Results for “integrated scenarios” — Page 9

NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Factor Impact Analysis of Agricultural Production in Bangladesh with Climate Change

Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040-2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins' hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario.

Ruane, Alex C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Survey of Use Cases and Scenarios on the Open Energy Data Initiative Solar Systems Integration (OEDI SI) Platform

The Open Energy Data Initiative Solar Systems Integration (OEDI SI) Data and Modeling Platform offers a comprehensive set of use cases tailored for power systems analysis. Each use case is centered around a specific power system analysis problem, supported by composite input data and reference algorithms. These composite input datasets are meticulously assembled using OEDI SI's data preprocessing tools, which integrate raw data from various sources. The primary objectives of the OEDI SI Platform include facilitating access to composite input data through widely accepted input/output formats and verified results. This accessibility enables power system network researchers and developers to validate their algorithms and showcase their applications' capabilities to the broader community. Moreover, the platform strives to promote reproducible, robust, replicable, and generalizable solar systems integration research.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Status of the Combined Cycle Engine Rig

Status for the past year is provided of the turbine-based Combined-Cycle Engine (CCE) Rig for the hypersonic project. As part of the first stage propulsion of a two-stage-to-orbit vehicle concept, this engine rig is designed with a common inlet that supplies flow to a turbine engine and a dual-mode ramjet / scramjet engine in an over/under configuration. At Mach 4 the inlet has variable geometry to switch the airflow from the turbine to the ramjet / scramjet engine. This process is known as inlet mode-transition. In addition to investigating inlet aspects of mode transition, the rig will allow testing of turbine and scramjet systems later in the test series. Fully closing the splitter cowl "cocoons" the turbine engine and increases airflow to the scramjet duct. The CCE Rig will be a testbed to investigate integrated propulsion system and controls technology objectives. Four phases of testing are planned to 1) characterize the dual inlet database, 2) collect inlet dynamics using system identification techniques, 3) implement an inlet control to demonstrate mode-transition scenarios and 4) demonstrate integrated inlet/turbine engine operation through mode-transition. Status of the test planning and preparation activities is summarized with background on the inlet design and small-scale testing, analytical CFD predictions and some details of the large-scale hardware. The final stages of fabrication are underway.

Saunders, Dave↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗

DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

xEMU Suit Integrated Audio Communications System: Ambient and EVA Pressure Testing System Performance

Testing across several airlock and EVA thermal and pressure scenarios has demonstrated that the Integrated Audio System of NASA’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuits transmits and receives intelligible audio communications without the use of a commcap or similar worn device. The xEMU audio system consists of internal loudspeakers and digital microphones (Integrated Communications System –ICS) combined with an adaptive Acoustic Echo Canceller (AEC), outbound voice operated transmission (VOX), and automatic gain control (AGC). Transducers are mounted in an “exploded commcap” configuration with helmet-attached speakers near the ears and three microphones positioned at the collar. The AGC removes inbound audio signals (e.g.,suit, Mission Control, Lander, C&W tones) from the outbound comms stream, reducing echo and feedback (squeal) in low-noise suit environments. The reduction of worn communication equipment increases crewmember comfort, range of movement, and situational awareness. However, test results also highlight the need for proper fan, duct, pump, and gas flow integration with suit acoustics and audio. Ductwork may serve as waveguides for various component and structure-borne noise. Sharply angled ducts can generate turbulent-flow noise. Gas flow from inlets above the crewmember’s head can generate noise when cascading over the faceplate and collar (or commcap) microphones. Sufficient acoustic noise levels (1) require increased gain to boost inbound audio, and (2) may distort signals resulting in AEC disruption or artifacts. Suit-noise levels decline with reduced pressure (density), but then elevated speech and audio effort/power become necessary. Whether the Integrated Audio System, commcap, or other device is used, suit acoustic noise can mask speech in outbound comms. This reduces intelligibility and requires other AECs/devices to suppress comms noise. Yet, adjusting a few components may yield significant improvement. We discuss xEMU audio functionality, demonstrate how acoustical treatment combined with inbound signal conditioning improved clarity during tests, and discuss future modifications.

xEMU↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

xEMU Suit Integrated Audio Communications System: Ambient and EVA Pressure Testing System Performance

