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DOE OSTI2024

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A hybrid data–model approach to map soil thickness in mountain hillslopes

Abstract. Soil thickness plays a central role in the interactions between vegetation, soils, and topography, where it controls the retention and release of water, carbon, nitrogen, and metals. However, mapping soil thickness, here defined as the mobile regolith layer, at high spatial resolution remains challenging. Here, we develop a hybrid model that combines a process-based model and empirical relationships to estimate the spatial heterogeneity of soil thickness with fine spatial resolution (0.5 m). We apply this model to two aspects of hillslopes (southwest- and northeast-facing, respectively) in the East River watershed in Colorado. Two independent measurement methods – auger and cone penetrometer – are used to sample soil thickness at 78 locations to calibrate the local value of unconstrained parameters within the hybrid model. Sensitivity analysis using the hybrid model reveals that the diffusion coefficient used in hillslope diffusion modeling has the largest sensitivity among all input parameters. In addition, our results from both sampling and modeling show that, in general, the northeast-facing hillslope has a deeper soil layer than the southwest-facing hillslope. By comparing the soil thickness estimated between a machine-learning approach and this hybrid model, the hybrid model provides higher accuracy and requires less sampling data. Modeling results further reveal that the southwest-facing hillslope has a slightly faster surface soil erosion rate and soil production rate than the northeast-facing hillslope, which suggests that the relatively less dense vegetation cover and drier surface soils on the southwest-facing slopes influence soil properties. With seven parameters in total for calibration, this hybrid model can provide a realistic soil thickness map with a relatively small amount of sampling dataset comparing to machine-learning approach. Integrating process-based modeling and statistical analysis not only provides a thorough understanding of the fundamental mechanisms for soil thickness prediction but also integrates the strengths of both statistical approaches and process-based modeling approaches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Downscaling atmospheric chemistry simulations with physically consistent deep learning

Abstract. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network (CNN)-based super resolution can be used to downscale atmospheric chemistry simulations with substantially higher accuracy than conventional downscaling methods. This work both demonstrates the downscaling capabilities of modern CNN-based single image super resolution and video super-resolution schemes and develops modifications to these schemes to ensure they are appropriate for use with physical science data. The CNN-based video super-resolution schemes in particular incur only 39 % to 54 % of the grid-cell-level error of interpolation schemes and generate outputs with extremely realistic small-scale variability based on multiple perceptual quality metrics while performing a large (8×10) increase in resolution in the spatial dimensions. Methods are introduced to strictly enforce physical conservation laws within CNNs, perform large and asymmetric resolution changes between common model grid resolutions, account for non-uniform grid-cell areas, super-resolve lognormally distributed datasets, and leverage additional inputs such as high-resolution climatologies and model state variables. High-resolution chemistry simulations are critical for modeling regional air quality and for understanding future climate, and CNN-based downscaling has the potential to generate these high-resolution simulations and ensembles at a fraction of the computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Noise-Based Selection of Robust Inherited Model for Accurate Continual Learning

There is a growing demand for an intelligent system to continually learn knowledge from a data stream. Continual learning requires both the preservation of previous knowledge (i.e., avoiding catastrophic forgetting) and the acquisition of new knowledge. Different from previous works that focus only on model adaptation (e.g., regularization, network expansion, memory rehearsal, etc.), we propose a novel training scheme named acquisitive learning (AL), which emphasizes both the knowledge inheritance and knowledge acquisition. AL starts from an elaborately selected model with pre-trained knowledge (the inherited model) and then adapts it to new data using segmented training. The selection is achieved by injecting random noise to various inherited models for better model robustness, which promises higher accuracy in further knowledge acquisition. The approach is validated by the visualization of the loss landscape and quantitative roughness measurement. The combination of the selective inherited model and knowledge acquisition reduces catastrophic forgetting by 10X on the CIFAR-100 dataset.

