Results for “hydrologic response” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2024

Preserving isohydricity: vertical environmental variability explains Amazon forest water-use strategies

Abstract Increases in hydrological extremes, including drought, are expected for Amazon forests. A fundamental challenge for predicting forest responses lies in identifying ecological strategies which underlie such responses. Characterization of species-specific hydraulic strategies for regulating water-use, thought to be arrayed along an ‘isohydric–anisohydric’ spectrum, is a widely used approach. However, recent studies have questioned the usefulness of this classification scheme, because its metrics are strongly influenced by environments, and hence can lead to divergent classifications even within the same species. Here, we propose an alternative approach positing that individual hydraulic regulation strategies emerge from the interaction of environments with traits. Specifically, we hypothesize that the vertical forest profile represents a key gradient in drought-related environments (atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability) that drives divergent tree water-use strategies for coordinated regulation of stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf water potentials (ΨL) with tree rooting depth, a proxy for water availability. Testing this hypothesis in a seasonal eastern Amazon forest in Brazil, we found that hydraulic strategies indeed depend on height-associated environments. Upper canopy trees, experiencing high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but stable soil water access through deep rooting, exhibited isohydric strategies, defined by little seasonal change in the diurnal pattern of gs and steady seasonal minimum ΨL. In contrast, understory trees, exposed to less variable VPD but highly variable soil water availability, exhibited anisohydric strategies, with fluctuations in diurnal gs that increased in the dry season along with increasing variation in ΨL. Our finding that canopy height structures the coordination between drought-related environmental stressors and hydraulic traits provides a basis for preserving the applicability of the isohydric-to-anisohydric spectrum, which we show here may consistently emerge from environmental context. Our work highlights the importance of understanding how environmental heterogeneity structures forest responses to climate change, providing a mechanistic basis for improving models of tropical ecosystems.

Forestry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

Agricultural production and food prices are affected by hydroclimatic extremes. There has been a growing amount of literature measuring the impacts of individual extreme events (heat stress or water stress) on agricultural and human systems. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the significance and the magnitude of the impacts of compound extremes. This study combines a fine-scale weather product with outputs of a hydrological model to construct functional metrics of individual and compound hydroclimatic extremes for agriculture. Then, a yield response function is estimated with individual and compound metrics, focusing on corn in the United States during the 1981–2015 period. Supported by statistical evidence, the findings suggest that metrics of compound hydroclimatic extremes are better predictors of corn yield variations than metrics of individual extremes. The results also confirm that wet heat is more damaging than dry heat for corn. This study shows the average yield damage from heat stress has been up to four times more severe when combined with water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discrete global grid system-based flow routing datasets in the Amazon and Yukon basins

Abstract. Discrete global grid systems (DGGS) are emerging spatial data structures widely used to organize geospatial datasets across scales. While DGGS have found applications in various scientific disciplines, including atmospheric science and ecology, their integration into physically based hydrological models and Earth system models (ESMs) has been hindered by the lack of flow routing datasets based on DGGS. In response to this gap, this study pioneers the development of new flow routing datasets using icosahedral Snyder equal-area (ISEA) DGGS and a novel mesh-independent flow direction model. We present flow routing datasets for two large basins, the tropical Amazon River basin and the Arctic Yukon River basin. These datasets (1) facilitate the adoption of DGGS for hydrological models and (2) provide flow routing inputs for evaluation of DGGS-based flow routing in the Amazon and Yukon river basins. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8377765 (Liao, 2023).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge-informed deep learning for hydrological model calibration: an application to Coal Creek Watershed in Colorado

