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DOE OSTI2024

Hardware In the Loop for Demand Flexibility (HIL4DF) v1.0

The software package in question is a collection of simulation models in the Modelica language, representing a variety of mechanical system designs and envelope conditions related to LBL's FLEXLAB facility. The collection of models also features multiple controls sequences that can be simulated with the FLEXLAB model to simulate different demand flexibility scenarios. Additionally, this package will feature datasets from 3 experimental tests, used for calibration, validation and comparison against the Modelica models, this includes weather data that can be used to replicate different scenarios in simulation across the same weather conditions experienced in real experiments. Given FLEXLAB high level of instrumentation and available data, the models are calibrated across multiple measurement points, and thus results from the extension of this model to other climate zones or control sequences, would provide high level of confidence.

Huang, Weiping↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Fission-like Neutron Spectrum Shaping Assembly based on D-T Generator

For nearly five decades, 252 Cf sources have been used for testing and calibration over a wide range of neutron detection devices used for nuclear safety and radiation protection. However, the vastly increased cost of 252 Cf sources, its short half-life, and concerns about future shortage have prompted nuclear facilities and radiological calibration laboratories that rely on high-intensity neutron sources to seek alternatives. While there appear to be no other radionuclide neutron sources that would match the 252 Cf performance characteristics, all of them, including 252 Cf, present similar concerns in terms of hazards, safety, and security. As a possible solution to this issue, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a low-risk, cost-efficient alternative to produce fission-like spectra based on commercially available deuterium-tritium (D-T) neutron generators. The alternative of producing a fission-like neutron spectrum without any fissionable materials or beryllium would enable the nuclear facilities across the entire complex to eliminate their reliance on high intensity 252 Cf sources for nuclear safety and radiation protection applications, substantially reducing risks and associated costs. This report describes efforts of designing the spectrum shaping assembly, its construction and characterization of the neutron field produced. Performance of this newly developed D-T generator based neutron field is demonstrated via calibration of a criticality detector, neutron survey instruments, and personal dosimeters verified against current standardized fields produced by 252 Cf spontaneous fission sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Calibration for Rapid Optical Spectroscopy Sensor Development for Online Monitoring

An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced detection limits for radiokrypton analysis

In this paper, we present a method for improving detection limits of Atom Trap Trace Analysis for the krypton radioisotopes 85 Kr and 81 Kr. For the case of 85 Kr this work demonstrates that systematic use of isotopically depleted gas for calibration and extended conditioning of the instrument results in a detection limit of 900 85 Kr atoms per 11 μl of Kr gas, equivalent to a 85 Kr/Kr isotopic abundance of 3 x 10 -15 . This improvement of roughly two orders of magnitude over previously reported limits will help to expand the reach of radiokrypton dating towards longer age ranges where most of the radioisotopes have decayed. Additionally, the method offers an opportunity to investigate radiokrypton production via spontaneous fission within naturally occurring minerals to understand potential underground production of these isotopes.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2021

Going Forward with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Transient Survey: Validation of Precision Forward-modeling Photometry for Undersampled Imaging

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) is an observatory for both wide-field observations and coronagraphy that is scheduled for launch in the mid-2020s. Part of the planned survey is a deep, cadenced field or fields that enable cosmological measurements with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). With a pixel scale of 0$_.^"$11, the Wide Field Instrument will be undersampled, presenting a difficulty for precisely subtracting the galaxy light underneath the SNe. We use simulated data to validate the ability of a forward-model code (such codes are frequently also called “scene-modeling” codes) to perform precision supernova photometry for the Roman SN survey. Our simulation includes over 760,000 image cutouts around SNe Ia or host galaxies (~10% of a full-scale survey). To have a realistic 2D distribution of underlying galaxy light, we use the VELA simulated high-resolution images of galaxies. We run each set of cutouts through our forward-modeling code which automatically measures time-dependent SN fluxes. Given our assumed inputs of a perfect model of the instrument point-spread functions and calibration, we find biases at the millimagnitude level from this method in four red filters (Y106, J129, H158, and F184), easily meeting the 0.5% Roman inter-filter calibration requirement for a cutting-edge measurement of cosmological parameters using SNe Ia. Simulated data in the bluer Z087 filter shows larger ~ 2–3 mmg biases, also meeting this requirement, but with more room for improvement. Our forward-model code has been released on Zenodo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation results for a low energy nuclear recoil yields measurement in liquid xenon using the MiX detector