Du, Xiaocong↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks for Constraining Cosmological Parameters Across Multiple Data Sets

Deep learning models have been shown to outperform methods that rely on summary statistics, like the power spectrum, in extracting information from complex cosmological data sets. However, due to differences in the subgrid physics implementation and numerical approximations across different simulation suites, models trained on data from one cosmological simulation show a drop in performance when tested on another. Similarly, models trained on any of the simulations would also likely experience a drop in performance when applied to observational data. Training on data from two different suites of the CAMELS hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, we examine the generalization capabilities of Domain Adaptive Graph Neural Networks (DA-GNNs). By utilizing GNNs, we capitalize on their capacity to capture structured scale-free cosmological information from galaxy distributions. Moreover, by including unsupervised domain adaptation via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we enable our models to extract domain-invariant features. We demonstrate that DA-GNN achieves higher accuracy and robustness on cross-dataset tasks (up to $28\%$ better relative error and up to almost an order of magnitude better $\chi^2$). Using data visualizations, we show the effects of domain adaptation on proper latent space data alignment. This shows that DA-GNNs are a promising method for extracting domain-independent cosmological information, a vital step toward robust deep learning for real cosmic survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nature-GL: A Revolutionary Learning Paradigm Unleashing Nature’s Power in Real-World Spatial-Temporal Graph Learning

Spatial-Temporal Graph Learning (ST-GL) is a prominent research area due to its unique capability to effectively learn real-world graphs. Applications of ST-GL pose stringent and various demands on not only real-time inference with low energy cost and high ac- curacy but also fast training. Unfortunately, as Moore’s Law approaches its limits and ST-GL model complexity drastically grows, the gap between digital hardware’s computational power and ST- GL application demands is widening. In response, this paper introduces Nature-GL, a nature-powered graph learning paradigm that exploits the principle of entropy increase to advance graph learning. In particular, Nature-GL transforms both the training and inference of real-valued ST-GL into electron-speed natural anneal- ing processes of a parameterized dynamical system that represents the target graphs. Experimental results across four real-world ap- plications with six datasets demonstrate that Nature-GL achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups in both training and inference, delivering higher accuracy compared to Graph Neural Networks.

Liu, Chuan [University of Rochester]↗

DOE OSTI2024

SimPoint++: Less Simulation Points

We propose SimPoint++, which replaces the BIC method by combining WCSS and Silhouette to find the optimal cluster. The new Python framework of SimPoint++ provides a dimension reduction pipeline for effective clustering and supports multi-thread application analysis. We evaluate SimPoint++ with Spec CPU 2017 benchmarks. SimPoint++ achieves comparable or higher accuracy with significantly fewer simulation points, resulting in a 5x speed-up in simulation time compared to state-of-the-art solutions.

Chen, Si↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the Recoverability of Reactor Dynamics from Point Kinetics Data using SINDYc

Data driven models for reactor dynamics tend to face a few notable challenges. First, the broad range of timescales present across the various feedback mechanisms. Next, high standards for safety and importance of model performance in all operational domains. Finally, the correlations between state variables observed in most transients leads to difficulties when methods attempt to attribute certain dynamic phenomena to a particular cause. The current paper seeks to support efforts towards incorporating physics knowledge into one particular data-driven method for finding reactor dynamics called ``Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDYc). The incorporation of physical knowledge into SINDYc will help address the challenges listed above by giving the model an initial understanding of the system being modeled. The demonstration of an exact representation of a set of point reactor dynamics equations in SINDYc is provided. Then, this allows for further discussion with mathematical justification as to why SINDYc, and other data-driven methods, may be difficult to apply to nuclear reactor dynamics due to correlations in the state variables. A particularly useful result of this work is the set of candidate functions required in SINDYc to exactly represent the reactor dynamics under a point approximation. In the future, SINDYc can be integrated with point models for reactor dynamics before being applied to the physical system to yield higher accuracy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ambient Synchrophasor Measurement Based System Inertia Estimation

This paper develops an algorithm to estimate the system inertia value based on ambient synchrophasor measurement. Informative features are extracted from ambient synchrophasor measurements for machine-learning-based inertia estimation. Besides ambient synchrophasor measurements of FNET/GridEye, other available data relevant to inertia (such as weather and system load data) are also used to improve the inertia estimation accuracy. Then a machine learning algorithm to estimate system inertia is developed. A test dataset including ambient synchrophasor data from FNET/GridEye measurements and the WECC system inertia data from NERC is used to evaluate the performance of the developed inertia estimation method. The average and maximum estimation errors of the developed inertia estimation method is lower than 5% and 10%, respectively. This accuracy is higher than reported accuracy values in existing literature.