Abstract. Deep learning (DL)-assisted inverse mapping has shown promise in hydrological model calibration by directly estimating parameters from observations. However, the increasing computational demand for running the state-of-the-art hydrological model limits sufficient ensemble runs for its calibration. In this work, we present a novel knowledge-informed deep learning method that can efficiently conduct the calibration using a few hundred realizations. The method involves two steps. First, we determine decisive model parameters from a complete parameter set based on the mutual information (MI) between model responses and each parameter computed by a limited number of realizations (∼50). Second, we perform more ensemble runs (e.g., several hundred) to generate the training sets for the inverse mapping, which selects informative model responses for estimating each parameter using MI-based parameter sensitivity. We applied this new DL-based method to calibrate a process-based integrated hydrological model, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), at Coal Creek Watershed, CO. The calibration is performed against observed stream discharge (Q) and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) from the water year 2017 to 2019. Preliminary MI analysis on 50 realizations resulted in a down-selection of 7 out of 14 ATS model parameters. Then, we performed a complete MI analysis on 396 realizations and constructed the inverse mapping from informative responses to each of the selected parameters using a deep neural network. Compared with calibration using observations covering all time steps, the new inverse mapping improves parameter estimations, thus enhancing the performance of ATS forward model runs. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of streamflow predictions increases from 0.53 to 0.8 when calibrating against Q alone. Using ET observations, on the other hand, does not show much improvement on the performance of ATS modeling mainly due to both the uncertainty of the remotely sensed product and the insufficient coverage of the model ET ensemble in capturing the observation. By using observed Q only, we further performed a multiyear analysis and show that Q is best simulated (NSE > 0.8) by including in the calibration the dry-year flow dynamics that show more sensitivity to subsurface characteristics than the other wet years. Moreover, when continuing the forward runs till the end of 2021, the calibrated models show similar simulation performances during this evaluation period as the calibration period, demonstrating the ability of the estimated parameters in capturing climate sensitivity. Our success highlights the importance of leveraging data-driven knowledge in DL-assisted hydrological model calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0: a biogeochemical reactive transport model at the watershed scale

Watersheds are the fundamental Earth surface functioning units that connect the land to aquatic systems. Many watershed-scale models represent hydrological processes but not biogeochemical reactive transport processes. This has limited our capability to understand and predict solute export, water chemistry and quality, and Earth system response to changing climate and anthropogenic conditions. Here we present a recently developed BioRT-Flux-PIHM (BioRT hereafter) v1.0, a watershed-scale biogeochemical reactive transport model. The model augments the previously developed RT-Flux-PIHM that integrates land-surface interactions, surface hydrology, and abiotic geochemical reactions. It enables the simulation of (1) shallow and deep-water partitioning to represent surface runoff, shallow soil water, and deeper groundwater and of (2) biotic processes including plant uptake, soil respiration, and nutrient transformation. The reactive transport part of the code has been verified against the widely used reactive transport code CrunchTope. BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0 has recently been applied in multiple watersheds under diverse climate, vegetation, and geological conditions. This paper briefly introduces the governing equations and model structure with a focus on new aspects of the model. It also showcases one hydrology example that simulates shallow and deep-water interactions and two biogeochemical examples relevant to nitrate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). These examples are illustrated in two simulation modes of complexity. One is the spatially lumped mode (i.e., two land cells connected by one river segment) that focuses on processes and average behavior of a watershed. Another is the spatially distributed mode (i.e., hundreds of cells) that includes details of topography, land cover, and soil properties. Whereas the spatially lumped mode represents averaged properties and processes and temporal variations, the spatially distributed mode can be used to understand the impacts of spatial structure and identify hot spots of biogeochemical reactions. The model can be used to mechanistically understand coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes under gradients of climate, vegetation, geology, and land use conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Supporting Information - How Can Crop Production Adapt to growing groundwater restrictions in the West?

Abstract This data plan outlines the structure and content of datasets generated and utilized in the research presented in the manuscript abstract. Groundwater overdraft has led to serious water supply issues in the US West. Most western states manage groundwater use through a permitting system, but California has only recently begun to restrict groundwater use statewide with the 2014 passage of groundwater restrictions which target the elimination of groundwater overdraft practices by 2042. With groundwater extraction curtailed, crop production in the US West (a $95 billion industry annually) will be affected, and appropriate response strategies will be needed to ensure minimal disruption to food production and the regional economy. In this paper, we explore the adoption of alternative adaptive responses: (a) deficit irrigation; (b) switching to less water-intensive crops; (c) changing the extent of irrigated land (including fallowing); and (d) geographically shifting crop production. Employing an integrated modeling approach, we explicitly capture the interactions and feedbacks between local hydrology, changes in crop yields, crop and land use decision-making, changes in crop prices, and regional shifts in crop production. We find that the optimal adaptive response is spatially heterogeneous and comprises a portfolio of strategies. Southwestern states and California will be the most impacted by groundwater restrictions. The optimal responses in these states are to both adopt deficit irrigation strategies and reduce a portion of their irrigated croplands, resulting in a shift in crop production to northwestern states with a larger supply of water. The datasets detailed in this repository represent the output from these integrated models, specifically designed to support the analysis and visualization presented in the manuscript and supplemental information. These datasets, used in conjunction with the scripts available at our associated GitHub repository (https://github.com/pches/Femeena_etal_How_can_crop_production_adapt), enable the reproduction of figures and facilitate a comprehensive understanding of the optimal adaptive strategies in agriculture for mitigating water stress under varying groundwater extraction scenarios, as outlined in the abstract.

