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For interpreting observational data, and in particular for use in inverse methods, accurate and realistic chemical transport models are essential. Toward this end we have, in recent years, helped develop and utilize a number of three-dimensional models including the Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH).
Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.
The development of accurate reduced descriptions and improved closures for magnetic reconnection is an important and a long‐standing challenge in plasma physics. The four‐fluid approach, and associated closures, that were investigated have the potential to improve the accuracy of plasma fluid models, capturing physical effects which would otherwise require a kinetic description. If successful, this approach could have an important impact for the modeling of laboratory and space plasmas. The major goals of this project were to develop new machine learning (ML) tools based on sparse and symbolic regression techniques, and to extract interpretable and generalizable reduced models (e.g., in the form of partial differential equations - PDEs) from data generated by first principles plasma simulations. Preserving interpretability of such data‐driven models is key to addressing the long‐standing theoretical and numerical challenges. Prior proof‐of‐principle studies have demonstrated the enormous potential of this approach, by recovering the well‐established hierarchy of plasma equations (from Vlasov to MHD) from data produced by particle‐in‐cell (PIC) simulations. Our goal in this project was to extend and apply these new tools to construct better kinetic closures for magnetic reconnection; to derive better models of particle injection and acceleration by this fundamental plasma process; and to use this understanding to accelerate the development of multi‐scale plasma algorithms. While our immediate focus was on the problem of magnetic reconnection, the tools that were will developed are general and applicable to other areas of plasma physics, and more broadly to many‐body phenomena. We anticipate that the development of these multi‐scale models will have a significant impact across different areas of plasma science, from fusion to space and astrophysical plasmas.
Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.
A short analysis is presented of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) errors inherent in the directional models used for data interpretation. The models were all developed on the basis of experience with the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment, which had a spatial resolution one-third that of ERBE instrumentation. A pseudo-directional model is defined to simulate the ERBE scanner data, using the assumptions that the average radiant exitance for any particular scene is independent of the viewing geometry, geographic location and time the data is collected. The directionality of the view angle and solar zenith angle is accounted for by a method of bins.
A detailed numerical model of a chemisorption bed has been developed. The model is based on the constant pressure mass transport equation for gaseous flow through a packed bed, and the equation for diffusion and reaction within a spherical particle. Because there is a wealth of data from the NASA and the Navy bodies of literature, the LiOH-H2O-CO2 system is chosen for application of the model and interpretation of results. Prior models of this system from the life support literature are limited. The current model incorporates many of the features of elaborate models developed for investigation of industrial systems or energy applications (e.g., coal, desulphurization): it distinguishes bulk convection and bed dispersion; mass transport to the particle surface, transport within the particle, and reaction. It uses the nonsteady (not pseudo-steady state) form of the equations. The chemistry is modeled as a multi-step, reversible reaction with evolving solid structure. The resulting system of equations is large. The ODEPACK family of solvers is used to integrate the system. Reaction coefficients are determined by experiment. Typical results of the model are illustrated with mission input parameters. Using the model, an explanation is offered for 1) the varied performance results found after pre-breathing (or after simulated pre-breathe conditions), 2) interrupted use and 3) low temperature use. In addition, options for a reusable canister are explored. The computational resource implications of adding energy equations are discussed briefly, as are applicability to other relevant space and undersea systems.
Modernization of energy systems has led to in- creased interactions among multiple critical infrastructures and diverse stakeholders making the challenge of operational decision making more complex and at times beyond cognitive capabilities of human operators. The state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches show promise of supporting users with complex decision-making challenges, such as those occurring in our rapidly transforming cyber-physical energy systems. However, successful adoption of data-driven decision support technology for critical infrastructure will be dependent on the ability of these technologies to be trustworthy and contextually interpretable. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of implementing XAI for interpretable detection of cyberattacks in the energy system. Leveraging a proof-of-concept simulation use case of detection of a data falsification attack on a photovoltaic system using XGBoost algorithm, we demonstrate how Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a flavor XAI approach, can help provide contextual and actionable interpretation of cyberattack detection.