CUI, YI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Modified Sequence-to-point HVAC Load Disaggregation Algorithm

This paper presents a modified sequence-to-point (S2P) algorithm for disaggregating the heat, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load from the total building electricity consumption. The original S2P model is convolutional neural network (CNN) based, which uses load profiles as inputs. We propose three modifications. First, the input convolution layer is changed from 1D to 2D so that normalized temperature profiles are also used inputs to the S2P model. Second, a drop-out layer is added to improve adaptability and generalizability so that the model trained in one area can be transferred to other geographical areas without labelled HVAC data. Third, a fine-tuning process is proposed for areas with a small amount of labelled HVAC data so that the pre-trained S2P model can be fine-tuned to achieve higher disaggregation accuracy (i.e., better transferability) in other areas. The model is first trained and tested using smart meter and sub-metered HVAC data collected in Austin, Texas. Then, the trained model is tested on two other areas: Boulder, Colorado and San Diego, California. Simulation results show that the proposed modified S2P algorithm outperforms the original S2P model and the support-vector machine based approach in accuracy, adaptability, and transferability.

Ye, Kai↗

DOE OSTI2020

Overset meshes for incompressible flows: On preserving accuracy of underlying discretizations

This study on overset meshes for incompressible-flow simulations is motivated by accurate prediction of wind farm aerodynamics involving large motions and deformations of components with complex geometry. Specifically, using first-order hyperbolic and elliptic equation proxies for the incompressible Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, we investigate the influence of information exchange between overset meshes on numerical performance where the underlying discretization is second-order accurate. The first aspect of information exchange surrounds interpolation of solution where we examine Lagrange and point-cloud-based interpolation for creating constraint equations between overset meshes. To maintain overall second-order accuracy, higher-order interpolation is required for elliptic problems, but linear interpolation is sufficient for hyperbolic problems in first-order form. Higher-order point-cloud-based interpolation provides a pathway to maintaining accuracy in unstructured meshes, but at higher complexity. The second aspect of information exchange focuses on comparing the approaches of overset single system (OSS) and overset Additive Schwarz (OAS) for coupling the linear systems of the overlapping meshes. While the former involves a single linear system, in the latter the discrete linear systems are solved separately, and solving the global system is accomplished through outer iterations and sequential information exchange in a Jacobi fashion. For the test cases studied, accuracy for hyperbolic problems is maintained by performing two outer iterations, whereas many outer iterations are required for elliptic systems. The order-of-accuracy studies explored here are critical for verifying the overset-mesh coupling algorithms used in engineering simulations. Accuracy of these simulations themselves is, however, quantified using engineering quantities of interest such as drag, power, etc. Consequently, we conclude with numerical experiments using NS equations for incompressible flows where we show that linear interpolation and few outer iterations are sufficient for achieving asymptotic convergence of engineering quantities of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Event Detection in Synchrophasor Data with Graph Signal Processing

Online detection of anomalies is crucial to enhancing the reliability and resiliency of power systems. We propose a novel data-driven online event detection algorithm with synchrophasor data using graph signal processing. In addition to being extremely scalable, our proposed algorithm can accurately capture and leverage the spatio-temporal correlations of the streaming PMU data. This paper also develops a general technique to decouple spatial and temporal correlations in multiple time series. Finally, we develop a unique framework to construct a weighted adjacency matrix and graph Laplacian for product graph. Case studies with real-world, large-scale synchrophasor data demonstrate the scalability and accuracy of our proposed event detection algorithm. Compared to the state-of-the-art benchmark, the proposed method not only achieves higher detection accuracy but also yields higher computational efficiency.