DNDCe↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Fragility of Bedform‐Induced Hyporheic Zones: Exploring Impacts of Dynamic Groundwater Table Fluctuations

Abstract Hyporheic zones are commonly regarded as resilient and enduring interfaces between groundwater and surface water in river corridors. In particular, bedform‐induced advective pumping hyporheic exchange (bedform‐induced exchange) is often perceived as a relatively persistent mechanism in natural river systems driving water, solutes, and energy exchanges between the channel and its surrounding streambed sediments. Numerous studies have been based on this presumption. To evaluate the persistence of hyporheic zones under varying hydrologic conditions, we use a multi‐physics framework to model advective pumping bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange in response to a series of seasonal‐ and event‐scale groundwater table fluctuation scenarios, which lead to episodic river‐aquifer disconnections and reconnections. Our results suggest that hyporheic exchange is not as ubiquitous as generally assumed. Instead, the bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange is restricted to a narrow range of conditions characterized by minor river‐groundwater head differences, is intermittent, and can be easily obliterated by minor losing groundwater conditions. These findings shed light on the fragility of bedform‐induced hyporheic exchange and have important implications for biogeochemical transformations along river corridors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019

Fundamental to Earth’s climate, tropical rainfall marks a dominant annual cycle characterized by its amplitude and phase, representing the range between wet and dry seasons and their onset timing, respectively. Under global warming, previous studies revealed enhanced amplitude of rainfall annual cycle over ocean and delayed phase over land in the tropics, underpinned by solid theories. It is unclear however whether these changes have already emerged in the observational records. Here, we report a robust delay of 3.02 and 3.43 days over the northern tropical land and Sahel respectively during 1979-2018 based on five observation datasets. Furthermore, most of the delay is captured by multiple ensemble simulations driven by external forcings, with greenhouse gases (GHG) more important over the northern tropical land and anthropogenic aerosols (AER) more important over the Sahel. Both GHG and AER delay the annual cycle of regional precipitation similarly by producing a moister and more ocean-like atmosphere, thus increasing its lag in response to seasonal solar forcing. Our findings provide new evidence of the human footprints on Earth’s hydrological cycle at continental and regional scales. As GHG and AER continue to increase and decrease respectively, these seasonal delays will be further amplified in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Ensemble Predictions of South Asian Monsoon Low Pressure System Genesis

Abstract Synoptic-scale vortices known as monsoon low pressure systems (LPSs) frequently produce intense precipitation and hydrological disasters in South Asia, so accurately forecasting LPS genesis is crucial for improving disaster preparedness and response. However, the accuracy of LPS genesis forecasts by numerical weather prediction models has remained unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of two global ensemble models—the U.S. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—in predicting LPS genesis during the years 2021–22. The GEFS successfully predicted about half the observed LPS genesis events 1–2 days in advance; the ECMWF model captured an additional 10% of observed genesis events. Both models had a false alarm ratio (FAR) of around 50% for 1–2-day lead times. In both ensembles, the control run typically exhibited a higher probability of detection (POD) of observed events and a lower FAR compared to the perturbed ensemble members. However, a consensus forecast, in which genesis is predicted when at least 20% of ensemble members forecast LPS formation, had POD values surpassing those of the control run for all lead times. Moreover, probabilistic predictions of genesis over the Bay of Bengal, where most LPSs form, were skillful, with the fraction of ensemble members predicting LPS formation over a 5-day lead time approximating the observed frequency of genesis, without any adjustment or bias correction.

Suhas, D. L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of GOTHIC to Groundwater Transport Analysis - 20152