Testing across several airlock and EVA thermal and pressure scenarios has demonstrated that the Integrated Audio System of NASA’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuits transmits and receives intelligible audio communications without the use of a commcap or similar worn device. The xEMU audio system consists of internal loudspeakers and digital microphones (Integrated Communications System –ICS) combined with an adaptive Acoustic Echo Canceller (AEC), outbound voice operated transmission (VOX), and automatic gain control (AGC). Transducers are mounted in an “exploded commcap” configuration with helmet-attached speakers near the ears and three microphones positioned at the collar. The AGC removes inbound audio signals (e.g.,suit, Mission Control, Lander, C&W tones) from the outbound comms stream, reducing echo and feedback (squeal) in low-noise suit environments. The reduction of worn communication equipment increases crewmember comfort, range of movement, and situational awareness. However, test results also highlight the need for proper fan, duct, pump, and gas flow integration with suit acoustics and audio. Ductwork may serve as waveguides for various component and structure-borne noise. Sharply angled ducts can generate turbulent-flow noise. Gas flow from inlets above the crewmember’s head can generate noise when cascading over the faceplate and collar (or commcap) microphones. Sufficient acoustic noise levels (1) require increased gain to boost inbound audio, and (2) may distort signals resulting in AEC disruption or artifacts. Suit-noise levels decline with reduced pressure (density), but then elevated speech and audio effort/power become necessary. Whether the Integrated Audio System, commcap, or other device is used, suit acoustic noise can mask speech in outbound comms. This reduces intelligibility and requires other AECs/devices to suppress comms noise. Yet, adjusting a few components may yield significant improvement. We discuss xEMU audio functionality, demonstrate how acoustical treatment combined with inbound signal conditioning improved clarity during tests, and discuss future modifications.

xEMU↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Artemis Surface Navigation: Challenges, Approaches, and Opportunities

The early Artemis missions represent the return of humanity to the surface of the Moon and provide opportunities for meeting early science and exploration goals. Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capabilities are a fundamental element and inform operational design, flight rules, and the ability to meet these. This paper provides an overview of the needs, potential implementations, challenges, and concepts of operations in the initial human surface missions, Artemis III and IV. These early excursions are a crucial learning opportunity to gain more experience in the actual operational environment for Artemis V and beyond where exploration objectives and complexity increases. As part of the study, the team defined a threshold performance navigation requirement (including position and orientation) to meet crew safe return and assessed a breadth of navigation approaches that could be deployed to augment the crew’s baseline navigation capability. Data was collected in terms of size, mass, power, operational constraints, environment constraints, interface, and performance to define the technical metrics. Given these, the trade team conducted polling among the various Artemis Campaign elements to capture preference, integration challenges, and operational impacts. These were used to develop weightings and inform a ranked order of solutions across each of the early missions. The results of the study recommended augmenting the initial orientation capability with additional navigation sensors to provide coarse position and heading information to the crew to enable a safe contingency walk-back when out of video range. The team identified opportunities for embedding this hardware in future scenarios to provide an integrated solution. With the deployment of the LunaNet’s Lunar Augmented Navigation System, the crew will be able to maintain accurate real-time navigation knowledge with minimal physical impacts. Discussion of future testing and continued analysis is included in this paper. These forward plans and long-term architecture systems will enable a powerful navigation approach for orbiting and surface users, enabling a high level of scientific return and crew safety.

Evan Anzalone↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early Artemis Surface Navigation: Challenges, Approaches, and Opportunities

The early Artemis missions represent the return of humanity to the surface of the Moon and provide opportunities for meeting early science and exploration goals. Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capabilities are a fundamental element and inform operational design, flight rules, and the ability to meet these. This paper provides an overview of the needs, potential implementations, challenges, and concepts of operations in the initial human surface missions, Artemis III and IV. These early excursions are a crucial learning opportunity to gain more experience in the actual operational environment for Artemis V and beyond where exploration objectives and complexity increases. As part of the study, the team defined a threshold performance navigation requirement (including position and orientation) to meet crew safe return and assessed a breadth of navigation approaches that could be deployed to augment the crew’s baseline navigation capability. Data was collected in terms of size, mass, power, operational constraints, environment constraints, interface, and performance to define the technical metrics. Given these, the trade team conducted polling among the various Artemis Campaign elements to capture preference, integration challenges, and operational impacts. These were used to develop weightings and inform a ranked order of solutions across each of the early missions. The results of the study recommended augmenting the initial orientation capability with additional navigation sensors to provide coarse position and heading information to the crew to enable a safe contingency walk-back when out of video range. The team identified opportunities for embedding this hardware in future scenarios to provide an integrated solution. With the deployment of the LunaNet’s Lunar Augmented Navigation System, the crew will be able to maintain accurate real-time navigation knowledge with minimal physical impacts. Discussion of future testing and continued analysis is included in this paper. These forward plans and long-term architecture systems will enable a powerful navigation approach for orbiting and surface users, enabling a high level of scientific return and crew safety.