Measuring the scintillation and ionization yields of liquid xenon in response to ultra-low energy nuclear recoil events is necessary to increase the sensitivity of liquid xenon experiments to light dark matter. Neutron capture on xenon can be used to produce nuclear recoil events with energies below 0.3 keV NR via the asymmetric emission of γ rays during nuclear de-excitation. The feasibility of an ultra-low energy nuclear recoil measurement using neutron capture was investigated for the Michigan Xenon (MiX) detector, a small dual-phase xenon time projection chamber that is optimized for a high scintillation gain. Simulations of the MiX detector, a partial neutron moderator, and a pulsed neutron generator indicate that a population of neutron capture events can be isolated from neutron scattering events. Additionally, the rate of neutron captures in the MiX detector was optimized by varying the thickness of the partial neutron moderator, neutron pulse width, and neutron pulse frequency.

detector calibration↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phase Doppler Interferometry for Efficient Cloud Drop Size Distribution, Number Density, and LWC Measurements

Threats to aviation safety as a result of super-cooled large drops (SLD) has been addressed by the FAA rules change (14 CFR Part 25) with the additional icing certification requirement. SLD clouds often consist of bi-modal drop size spectra leading to significant problems in simulating and characterizing these conditions in situ and in icing wind tunnels. Legacy instrumentation for measuring drop size distributions and liquid water content are challenged under these conditions. The large size range measurement problem is addressed with the development of the Phase Doppler Interferometer, Flight Probe Dual-Range (PDI FPDR). The method is described in this report along with the measurement capabilities including the dynamic measurement range and overall working size range. The PDI instrument bases drop size measurements on the light wavelength as the measurement length scale. The light wavelength is a much more robust scale, especially as compared to the light scattering intensity. Additionally, methods for accurately characterizing the sample volume in situ based on measured drop velocity and transit time are reviewed, given the importance of this parameter for merging results and measuring LWC. Droplet coincidence in the sample volume can be problematic so this condition is treated with an innovative signal parsing approach. Measurement examples acquired in the NASA IRT are provided. Measurements of LWC showed good agreement with the Artium Particle Imaging (PI) instrument but diverged from the tunnel calibration results for larger MVD values.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

EPCAPE-PT-LANL Measurements: Condensation Particle Counter

Coastal cities offer a unique environment for studying aerosol-cloud interactions and the effects of urban emissions on cloud properties. As part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), the Partitioning Thrust by Los Alamos National Laboratory (EPCAPE-PT-LANL) was conducted. Our campaign focused on measuring the optical and chemical properties of aerosols and their interactions within marine stratocumulus clouds in La Jolla, California. EPCAPE-PT-LANL enhances the primary goals of EPCAPE through innovative observations of vapor-phase transitions between aerosols and cloud droplets, the impact of black carbon on aerosol-cloud dynamics, and the effects of cloud processing on aerosol optical properties. Instrument: Condensational particle counter 3070 (TSI) Calibration: No calibration during the campaign. Files: data_10sec_CPC.csv, data_10min_CPC.csv Header: - NumberConcentration[/cm3]: Number concentration of aerosol particles measured by the CPC, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - NumberConcentration[/cm3]_QC: Number concentration of aerosol particles after quality control adjustments or filtering, expressed in particles per cubic centimeter. - QualityControl_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the measurement is flagged for quality control checks, (0=pass) - CVI_Flag[bool]: A boolean flag indicating whether the Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) was active (true) or inactive (false) during the measurement

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Calibration Transfer Techniques for Remote Monitoring of Samarium and Europium in LiCl Using Laser-Induced Florescence Spectroscopy for Radioisotope Production Applications

