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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Vandenberg Air Force Base Upper Level Wind Launch Weather Constraints

The 30th Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) provides comprehensive weather services to the space program at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. One of their responsibilities is to monitor upper-level winds to ensure safe launch operations of the Minuteman III ballistic missile. The 30 OSSWF tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to analyze VAFB sounding data with the goal of determining the probability of violating (PoV) their upper-level thresholds for wind speed and shear constraints specific to this launch vehicle, and to develop a tool that will calculate the PoV of each constraint on the day of launch. In order to calculate the probability of exceeding each constraint, the AMU collected and analyzed historical data from VAFB. The historical sounding data were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory archive for the years 1994-2011 and then stratified into four sub-seasons: January-March, April-June, July-September, and October-December. The maximum wind speed and 1000-ft shear values for each sounding in each subseason were determined. To accurately calculate the PoV, the AMU determined the theoretical distributions that best fit the maximum wind speed and maximum shear datasets. Ultimately it was discovered that the maximum wind speeds follow a Gaussian distribution while the maximum shear values follow a lognormal distribution. These results were applied when calculating the averages and standard deviations needed for the historical and real-time PoV calculations. In addition to the requirements outlined in the original task plan, the AMU also included forecast sounding data from the Rapid Refresh model. This information provides further insight for the launch weather officers (LWOs) when determining if a wind constraint violation will occur over the next few hours on day of launch. The interactive graphical user interface (GUI) for this project was developed in Microsoft Excel using Visual Basic for Applications. The GUI displays the critical sounding data easily and quickly for the LWOs on day of launch. This tool will replace the existing one used by the 30 OSSWF, assist the LWOs in determining the probability of exceeding specific wind threshold values, and help to improve the overall upper winds forecast for the launch customer.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Considerations for IC and Component Selection for Space Systems

This viewgraph presentation addresses the integrated cycling and component selection technologies for aerospace systems. The topics include: 1) Semiconductors: The Evolution of ICs - Availability and Technology; 2) IC Selection Requirements - three fields of thought, "The Good", "The Bad" and "The Ugly"; 3) Reliability and Radiation; 4) Radiation Perspective-Four methods of selecting ICs for space systems, Guaranteed hardness, historical ground-based radiation data, historical flight usage, and unknown assurance; 5) Understanding Risk, including risk trade space and ASICs and FPGA sample selection criteria.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware for Launch Vehicle System Reliability Models

Many launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using heritage and new hardware. In most cases, the heritage hardware undergoes modifications to fit new functional system requirements, impacting the failure rates and, ultimately, the reliability data. New hardware, which lacks historical data, is often compared to like systems when estimating failure rates. Some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Accurately characterizing the reliability data applicability and quality under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This presentation will demonstrate a data-source classification method that ranks reliability data according to applicability and quality criteria to a new launch vehicle. This method accounts for similarities/dissimilarities in source and applicability, as well as operating environments like vibrations, acoustic regime, and shock. This classification approach will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for additional data to reduce uncertainty.

Al Hassan Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2018

Long-Term Solar Activity Studies Using Microwave Imaging Observations and Prediction for Cycle 25

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar magnetic field and the active-regions, respectively. We also use the location of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations as a function of time. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness at one cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush to the pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3-5 cycles.

N. Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS1990

Success of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)

The paper provides historical data and presents two parameters for evaluating the success of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The TDRSS provides high rate data from missions such as the Shuttle and Landsats, and lower rate data from missions such as the Solar Mesosphere Explorer and the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite. Two parameters have been established as measurements of the ability of the system to transmit user commands and telemetry data, i.e., availability and proficiency. Availability is the system's readiness to support any and all user requirements 24 hours per day, 7 days per week. Proficiency is the ratio of actual support provided to scheduled support.

Harris, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Lifetime Prediction of Semiconductor Devices Using Hardware-in-the-Loop

This paper presents a unique approach to enable real-time lifespan prediction of semiconductor power modules using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) system. By integrating the module's overall loss characteristics-specifically switching and conduction losses-with a thermoelectric model of the thermal management system, this research demonstrates that the model can dynamically estimates the junction temperature profile of the semiconductor devices in response to a changing torque demand profile for the motor drive system. This capability enables continuous monitoring of the module's operational time and cumulative stress induced on the devices to compute accumulated remaining lifetime or time-to-failure (TTF). This study provides an architectural framework for the HIL system with high-fidelity component models of multiple physical domains, allowing simulation of dynamic behaviors of a closely-coupled motor drive system. The advanced real-time computation and measurement functionalities of the HIL system allow for both dynamic lifetime calculations based on simulated data and aggregate lifetime predictions utilizing historical data. Moreover, this paper details an algorithm that not only computes cumulative damage but also synthesizes these data into a comprehensive aggregated lifetime metric. This methodology can enhance the maintenance scheduling strategies and operational reliability of semiconductor devices in critical applications, ultimately extending their service life while optimizing performance.

