral contrast between optically thin cirrus and the surface in techniques that use visible (0.65 micron ) and infrared (11 micron ) channels. In the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Aqua Edition 1 (AEd1) and Terra Edition 3 (TEd3) Cloud Masks, thin cirrus detection is significantly improved over both land and ocean using a technique that combines MODIS high-resolution measurements from the 1.38 and 11 micron channels and brightness temperature differences (BTDs) of 11-12, 8.5-11, and 3.7-11 micron channels. To account for humidity and view angle dependencies, empirical relationships were derived with observations from the 1.38 micron reflectance and the 11-12 and 8.5-11 micron BTDs using 70 granules of MODIS data in 2002 and 2003. Another challenge in global cloud detection algorithms occurs near the day/night terminator where information from the visible 0.65 micron channel and the estimated solar component of 3.7 micron channel becomes less reliable. As a result, clouds are often underestimated or misidentified near the terminator over land and ocean. Comparisons between the CLAVR-x (Clouds from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer [AVHRR]) cloud coverage and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) measurements north of 60 N indicate significant amounts of missing clouds from CLAVR-x because this part of the world was near the day/night terminator viewed by AVHRR. Comparisons between MODIS cloud products (MOD06) and GLAS in the same region also show similar difficulties with MODIS cloud retrievals. The consistent detection of clouds through out the day is needed to provide reliable cloud and radiation products for CERES and other research efforts involving the modeling of clouds and their interaction with the radiation budget.

Trepte, Qing↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Model-based Interpretation of Low-frequency Changes in the Carbon Cycle during the Last 120,000 years and its Implications for the Reconstruction of Atmospheric (delta) 14-C

A main caveat in the interpretation of observed changes in atmospheric (Delta)C-l4 during the last 50,000 years is the unknown variability of the carbon cycle, which together with changes in the C-14 production rates determines the C-14 dynamics. A plausible scenario explaining glacial/interglacial dynamics seen in atmospheric CO2 and (delta)C-13 was proposed recently (Kohler et al., 2005a). A similar approach that expands its interpretation to the C-14 cycle is an important step toward a deeper understanding of (Delta)C-14 variability. This approach is based on an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle (BICYCLE) to reproduce low-frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 as seen in Antarctic ice cores. The model is forced forward in time by various paleoclimatic records derived from ice and sediment cores. The simulation results of our proposed scenario match a compiled CO2 record from various ice cores during the last 120,000 years with high accuracy (r(sup 2) = 0.89). We analyze scenarios with different C-14 production rates, which are either constant or based on Be-10 measured in Greenland ice cores or the recent high-resolution geomagnetic field reconstruction GLOPIS-75 and compare them with the available (Delta)C-14 data covering the last 50,000 years. Our results suggest that during the last glacial cycle in general less than 110%0o f the increased atmospheric (Delta)C-14 is based on variations in the carbon cycle, while the largest part (5/6) of the variations has to be explained by other factors. Glacial atmospheric (Delta)C-14 larger than 700% cannot not be explained within our framework, neither through carbon cycle-based changes nor through variable C-14 production. Superimposed on these general trends might lie positive anomalies in atmospheric (Delta)C-14 of approx. 50% caused by millennial-scale variability of the northern deep water production during Heinrich events and Dansgaard/Oeschger climate fluctuations. According to our model, the dominant processes that increase glacial (Delta)C-14 are a reduced glacial ocean circulation (+ approx.40%0), a restricted glacial gas exchange between the atmosphere and the surface ocean through sea ice coverage (+ approx. 20%), and the enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon with C-14 in the surface waters through isotopic fractionation during higher glacial marine export production caused by iron fertilization (+ approx.10%).

Koehler, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2006

Introduction to MODIS Cloud Products

The Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle are fundamentally coupled with the distribution and properties of clouds. Therefore, the ability to remotely infer cloud properties and their variation in space and time is crucial for establishing climatologies as a reference for validation of present-day climate models and in assessing future climate change. Remote cloud observations also provide data sets useful for testing and improving cloud model physics, and for assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagers on the Terra and Aqua Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms provide the capability for globally retrieving these properties using passive solar reflectance and infrared techniques. In addition to providing measurements similar to those offered on a suite of historical operational weather platforms such as the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), MODIS provides additional spectral and/or spatial resolution in key atmospheric bands, along with on-board calibration, to expand the capability for global cloud property retrievals. The core MODIS operational cloud products include cloud top pressure, thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, particle size, and water path, and are derived globally at spatial resolutions of either 1- or 5-km (referred to as Level-2 or pixel-level products). In addition, the MODIS atmosphere team (collectively providing cloud, aerosol, and clear sky products) produces a combined gridded product (referred to as Level-3) aggregated to a 1 equal-angle grid, available for daily, eight-day, and monthly time periods. The wealth of information available from these products provides critical information for climate studies as well as the continuation and improved understanding of existing satellite-based cloud climatologies derived from heritage instruments. This chapter provides an overview of the MODIS Level-2 and -3 operational cloud products.