Radioisotope production relies on complex chemical processes that must be performed in radiological hot cells or glove boxes because of the radioactive and otherwise hazardous materials being used. In these situations, optical sensors can provide real-time monitoring to users, which is unobtainable by more traditional methods. This study explores the use of calibration transfer methods to train a model on one instrument and date and then transfer it to another instrument of the same or different configuration on a different date. By performing laser-induced fluorescence measurements of Eu(III) and Sm(III) in 10 M LiCl over the course of 6 months using two disparate spectrometers and two different training sets, a strategy for calibrating and deploying models for online monitoring was established. Three transfer techniques were compared: direct standardization (DS), piecewise direct standardization (PDS), and external parameter orthogonalization (EPO). DS and PDS outperformed EPO for day-to-day transfers, and EPO was not effective for instrument-to-instrument transfers. Transferring the initial date’s full factorial model provided better prediction performance compared with retraining models the day of measurements using a D-optimal designed calibration set. For both day-to-day and instrument-to-instrument transfers, five Kennard–Stone selected samples were sufficient. Based on this choice, the initial-date, high-resolution spectrometer model was transferred to a lower-resolution, compact spectrometer 6 months later to monitor a simulated, real-time demonstration. Here, the combined predictions of the DS and PDS transferred models were able to accurately track the anticipated concentration profiles, maintaining root-mean-square error of prediction values below 10 ppm.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Simons Observatory: A fully remote controlled calibration system with a sparse wire grid for cosmic microwave background telescopes

For cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization observations, calibration of detector polarization angles is essential. We have developed a fully remote controlled calibration system with a sparse wire grid that reflects linearly polarized light along the wire direction. The new feature is a remote-controlled system for regular calibration, which has not been possible in sparse wire grid calibrators in past experiments. The remote control can be achieved by two electric linear actuators that load or unload the sparse wire grid into a position centered on the optical axis of a telescope between the calibration time and CMB observation. Furthermore, the sparse wire grid can be rotated by using a motor. A rotary encoder and a gravity sensor are installed on the sparse wire grid to monitor the wire direction. They allow us to achieve detector polarization angle calibration with an expected systematic error of 0.08°. The calibration system will be installed in small-aperture telescopes at Simons Observatory.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the ESPRESSO wavelength calibration using iodine absorption cell spectra

ABSTRACT High-quality wavelength calibration is crucial for science cases like radial-velocity studies of exoplanets, the search for a possible variation of fundamental constants, and the redshift drift experiment. However, for state-of-the-art spectrographs, it has become difficult to verify the wavelength calibration on sky because no astrophysical source provides spectra with sufficiently stable or accurate wavelength information. We therefore propose to use iodine absorption cells to validate the wavelength calibration. Observing a bright and featureless star through the iodine cell emulates an astrophysical target with exactly known spectral features that can be analysed like any other science target, allowing to verify the wavelength calibration derived from the internal calibration sources and to identify systematics in the data processing. As demonstration, we temporarily installed an $\mathrm{I_2}$ absorption cell at ESPRESSO. Employing a full forward modelling approach of the $\mathrm{I_2}$ spectrum, including the instrumental line-spread function, we demonstrate wavelength calibration accuracy at the level of a few $\mathrm{m\,s^{-1}}$. We also show that wavelength measurements do depend on the geometry of the light-injection into the spectrograph fibers. This highlights the importance of probing exactly the same light path as science targets, something not possible with internal calibration sources alone. We also demonstrate excellent radial-velocity stability at the ${{< 20\, \mathrm{cm\,s^{-1}}}}$ level in a full end-to-end fashion, from sky to data product. Our study therefore showcases the great potential of absorption cells for the verification and long-term monitoring of the wavelength calibration as well as the unique insights they can provide.

