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At least 163 records · Page 9

Exploring the environmental drivers of human blastomycosis cases in the Midwestern United States

Blastomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the eastern United States (US) and Canada caused by the inhalation of the fungi Blastomyces spp. Currently, the environmental drivers of disease dynamics are poorly understood. The goal of our work was to explore what environmental conditions are associated with the annual presence of blastomycosis cases, and therefore are potentially explanatory of the ecological niche of Blastomyces. We examined the relationships between reported cases of blastomycosis in three Midwestern US states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) from 2007–2017 in relation to eleven hypothesized environmental conditions, including climate, stream and soil mineral content, and land cover variables. Then, we fit logistic regression models to explore the relationships between the environmental variables and yearly blastomycosis case occurrence. Mean soil moisture, stream sediment mercury content, percent of water within the county, and woody wetlands land cover were all positively associated with the presence of annual cases, with woody wetlands having the most consistent signal across the three states. We also found significant differences in the likelihood of case presence between US states that were not explained by the variables in our model, suggesting state-level differences in case reporting and disease awareness. Our results provide a perspective on potential biological hypotheses to further test regarding environmental controls on the life cycle and ecological niche of Blastomyces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

At the interfaces of the hydrologic sciences: Connecting water, elements, ecosystems, and people through the major contributions of Dr. Emily Bernhardt

Here, in this paper, we describe the major contributions of Professor Emily Bernhardt to the hydrologic sciences. Dr. Bernhardt’s work addresses how carbon, nutrient, and contaminant dynamics respond to a wide range of environmental perturbations that alter hydrologic dynamics within and connectivity among ecosystems. Her research leverages intensive and extensive field sampling, experimental manipulations, macroscale data harmonization and exploration, and continental to global-scale synthesis activities to uncover key drivers and patterns of the impacts human perturbations have on water and elemental cycles. Dr. Bernhardt’s research program is defined by her ability to ask questions and use approaches that explicitly consider connectivity and interfaces in a variety of ways. Here, we highlight significant contributions from Dr. Bernhardt’s work, organized by connectivity, interfaces, and interactions among and across (1) elemental cycles, (2) ecosystems, (3) watersheds, (4) scales, and (5) disciplines. We conclude with a section on Dr. Bernhardt’s impact on the hydrologic sciences and beyond through her exceptional dedication to mentorship, engagement, and service.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Natural Resources Assessment for the SNS Second Target Station, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education on the National Environmental Research Park represent potential impacts of federal actions. Moreover, federal actions that affect the quantity and quality of hunting opportunities and deer reduction harvest on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area must be considered whenever other aspects of the human environment (as defined by NEPA) are affected. The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a premiere facility at ORNL that provides advanced capabilities in neutron scattering to promote new discoveries and research opportunities in material sciences, physics, chemistry, biological sciences, and others. A conceptual design for a Second Target Station (STS) has been in consideration for several years. The STS is intended to complement and enhance existing ORNL capabilities, notably research and exploration of complex materials. The proposed STS will involve development of existing natural areas on the ORR, which might contain sensitive resources that require mitigation or avoidance in accordance with existing policies and regulation. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources within the STS project area. At the time of this report, the proposed STS project consisted of an operations area comprising 55.4 acres (22.4 ha) and a total review area for potential construction comprising ~224 acres (90.6 ha). The review area is located primarily within forested natural areas of the ORR with minor development in the form of power-line rights-of-way and secondary/graveled roads (Figure 1). The primary goal was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development of the STS. In addition to onthe-ground surveys during summer 2009 and fall 2019 to summer 2020 by ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled primarily from a 2013 forest inventory effort for Forest Management Compartment 17 and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2019. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result of interacting factors that affect plant and animal distribution and abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive ecoregions for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate and habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five species of mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal species recorded by camera traps at 6645 locations across the conterminous United States in a joint modelling framework to estimate relative abundance of each species. We then used a clustering analysis to describe 8 broad and 16 narrow mammal communities. Results Climate was the most important predictor of mammal abundance overall, while human population density and agriculture were less important, with mixed effects across species. Seed production by forests also predicted mammal abundance, especially hard‐mast tree species. The mammal community maps are similar to those of plants, with an east–west split driven by different dominant species of deer and squirrels. Communities vary along gradients of temperature in the east and precipitation in the west. Most fine‐scale mammal community boundaries aligned with established plant ecoregions and were distinguished by the presence of regional specialists or shifts in relative abundance of widespread species. Maps of potential ecosystem services provided by these communities suggest high herbivory in the Rocky Mountains and eastern forests, high invertebrate predation in the subtropical south and greater predation pressure on large vertebrates in the west. Main Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of climate to modern mammals and suggest that climate change will have strong impacts on these communities. Our new empirical approach to recognizing ecoregions has potential to be applied to expanded communities of mammals or other taxa.