Event detection↗

DOE OSTI2020

Online Event Detection in Synchrophasor Data with Graph Signal Processing

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient models for aqueous organic redox flow batteries

The rising usage of intermittent energy has garnered the need for large scale energy storage systems. Redox flow batteries (RFB) based energy storage system shows promising potential. Numerical simulations and machine learning approaches have been widely used to study RFB performance. The development of autonomous material discovery framework and digital twin of energy storage system usually needs to query cell performance through fast response models. In this study, two computationally efficient models are introduced: a physics-based analytical flow battery model (EZBattery), and a machine learning operator model (Deep Operator Network, denoted by DeepONet). Both models can provide cell performance near instantly, and prediction accuracy was systematically examined on an application of evaluating the performances of a 780 cm 2 aqueous organic redox flow battery (AORFB), using potential anolyte candidates in dihydroxyphenazine (DHP)-based family of organic materials. A validated computationally expansive 3-dimensional multi-physics finite element model by COMSOL was used as the ground truth and provided the training data set for the DeepONet. 1280 samples were generated with 10 properties to mimic the different possible anolyte candidates, and the cell performances were evaluated under 10 different combined operating conditions. The accuracy comparisons for the two computationally efficient models show that both models can provide comparable accuracy in predicting cell charging/discharging voltage curves. DeepONet can provide slightly higher overall accuracy than EZBattery with faster calculation speed, but highly relies on the training dataset. EZBattery does not need a training dataset and can provide interpretable physics-based explanations of the results, while being more flexible to adjust to adapt any different cell designs, flow battery architectures, and electrolyte materials.

Analytical model↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spectral deferred correction methods for high-order accuracy in poroelastic problems

In this work, we investigate high-order accuracy in time integration by examining two operator splitting methods for poroelastic problems: the two-pass and the spectral deferred correction (SDC) methods. To enhance the order of accuracy, the two-pass method partitions a coupled operator symmetrically, whereas the SDC method corrects truncation errors by establishing an error equation. These high-order methods are applied to underlying solution strategies, i.e., monolithic, fixed-stress sequential, and undrained sequential methods. We observe that semi-discretized systems from spatial discretization have forms similar to those of index-1 differential algebraic equations (DAEs), causing order reduction against the two-pass method when it is used in conjunction with either the monolithic or sequential method. On the other hand, the SDC in conjunction with the monolithic method exhibits the desired second-order accuracy in poroelastic problems while increasing the order of accuracy for index-1 DAEs. However, the SDC in conjunction with either of the two sequential methods does not achieve the desired order of accuracy, and maintains first order because the flow equation for poroelasticity has an additional approximation associated with the volumetric strain rate term, which does not yield exactly the same forms as those of conventional DAEs. Thus, the monolithic SDC method can achieve higher-order accuracy, but may require higher computational costs because it involves solving matrix systems larger than those for the sequential methods.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Arbitrary Order Virtual Element Methods for High‐Order Phase‐Field Modeling of Dynamic Fracture

ABSTRACT Accurate modeling of fracture nucleation and propagation in brittle and ductile materials subjected to dynamic loading is important in predicting material damage and failure under extreme conditions. Phase‐field fracture models have garnered a lot of attention in recent years due to their success in representing damage and fracture processes in a wide class of materials and under a variety of loading conditions. Second‐order phase‐field fracture models are by far the most popular among researchers (and increasingly, among practitioners), but fourth‐order models have started to gain broader acceptance since their more recent introduction. The exact solution corresponding to these high‐order phase‐field fracture models has higher regularity. Thus, numerical solutions of the model equations can achieve improved accuracy and higher spatial convergence rates. In this work, we develop a virtual element framework for the high‐order phase‐field model of dynamic fracture. The virtual element method (VEM) can be regarded as a generalization of the classical finite element method. In addition to many other desirable characteristics, the VEM allows computing on polytopal meshes. Here, we use ‐conforming virtual elements and the generalized‐ time integration method for the momentum balance equation, and adopt ‐conforming virtual elements for the high‐order phase‐field equation. We verify our virtual element framework using classical quasi‐static benchmark problems and demonstrate its capabilities with the aid of numerical simulations of dynamic fracture in brittle materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