Schmidt, Tobias M. (ORCID:0000000248337273)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Energy Reconstruction and Calibration of the MicroBooNE LArTPC

MicroBooNE uses a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) for simultaneous tracking and calorimetry. Neutrino oscillation experiments plan to use LArTPCs over the next several decades. A challenge for these current and future experiments lies in characterizing detector performance and reconstruction capabilities with thorough associated systematic uncertainties. This work includes updates related to LArTPC detector physics challenges by reviewing MicroBooNE’s recent publications on calorimetry and its applications. Highlights include discussions on signal processing, calorimetric calibration, and particle identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI1994

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Absolute Color Calibration of the Dark Energy Survey: A Spectrophotometric Sample of DA White Dwarfs in the Southern Sky

The Dark Energy Survey (DES), which is nearing the completion of the analysis of its full data set, is an imaging survey of one-quarter of the Southern sky down to an apparent magnitude of $i\sim24.5$. The survey observations were conducted between 2013 and 2019 with a 3-square-degree wide-field CCD mosaic camera (the Dark Energy Camera, or DECam) on the Blanco 4-meter telescope at the Cerro Tololo Interamerican Observatory in the Chilean Andes. The primary scientific goal of the DES was to measure properties of Dark Energy. In order to achieve its science goals, the DES had tight requirements on both its relative and absolute photometric calibrations. In this poster, we describe the sample of pure-hydrogen-atmosphere (“DA”) white dwarfs which were instrumental in working to establish the requirement on the absolute color calibration -- i.e., the calibration across the filter bands -- of the DES.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building Model Calibration: Validation of GridLAB-D Thermal Dynamics Modeling

This report investigates how well GridLAB-D’s house model characterizes the thermal dynamics of buildings given the overpredicted diurnal electric load swing observed in the Distribution System Operation with Transactive (DSO+T) study. This study seeks to validate GridLAB-D’s house model by calibrating it to data from the well-instrumented Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lab Homes in Richland, WA. The datasets chosen included multiple pre-cooling and pre-heating testing periods where the indoor air temperature was allowed to float over a multi-hour length of time to mimic diurnal behavior. The multi-season calibrations were evaluated by comparing the heating/cooling electric power, indoor air temperature, and the rise/decay time during temperature float periods with Lab Homes data. The default GridLAB-D assumptions for latent load fraction, air heat capacity, mass heat capacity, window-to-wall-ratio, overall envelope conductance (assumed as NORMAL thermal integrity level), and solar heat gain coefficient were compared with the calibrated model to confirm when the default assumptions were adequate and the impact of calibration on the accuracy of modeling the thermal dynamics of homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

StarDICE III: characterization of the photometric instrument with a collimated beam projector

The measurement of Type Ia supernovae magnitudes provides cosmological distances, which constrain dark energy parameters. Current and upcoming large photometric surveys require improved photometric calibration precision to reduce systematic uncertainties in cosmological constraints. The StarDICE experiment aims to establish accurate broad-band flux references for these surveys, targeting sub-percent precision in magnitude measurements. Achieving this requires precise filter bandpass measurements for both StarDICE and survey instruments with sub-nanometre accuracy. To this end, we developed the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), an optical device for calibrating the throughput of astronomical telescopes and their filters. The CBP uses a tunable laser source and a reversed telescope to emit a parallel monochromatic light beam, continuously monitored in flux and wavelength. The CBP output flux is measured with a large-area photodiode calibrated relative to a NIST photodiode. Using CBP measurements, we derive the StarDICE telescope throughput and filter transmissions, anchoring them to NIST’s absolute calibration. After analysing systematic uncertainties, we achieved sub-nanometre accuracy for filter central wavelengths, measured filter transmission with ~0.5 per cent precision per 1 nm bin, and detected out-of-band leakages at a relative level of 10 –4 ⁠. Furthermore, we synthesized equivalent transmission for full pupil illumination from four sampled positions in the StarDICE telescope mirror, with ~0.2 nm accuracy for central wavelengths and 7 mmag for broad-band fluxes. This demonstrates our ability to characterize telescope throughput down to the millimagnitude, paving the way for future developments, such as the Rubin-CBP for measuring the LSST at Vera Rubin Observatory, and a portable CBP version for in-situ transmission monitoring.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