hardware-in-the-loop (HIL)↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

MoSST DAS: The First Working Geomagnetic Data Assimilation System

The Earth possesses an internal magnetic field (geomagnetic field) generated by convection in the outer core (geodynamo). Previous efforts have been focused along two distinct paths: (1) numerical geodynamo modeling to understand the origin of the geomagnetic field, and the mechanisms of geomagnetic secular variations (SV); and (2) geomagnetic field modeling to map the spatial/temporal variations of the field from geomagnetic data, and to derive core properties, e.g. inversion of core flow near the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Geomagnetic data assimilation is a new approach emerged over the past 5 years: surface observations are assimilated with geodynamo models for better understanding of the core dynamical state, and accurately prediction of SV. In collaboration with several geomagnetic research groups, we have developed the first working geomagnetic data assimilation system, Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, and Three-dimensional (MoSST) DAS, that includes the MoSST numerical dynamo model; 7000 years of geomagnetic field maps from several field models utilizing satellite and ground observatory data, historical magnetic records and archeo/paleo magnetic data; and an ensemble based optimal interpolation (01) assimilation algorithm. With this system, we have demonstrated clearly that the assimilated core dynamical state is substantially different from those of pure geodynamo simulations. Ensemble assimilation runs also show the convergence of the assimilated solutions inside the core, suggesting that the simulation state is pulled closer to the truth via data assimilation. The forecasts from this system are also very accurate: the 5-year forecast of the geomagnetic field agrees very well with the observations; and the 5-year secular variation forecast is more accurate than the IGRF SV forecast models in the past. Using geomagnetic records up to 2009, we have made an SV forecast for the period from 2010-2015, and is a candidate SV model for IGRF-11.

Kuang, Weijia↗
DOE OSTI2020

Retrofit-ability: A supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policies and programs

Building Energy Use Intensity (EUI) has been commonly used to facilitate policy makers and utilities to design energy efficacy programs and help building managers prioritize investment in building upgrades. Buildings with higher EUIs are usually chosen as better candidates for retrofit. Our study of nearly one hundred buildings in Seattle’s Building Tune Up Accelerator program and thousands of buildings in the Asset Score database reveals that EUI (after weather/location/use type normalization) alone is not the best indicator of a building’s potential to save energy, especially for those buildings in the mid-range (30-70 percentile EUI). In this paper, we introduce the concept of “retrofit-ability” — a building’s real potential to reduce its energy use cost-effectively — as a supplementary metric to inform energy efficiency policy and investment. Currently, such potential analyses are predicted for a building stock using prototypical building models or statistical data. However, typical buildings or general historical data may not sufficiently represent building configurations in a portfolio and predict their saving potentials. We utilized machine learning to investigate how key building characteristics (such as envelope attributes, HVAC type, location, use type, etc.) affect a building’s improvement potentials and developed a low-cost method to quantify such potentials for a portfolio of buildings. The supplementary perspective provided by “retrofit-ability” highlights which building assets correlate most with a building’s energy savings potential across region, building use type and more.

Wang, Na↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cybersecurity impact of the growth of data in sports

As the sporting industry continues to increase dependence on new and often massive data sets, they also risk exposing themselves, as well as the leagues, teams, venues, players, and fans, to risks posed by not protecting the confidentiality and integrity of this data. The industry, especially true for professional sports, demands an ever increasing supply of new forms of data to achieve their goals of enticing new fans; enhancing experience; expanding the fan experience from venues and television to the internet and mobile devices; measuring and evaluating the performance and safety of players; and increasing revenue. New methods have emerged to collect data about a variety of aspects of sports ranging from players to fans to teams to venues. Data collected during sporting events is combined with historical data to also help teams analyze and predict performance. To synthesize these predictive analytical and historical memories, sports teams and organizations mix a variety of computer technologies. System integration tends to focus on ensuring the availability of the data and reliability of the technologies but might introduce risks to the confidentiality (privacy) and integrity of the data. Recognizing the potential risks requires review and evaluation. Much of the data is collected for publicly providing information to the fans, so threats to confidentiality pose fewer risks. The greatest risk is violating the privacy of players, such a private performance test, or using technology to gain a competitive advantage.

Jenkins, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS1980

Automating the process of estimating spacecraft mass

To help prevent the problem of mass reduction late in a spacecraft development program, the process of estimating spacecraft mass has been formulated in algorithmic form and incorporated in software that will allow trained users to interface with the integral design parameters data base interactively. The software will use historical data to extrapolate future values of a given time-dependent parameter and be manipulated by a dynamic graphics configuration builder. Future expansions of this work promise to automate the entire conceptual mission design process.