Baum, Bryan A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Combined MODIS/AMSR-E SST Composites for Regional Weather Applications

Recent applications of a high resolution MODlS composite SST product have clearly shown the importance of developing high-resolution SST data sets for coastal applications and modeling. In general, coupling between the oceans and atmospheres has been closely linked to SST gradients and fronts, indicating a need for high resolution SSTs, specifically in the areas of large gradients associated with coastal regions. Thus an accurate determination of SST gradients has become critical for determining the appropriate air-sea coupling and the influence on ocean modeling. Recent research is focused on improving the accuracy and spatial coverage of the current operational MODIS SST composite product provided by the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) project and distributed to the community. GHRSST-PP MODlS data and microwave AMSR-E data are being combined to produce composite data sets for both the West Coast and East Coast of the United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. The use of 1 km MODIS data has explicit advantages over other SST products including its global coverage and high resolution. The AMSR-E data will reduce the latency of the composites. A strategy for utilizing the error characteristics contained in the GHRSST data has been developed. This strategy will include using the error characteristics directly to calculate weights in the SST composites, uncertainty maps based on the composite biases and RMS errors, and latency products calculated in the compositing process. Recent accomplishments include the development of an enhanced compositing approach based on the error-weighted combination of recent clear MODIS SST values, where the error contributions come from measurement error, potential cloud contamination, and data latency sources. Future plans call for the inclusion of AMSR-E SST values with appropriate weights based upon measurement accuracy, MODIS-AMSR-E SST bias, and latency.

Jedlovec, Gary↗
NASA NTRS2009

Simulating the Effects of Irrigation over the U.S. in a Land Surface Model Based on Satellite Derived Agricultural Data

A novel method is introduced for integrating satellite derived irrigation data and high-resolution crop type information into a land surface model (LSM). The objective is to improve the simulation of land surface states and fluxes through better representation of agricultural land use. Ultimately, this scheme could enable numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to capture land-atmosphere feedbacks in managed lands more accurately and thus improve forecast skill. Here we show that application of the new irrigation scheme over the continental US significantly influences the surface water and energy balances by modulating the partitioning of water between the surface and the atmosphere. In our experiment, irrigation caused a 12% increase in evapotranspiration (QLE) and an equivalent reduction in the sensible heat flux (QH) averaged over all irrigated areas in the continental US during the 2003 growing season. Local effects were more extreme: irrigation shifted more than 100 W/m from QH to QLE in many locations in California, eastern Idaho, southern Washington, and southern Colorado during peak crop growth. In these cases, the changes in ground heat flux (QG), net radiation (RNET), evapotranspiration (ET), runoff (R), and soil moisture (SM) were more than 3 W/m(sup 2), 20 W/m(sup 2), 5 mm/day, 0.3 mm/day, and 100 mm, respectively. These results are highly relevant to continental- to global-scale water and energy cycle studies that, to date, have struggled to quantify the effects of agricultural management practices such as irrigation. Based on the results presented here, we expect that better representation of managed lands will lead to improved weather and climate forecasting skill when the new irrigation scheme is incorporated into NWP models such as NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS).

Ozdogan, Mutlu↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being developed by NASA in response to the National Research Council s Decadal Survey. SMAP will make global measurements of the moisture present at Earth's land surface and will distinguish frozen from thawed land surfaces. Direct observations of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state from space will allow significantly improved estimates of water, energy and carbon transfers between land and atmosphere. Soil moisture measurements are also of great importance in assessing flooding and monitoring drought. SMAP observations can help mitigate these natural hazards, resulting in potentially great economic and social benefits. SMAP soil moisture and freeze/thaw timing observations will also reduce a major uncertainty in quantifying the global carbon balance by helping to resolve an apparent missing carbon sink on land over the boreal latitudes. The SMAP mission concept would utilize an L-band radar and radiometer. These instruments will share a rotating 6-meter mesh reflector antenna to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every two to three days. The SMAP instruments provide direct measurements of surface conditions. In addition, the SMAP project will use these observations with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide deeper root-zone soil moisture and estimates of land surface-atmosphere exchanges of water, energy and carbon. SMAP is scheduled for a 2014 launch date

Entekhabi, Dara↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes During SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

This article investigates the role of the Saharan air layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a nondeveloping and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African. Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because they both interact heavily with Saharan air. A glottal data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System. version 5 (GEOS-5), is being run to produce a set of high-9 uality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with additional satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same authors, the duality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 five-day high-resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results indicate that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses, even at great distances from their source over the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole in the vertiieat (warm above, cool below) is present in the nondeveloping case. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spoctroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites shows that aerosol optical thickness, indicative of more dust as opposed to other factors, is higher in the nondeveloping case. Altogether, results suggest that the radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 km can capture the large-scale transport and the tine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression that has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. Thcse effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions, therefore global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold necessary to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