Kays, Roland↗

Parking Strategies and Outcomes for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Operations

Parking spots are a premium commodity, especially in dense downtown settings, so this study examines the service impacts of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) parking in legal on- or off-street locations when idle across Travis County in Austin, Texas. Here, using an agent-based activity-based travel demand model with dynamic traffic simulation, two restricted-parking strategies for SAVs were simulated. SAVs either found the nearest available parking spot or the lowest-cost spot (via a tradeoff of parking fees and distance-based costs). Two comparisons were conducted to analyze the impacts of these strategies. First, two restricted parking strategies were compared, where SAVs park without competition with private human-driven vehicles (HVs) for parking locations. Second, a more realistic analysis compared two SAV parking strategies with a scenario where SAVs remain idle in place. Private HVs in all scenarios and strategies of this comparison park at the closest designated location unless they opt for private parking. Using a supply of 8,400 aggregated parking locations in Austin, this study simulated fleet performance under different trip demands, with SAV fares of $\$0.62$ per kilometer ($\$1$ per mile) plus a $\$1$ fixed pickup fee with dynamic ridesharing permitted. Parking costs were negligible in both SAV parking search strategies applied to the Austin network because of the region’s provision of mostly free parking. Requiring SAVs to park on designated on- and off-street parking locations and parking lots (restricted parking) also increased parking costs for HV drivers by up to 22% since SAVs occupied some free parking spaces, especially in the least-cost parking search strategy.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A Study of Financial Impacts of Pooled Rideshare Based on Assignment Strategies

This study explores the potential profitability of a pooled rideshare service in a simulation-based case study of two US metropolitan regions in the context of two fleet assignment strategies. A new method of obtaining more accurate fares is created to address scalability and accuracy assumptions relevant to pooling choice. Cases for private rideshare fleets, public mobility on demand offerings, and autonomous fleets are explored and analyzed. Two regions of differing types are explored to illustrate the impacts of geo-spatial demand density of profitability, with one region capturing a large urban and suburban environment and the second a less dense more compact small city. Results indicate that the cost of human drivers is prohibitively expensive, and regulation of driver pay extends the issue of financial viability. Despite these shortcomings, a more efficient rideshare assignment strategy is shown to increase profitability by as much as 60%. The smaller, more dense region was illustrated to experience a greater increase in profitability than the larger region when pooling was improved.

Paul, Joseph↗

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °C air –1 , –0.033 m °C air –1 and –9.7 d °C air –1 , respectively). Furthermore, these impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physical Education Teachers’ Representations of Their Training to Promote the Inclusion of Students with Disabilities

School inclusion is based on the need to adopt and implement a holistic view of education, training, and human development embodied in the idea of everyone, for everyone. In the context of Physical Education (PE), there are still several constraints to the realization of this universal desideratum. Among these, teacher training and qualification for the inclusion of students with Specific Health Needs (SHNs) stands out. That is, students with physical and mental health problems whose impact is significantly manifested in the learning process. Thus, the objective of this study was to identify the representations of PE teachers about their training to develop inclusive processes with students with SES. Participants in this study were 151 PE teachers from different regions and districts of Portugal (Algarve, Aveiro, Castelo Branco, Lisbon, Porto, and Viseu) who had 23.6 ± 8.1 years of teaching service. Teachers answered an online questionnaire, on the Google Forms platform, with open and closed questions about their education and training to develop inclusive processes in PE. The results indicate two significant dimensions: (1) initial training for teaching inclusive PE and (2) continuous training for inclusion. Regarding initial training, a large majority of the teachers under study, at the end of their initial training, did not have the essential skills to teach PE to students with SES. It was also identified that a large majority reported not having had any contact with students with SES throughout their training process for teaching. It was also recognized that this training was not adjusted to the development of intervention skills with students with SHN. Regarding continuous training, it was identified that attendance at this training increased their skills to teach PE to students with SHN. Workshops/actions/training courses are the main training models adopted. However, it is recognized that the training provided does not respond concretely to their training needs to intervene with students with SHN, since teachers essentially seek to improve intervention in the context of inclusive physical education. We conclude that teacher training for inclusion is not yet fully adjusted to the reality of the inclusive school paradigm. In this sense, in practical terms, the following are suggested: (1) the need for reinforcement in study plans with specific and long-term curricular units; (2) the introduction of real practice components in context; and (3) supervised pedagogical practice in diverse contexts.