Skinner, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Physical and Radiative Characteristic and Long-term Variability of the Okhotsk Sea Ice Cover

Much of what we know about the large scale characteristics of the Okhotsk Sea ice cover has been provided by ice concentration maps derived from passive microwave data. To understand what satellite data represent in a highly divergent and rapidly changing environment like the Okhotsk Sea, we take advantage of concurrent satellite, aircraft, and ship data acquired on 7 February and characterized the sea ice cover at different scales from meters to hundreds of kilometers. Through comparative analysis of surface features using co-registered data from visible, infrared and microwave channels we evaluated the general radiative and physical characteristics of the ice cover as well as quantify the distribution of different ice types in the region. Ice concentration maps from AMSR-E using the standard sets of channels, and also only the 89 GHz channel for optimal resolution, are compared with aircraft and high resolution visible data and while the standard set provides consistent results, the 89 GHz provides the means to observe mesoscale patterns and some unique features of the ice cover. Analysis of MODIS data reveals that thick ice types represents about 37% of the ice cover indicating that young and new ice types represent a large fraction of the ice cover that averages about 90% ice concentration according to passive microwave data. These results are used to interpret historical data that indicate that the Okhotsk Sea ice extent and area are declining at a rapid rate of about -9% and -12 % per decade, respectively.

Nishio, Fumihiko↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Empirical Models for Communication Prediction of Spacecraft

A viable communication path to a spacecraft is vital for its successful operation. For human spaceflight, a reliable and predictable communication link between the spacecraft and the ground is essential not only for the safety of the vehicle and the success of the mission, but for the safety of the humans on board as well. However, analytical models of these communication links are challenged by unique characteristics of space and the vehicle itself. For example, effects of radio frequency during high energy solar events while traveling through a solar array of a spacecraft can be difficult to model, and thus to predict. This presentation covers the use of empirical methods of communication link predictions, using the International Space Station (ISS) and its associated historical data as the verification platform and test bed. These empirical methods can then be incorporated into communication prediction and automation tools for the ISS in order to better understand the quality of the communication path given a myriad of variables, including solar array positions, line of site to satellites, position of the sun, and other dynamic structures on the outside of the ISS. The image on the left below show the current analytical model of one of the communication systems on the ISS. The image on the right shows a rudimentary empirical model of the same system based on historical archived data from the ISS.

Quasny, Todd↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Ames Power Monitoring System

The Ames Power Monitoring System (APMS) is a centralized system of power meters, computer hardware, and specialpurpose software that collects and stores electrical power data by various facilities at Ames Research Center (ARC). This system is needed because of the large and varying nature of the overall ARC power demand, which has been observed to range from 20 to 200 MW. Large portions of peak demand can be attributed to only three wind tunnels (60, 180, and 100 MW, respectively). The APMS helps ARC avoid or minimize costly demand charges by enabling wind-tunnel operators, test engineers, and the power manager to monitor total demand for center in real time. These persons receive the information they need to manage and schedule energy-intensive research in advance and to adjust loads in real time to ensure that the overall maximum allowable demand is not exceeded. The APMS (see figure) includes a server computer running the Windows NT operating system and can, in principle, include an unlimited number of power meters and client computers. As configured at the time of reporting the information for this article, the APMS includes more than 40 power meters monitoring all the major research facilities, plus 15 Windows-based client personal computers that display real-time and historical data to users via graphical user interfaces (GUIs). The power meters and client computers communicate with the server using Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) on Ethernet networks, variously, through dedicated fiber-optic cables or through the pre-existing ARC local-area network (ARCLAN). The APMS has enabled ARC to achieve significant savings ($1.2 million in 2001) in the cost of power and electric energy by helping personnel to maintain total demand below monthly allowable levels, to manage the overall power factor to avoid low power factor penalties, and to use historical system data to identify opportunities for additional energy savings. The APMS also provides power engineers and electricians with the information they need to plan modifications in advance and perform day-to-day maintenance of the ARC electric-power distribution system.

Osetinsky, Leonid↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Shuttle Launch Probability Analysis: Understanding History so We Can Predict the Future

The Space Shuttle was launched 135 times and nearly half of those launches required 2 or more launch attempts. The Space Shuttle launch countdown historical data of 250 launch attempts provides a wealth of data that is important to analyze for strictly historical purposes as well as for use in predicting future launch vehicle launch countdown performance. This paper provides a statistical analysis of all Space Shuttle launch attempts including the empirical probability of launch on any given attempt and the cumulative probability of launch relative to the planned launch date at the start of the initial launch countdown. This information can be used to facilitate launch probability predictions of future launch vehicles such as NASA's Space Shuttle derived SLS. Understanding the cumulative probability of launch is particularly important for missions to Mars since the launch opportunities are relatively short in duration and one must wait for 2 years before a subsequent attempt can begin.

Cates, Grant R.↗