This paper describes an experiment that provides data for the development of a cognitive model of pilot flight navigation. The model views navigation as a process involving the alignment of mental images with the perceptual view out of the cockpit. The data support a three stage model: (1) the perceptual encoding of the map display, (2) mental rotation of the mental image, and (3) comparison of the image to the environment. The variables that significantly influence the processes embodied in the model in decreasing importance are: speed of processing, display sequencing, map complexity, and rotation angle of the map. The model can be used as a preliminary computational tool in predicting the navigational component of pilot situational awareness.
The interpretive evolution of the moon can be divided now into seven major stages beginning sometime near the end of the formation of the solar system. These stages and their approximate durations in time are as follows: (1) The Beginning: 4.6 billion years ago, (2) The Melted Shell: 4.6 to 4.4 billion years ago, (3) The Cratered Highlands: 4.4 to 4.1 billion years ago, (4) The Large Basins: 4.1 to 3.9 billion years ago, (5) The Light-colored Plains: 3.9 to 3.8 billion years ago, (6) The Basaltic Maria: 3.8 to 3.0(?) billion years ago, and (7) The Quiet Crust: 3.0(?) billion years ago to the present. The contributions of the Apollo and Luna exploration toward the study of those stages of evolution are reviewed.
New models of the topography of Mars and its gravity field from the Mars Global Surveyor mission are shedding new light on the structure of the planet and the state of isostatic compensation. Gravity field observations over the flat northern hemisphere plains show a number of anomalies at the 100 to 200 mGal level that have no apparent manifestation in the surface topography. We believe that these anomalies are probably the result of ancient impacts and represent regions of denser material buried beneath the outer depositional crust. Similar anomalies are also found in the region of the north polar ice cap even though a gravity anomaly resulting from the 3 km high icecap has not been uniquely identified. This leads us to speculate that the ice cap is largely compensated and is older than the timescale of isostatic compensation, about 10(exp 15) years.
Over geologic time-scales, large volumes of exogenic sulfur ions from Io's plasma torus have been supplied to the surface of Europa and Ganymede, which, combined with recent interpretations of orbiter images, dynamical modeling, and surface-subsurface exchange, suggests further sulfur transport into the interior of the icy worlds. These observations motivate mixed-phase spectral modeling for interpreting orbiter spectroscopy data and determination of hydration states of candidate surface materials including hydrous sulfates. In this work, we present a combined experimental and theoretical study of the low temperature and high pressure vibrational spectral signature of the iron-sulfate monohydrate endmember, szomolnokite (FeSO 4 ·H 2 O). By employing synchrotron Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in the diamond anvil cell up to 23 GPa and down to 20 K, we explore the extreme range of pressure-temperature domains relevant to icy environments throughout our solar system and beyond. Combined with our density-functional theory quantum-mechanics molecular dynamics results, we demonstrate that experimentally observed infrared features in the O-H stretching region commonly associated with nH 2 O (n > 1) hydration states can be attributed to a pure monohydrate without the need for pressure-induced exsolved ice, other coexisting hydrous iron sulfates, or strong overtone and combination modes. We further discuss the possibility of lateral variations in density and shear properties on icy worlds associated with temperature variations and the high-pressure phases of kieserite group monohydrated sulfates.
This paper presents some numerical experiments performed with the TFM to study the various wave components excited in the auroral regions that propagate through the thermosphere and lower atmosphere, and to demonstrate the properties of realistic source geometries. The model is applied to the interpretation of satellite measurements, and gravity waves seen in the thermosphere of Venus are discussed. Gravity waves are prominent in the terrestrial thermosphere polar region and can be excited by perturbations in Joule heating and Lorentz force due to magnetospheric processes. Observations from the Dynamics Explorer-2 satellite are used to illustrate the complexity of the phenomenon and to review the TFM that is utilized.