Migration of pollutants and hazardous wastes, potentially containing radioactive isotopes, via groundwater transport is a concern at most waste cleanup sites. Predictive analysis can be used to evaluate mitigating actions intended to minimize impact on the environment and public exposure. GOTHIC is a multipurpose thermal hydraulics code that is used extensively in the nuclear industry for design, licensing and operation evaluations. It combines the capabilities of typical one-dimensional system codes and the essential features of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for three-dimensional analysis. There are other codes that are specifically developed for groundwater transport analysis and the results presented here are consistent with prior analyses. However, GOTHIC has some unique features that offer advantages for applications related to nuclear waste. Most importantly, it has been developed and maintained under a Quality Assurance program in compliance with the requirements of 10CFR50 Appendix B [2] and applicable portions of ASME NQA-1 [3] since 1995. Available GOTHIC capabilities that make the code especially useful for groundwater transport of nuclear materials include: - Tracking of any number of tracer elements for contaminants and other species of interest; - Radioactive decay and progeny of tracer elements; - Adsorption/desorption of tracer elements; - Tracking of any number of dissolved gases; - Release and absorption for dissolved gases; - Vapor phase tracking; - Non-Newtonian fluid modeling. The general porous body modeling approach makes GOTHIC well suited to groundwater transport analysis. The multi-region modeling approach used by GOTHIC simplifies model construction for regions of varying hydrologic characteristics and focuses the computational effort on regions of particular interest while simultaneously capturing the macroscopic response and any feedback effects across the larger domain. The applicability of GOTHIC to groundwater transport applications is demonstrated by comparing code results with available analytic or semi-analytic solutions for groundwater behavior. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biogeochemical Changes in Estuaries

The biogeochemical composition of materials suspended and dissolved in estuarine waters is substantially transformed by biological and abiotic processes as water from rivers and subterranean aquifers travels through estuaries to the coastal ocean, influencing the rate of storage and/or exchange of carbon with the atmosphere. Biogeochemical signatures in the upper reaches of estuaries (e.g., low salinity) generally reflect characteristics of the rivers and groundwater draining into the estuary. The composition of organic matter (OM) where rivers meet estuaries is a mixture of terrigenous signatures dependent on watershed landscape features, aquatic signatures dependent on the prominence of freshwater primary productivity, and intermediate metabolites (i.e., byproducts of in situ transformation) of these terrigenous and aquatic OM sources. The prominence of aquatic primary production-derived OM and products of microbial decomposition generally increases towards the lower reaches of estuaries where they meet the coastal ocean (i.e.., continental shelf). The nature of biogeochemical transformations occurring along estuarine gradients is closely coupled with factors that are poised to change under multiple compounding disturbances and stress factors related to both climate change and other anthropogenic global changes. This chapter describes the fundamental mechanisms that drive the transport, transformation, and storage of OM in estuaries and how these dynamics have and may continue to change in response to key disturbances and stressors related to climate change and other anthropogenic global changes including warming, intensifying hydrological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods), sea level rise, and acidification.

Ward, Nicholas D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI Scaling Laws for Extremes (AISLE)

Focal Area(s) Using artificial intelligence to understand the physics of hydrologic events across temporal and spatial scales, to assess their representation in climate models, and to predict their response to climate warming. This covers both the prescribed foci of (2) predictive modeling using a hierarchy of models and (3) insight gleaned from complex data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Analysis of Coupled Geoscience Processes in Fractured and Deformable Media

Prediction of flow, transport, and deformation in fractured and porous media is critical to improving our scientific understanding of coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical processes related to subsurface energy storage and recovery, nonproliferation, and nuclear waste storage. Especially, earth rock response to changes in pressure and stress has remained a critically challenging task. In this work, we advance computational capabilities for coupled processes in fractured and porous media using Sandia Sierra Multiphysics software through verification and validation problems such as poro-elasticity, elasto-plasticity and thermo-poroelasticity. We apply Sierra software for geologic carbon storage, fluid injection/extraction, and enhanced geothermal systems. We also significantly improve machine learning approaches through latent space and self-supervised learning. Additionally, we develop new experimental technique for evaluating dynamics of compacted soils at an intermediate scale. Overall, this project will enable us to systematically measure and control the earth system response to changes in stress and pressure due to subsurface energy activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Elastic deformation as a tool to investigate watershed storage connectivity

Storage-discharge relationships and dynamic changes in storage connectivity remain key unknowns in understanding and predicting watershed behavior. In this study, we use Global Positioning System measurements of load-induced Earth surface displacement as a proxy for total water storage change in four climatologically diverse mountain watersheds in the western United States. Comparing total water storage estimates with stream-connected storage derived from hydrograph analysis, we find that each of the investigated watersheds exhibits a characteristic seasonal pattern of connection and disconnection between total and stream-connected storage. We investigate how the degree and timing of watershed-scale connectivity is related to the timing of precipitation and seasonal changes in dominant hydrologic processes. Our results show that elastic deformation of the Earth due to water loading is a powerful new tool for elucidating dynamic storage connectivity and watershed discharge response across scales in space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