Celestino, Tadeu (ORCID:0000000163087981)↗

Cyclic Background Noise Variations on Infrasound Microbarometers From Micrometeorology and Human Activity

Infrasound microbarometers deployed on the Earth's surface capture pressure fluctuations and acoustic signatures, revealing trends in surface wind speed and cycles in ambient sound. Previous studies investigated wind noise trends at quarter day resolution and urban acoustic background variations on hourly to weekly scales. Cyclic variations at sub-hourly resolution over local distances remain unaddressed. We show that topography-driven micrometeorology impacts diurnal background noise levels below 10 Hz. Anthropogenic noise occurs over daily and weekly cycles, with inputs from traffic, ventilation systems, and power lines. These noise patterns vary at stations spaced less than a kilometer apart. We observe these phenomena by using a circular spectrogram to visualize frequency trends over a periodic temporal scale. This study demonstrates that infrasound microbarometer deployments can highlight localized wind patterns and time scales of human activity. The results suggest that future microbarometer deployments may benefit from site noise surveys before selecting final sensor locations.

Malach, Amrit Kaur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

CORSAIR: A Framework for Human Mobility Prediction through Visit Characterization and Spatial Behavior Modeling

The rapid advancement of location acquisition technologies has led to the daily collection of vast amounts of mobile trajectory data, facilitating in-depth research on human mobility and enabling more accurate mobility prediction models. However, existing methodologies often fall short in capturing the intricate dynamics of human navigation and spatial behavior. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the multifaceted relationships between individuals and their environments, considering the diverse influences of personal preferences and experiences. Some places hold sentimental value and are visited frequently, while others serve as transient points of passage. To model these differences, we introduce CORSAIR, a novel visit characterization framework that leverages visitation patterns and dwell times to delineate an individual’s relationship with specific places. CORSAIR classifies visits into seven distinct types: casual, occasional, routine, special, anchor, important, and resettling. Also, we show that explicitly recognizing these distinct visit types and incorporating nuanced visit intents into mobility prediction models leads to a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy. This distinction allows for more precise modeling of the individual’s transitions, enhancing the personalization and relevance of location-based services. Our findings suggest that a deeper understanding of the complexities of individual-environment interactions is crucial for developing effective predictive tools in mobility research.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Ensuring planetary survival: the centrality of organic carbon in balancing the multifunctional nature of soils

Not only do soils provide 98.7% of the calories consumed by humans, they also provide numerous other functions upon which planetary survivability closely depends. However, our continuously increasing focus on soils for biomass provision (food, fiber, and energy) through intensive agriculture is rapidly degrading soils and diminishing their capacity to deliver other vital functions. These tradeoffs in soil functionality – the increased provision of one function at the expense of other critical planetary functions – are the focus of this review. Here, we examine how land-use change for biomass provision has decreased the ability of soils to regulate the carbon pool and thereby contribute profoundly to climate change, to cycle the nutrients that sustain plant growth and ecosystem health, to protect the soil biodiversity upon which many other functions depend, and to cycle the Earth’s freshwater supplies. We also examine how this decreasing ability of soil to provide these other functions can be halted and reversed. Despite the complexity and the interconnectedness of soil functions, we show that soil organic carbon plays a central role and is a master indicator for soil functioning and that we require a better understanding of the factors controlling the behavior and persistence of C in soils. Given the threats facing humanity and their economies, it is imperative that we recognize that Soil Security is itself an existential challenge and that we need to increase our focus on the multiple functions of soils for long-term human welfare and survivability of the planet.

Carboncarbon sequestration↗

Calista Energy Management Assistance Initiative

The Calista Energy Management Assistance Initiative (CEMAI) provided technical assistance and capacity building for 56 Tribal communities in the Calista Region of Alaska as an effort to reduce costs, improve operational efficiency, enhance human capacity, and job opportunities. CEMAI catalyzed and guided numerous efforts into a consolidated and effective initiative that brought rural energy best practices, economies of scale, operational efficiencies, human capacity, and economic development to the forefront. Calista Corporation (Calista) is one of thirteen Alaska Native Regional Corporations created under the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971 (ANCSA) in the settlement of aboriginal land claims. Calista was incorporated in Alaska on June 12, 1972. The Calista Region covers Alaska’s Bethel and Kusilvak (formerly Wade Hampton) Census areas and includes 56 communities. Calista partnered with Nuvista Light and Electric Cooperative (Nuvista) on the Department of Energy, Office of Indian Energy (DOE-OIE), CEMAI project. Nuvista is a non-profit that seeks to reduce energy costs and provide renewable sources of energy to the people of western Alaska. It is founded and led by a non-profit, Tribe, Native Corporations (including Calista), energy organizations, and Alaska Native stakeholders in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YK-D) Region; covering the same service boundaries and communities served by Calista. This partnership allowed Calista to direct the project work with local energy experts to respond to community needs. In this arrangement, Calista added credibility and regional accountability while Nuvista added energy-specific expertise and skill set in project management. The delivery of the CEMAI Workplan included short-term or on-demand responses to specific technical assistance requests from communities in addition to longer-term strategically directed activities such as workshops, coordinated training, and capacity development efforts across the region. CEMAI’s Workplan aimed to enhance communities’ readiness for establishing renewable energy projects and implementing energy efficiency initiatives. The CEMAI objectives included: (1) Identifying common operational needs and improvement opportunities for entities with an energy interest or responsibility. (2) Providing access to multi-level expertise to address existing challenges. (3) Developing specialized training programs to build local capacity and community readiness. (4) Nurturing the creation of regional support networks. (5) Increasing access to regional, state, and federal energy initiatives, funding, and expertise. (6) Improving technical skills, provide livable wages, and job opportunities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Aeromonas in South Asia: genomic insights into an environmental pathogen and reservoir of antimicrobial resistance