Evan Anzalone↗

DOE OSTI2026

Simultaneous ELM suppression and divertor detachment via synergistic boron powder and neon injection in EAST

A novel approach for simultaneous power exhaust and edge-localized mode (ELM) control is presented in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak discharges, which utilize an ITER-like tungsten divertor. Real-time injection of boron (B) powder and neon (Ne) gas overcomes their limitations encountered when used separately. Pure Ne seeding leads to a narrow operational window constrained by core impurity accumulation and H-mode to L-mode back transitions, while pure solid B injection (SBI) is insufficient for effective divertor cooling. In comparison, their combined use achieves a stable, stationary, ELM-suppressed H-mode with adequate power exhaust. This synergistic scenario features partial energy detachment at the outer divertor while maintaining good plasma confinement (H 98 ∼ 1) with minimal degradation. Two key features of this scenario are: (1) the SBI triggers a persistent Edge Harmonic Mode (EHM), which provides a crucial continuous particle transport channel, preventing Ne and tungsten/molybdenum accumulation without flushing out by ELM, and (2) the B + Ne mixture allows for active optimization of the radiated power profile. Core radiation can be reduced by substituting a portion of the Ne with B, leveraging their complementary non-coronal equilibrium radiation efficiencies. This combined B + Ne injection scheme presents a promising pathway toward integrated core-edge scenarios, offering the potential to minimize total impurity throughput while leveraging an actuator (powder injection) already being considered for ITER.

Boron↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Assessment of Integrated Hydroelectric Power and Hydrogen Energy Storage

Environmental and regulatory constraints are increasingly posing challenges to the optimal operation of hydroelectric facilities. Hydrogen energy storage (HES) is well-suited to address these challenges.Using excess or low-cost hydroelectric power during off-peak hours to produce hydrogen can help reduce water spills and unlock opportunities for energy arbitrage. Moreover, the oxygen byproduct of electrolysis can be used to improve the dissolved oxygen (DO) levels in tailrace water. %, a key water quality metric for hydroelectric facilities.This paper presents an innovative framework for modeling and assessing the integrated hydroelectric-hydrogen system, considering subsystem constraints and coupling, benefits in spill water reduction and DO mitigation, as well as diverse hydrogen utilization, including re-electrification, blending with natural gas, and direct sales. Comprehensive case studies were conducted to assess the techno-economic performance of the integrated system in different deployment scenarios.

Energy storage, Hydrogen, Hydropower, Optimization↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alfvén eigenmode stability in a JET afterglow deuterium plasma and projections to deuterium–tritium plasmas

Abstract The performance of fusion devices relies strongly on the good confinement of energetic particles (EPs). Therefore, the investigation of EP transport by magnetohydrodynamic instabilities is one of the key aspects in the development of plasma scenarios. Alfvénic instabilities in particular can lead to significant losses of alpha particles that are essential for plasma self-heating. A so-called afterglow scheme has been developed to study the destabilization of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) by alpha particles and associated EP transport in the JET tokamak. In this work, the linear stability of AEs is discussed for the partial afterglow phase in a JET deuterium plasma discharge and for the full afterglow phase in a projected deuterium–tritium (DT) plasma. Thanks to recent upgrades in the tokamak transport code TRANSP, one can account for the contributions of different EP species to mode stability. Analysis of deuterium plasmas shows that AE growth rates are extremely sensitive to the energy and distribution of fast ions. An increase in fast ion energy can lead to more unstable AEs. In the afterglow phase of projected DT plasmas, it is EPs that mostly drive the AEs. However, the drive by alpha particles is comparable to that by beam ions and their contribution to the net growth rate might be hard to separate. According to the discussed projections, the destabilization of AEs might be ineffective because the background plasma damping significantly exceeds the EP drive. In this case, the development of an alternative plasma scenario that allows us to overcome such damping would be required in future experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Impacts of Renewable Electricity Deployment on Air Quality and Human Health in Southeast Asia Based on Aims III Scenarios

Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for death and disease worldwide, associated with millions of cases of excess deaths (mortality) each year. Although there are many pollutants in the air that affect our health, the most important class of pollutants is fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 , which are airborne particles of diameter ≤2.5 micrometers (µm). These particles are small enough to deposit deep in the respiratory system where they can then enter the bloodstream, traveling and causing damage to other bodily systems. Exposure to outdoor (ambient) PM 2.5 has been found to be the most important environmental risk factor for mortality in Southeast Asia, associated with 130,000 - 320,000 excess deaths in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in 2019. Southeast Asia, especially its mega-cities, but also other areas, has some of the worst air quality in the world. Almost all human activity emits air pollutants. Fine particulate matter is both directly emitted and formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions, the latter of which requires modeling to predict. Power generation is one of the major sources of air pollutants that lead to elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter, including in Southeast Asia. Fossil fuel combustion for power generation, especially coal but also diesel, is the main source of air pollutant emissions from power generation. While natural gas burns cleaner than coal or diesel, in the quantities combusted for power generation in Southeast Asia, it is also a significant emitter. This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what's known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. We then use for the first time a new global, reduced-complexity air quality model to transform the changes in emissions to changes in air pollutant concentration of the deadliest air pollutant for human health, fine particulate matter (or PM 2.5 ). The air quality model, Global InMAP, then utilizes the location of human population in ASEAN countries to calculate exposure to PM 2.5 concentration changes and translates that to estimates of excess mortality attributable to the AIMS III scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). Furthermore, we find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO 2 ). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗

DOE OSTI2025

A digital twin platform for building performance monitoring and optimization: Performance simulation and case studies

Advancements in sensor technology, data analytics, affordable compute, and communication infrastructure have paved the way for Digital Twin technology in optimizing building operations and controls. This study presents the development of an open and interoperable web-based Digital Twin platform for integrating diverse data streams and facilitating effective user interactions. The platform utilizes modern technologies for the web framework and time-series data management, ensuring scalability and responsiveness. The backend supports seamless integration of diverse data sources and emulators, incorporating data from building sensors and meters, external weather Application Programming Interfaces, and advanced EnergyPlus simulation models of the building and its energy systems including the Distributed Energy Resources that are formulated in Functional Mockup Units. A simulation case study was conducted with FlexLab, a test facility on Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory campus. The case study includes normal operations, Distributed Energy Resource integration, and power outage scenarios, to illustrate the Digital Twin’s ability to provide critical insights into energy performance and thermal resilience. The results demonstrated the platform’s potential as a decision-support tool for optimizing building energy performance and enhancing resilience against extreme weather events. Future work will focus on deploying the Digital Twin platform to a real building for field validation, extending its capabilities to cover more scenarios such as bidirectional Electric Vehicle interactions, and enhancing user engagement.

EnergyPlus↗

DOE OSTI2024

Results from a synthetic model of the ITER XRCS-Core diagnostic based on high-fidelity x-ray ray tracing

A high-fidelity synthetic diagnostic has been developed for the ITER core x-ray crystal spectrometer diagnostic based on x-ray ray tracing. This synthetic diagnostic has been used to model expected performance of the diagnostic, to aid in diagnostic design, and to develop engineering tolerances. The synthetic model is based on x-ray ray tracing using the recently developed xicsrt ray tracing code and includes a fully three-dimensional representation of the diagnostic based on the computer aided design. The modeled components are: plasma geometry and emission profiles, highly oriented pyrolytic graphite pre-reflectors, spherically bent crystals, and pixelated x-ray detectors. Plasma emission profiles have been calculated for Xe 44+ , Xe 47+ , and Xe 51+ , based on an ITER operational scenario available through the Integrated Modelling & Analysis Suite database, and modeled within the ray tracing code as a volumetric x-ray source; the shape of the plasma source is determined by equilibrium geometry and an appropriate wavelength distribution to match the expected ion temperature profile. All individual components of the x-ray optical system have been modeled with high-fidelity producing a synthetic detector image that is expected to closely match what will be seen in the final as-built system. Particular care is taken to maintain preservation of photon statistics throughout the ray tracing allowing for quantitative estimates of diagnostic performance.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