The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observation of M87∗ in 2018 has revealed a ring with a diameter that is consistent with the 2017 observation. The brightest part of the ring is shifted to the southwest from the southeast. In this paper, we provide theoretical interpretations for the multi-epoch EHT observations for M87∗ by comparing a new general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics model image library with the EHT observations for M87∗ in both 2017 and 2018. The model images include aligned and tilted accretion with parameterized thermal and nonthermal synchrotron emission properties. The 2018 observation again shows that the spin vector of the M87∗ supermassive black hole is pointed away from Earth. A shift of the brightest part of the ring during the multi-epoch observations can naturally be explained by the turbulent nature of black hole accretion, which is supported by the fact that the more turbulent retrograde models can explain the multi-epoch observations better than the prograde models. The EHT data are inconsistent with the tilted models in our model image library. Assuming that the black hole spin axis and its large-scale jet direction are roughly aligned, we expect the brightest part of the ring to be most commonly observed 90 deg clockwise from the forward jet. This prediction can be statistically tested through future observations.
mRNA levels of all genes in a genome is a critical piece of information defining the overall state of the cell in a given environmental condition. Being able to reconstruct such condition-specific expression in fungal genomes is particularly important to metabolically engineer these organisms to produce desired chemicals in industrially scalable conditions. Most previous deep learning approaches focused on predicting the average expression levels of a gene based on its promoter sequence, ignoring its variation across different conditions. Here we present FUN-PROSE—a deep learning model trained to predict differential expression of individual genes across various conditions using their promoter sequences and expression levels of all transcription factors. We train and test our model on three fungal species and get the correlation between predicted and observed condition-specific gene expression as high as 0.85. We then interpret our model to extract promoter sequence motifs responsible for variable expression of individual genes. We also carried out input feature importance analysis to connect individual transcription factors to their gene targets. A sizeable fraction of both sequence motifs and TF-gene interactions learned by our model agree with previously known biological information, while the rest corresponds to either novel biological facts or indirect correlations.
The DRM is a framework to interpret ecosystem process model output for 3D fire behavior model input and interpret the 3D fire behavior model output for ecosystem process model inpu
The best-performing approaches for scholarly document quality prediction are based on embedding models. In addition to their performance when used in classifiers, embedding models can also provide predictions even for words that were not contained in the labelled training data for the classification model, which is important in the context of the ever-evolving research terminology. Although model-agnostic explanation methods, such as Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations, can be applied to explain machine learning classifiers trained on embedding models, these produce results with questionable correspondence to the model. We introduce a new feature importance method, Self-Model Entities Rated (SMER), for logistic regression-based classification models trained on word embeddings. We show that SMER has theoretically perfect fidelity with the explained model, as the average of logits of SMER scores for individual words (SMER explanation) exactly corresponds to the logit of the prediction of the explained model. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation is performed through five diverse experiments conducted on 50,000 research articles (papers) from the CORD-19 corpus. In conclusion, through an AOPC curve analysis, we experimentally demonstrate that SMER produces better explanations than LIME, SHAP and global tree surrogates.
A review is conducted of studies performed during the Magsat project. The obtained data are considered, taking into account questions of data availability, aspects of orbit attitude determination, ionospheric noise, a field model, and an anomaly field presentation. Models for interpretation are discussed, giving attention to forward modeling, and equivalent layer inverse modeling. In an evaluation of rock property constraints, the magnetic bottom is discussed along with Curie points, metamorphism and magnetization, and the direction of magnetization.
The author gives a summary of the conference proceedings. The conference began with the presentation of the basic data sets on pairs, groups, and interacting galaxies with the latter being further discussed with respect to both global properties and properties of the galactic nuclei. Then followed the theory, modelling and interpretation using analytic techniques, simulations and general modelling for spirals and ellipticals, starbursts and active galactic nuclei. Before the conference the author wrote down the three questions concerning pairs, groups and interacting galaxies that he hoped would be answered at the meeting: (1) How do they form, including the role of initial conditions, the importance of subclustering, the evolution of groups to compact groups, and the fate of compact groups; (2) How do they evolve, including issues such as relevant timescales, the role of halos and the problem of overmerging, the triggering and enhancement of star formation and activity in the galactic nuclei, and the relative importance of dwarf versus giant encounters; and (3) Are they important, including the frequency of pairs and interactions, whether merging and interactions are very important aspects of the life of a normal galaxy at formation, during its evolution, in forming bars, shells, rings, bulges, etc., and in the formation and evolution of active galaxies? Where possible he focuses on these three central issues in the summary.