Aeromonads are an ecologically versatile group of bacteria that cause infections in aquatic animals and are recognised as emerging human pathogens. Despite this, our understanding of Aeromonas diversity, especially the relationship between clinical and environmental strains, remains limited. Here, we present a genomic analysis of the Aeromonas genus, comprising 1853 genomes, and a detailed comparison of clinical and environmental strains from South Asia, including 996 newly sequenced genomes from Bangladesh and India. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Aeromonas is a highly diverse genus, with no distinct clade separating clinical and environmental isolates. We identified 28 Aeromonas species and 905 novel sequence types, comprising 72.5% of the genomes. Notably, we show a high incidence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes across all isolates, including against front and last-line antibiotics. Finally, we highlight frequent misidentification of Aeromonas as Vibrio cholerae, which is relevant to cholera-endemic regions where both genera co-exist and are associated with diarrhoeal disease. Our study underscores Aeromonas as an important environmental AMR reservoir and emerging multi-species pathogen capable of spilling over into human populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Critical Literature Review of Quantitative Sustainability Assessment Methods for the Circular Economy

The circular economy (CE) has been proposed to be an operational framework for sustainable development that decouples economic growth from resource consumption. The CE ambition is to maximize the retention of value in products, materials, and resources in the economy over time with the help of CE strategies such as selling a service rather than a product, reusing and repairing products or their components, and recycling. The social, economic, and environmental performances of CE strategies need to be measured against their linear counterparts to avoid strategies that increase circularity but have other unintended externalities. However, there is currently no tool specifically designed to compare circular to linear systems and, thus, various methods from different fields have been applied. This session aims at reviewing, contrasting, and critiquing different methods that have been applied to assess the CE until now, along with an up to date state of the science in this field. Methods from the industrial ecology field have most often been applied to study the CE. However, the transition to CE involves both technological improvements as well as social changes. New business models such as collaborative consumption models (e.g., Uber or Airbnb) are examples of the new patterns of production and consumption of the CE, which may be difficult to analyze from a purely industrial ecology perspective. Methods from complexity science and humanities could therefore complement the industrial ecology perspective to extend the scope of the analysis. Such an approach could also answer a longstanding criticism of the CE which, in contrast with sustainability, solely focuses on the environment and the economy. Moreover, the hybridization of two or more existing methods can yield additional capabilities, which may enable the exploration of additional CE-related research questions. The 90 minutes session will have several presentations and conclude with a moderated, interactive panel discussion on how methods from different fields could be combined to harness their relative strengths.

circular economy↗

Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Optimizing pollinator conservation and crop yield among perennial bioenergy crops

In order to both combat the decline of biodiversity and produce food, fuel, and fiber for a growing human population, current agricultural landscapes must transition into diversified, multifunctional systems. Perennial cellulosic biofuel crops have potential to meet both of these challenges, acting as multifunctional systems that can enhance biodiversity. What is not well understood, and what we test here, are the tradeoffs among different perennial crops in their performance as biofuels and in biodiversity conservation. Working in an established bioenergy experiment with four native, perennial, cellulosic biofuel crop varieties - ranging from monoculture to diverse restoration planting - we tested the effect of biofuel crop management on flower communities, pollinator communities, and crop yield. The greatest abundance and diversity of pollinators and flowers were in treatments that were successional (unmanaged), followed by restored prairie (seeded mix of native grasses and forbs), switchgrass, and a mix of native grasses. However, biofuel crop yield was approximately the inverse, with native grasses having the highest yield, followed by switchgrass and prairie, then successional treatments. Restored prairie was the optimal biofuel crop when both pollinator conservation and crop yield are valued similarly. We add to mounting evidence that policy is needed to create sustainable markets that value the multifunctionality of perennial biofuel systems in order to achieve greater ecosystem services from agricultural landscapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